patrick.net

“Life’s full of hard choices, isn’t it?”
-Ursula the SeaWitch.
“The Little Mermaid”

ThreeBays says

1M to 2M is not very inflated. Iceland's data is consistent with IFR of 0.5%, and New York is looking closer to 1%.

You continually evade the question of how these people are diagnosed. PCR under reports folks who have been infected, as the method relies on the detection of viral DNA, which won't be around when your immune system clears out the virus. Symptoms as well under report.

C'mon, don't be a troll, out with the data.

rd6B says

Swedish are extremely bizarre leftoids/socialists who occasionally show a lot of common sense.

Yeah, funny how that works.

Being so polarized as we are has only one main benefit, and that is the oligarchs get a lot of what they want, by distracting us with bullshit.

Other than that, you might think the polarization is good for having less government, but it turns our even that isn't true.

More polarization, means less good government and more corrupt government, but it keeps us distracted while the owners fuck us (and themselves ) over.

marcus says

Yeah, funny how that works.

Mainly because their reaction is 180 degrees from San Fran, NYC, California, Michigan, and other US Blue States.

ThreeBays says

New York's antibody studies are going to be the best data we have for a while. Largest study with 7500 people, and a high rate of positive infection.

Coronavirus Antibodies Present In Nearly 25% Of All NYC Residents, Cuomo Says; Un-PAUSE In Certain Regions Of NY Might Begin In May
https://newyork.cbslocal.com/2020/04/27/coronavirus-antibodies-present-in-nearly-25-of-all-nyc-residents/

NoCoupForYou says

Mainly because

Being socialist, when the government intervenes it's more nuanced and measured. WE end up with a sledge hammer, over doing it, and not knowing how to transition out of it, with the politicization and polarization just making it all the more difficult. Everyone wants to vilify the other pole, too concerned with blame, and not wanting to let the other side have credit for solutions.

Trump Cultists are too married to one pole to comprehend what I'm talking about.

We've lost the ability to collectively make decisions. If NYT or Brietbart publishes an article with the perfect solution, half the country is not going to want to believe it.

Can you not see how fucked up that is ?

Sweden doesn't have this problem.

marcus says

Being socialist, when the government intervenes it's more nuanced and measured. WE end up with a sledge hammer, over doing it, and not knowing how to transition out of it, with the politicization and polarization just making it all the more difficult. Everyone wants to vilify the other pole and not let them have credit for solutions.

Trump Cultists are too married to one pole to comprehend what I'm talking about.

So you think hard Blue States in the USA are over-reacting? It's not Trump and the "Trumpets" pushing for endless quarantine of healthy people and not-at-risk kids or up to senior age adults.

marcus says

NoCoupForYou says

Mainly because

Being socialist, when the government intervenes it's more nuanced and measured. WE end up with a sledge hammer, over doing it, and not knowing how to transition out of it, with the politicization and polarization just making it all the more difficult. Everyone wants to vilify the other pole and not let them have credit for solutions.

Trump Cultists are too married to one pole to comprehend what I'm talking about.

We've lost the ability to collectively make decisions. If NYT or Brietbart publishes an article with the perfect solution, half the country is not going to want to believe it.

Can you not see how fucked up that is ?

Sweden doesn't have ourproblem.

So what? Just because the population is polarized doesn't mean the govt should decide for them. This is a free country - or at least supposed to be one of the freest. Let the people decide when and how they want to do business and work. No need for a perfect solution or model from either NYT or Breitbart. What's this obsessions with perfect solutions? Go with the math at hand, sure if suddenly people would start dropping dead like flies you can roll it back again and actually people may be more amenable to it. But there's almost a zero chance that that will happen and the dictatorial governors and mayors know that very well - they can't be that stupid - so it's malfeasance and TDS.

Great, Herd Immunity. Let the healthy people take the virulent strains and beat it down, then share the dead viruses with the less healthy and older that are self-quarantining.

Of course, what's actually happening is that the aged are futzing around grocery and drug stores out of curiousity, while the young and healthy are stuck at home jobless and/or out of school.

NoCoupForYou says

So you think hard Blue States in the USA are over-reacting? It's not Trump and the "Trumpets" pushing for endless quarantine of healthy people.

No, I think the quarantine was fine. But I think going forward, the right has latched on to the idea of opening the economy back up. It's like they jump on it like little children, "we get this position, this is our position."

They know it would soon be time to transition out of it, so any movement in that direction looks like a win for the right, even though it was obviously what needed to happen and it should happen in a rational way.

