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Stocks - I’m out!

By Shaman follow Shaman   2020 Jun 18, 9:57am 2,976 views   165 comments   watch   nsfw   quote   share    


Bad shit coming down the pipe. Get ready for Great Depression Part II.
Those of you who know me a bit from my history know that I don’t pull this trigger lightly. I didn’t fall for all the bear schemes in the last five years. I’ve been a bullish investor for the past 10 years.

The last time I did this (everything to bonds) was in December of 2007.

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126   FuckCCP89   ignore (5)   2020 Jul 11, 8:20pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

ignoreme says
But you are buying from someone else who is selling it because they think it is a bad investment at that price.


Or they need cash. Or they are rebalancing their portfolio/MF/ETF.
127   just_passing_through   ignore (7)   2020 Jul 11, 8:26pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

ignoreme says
I’m not so prideful to think that I’m the more informed investor in even 50% of those transactions, and anyone that can consistently “win” at stock picking


There is a lot of talk among the financial channels that index fund investors may be in for a big surprise in the long run. That being said, after a nice crash I'd probably do the same at this point with a portion.

If you understand an industry very well (because maybe you work in it) and have a fairly clear view of who the disruptors will be then picking individual stocks kicks the shit out of indexes. Riskier though. Not a good idea for older folks unless they are already wealthy.

If I had gone with indexes I wouldn't be so close to being a multi-millionaire right now.

That being said, when Trump got elected and started with the off the cuff comments about what he was going to do to pharma (which would affect biotech too) I sold out and missed the entire Trump run up. So I'm no stock genius.
128   Blue   ignore (0)   2020 Jul 12, 12:37am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Crash can happen. I guess that part of info is already factored in. Being in index funds can help to recover in few years if it really crash or else can get moderate growth.
129   clambo   ignore (5)   2020 Jul 12, 12:55pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Doing some math I found I get $105/week in dividends from my Apple stocks.

My real money is in mutual funds and I didn’t calculate that although Vanguard statements show it anyway.

How the hell am I supposed to be worried about stocks?

I like the T. Rowe Price website, it shows the amount of dividends and capital gains in the mutual funds.
The dividend component of the funds is significant, even for growth funds.

Never get out of stocks, until you need the dough or you are a geezer who wants only income.
130   mell   ignore (6)   2020 Jul 12, 12:58pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Wow you must have a lot of aapl stock for that much dividend. Good for you.
131   Dholliday126   ignore (0)   2020 Jul 12, 1:26pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

clambo says

Never get out of stocks, until you need the dough or you are a geezer who wants only income.


That's the key, doomers get paralyzed and do nothing, always waiting for the crash. Successfull stock guys understand, never play with money you can't stand to not touch for 7 years, never buy one stock/buy a basket of 40, crashes happen but over the long run you'll be ok, and if you do nothing inflation eats what you do have at a much higher rate then you think. And stocks are the most liquid asset, so even if you do freak out its one phone and basically free to get out. RE will cost you a minimum 5% to sell.

The most successful guys I know never are out of the markets, although the do trade around it. Theres a trade for anything, virus is a basket of tech stay at home stocks, war buy defense sector, zombie apocalypse buy gun stocks. Doomers just wait for the crash in cash and get eroded. I saying this because because I was that guy for 10 years and it probably cost me a lot. Hell, if you are really that doom and gloom, just get into stocks and rock a put option for the SP to go down by a half, would cost nothing but prob keep your mind at ease.
132   Dholliday126   ignore (0)   2020 Jul 12, 3:04pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Agreed. And the true money makers always buy more when the market tanks, so they want a crash, they see it as opportunity.
133   just_passing_through   ignore (7)   2020 Jul 12, 3:06pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

mell says
Wow you must have a lot of aapl stock for that much dividend. Good for you.


That's what I was thinking! Also that it's 420/month. That's a great number!
134   clambo   ignore (5)   2020 Jul 12, 3:23pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Just and Mell, thank you for your comments.

I am fortunate that they split my shares, then began with the dividends.

This is why stocks are so good; they can pay in different ways.

My friend bought about $20,000 in silver coins and later some gold, while I kept yelling at him that neither can either split nor pay dividends. He also has a small business and kept buying inventory with his profits “buy Apple, buy Primecap!” Of course, he’s a mile underwater with some silver he bought at $45+/oz.

Around 2000 or before I bought some stocks for fun and later sold them because “this is a pain in the ass to keep track of.” Was that a huuuge mistake which I won’t repeat.
135   just_passing_through   ignore (7)   2020 Jul 12, 3:30pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

I definitely plan to go hard in the stock markets again eventually. I made a lot and at some point decided it was best to diversify to protect myself from myself. So Real Estate and some other things.

