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The unemployment is starting first this time. Stock market always leads this sort of thing. The UE numbers are nothing short of horrific. 17million people filed in the past three weeks, that’s 10% of the entire workforce. Instead of producing taxable income, they’ll be relying on the government for lost wages and financial support. And keep in mind that due to extreme pressure on the system, many people who wanted to file haven’t been able to do so. I expect another 6 million next week. And the next week.
It will continue until they reopen the economy. At that point we will have 20-25% unemployment, bigger numbers than the Great Depression.
The populist outcry will be unmatched in American history. The institutions will have to hear and obey or be crushed in a Revolution.
What does that have to do with anything?
First of all, a Chinese restaurant selling margarita? That’s the first time I’ve heard of it.
We are in a great depression right now. It is going to be worse than 1929."
Look at how cruise lines are about 80% below their recent all time high share price. I can't imagine cruise lines will not be at 25% of normal business for the next 12 months starting in July.
Your morning briefing..I have 53 years of experience flying on various aircraft (military and civilian) around the world. This includes three take offs and landings from an aircraft carrier deck.
In flying the two nightmare moments are when oxygen masks drop and the pilot shouts out over the intercom:
"Brace for impact!!!"
In all these years flying, I have had a couple of close calls. I have never had the oxygen marks drop or heard those dreaded words above.
I'm friends with Alan Tam. He started life in Hong Kong. He immigrated to the US. He ended up in Pacifica. He opened Tam's Chinese restaurant. Normally I would come in at lunch, have a great plate of Chinese food washed down with a superb Margarita. Alan and I would make small talk. He is a gentleman and highly intelligent. He is not a political extremist or a man who believes conspiracy theories or apocalyptic prophesies.
Today I went to buy a takeout lunch. The food was great as always. I asked for a Margarita to take away with lunch. (The state of California suspended some alcoholic beverage rules to allow alcohol takeaways). Alan claimed that he was not allowed to do this.
We started to talk about his current situation. He made the following comment:
"We are in a great depression right now. It is going to be worse than 1929."
On those words I shall close.
Be careful out there!
Amo-a,
-JackW