Our system is extremely broken, and we don't fucking know how to work together.

Think back to Obamacare. If republicans and democrats had worked together to find a truly optimal soulition, Obama would have gotten too much credit. THat might even mean another term. We can't have that (we did anyway).

This is not the same, and I have faith in democrats being ever so slightly less childish than republicans, but it's not enough. . Figuring out the best way to transition out of this should not be political, and I believe that republicans being on the side of sooner is better, works against it happening sooner, in the same way that democrats being in favor of good healthcare reform made it less possible.

Trump participates in this politicization by encouraging protests and states to be competitive about it. I'm just stepping back and observing how utterly broken our government is,.

All Trump can think about is winning. Instead of inviting bipartisan meetings and decision making on this that everyone can share credit for.

ThreeBays says

Dude, I share data all the time. NYC is based on the anti-body study, now with the 2nd stage done.

Thanks. Not sure what it means, compared to antibody tests in other regions. We don't know the composition of the 3000 random walk-ins. And as Wookieman pointed out, the sickest die off first.

Try running these numbers. Use the antibody positive percentages for each age range x number of NYC residents in that age range x deaths for each age range. You can find age demographics for NYC. I used a site which matched up perfectly for the three higher age ranges.

Here is what I found:

Fatality rate 75 and older: 7.6%.
Fatality rate 65-74: 3.4%
Fatality rate 45-63: 0.8%

I assume that it is even lower for the below 45 age groups.

Now one could theorize that younger folks are more ambulatory and likely to walk-in off the street to be tested, skewing the sampled population towards the healthy. And dead folks and folks in hospitals and nursing homes aren't going to be walk-ins.

I only did this once, after some decent cabernet, so errors are certainly possible. Run the numbers and see what you come up with.

https://newyork.areaconnect.com/statistics.htm
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/

marcus says

All Trump can think about is winning. Instead of inviting bipartisan meetings and decision making on this that everyone can share credit for.

That's not what I recall. I recall a stimulus package delayed at the last minute by Squad requests for controversial new programs and funding that had nothing to do with the virus or the economic fallout.

I recall a whiplash 180 from Fartwell and Pelosi and DeBlasio urging people to gather in large numbers to visit Chinatown festivities, demanding people use the subway as normal and not utilize private cars, and insinuating masks in public were Xenophobic over-reactions, to Trump didn't provide enough Hospital Ships/Ventilators/Masks. All of which turned out to be false; we never had a crisis, despite journalists rushing at the first sign of a crowded hospital. In fact, hospitals are experiencing layoffs as people delay procedures and tests during the Virus.

In fact, what are Democrats up to right now? Trying to give the full stimulus to people married to illegal aliens.

U.S. citizens or legal permanent residents who are married to illegal immigrants are not eligible to receive $1,200 stimulus payments under the $2.2 trillion CARES Act that Congress passed.

Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.) has introduced a bill to change that and allow each partner in a mixed status couple — legal and illegal — to receive coronavirus stimulus payments for a total of $2,400, if they filed joint tax returns.

Eligible recipients also receive $500 per child under 17 listed on their tax return for 2018 or 2019. The income ceiling for the full payments is $75,000 for single filers and $150,000 for joint filers.

Under the CARES Act, which passed the Democrat-led House of Representatives with a voice vote last month, anyone who filed a joint tax return with an illegal immigrant who uses a tax ID number in place of a Social Security number (SSN) is not eligible for the payments.

Omar's bill, titled the Recovery Rebates Improvement Act, would "amend the Internal Revenue Code of 1986 to allow 2020 recovery rebates for individuals filing a joint return if one spouse satisfies the valid identification number requirement."

https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/coronavirus/swedens-stay-open-approach-creating-herd-immunity-quickly-ambassador

ThreeBays says

Note "Fatality rate 45-63: 0.8%" -- those are crap odds don't you think? Remember the rightists trying to argue it's just 0.1% overall? We're probably looking at the need to isolate everyone over 45 or 50.

Is 45-63 the same as the entire population? What is the rate 0-17? 18-44?

“Using statistical methods, we are 95 percent certain the true amount of infection lies between 4.4 percent and 7.9 percent of the population,” Gimenez said. That means somewhere between 123,000 to 221,000 residents potentially have been infected by the virus.

https://www.local10.com/news/local/2020/04/24/miami-dade-mayor-um-researchers-discuss-initial-findings-of-covid-19-study/

We'll know in about a year, maybe in a few months, what the real rate of infection was - not just those who got tested, which is a small subset of all those infected.