Even being out of the market my after-tax net worth has been going up 75K each year for the past 3 years. So I'm not succumbing to inflation but I'm not making a lot of progress with that either.

I'm pretty sure if I'm patient I'll have a better entry point for stoncks, gold, bitcorn, a new used car, a very used house over the next 6 months to 2 years. Would suck to lose my house down payment. I've only been waiting to move from apartments to a SFH for 25 years. I'd hate to start over lol...
136   Shaman   ignore (2)   2020 Jul 12, 5:14pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Stocks are going to be a really good investment again in a few months! If your cash is ready for the opportunity.
137   FuckCCP89   ignore (5)   2020 Jul 12, 5:17pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

just_adhom_preaching says
Would suck to lose my house down payment. I've only been waiting to move from apartments to a SFH for 25 years.


A texbook reason for not being in the stocks. Don't see how this is contrarian.
138   ignoreme   ignore (3)   2020 Jul 12, 5:33pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

just_adhom_preaching says
If you understand an industry very well (because maybe you work in it) and have a fairly clear view of who the disruptors will be then picking individual stocks kicks the shit out of indexes. Riskier though. Not a good idea for older folks unless they are already wealthy.


Most of the people spouting the “I understand the industry so I know what stocks to pick” line are code monkeys who understand nothing about investing.

Congrats, you bought Amazon. For the last 5 years the correct answer has been Amazon.

This plus the fact that all coders think they are the smartest person in the room at all times has made some really insufferable idiots who think they understand how to invest because they bought Amazon. Or worse, they think their stock guy is gods gift because they guessed Amazon and happily pay him 1%+ because they are special.

It’s a failure of our school system. You are not special. You are not above average. If you go to a poker game and don’t know who the mark is it’s you. Your investment advisor isn’t the next Buffet. People at Buffets level have better stuff to do then mess with your 100k portfolio.

You can pick stocks. When you do this you are guaranteed to get either above or below market returns. Why does everyone think they are going to get above market? All the research shows 80% of you won’t. Why would you take an 80% chance to lose money when the average market returns is sufficient for anyone?
139   just_passing_through   ignore (7)   2020 Jul 12, 6:00pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

ignoreme says
Most of the people spouting the “I understand the industry so I know what stocks to pick” line are code monkeys who understand nothing about investing.


That's quite the long post for a moron who thinks he's got me (probably the world) all figured out.

Main one was ILMN and I worked there in the early days. I even bought my own stock on the open market I was so convinced it was going to be a huge game changer. It was! I made a couple of million off of that pre-tax.

I did well with several other biotech companies. For decades I've always recommended to my friends NOT to invest in biotech/pharma because they don't understand it. I on the other hand, do very well.

I wish I'd bought some Amazon.
140   Patrick   ignore (1)   2020 Jul 12, 6:01pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

porkchopexpress says
The Left REALLY needs a White cop to kill a Black man. Time is a-wastin'


The problem is that black cops kill black men at a higher rate than white cops do.
141   clambo   ignore (5)   2020 Jul 12, 6:51pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Since some read my comments, herewith my tale of “never sell stocks.”

In the early 90’s I was making some dough and I began to obsess about retirement investing. I never had a trader mentality.

The dot com boom was going on, a friend said to me “this is gonna be huge.”

So I drove my truck down Baja and I saw them laying the fiber optic cable along the side of the road. I thought “Corning makes this, I bet they’re laying it everywhere.”

Back home, I bought stocks and mutual funds on a whim, like a hoarder. Mostly I owned funds, but I wanted more thrills.

I bought some Sun Microsystems, Corning, Apple, Compaq. Since my funds had a $3000 minimum (some $2500) I bought in $3000 amounts.

Later, my Sun stock was falling, but I was down in Baja and I didn’t want to deal with it.
Later I thought “Why bother?” I sold it all.

My Apple shares would be worth about $400,000 today if I had kept my shares; they have split twice (14:1) since I owned them the first time.

I have a big case of sellers remorse.
142   FuckCCP89   ignore (5)   2020 Jul 12, 6:52pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Patrick says
porkchopexpress says
The Left REALLY needs a White cop to kill a Black man. Time is a-wastin'


The problem is that black cops kill black men at a higher rate than white cops do.


