patrick.net

I'll buy some sort of funds when I'm older. I'm only halfway to early retirement. I'm definitely too old for risky shit but there was a time that was the correct choice.

Lots of the big name wealthy people say diversification is for suckers. I hear a lot on business news say don't try to time the market. I agree with the former if you are young.

I got into the dot-com late. I was quite poor too. I made a great percentage in that last year of run up and got out early except for two companies that I kept that went under. Overall I made out.

I invested heavily (percentage wise because I was still basically poor) in the run up to the housing market crash. I got out early and kept my money. I don't recall if I beat the market. There really weren't a lot of indexes back then to compare to. I wasn't poor anymore.

I invested heavily in the next run up and again, by picking stocks. I got out early. Very early. Way too early. But I got out up over 1000%. Indexes that had now become popular wouldn't have done that for me. Rolled a lot of that over into Real Estate investments, a 500K house down payment and the retirement accounts are all set and waiting to take advantage of some sort of reset.

Other reasons I'm not in and am just going to wait for a pullback:

1. Algorithms: It used to be you could do things like, "buy on the rumor, sell on the news" and use other heuristics but not so much anymore.
2. This is no longer a market. I guess that ended in the 80s but really came into being the past decade.

The market we're in right now to me just seems like a fucking house of mirrors casino where the odds are stacked up against you more than a regular casino would be yet the owners WANT you to win so they keep printing more poker chips.

I just psychologically have an issue with investing in something like that. Or to continue investing a the 'Fed put' anyway. I have 250K I could use that is in retirement funds that wouldn't affect my house down payment but it's just going to sit there for a bit. I understand there is a shit ton of money sitting in American retirement accounts like that waiting to invest on a reset. Would have been nice if the Fed didn't get in the way.

I do still do a bit of swing trading along the lines of the method this guy uses:

www.youtube.com/embed/FBfwik6YpPo&t=628s

Just using 25K and I'm in-n-out. I make one or a few hundred here and there. I sleep well.

I forgot to mention... What I'm hoping for is some sort of major pull back for the retirement account. Then I figure I'd try out Rin's suggestion and select some dividend aristocrats then evaluate them each year, pruning / buying. There is a fund I like too come to think of it: ARKK

I mentioned that over Valentines day weekend not expecting him to buy it buy my Dad has made out great!

I haven't bought a tech stock since the 90s.

Wow, call me a moron, refute none of my points, admit you don’t even know if you beat the market, then admit you haven’t bought a tech stock since the 90s... whatever dude.

ignoreme says

Wow, call me a moron, refute none of my points

You refuted your own damn point when you called me an insufferable code monkey. If any code monkey can beat your strategy simply by buying Amazon your strategy is shit. Yes, I beat the market over the last decade can't you even read? Moron.

ignoreme says

code monkeys who understand nothing about investing

Time to reveal what kind of monkey you are.

A black one. The white ones are racist. Duh.

I'm getting antsy to short TSLA.... its at 1715 today. Holy shit, look at that 1yr

From my understanding TSLA all depends on its next Q earnings and whether those earnings (3rd straight positive) will qualify them for the SP500 and therefore must be bought be indices/ETFs. Seems a little too binary to short.

I’m back in. Trump is gonna win and it’s gonna bump stocks up as people know the devastating lockdowns are done for good. Good day for investing!

Shaman says

I’m back in. Trump is gonna win and it’s gonna bump stocks up as people know the devastating lockdowns are done for good. Good day for investing!

Just my take, but I think we go sideways for a Trump 2nd term. This Covid BS is an issue for sure. It's unavoidable. Money usually spent wasn't and cannot be made up regardless of the business and personal bailout.

Shaman says

I’m back in. Trump is gonna win and it’s gonna bump stocks up as people know the devastating lockdowns are done for good. Good day for investing!

Reading the original post and now this. How much did you lose?

Shaman says

I’m back in. Trump is gonna win and it’s gonna bump stocks up as people know the devastating lockdowns are done for good. Good day for investing!

And it’s just as likely that he’ll lose or something else and it will go down tomorrow and you’re getting back in at exactly the wrong time.

I took a lot of crap in this thread previously for saying just to let it ride in index funds. Hope this real life example illustrates why that is correct advice.

Shaman says

Trump is gonna win and it’s gonna bump stocks up

I hope you're right, homie.

BayArea says

Reading the original post and now this. How much did you lose?

Got out at DoW 26,000, not much change from today’s result.

Hircus says

I'm getting antsy to short TSLA.... its at 1715 today. Holy shit, look at that 1yr

Hope you didn’t short it. From one happy Tesla owner and shareholder. I’ve been taking money from the TSLA shorts. Long TSLA.

Shaman says

BayArea says

Reading the original post and now this. How much did you lose?

Got out at DoW 26,000, not much change from today’s result.

Lucky man. You could have really been fucked with that selling and buying... trying to time markets

You can't time assets, you just need to be in them. Unless you like getting fucked by inflation...

Dholliday126 says

You can't time assets, you just need to be in them. Unless you like getting fucked by inflation...

Depends, for the regular side/hobby trader that is likely true. However if you're willing to invest most of the full 10 hours (incl. AH) into the market action (since everyone is WFH anyways) or you can automate certain patterns then you can make a lot of money every day, esp. in a volatile market as right now. In the past weeks there have been numerous days where one could turn a few k loss into a few k green for select stocks within minutes. I expect volatility to continue or even grow in the current climate.

mell says

you can automate certain patterns then you can make a lot of money every day, esp. in a volatile market as right now.

Swing trading weather baby!

Hircus says

I'm getting antsy to short TSLA.... its at 1715 today. Holy shit, look at that 1yr

How about buying puts instead of shorting? Then your downside is limited to what you buy them at, but the upside is the same.

I tripled my money on TSLA and got out because I thought it was overvalued, then it doubled. I really don't understand it, but shouldn't complain.

Patrick says

Hircus says

I'm getting antsy to short TSLA.... its at 1715 today. Holy shit, look at that 1yr

How about buying puts instead of shorting? Then your downside is limited to what you buy them at, but the upside is the same.

I tripled my money on TSLA and got out because I thought it was overvalued, then it freaking quadrupled. I really don't understand it, but shouldn't complain.

I made some money on TSLA puts after the "funding secured" $420 tweet. The basic problem is that the puts are very expensive — put writers know there's a reasonable danger of a crash. If a $400 strike costs you $100, the company needs to go down to $300 before you even just recoup the purchase price. To justify the risk of expiring worthless, you want to believe the company will go to $100 or $200 in short order.

mell says

Dholliday126 says

You can't time assets, you just need to be in them. Unless you like getting fucked by inflation...

Depends, for the regular side/hobby trader that is likely true. However if you're willing to invest most of the full 10 hours (incl. AH) into the market action (since everyone is WFH anyways) or you can automate certain patterns then you can make a lot of money every day, esp. in a volatile market as right now. In the past weeks there have been numerous days where one could turn a few k loss into a few k green for select stocks within minutes. I expect volatility to continue or even grow in the current climate.

I pay a money guy, I don't have the time nor discipline to do it myself.

SunnyvaleCA says

If a $400 strike costs you $100, the company needs to go down to $300 before you even just recoup the purchase price.

True. Options is a tough game played by smart people, but at least the downside is capped. When you short, you can really get taken to the cleaners.