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Where would you invest in Northern California today with the highest return?


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2012 Aug 30, 10:13am   22,456 views  45 comments

by BayArea   ➕follow (1)   💰tip   ignore  

Hi folks,

For the past 9 months or so I've been hunting for real estate rentals in the Bay Area. I've primarily been looking in the Concord/Pittsburg/Bay-Point areas.

My criteria is less than $250K, near a BART Station, 3+ bedrooms. 9 months ago it seemed like there was more inventory and recently the prices have really been squeezed up discouraging me from continuing to look in these areas. As a result, I've started looking at other areas but could use some guidance.

I know the investment gurus typically don't like to share their secrets, but I'm wondering if anyone can recommend any areas in northern CA. I'm looking at this from two angles. The first is return from rent and the second is equity upside (ie: a house in Concord will appreciate faster than a house in the central valley for instance).

From this Redfin plot, it's indicating a market surge of ~16% in 2012 for Concord, CA.

#housing

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25   Facebooksux   2012 Aug 31, 4:30am  

PockyClipsNow says

Half the people on this board think if you 'make money its wrong and you are a crook'.


I would say to these people: consider adopting capitalism.


These guys flipping houses are not crooks but actual job creators. carpet installers, painters, tile guys, ecrow people, termite inspectors, realtors, bank employees, federal employees at FHA,Fannie,Freddie - they all need a robust healthy market with high transaction volume or they dont get paid.


The governement is BEGGING PEOPLE to buy/rent/flip - that why rates are 3% on mortgages.


The fact tha eman has a 'credit partner' just means he is a deal finder and either takes a flat fee for a deal or he invests a bit of his cash or some other other equity sharing deal.


Its open to anyone. We can all hunt for deals every day if we want to. E-man should be applauded. I might partner with him if he were in los angeles. (1% CD rates is killing me!)

E-Man is openly professing that he's Ok from walking away from his financial obligations and stiffing his creditors and you're making it sound like it's the second coming of Adam Smith?

Well, dipshit, I've got some news for you.

Just who the fuck do you think ends up paying the tab for all those writedowns?

This is the same crap that got us into this situation in the first place and all it's gonna cause is more misery and financial ruin.

AF and I are gonna have our sights on you when Cannibal Anarchy comes.

26   EBGuy   2012 Aug 31, 5:00am  

FBsux says: E-Man is openly professing that he's Ok from walking away from his financial obligations and stiffing his creditors and you're making it sound like it's the second coming of Adam Smith?

If E-man walks immediately after closing (or anytime before refinancing) he loses his $55k downpayment. If he walks after refinancing (takes all the cash out but maintains 75% LTV if the house appraises at $300k) that is the banks fault for not appropriately valuing the property (and as a rental, the income stream). No one has been conned. Everyone needs to calm down.

27   dublin hillz   2012 Aug 31, 7:31am  

Helloeeze says

If you take that same 50K in put it in a low cost, diversified fund, like, say Wellesley Income Fund, you will make about the same (or more) over a ten-year period by just sitting on your bum and doing nothing.

I couldn't agree more. I think from that standpoint of risk/reward/effort, investing in a broad market bond fund or high yield bond fund is much better proposition than rental real estate. Heck, even REIT fund is better.

28   Eman   2012 Aug 31, 8:26am  

kpinna says

By the way, I don't think people would pay more than $2000 rent when mortgages are so much cheaper. I'm paying $1600 for a 4-bedroom house but got a good deal as a single female writer who does all the maintenance and minor fixes. The renters next door have paid $1800 for years, and I see homes advertised for $1700 to $2200.

kpinna,

Thanks for the heads up. Like I said, we don't know much about the area. I guess we'll find out the hard way. :)

29   Eman   2012 Aug 31, 8:39am  

Helloeeze says

If you take that same 50K in put it in a low cost, diversified fund, like, say Wellesley Income Fund, you will make about the same (or more) over a ten-year period by just sitting on your bum and doing nothing.