That does nothing to move the markets.
143   just_passing_through   ignore (7)   2020 Jul 12, 7:13pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

I'll buy some sort of funds when I'm older. I'm only halfway to early retirement. I'm definitely too old for risky shit but there was a time that was the correct choice.

Lots of the big name wealthy people say diversification is for suckers. I hear a lot on business news say don't try to time the market. I agree with the former if you are young.

I got into the dot-com late. I was quite poor too. I made a great percentage in that last year of run up and got out early except for two companies that I kept that went under. Overall I made out.

I invested heavily (percentage wise because I was still basically poor) in the run up to the housing market crash. I got out early and kept my money. I don't recall if I beat the market. There really weren't a lot of indexes back then to compare to. I wasn't poor anymore.

I invested heavily in the next run up and again, by picking stocks. I got out early. Very early. Way too early. But I got out up over 1000%. Indexes that had now become popular wouldn't have done that for me. Rolled a lot of that over into Real Estate investments, a 500K house down payment and the retirement accounts are all set and waiting to take advantage of some sort of reset.

Other reasons I'm not in and am just going to wait for a pullback:

1. Algorithms: It used to be you could do things like, "buy on the rumor, sell on the news" and use other heuristics but not so much anymore.
2. This is no longer a market. I guess that ended in the 80s but really came into being the past decade.

The market we're in right now to me just seems like a fucking house of mirrors casino where the odds are stacked up against you more than a regular casino would be yet the owners WANT you to win so they keep printing more poker chips.

I just psychologically have an issue with investing in something like that. Or to continue investing a the 'Fed put' anyway. I have 250K I could use that is in retirement funds that wouldn't affect my house down payment but it's just going to sit there for a bit. I understand there is a shit ton of money sitting in American retirement accounts like that waiting to invest on a reset. Would have been nice if the Fed didn't get in the way.

I do still do a bit of swing trading along the lines of the method this guy uses:

&t=628s

Just using 25K and I'm in-n-out. I make one or a few hundred here and there. I sleep well.
144   just_passing_through   ignore (7)   2020 Jul 12, 7:34pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

I forgot to mention... What I'm hoping for is some sort of major pull back for the retirement account. Then I figure I'd try out Rin's suggestion and select some dividend aristocrats then evaluate them each year, pruning / buying. There is a fund I like too come to think of it: ARKK

I mentioned that over Valentines day weekend not expecting him to buy it buy my Dad has made out great!

I haven't bought a tech stock since the 90s.
145   ignoreme   ignore (3)   2020 Jul 13, 8:44am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Wow, call me a moron, refute none of my points, admit you don’t even know if you beat the market, then admit you haven’t bought a tech stock since the 90s... whatever dude.
146   just_passing_through   ignore (7)   2020 Jul 13, 9:13am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

ignoreme says
Wow, call me a moron, refute none of my points


You refuted your own damn point when you called me an insufferable code monkey. If any code monkey can beat your strategy simply by buying Amazon your strategy is shit. Yes, I beat the market over the last decade can't you even read? Moron.
147   Eric Holder   ignore (0)   2020 Jul 13, 9:28am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

ignoreme says
code monkeys who understand nothing about investing


Time to reveal what kind of monkey you are.
148   just_passing_through   ignore (7)   2020 Jul 13, 9:31am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

A black one. The white ones are racist. Duh.
149   Hircus   ignore (0)   2020 Jul 13, 9:45am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

I'm getting antsy to short TSLA.... its at 1715 today. Holy shit, look at that 1yr

150   Dholliday126   ignore (0)   2020 Jul 13, 10:26am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

From my understanding TSLA all depends on its next Q earnings and whether those earnings (3rd straight positive) will qualify them for the SP500 and therefore must be bought be indices/ETFs. Seems a little too binary to short.
151   Shaman   ignore (2)   2020 Oct 28, 1:08pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

I’m back in. Trump is gonna win and it’s gonna bump stocks up as people know the devastating lockdowns are done for good. Good day for investing!
152   WookieMan   ignore (7)   2020 Oct 28, 1:49pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Shaman says
I’m back in. Trump is gonna win and it’s gonna bump stocks up as people know the devastating lockdowns are done for good. Good day for investing!

Just my take, but I think we go sideways for a Trump 2nd term. This Covid BS is an issue for sure. It's unavoidable. Money usually spent wasn't and cannot be made up regardless of the business and personal bailout.
153   BayArea   ignore (1)   2020 Oct 28, 2:26pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Shaman says
I’m back in. Trump is gonna win and it’s gonna bump stocks up as people know the devastating lockdowns are done for good. Good day for investing!