ThreeBays says

What rightists have tried to argue is it's just 0.1% overall with a majority of that being 70+.

Not sure your point. The data hockey sticks by age. That's undeniable. The rate is unknown because not everyone has been tested. We do know it's not as bad as you think it is. The data has shown that. You keep going back to NYC, one of the worst hit spots. Why? And what does this have to do with right or left? It's a virus. You're showing your true colors here, which is fine. But you seem offended that anyone would question you. That seems weird?

ThreeBays says

NoCoupForYou says

ThreeBays says

Note "Fatality rate 45-63: 0.8%" -- those are crap odds don't you think? Remember the rightists trying to argue it's just 0.1% overall? We're probably looking at the need to isolate everyone over 45 or 50.

Is 45-63 the same as the entire population? What is the rate 0-17? 18-44?

It's lower in those ranges, but doesn't change my point.

What rightists have tried to argue is it's just 0.1% overall with a majority of that being 70+.

Those with crap odds and those staying on the safe side can stay in. What's your point? Also the total odds of dying are far less even if you give generous odds of contraction at 25% by going out totally careless. Then you have to subtract the odds of dying from anything else for that group and you probably end up with an additional 0.05% risk. Or 1 in 5000. You want to shut down the economy over that even there are easy measures to protect oneself?!

We need mass civil disobedience.

Patrick says

We need mass civil disobedience.

As a fellow bay area resident you must be equally stunned. I read that Bakersfield MDs are pressing for early reopening cause CA had so few symptomatic cases per MM capita yet a lot of exposure and those bay area leftist dictators just go the exact other way against all data. My worst case scenario was May 15 or so but end of May seems almost deliberate evil.

Yup, at this point it's just deliberate sabotage of the economy.

ThreeBays says

All the arguments against what I put up are contrarian opinions that aren't supported by facts and critical thinking. They also happen to be from rightists.

Your assumptions are wrong. I'm not right or left. I'd say I'm 40% left and 60% right. I'm nuanced enough to understand there's good and bad from both sides. I actually think that's the way most this site leans if you can believe it.

I've gotten in plenty of arguments over my more left leaning views with people here that I agree with 90% of the time. We're not all supposed to be the same. Argument and discord is what brings about progress. If we all agree on the same thing we're fucked.

ThreeBays says

Do you have the data? Do the Bakersfield MDs want us to be like New York?

For that, they would need to discharge COVID patients to nursing homes, which the Stunning and Brave NY D Gov Cuomo ordered via his bureaucrats...see below

Also, I'd better trust Norway health chief than random Patnet commentators who have shown some lack of scientific knowledge:

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/norway-health-chief-lockdown-was-not-needed-to-tame-covid

Camilla Stoltenberg, director of Norway’s public health agency, has given an interview where she is candid about the implications of this discovery. ‘Our assessment now, and I find that there is a broad consensus in relation to the reopening, was that one could probably achieve the same effect – and avoid part of the unfortunate repercussions – by not closing. But, instead, staying open with precautions to stop the spread.’ This is important to admit, she says, because if the infection levels rise again – or a second wave hits in the winter – you need to be brutally honest about whether lockdown proved effective.

And more...Dear of the Progressive Humanity Cuomo gave immunity to nursing home executives after big campaign donations,

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/may/26/andrew-cuomo-nursing-home-execs-immunity

A few excerpts:

"People are 7.5 times more likely to die from Covid-19 in states with corporate legal immunity"

"In March, Cuomo’s administration issued an order that allowed nursing homes to readmit sick patients without testing them for Covid-19. Amid allegations of undercounted casualties, the governor also pushed back against pressure to have state regulators more stringently record and report death rates in nursing homes."

thomasdong1776 says

As of May 19, Sweden had more coronavirus deaths per capita than any other country in Europe, according to the Financial Times.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1104709/coronavirus-deaths-worldwide-per-million-inhabitants/

Your stats are lies. Sweden is smack in the middle of European averages.

rd6B says

Also, I'd better trust Norway health chief than random Patnet commentators who have shown some lack of scientific knowledge:

Actually some Patnet commenters have been pretty spot on in comparison to the experts. As of now this is more of a math equation than a health one. Therapeutics and vaccines will be part of this in the future, but it's simply a numbers game right now until those come on line.

