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A Wise Man Issues An Ominous Warning

By ohomen171 follow ohomen171   2020 Apr 9, 4:06am 396 views   16 comments   watch   nsfw   quote   share    


#alandtam/greatdepressionMadame President:
Your morning briefing..I have 53 years of experience flying on various aircraft (military and civilian) around the world. This includes three take offs and landings from an aircraft carrier deck.
In flying the two nightmare moments are when oxygen masks drop and the pilot shouts out over the intercom:
"Brace for impact!!!"
In all these years flying, I have had a couple of close calls. I have never had the oxygen marks drop or heard those dreaded words above.
I'm friends with Alan Tam. He started life in Hong Kong. He immigrated to the US. He ended up in Pacifica. He opened Tam's Chinese restaurant. Normally I would come in at lunch, have a great plate of Chinese food washed down with a superb Margarita. Alan and I would make small talk. He is a gentleman and highly intelligent. He is not a political extremist or a man who believes conspiracy theories or apocalyptic prophesies.
Today I went to buy a takeout lunch. The food was great as always. I asked for a Margarita to take away with lunch. (The state of California suspended some alcoholic beverage rules to allow alcohol takeaways). Alan claimed that he was not allowed to do this.
We started to talk about his current situation. He made the following comment:

"We are in a great depression right now. It is going to be worse than 1929."

On those words I shall close.

Be careful out there!
Amo-a,
-JackW
2   Tenpoundbass   ignore (15)   2020 Apr 9, 6:30am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Margaritas in a Chinese takeout joint?
That's like getting a Bloody Mary with your cone at a Baskin and Robins
3   B.A.C.A.H.   ignore (0)   2020 Apr 9, 9:08am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Look it up, homies: the Great Depression did not commence all at once when the Stock Market crashed in October 1929. In the months that followed, the market indices gained back most of what they lost. Sound familiar? Though fancy-pants broker types may have been jumping out of windows already, wide scale unemployment didn't happen yet.

The real asset price collapse and mass layoffs came later, a slower grind in second half of 1931 (when the UK famously went off the gold standard) to 1933.

This party is not even started yet. Just at the invitations-being-sent-out stage.

Party On, Hipsters.
4   HEYYOU   ignore (50)   2020 Apr 9, 9:25am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

“We can’t return to normal because our normal was the problem in the first place.” (kabbalah.info)
5   Shaman   ignore (2)   2020 Apr 9, 9:27am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

The unemployment is starting first this time. Stock market always leads this sort of thing. The UE numbers are nothing short of horrific. 17million people filed in the past three weeks, that’s 10% of the entire workforce. Instead of producing taxable income, they’ll be relying on the government for lost wages and financial support. And keep in mind that due to extreme pressure on the system, many people who wanted to file haven’t been able to do so. I expect another 6 million next week. And the next week.
It will continue until they reopen the economy. At that point we will have 20-25% unemployment, bigger numbers than the Great Depression.
The populist outcry will be unmatched in American history. The institutions will have to hear and obey or be crushed in a Revolution.
6   WookieMan   ignore (4)   2020 Apr 9, 9:59am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Shaman says
The unemployment is starting first this time. Stock market always leads this sort of thing. The UE numbers are nothing short of horrific. 17million people filed in the past three weeks, that’s 10% of the entire workforce. Instead of producing taxable income, they’ll be relying on the government for lost wages and financial support. And keep in mind that due to extreme pressure on the system, many people who wanted to file haven’t been able to do so. I expect another 6 million next week. And the next week.
It will continue until they reopen the economy. At that point we will have 20-25% unemployment, bigger numbers than the Great Depression.
The populist outcry will be unmatched in American history. The institutions will have to hear and obey or be crushed in a Revolution.

I think revolution is a bit of a stretch. I think people just say fuck it and open back up their restaurants and businesses regardless of any government BS. At this point, any fines they try to dish out would not make profits negative as people came out of the woodwork. Would just be a extra tax essentially. They WILL not start arresting people in mass quantities. There's not enough jail space. I'm sure there are a few cases of people being arrested or fined, but you can't do that when say 1M people in Chicago just start doing what they used to. This is what I think of as revolution, not sure if that's what you meant.