Reading the original post and now this. How much did you lose?
154   ignoreme   ignore (3)   2020 Oct 28, 3:04pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Shaman says
I’m back in. Trump is gonna win and it’s gonna bump stocks up as people know the devastating lockdowns are done for good. Good day for investing!


And it’s just as likely that he’ll lose or something else and it will go down tomorrow and you’re getting back in at exactly the wrong time.

I took a lot of crap in this thread previously for saying just to let it ride in index funds. Hope this real life example illustrates why that is correct advice.
155   B.A.C.A.H.   ignore (0)   2020 Oct 28, 3:06pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Shaman says
Trump is gonna win and it’s gonna bump stocks up

I hope you're right, homie.

156   Shaman   ignore (2)   2020 Oct 28, 4:20pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

BayArea says
Reading the original post and now this. How much did you lose?


Got out at DoW 26,000, not much change from today’s result.
157   Eman   ignore (0)   2020 Oct 28, 4:58pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Hircus says
I'm getting antsy to short TSLA.... its at 1715 today. Holy shit, look at that 1yr



Hope you didn’t short it. From one happy Tesla owner and shareholder. I’ve been taking money from the TSLA shorts. Long TSLA.
158   BayArea   ignore (1)   2020 Oct 28, 5:59pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Shaman says
BayArea says
Reading the original post and now this. How much did you lose?


Got out at DoW 26,000, not much change from today’s result.


Lucky man. You could have really been fucked with that selling and buying... trying to time markets
159   Dholliday126   ignore (0)   2020 Oct 28, 6:28pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

You can't time assets, you just need to be in them. Unless you like getting fucked by inflation...
160   mell   ignore (6)   2020 Oct 28, 6:40pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Dholliday126 says
You can't time assets, you just need to be in them. Unless you like getting fucked by inflation...


Depends, for the regular side/hobby trader that is likely true. However if you're willing to invest most of the full 10 hours (incl. AH) into the market action (since everyone is WFH anyways) or you can automate certain patterns then you can make a lot of money every day, esp. in a volatile market as right now. In the past weeks there have been numerous days where one could turn a few k loss into a few k green for select stocks within minutes. I expect volatility to continue or even grow in the current climate.
161   just_passing_through   ignore (7)   2020 Oct 28, 6:44pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

mell says
you can automate certain patterns then you can make a lot of money every day, esp. in a volatile market as right now.


Swing trading weather baby!
162   Patrick   ignore (1)   2020 Oct 28, 7:46pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Hircus says
I'm getting antsy to short TSLA.... its at 1715 today. Holy shit, look at that 1yr


How about buying puts instead of shorting? Then your downside is limited to what you buy them at, but the upside is the same.

I tripled my money on TSLA and got out because I thought it was overvalued, then it doubled. I really don't understand it, but shouldn't complain.
163   SunnyvaleCA   ignore (1)   2020 Oct 28, 7:59pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Patrick says
Hircus says
I'm getting antsy to short TSLA.... its at 1715 today. Holy shit, look at that 1yr


How about buying puts instead of shorting? Then your downside is limited to what you buy them at, but the upside is the same.

I tripled my money on TSLA and got out because I thought it was overvalued, then it freaking quadrupled. I really don't understand it, but shouldn't complain.
I made some money on TSLA puts after the "funding secured" $420 tweet. The basic problem is that the puts are very expensive — put writers know there's a reasonable danger of a crash. If a $400 strike costs you $100, the company needs to go down to $300 before you even just recoup the purchase price. To justify the risk of expiring worthless, you want to believe the company will go to $100 or $200 in short order.
164   Dholliday126   ignore (0)   2020 Oct 28, 8:27pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

mell says
Dholliday126 says
You can't time assets, you just need to be in them. Unless you like getting fucked by inflation...


Depends, for the regular side/hobby trader that is likely true. However if you're willing to invest most of the full 10 hours (incl. AH) into the market action (since everyone is WFH anyways) or you can automate certain patterns then you can make a lot of money every day, esp. in a volatile market as right now. In the past weeks there have been numerous days where one could turn a few k loss into a few k green for select stocks within minutes. I expect volatility to continue or even grow in the current climate.


I pay a money guy, I don't have the time nor discipline to do it myself.
165   Patrick   ignore (1)   2020 Oct 28, 9:31pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

SunnyvaleCA says
If a $400 strike costs you $100, the company needs to go down to $300 before you even just recoup the purchase price.


True. Options is a tough game played by smart people, but at least the downside is capped. When you short, you can really get taken to the cleaners.

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