Cases in those 60 and under, for the most part, are completely inconsequential with a small percentage getting hospitalized and a massively smaller percentage dying. That's like 2/3rd's of humans on the planet. When we get to that final 1/3 demographic, even the cases are generally not that big of a deal. We know the sector we need to protect and it's an easy enough thing to do. And that's where the resources should be put instead of taking away everyone's livelihood and support completely unproductive people for the most part.

I'm finally in a good mood. Just got the email that local restaurants are going to be opening up. Al fresco style, but I'll fucking take it. Might be kind of fun, they're shutting down a block to allow for outside eating in the middle of the street. Sidewalks are too narrow. Could make for some fun nights since I can walk to my small downtown.

WookieMan says

Actually some Patnet commenters have been pretty spot on in comparison to the experts.

not the ones who advocate permanent shutdowns and praise the glory of progressive governors

thomasdong1776 says

As of May 19, Sweden had more coronavirus deaths per capita than any other country in Europe, according to the Financial Times. Sweden’s death rate soared well above the neighboring Scandinavian countries that mandated their people stay at home: While Sweden has more than 3,300 excess deaths—a figure calculated comparing the number of deaths during the same time frame last year—Denmark had 300, while Norway and Finland had fewer than 100 each, according to the New York Times. Iceland’s death toll after its lockdown has been an impressive 11 times lower than the current figures in Sweden. These numbers make it clear: Sweden’s risky bet on keeping their economy open—placing its faith on the concept of herd immunity—wasn’t worth the hand.

https://www.ft.com/content/46733256-5a84-4429-89e0-8cce9d4095e4

Once again infections and thus deaths are mostly a function of population density and age/comorbidites, so let's see what we have here: Sweden 24/km^2, Iceland: 3/km^2. Icelands death toll 11 x lower than Sweden. Notice a pattern here? Oh let's look at avg. age as well. Iceland 36, Sweden: 42. FFS when will leftoid politcians and the lamestream media admit they were wrong on all counts wrt the lockdowns. Open up now!

50% of all US Cases happened in LTC Facilities, though occupants are only 1.5% of the US Population.

NoCoupForYou says

50% of all US Cases happened in LTC Facilities, though occupants are only 1.5% of the US Population.

this clearly shows that ORANGEMAN BAD, HATES SENIOR CITIZENS

rd6B says

WookieMan says

Actually some Patnet commenters have been pretty spot on in comparison to the experts.

not the ones who advocate permanent shutdowns and praise the glory of progressive governors

Well, I don't censor anything that isn't personally attacking the other users, or illegal for good reasons.

If they make things illegal because they are "offensive" then I will go down with this site. Fuck that. First Amendment forever!

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-sweden-mortality/sweden-records-first-week-with-no-excess-mortality-since-pandemic-struck-idUSKBN23F1WK?utm_source=reddit.com

STOCKHOLM (Reuters) - Sweden last week recorded no excess mortality compared to the average of the past five years for the first time since COVID-19 struck a country whose death toll in the pandemic has eclipsed that of its neighbours, statistics showed on Monday. ...

The agency said the only demographic with excess mortality in Sweden last week were people aged 90 and above. ...

Unlike most other countries in western Europe, Sweden opted against a full lockdown, keeping most schools and nearly all businesses open while seeking to leverage mostly voluntary restrictions and recommendations on social distancing.

NoCoupForYou says

50% of all US Cases happened in LTC Facilities, though occupants are only 1.5% of the US Population.

Deaths maybe, but cases I seriously doubt that

Personally I hope that Sweden is/was right but its not at all clear that they were/are. here is the other side.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/williamhaseltine/2020/06/04/a-warning-from-sweden/#73f8f1fc4c56
A Warning From Sweden’s Coronavirus Response
William A. Haseltine

The answer is simple. Sweden was lax in its implementation of protective measures in the face of the outbreak, refusing to implement broad stay at home orders for residents, or to enforce recommendations to wear masks or social distancing measures. Other than the government decision to shut down universities and high schools, compliance to public health recommendations was entirely voluntary.

Early on, my Swedish friends seemed proud of their exceptionalism. They sent many of their children to school without many of the protections that are both in place and under consideration in many other countries. Outside the country, many voiced their praise of Sweden’s “common sense” approach, which they wagered would be less economically destructive than stricter measures and would not lead to any greater number of deaths.

