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Bay Area Real Estate and Corona Virus

By BayArea follow BayArea   2020 Apr 4, 9:10pm 612 views   9 comments   watch   nsfw   quote   share    


Hi guys,

As you all know, the stock market decline was sharp and steep in the month of March.

Real estate typically moves in the same direction, although it’s delayed because real estate cycles are much longer than executing an online stock trade.

The month of March recorded record unemployment applications at 10 million, and we are just getting started.

Buyers are backing out of real estate sales, sellers are pulling listing, many appraisers aren’t working, some lenders aren’t even giving loans right now, inventories are low.

Based on the institute of health models that were referenced in today’s White House press conference, Corona daily deaths in CA will peak on April 26th and then begin to ramp down until hitting steady state in early August:

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

https://sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com/2020/04/03/coronavirus-outbreak-having-chilling-effect-on-san-francisco-bay-areas-real-estate-market/

This all tells me that the residential real estate market will be affected and we are likely to see some evidence of this in late Q2/early Q3.

I think 2H-2020 may be a good time to purchase a home. What do you all think?
1   B.A.C.A.H.   ignore (0)   2020 Apr 4, 9:27pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

It's all about one's ability to pay, for the duration.

Not a problem for a Princeling or Princessling.

For the rest of us, it's about our confidence to make the payments, including the Property Tax Pension Funding payments, which come every twice a year, and unlike a loan, can never be paid off.

Or, as a backup plan, our ability to find a Greater Fool to sell to, hopefully the tsunami of Princelings didn't ebb by then.

BTW folks are "working from home". It's only a matter of time when employers realize "home" can be somewhere else with cheaper housing and so cheaper workers (who even though cheaper may be less stressed and so more productive). Somewhere else like Boise or Bangor or Bangalore.

Bay Area real estate is and will be a Confidence Game.
2   BayArea   ignore (1)   2021 Jan 1, 7:35am     ↓ dislike (1)   quote   flag      

Wow

Although I predicted rents in metro cities cratering I never saw that single family homes in suburbia would be skyrocketing
3   Dholliday126   ignore (0)   2021 Jan 1, 7:55am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Real estate is very local
4   clambo   ignore (5)   2021 Jan 1, 8:27am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

BACAH makes good points.
I think most people try to live near their job, although the Bay Area has some nice attributes, views and weather come to mind.
I too wonder how someone decides to commit to mortgage payments and property taxes.
Cities are rotting from the inside out; the government pays financial incentives to the poor to reproduce, creating an ever larger underclass of hoes, single mothers, gangbangers, and sundry losers.
The government then forces developers to build housing for the growing underclass.
It’s never ending, it’s getting worse, and if you object you are a racist or a Nazi.
My solution is find the cheapest place in the whitest town and keep my fingers crossed, and my passport valid.
5   BayArea   ignore (1)   2021 Jan 1, 8:38pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

clambo says
My solution is find the cheapest place in the whitest town and keep my fingers crossed, and my passport valid.




Where is that?
6   Rb6d   ignore (0)   2021 Jan 1, 8:50pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

BayArea says
clambo says
My solution is find the cheapest place in the whitest town and keep my fingers crossed, and my passport valid.




Where is that?

Amarillo, TX. Boring as hell tho
7   clambo   ignore (5)   2021 Jan 1, 9:19pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

White towns in Florida I have seen : Vero Beach, Hobe Sound, Stuart, Jensen Beach, Juno Beach, Jupiter, Palm Beach gardens.
There are likely others which are not bad.
8   HeadSet   ignore (2)   2021 Jan 2, 6:00am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

clambo says
White towns in Florida I have seen : Vero Beach, Hobe Sound, Stuart, Jensen Beach, Juno Beach, Jupiter, Palm Beach gardens.
There are likely others which are not bad.


Does your definition of "white" include Cuban? Nothing against Cubans at all, I like them. Of the Cubans I know in Jupiter and Coral Gables, I noticed that Cuban men like Trump while the Cuban woman do not.
9   BayArea   ignore (1)   2021 Jan 2, 6:12am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Cuban women will like who they are told to like.

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