Helloeeze,

Thanks for engaging in a civil debate rather than speaking with emotion like some others. Our intention is to pull out all or most of our money after 1 year. By then, we're no longer having any investment in that house. The PITI will be less than $1,500/month, and the tenant is paying down the mortgage over $300/month.

With the net positive cashflow, we intend to buy mREITs, which are paying 12% to 15% dividend annually. That's what we have in mind at the moment, but things might change. How do you think that stacks up against your mutual fund investment?

Also, 4.125% to 4.25% no points no costs on the loan. Home is in move-in condition, but we will likely put some lipstick on that pig.

I was taught that there is no right way; there is no wrong way; there is always a better way to invest or do things. I'm still trying to figure out the "better" way to put food on the table for my family. It hasn't been easy, but I'm trying my best. I don't know what I don't know wouldn't you agree?

Cheers.

30   Eman   2012 Aug 31, 8:40am  

Darrell In Phoenix says

E-man says

We pick up a property for $220k. It's worth $300k.

No. It's worth $220k. Exactly what you paid for it.

You're absolutely correct. I can't argue with you there.

31   Eman   2012 Aug 31, 8:53am  

Facebooksux says

E-Man is openly professing that he's Ok from walking away from his financial obligations and stiffing his creditors and you're making it sound like it's the second coming of Adam Smith?

Well, dipshit, I've got some news for you.

Just who the fuck do you think ends up paying the tab for all those writedowns?

This is the same crap that got us into this situation in the first place and all it's gonna cause is more misery and financial ruin.

AF and I are gonna have our sights on you when Cannibal Anarchy comes.

I have to look out for the best interest of my family. If SHTF like some of you is envisioning, I have more things to worry about than keeping those depreciating assets. I pay taxes too so I guess I'm screwing myself over too. I guess it's not worth discussing with you if you don't understand how risk and reward work.

32   Eman   2012 Aug 31, 9:02am  

Bay Area,

If you're interested on how to seek out these deals, shoot me an email and I will share with you my approach.

33   Eman   2012 Aug 31, 9:21am  

PockyClipsNow says

Half the people on this board think if you 'make money its wrong and you are a crook'.

This reminds me of what Mitt Romney said yesterday and I'm paraphrasing here. People are apologizing for their success rather than celebrate it. I guess the guy has been attacked by the media for his success so it's time to strike back. ;o)

34   Eman   2012 Aug 31, 9:45am  

Squatting in East CoCo says

Lots of houses for sale in El Sobrante.

Squatting,

I just went on Redfin, and there are 14 SFHs that are active on the market. Like I said above, I don't know anything about the area. My partner and I can get slaughter on this deal, but we have a back up plan going in. So fingers crossed.

35   groundhogdaze   2012 Aug 31, 2:27pm  

E-man says

This reminds me of what Mitt Romney said yesterday and I'm paraphrasing here. People are apologizing for their success rather than celebrate it. I guess the guy has been attacked by the media for his success so it's time to strike back. ;o)

Learn from your victory. Prosper from your failure.

Speaking of Romney, I was watching Eastwood's speech and I could relate. Everyone's got an invisible rabbit friend. Frank and Harvey are common names for invisible rabbits but Eastwood's got one named Obama. I once got a perfect score on my math test with the help of my invisible rabbit friend. Everyone knows that one thing rabbits really like to do is to multiply. That and sit invisibly in chairs and telling people to go F themselves. Now back to our regular scheduled programming...

36   crazylikeafox   2012 Sep 1, 10:18am  

E-Man,

I think you are doing great investing in real estate now. Aren't we all try to beat the system and want to become financial independent?

I would love to learn from you. I'm currently looking properties in Las Vegas. If possible, can we discuss further via email?

Thanks.

37   dhmartens   2012 Sep 1, 8:22pm  

Finally a very simple question I can answer, Richmond will offer the greatest monetary reward over time.

To enjoy life now and advance your spiritual wealth, Southern Marin, Berkeley, and the Marina, San Mateo for some.

38   37108605   2012 Sep 1, 9:11pm  

I know this place is a bit well, no other way to say it, loopy and wacked out at times I presume it is the nature of the beast. However, I must say I have a real serious problem with this title "Where would you invest in Northern California today with the highest return?" or these greedy fucking phrases like "money reward."