They were wrong. Even the chief architect of the Swedish anti-coronavirus plan is able to admit it. In an interview translated by Reuters, Sweden’s chief epidemiologist told Swedish radio that the country clearly could have done better in fighting the virus and that there was “quite obviously a potential for improvement in what we have done.” In particular, he said Sweden should have started testing earlier and more extensively and they should have done more to protect older adults in Sweden’s long term care centers, where more than half of all Sweden’s coronavirus-deaths have occurred.

For all the loss Swedes have endured, there has been no associated economic gain, which is what many claimed was the saving grace of the Swedish approach. According to the European Commission, Sweden’s economic forecast of a 6% reduction in GDP for 2020 is on par with its neighbors, Norway and Denmark who implemented much stricter lockdown measures.

Sweden’s story is a lesson for all of us around what happens when we pull back on social distancing and prudent epidemic control measures. Here in the United States, our epidemic control measures were already relatively relaxed, accounting for our near steady rate of about 20,000 newly diagnosed Covid-19 cases per day for more than two months.

The data from Sweden tells us what is likely to happen next—an ever-accelerating increase in the rate of infection followed by a rising death toll. That, in turn, is very likely to be followed by continued restrictions on public gatherings, school openings, and public confidence in our government’s ability to protect us.

With Operation Warp Speed, one can’t help but wonder if perhaps the plan is to pin all hopes on a vaccine rather than use the public health tools we know can work to control the pandemic. If that is the case, we should be aware that our hope in a vaccine is far brighter than preliminary public data suggests it should be. The current generation of vaccines are likely to offer only partial protection, and likely only to some of us not all. With the new vaccines will come new risks, and unknown safety profiles.

As we contemplate easing public health measures even further thanks to unfounded hope in a vaccine, I ask each of us to contemplate whether the Swedish example is showing us what we will be risking with this approach—our lives, our economy, and our children.

You can't "fight" a virus. You can only try and limit the number of people exposed to it at any given time. When the cost of doing that outweighs the benefits it's time to forget about it and let nature run its course. That's why Sweden was right, the amount of people dying and economically destroyed from the lockdown response is far greater that then potential lives saved.

I’m probably repeating Mell.

The total number of dead per 100,000 may eventually be the same in most countries since respiratory diseases spread easily (compared to AIDS for example).

Slowing the spread of any disease is a good idea until it disrupts society so much that the cure is worse than the disease.

The creation of a vaccine could interrupt the spread significantly so it is possible that where it’s used the spread is very slow.

Watching the reaction from the usual idiots, it’s clear that there’s a political component to some reaction to the “pandemic” which largely left healthy young people unscathed.

I’m cautious because I am borderline geezer and higher risk.

Maybe I will wear a mask on airplanes forever, I don’t know.

rdm says

NoCoupForYou says

50% of all US Cases happened in LTC Facilities, though occupants are only 1.5% of the US Population.

Deaths maybe, but cases I seriously doubt that

WTF is with the focus on cases?? Everyone fucking gets sick. If you don't die, who gives a shit? I don't get this. If 7B people get sick and only 1k die, who in the flying fuck cares???? Stop with the new case stuff. It doesn't matter.

WTF is with the focus on cases??

Because that is all they got.

HeadSet says

WTF is with the focus on cases??

Because that is all they got.

I understand what you're saying, but WTF do they got/have? We have a no vaccine virus that kills double the people that the flu does. So people get flu like symptoms and they don't die generally. Are there people out there that fucking dumb to not see the data? I know there's propaganda, but this is just getting batshit crazy at this point.

With each day that I get older, I realize that almost everyone is dumb as fuck. If you have a brain and can use it, you'd know this virus is a complete nothing burger. People can take their phased openings and masks shove them up their fucking ass. Sorry, I'm back in IL and it pisses me off after living normal for the last 3 days up in Wisconsin. I was supposed to be in Mexico right now, so I'm even more pissed than usual, lol.

WookieMan says

With each day that I get older, I realize that almost everyone is dumb as fuck. If you have a brain and can use it, you'd know this virus is a complete nothing burger. People can take their phased openings and masks shove them up their fucking ass. Sorry, I'm back in IL and it pisses me off after living normal for the last 3 days up in Wisconsin. I was supposed to be in Mexico right now, so I'm even more pissed than usual, lol.

Now, tell us what you really think.

Do Swedes always get blond hair on their palms when they masturbate?

Ceffer says

Do Swedes always get blond hair on their palms when they masturbate?

Nah, those are just strands of fiber that remain from "the glove."