Pitchforks and torches ain't happening though. Enough people are working and once the stimulus hits, 60-70% of people that lost their jobs will have gotten what they would have in most circumstances. We have to open May 1st though. Otherwise we have my above idea of revolution where people just say fuck it, we gonna do what we want and that's get back to work, go out to eat, etc.
8   clambo   ignore (5)   2020 Apr 9, 10:21am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Four weeks of unpaid leave will not destroy our economy.

The Depression was a result of too many bank failures which followed a stock market crash.

Banks today are not going to be allowed to fail, as we have seen already.
9   thomasdong1776   ignore (0)   2020 Apr 9, 10:27am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

ohomen171 says
I have 53 years of experience flying on various aircraft (military and civilian) around the world.


What does that have to do with anything?
10   E-man   ignore (0)   2020 Apr 9, 10:55am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

First of all, a Chinese restaurant selling margarita? That’s the first time I’ve heard of it.

Second, this gentleman didn’t live through the Great Depression. However, I believe he is going through his own Great Depression due to shelter-in-place (SIP). His business has suffered financially big time. He’s losing money on his restaurant while he still has his home and other living expense obligations. This SIP has hurt a lot of businesses.

I don’t care what the experts and the president say. SIP has to be lifted by May 1st. We have to go back to work even if we catch the coronavirus and die. People’s lives can’t be ruined financially with SIP.
11   covid_shmovid   ignore (5)   2020 Apr 9, 11:40am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

ohomen171 says
Madame President


Say what now?
12   just_dregalicious   ignore (2)   2020 Apr 9, 7:00pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

thomasdong1776 says
What does that have to do with anything?


Nothing. Pacifica is full of scummy salty people. Definitely nothing to brag about.
13   Rin   ignore (7)   2020 Apr 9, 7:12pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

E-man says
First of all, a Chinese restaurant selling margarita? That’s the first time I’ve heard of it.


In the greater Boston area, there a lot of these 'Americanized' Chinese places, though not known for their food, always pack it in with the drinkers.

And yes, all kinds of Margaritas and Martinis are on the menu.

Whenever I find myself at those places, I simply order a dish of Chow Mein with the Martinis as nothing else on the menu is worth eating.
14   ad   ignore (0)   2020 Apr 9, 7:28pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

.

This is a goverment forced shutdown. Its a Democrat dream as it crashed the economy to make Trump look bad, and also has enacted major government control over our lives.

Businesses like restaurants did not shut down due to lack of adequate business.

I like Bloomin Brands as far as a dining customer with its Carabba Brothers and Outback Steakhouse. Its at $9.12. It was around $25 back in April 2018. So maybe the next 12 months it will average about 50% of pre-COVID 19 business.

Look at how cruise lines are about 80% below their recent all time high share price. I can't imagine cruise lines will not be at 25% of normal business for the next 12 months starting in July.

That is how you should price in a stock initially as well as look at many other indicators like S&P credit rating, earnings per share for last 5 years, book value per share, debt to equity, etc.
15   Y   ignore (3)   2020 Apr 9, 7:39pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

1929 was a pussy depression compared to the Barringer Crater of -47980...
ohomen171 says
We are in a great depression right now. It is going to be worse than 1929."
16   Shaman   ignore (2)   2020 Apr 9, 8:48pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

ad says
Look at how cruise lines are about 80% below their recent all time high share price. I can't imagine cruise lines will not be at 25% of normal business for the next 12 months starting in July.


Looking out on the LA Harbor today, I saw six cruise ships parked. One was docked and the others anchored outside the breakwater. All had color coding for Carnival and one was the Carnival Panorama according to its hull.
That would be Carnival’s entire West Pacific fleet tied up perhaps for months, most of the crew still on board, probably trapped. That’s what happens to foreign workers when an economic issue with their ship company places a their ship in watery stasis. Hopefully that company remembers to feed them! Some crews on certain ships have had to resort to begging from passing watercraft and fishing for sustenance.

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