In my opinion it is precisely THAT bullshite mentality (which I trans. as: make that buck find that hidden buck in that property and milk it,) that I feel got the country and real estate in the fucking economic mess it is in right now.

39   Goran_K   2012 Sep 2, 2:48am  

Wow. Richmond California. Why not throw West Oakland in the mix too?

40   B.A.C.A.H.   2012 Sep 2, 3:16am  

Ah yes, Richmond Real Estate. Part of my portfolio. Or at least, the part of Richmond that belongs to CVX. It's a nice position with a positive cash flow (15% federal rate at least for time being) , steady increase in valuation keeping ahead of inflation. No tenants to depend on. Legal liability buffered by the overall massive size of the corporate parent. Hyper liquidity, sub-leasable, and yes, for folks like eman, leverage-able. Wash rules are fairly liberal, providing opportunity for tax-managing some loss positions.

But its kind of humility to be a small fish in a big pond of a billion or so shares. If I were a coveting kind of person, well maybe something like shares is too intangible for my personal values. And then I don't have the opportunity to attach "Lord" (as in LandLord) to my identity.

41   dhmartens   2012 Sep 2, 10:34am  

Several possible future outcomes could make Richmond the highest return.
1) Gentrification - Old mellow hippies move in
2) Legalizing Marijuana - reduces violent crime
3) Chevron plant modification, or closure - creates jobs or makes a great new park
4) Ufo disclosure - Quick commute to future StarFleet headquarters

42   37108605   2012 Sep 14, 6:14pm  

Darrell In Phoenix says

E-man says

We pick up a property for $220k. It's worth $300k.

No. It's worth $220k. Exactly what you paid for it.

This thread is another example of the lunacy. Untill people realise a house is not an investment or a money making machine the shite will never end.

43   37108605   2012 Sep 14, 6:16pm  

B.A.C.A.H. says

Ah yes, Richmond Real Estate. Part of my portfolio. Or at least, the part of Richmond that belongs to CVX. It's a nice position with a positive cash flow (15% federal rate at least for time being) , steady increase in valuation keeping ahead of inflation. No tenants to depend on. Legal liability buffered by the overall massive size of the corporate parent. Hyper liquidity, sub-leasable, and yes, for folks like eman, leverage-able. Wash rules are fairly liberal, providing opportunity for tax-managing some loss positions.

But its kind of humility to be a small fish in a big pond of a billion or so shares. If I were a coveting kind of person, well maybe something like shares is too intangible for my personal values. And then I don't have the opportunity to attach "Lord" (as in LandLord) to my identity.

CRINGE I hate to inform you the language of your post is so robotic, so fucking corporate it just makes me want to BARF.

44   37108605   2012 Sep 14, 6:20pm  

Facebooksux says

Well, dipshit, I've got some news for you.

Just who the fuck do you think ends up paying the tab for all those writedowns?

This is the same crap that got us into this situation in the first place and all it's gonna cause is more misery and financial ruin.

They will learn the hard way. It all comes back ten fold.

45   37108605   2012 Sep 14, 6:25pm  

PockyClipsNow says

Half the people on this board think if you 'make money its wrong and you are a crook'.

I would say to these people: consider adopting capitalism.

No what half the people are against here is not making money they are against making money by hook "or by CROOK" as in causing society economic harm by making money anyway shape or form. Making money takes two routes. The routes being criticised here are those doing "whatever it takes and screwing whomever" just to make a BUCK ...that is both unethical and wrong. As when someone takes out major debt they cannot afford just to fuel their "I am rich" fantasies, when they know they cannot pay it off if their gamble hits the fan, and without responsibility or ethics knows damn well they plan to walk on that debt if all goes bust. I as a tax payer am paying for their shite.

So as regards your half-arse statement of
"Half the people on this board think if you 'make money its wrong and you are a crook'. I would say to these people: consider adopting capitalism."

I would say you are full of shite (ban me Patrick for insults I don't give a fuck because half of these people turn my stomach.)

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