patrick.net

The_Deplorable says

The housing experts are wrong because they ignore the root cause of the
problem - illegal immigrants.
What happens to housing prices when all these millions are kicked out?

The root cause is demographics. The immigrants is part of the government's desperate attempts to prop housing up. Canada and Europe are doing the same thing.

They failed.

GNL says

...were to happen, banks would simply become the nation's landlords, I assume. No more need for lending (for mortgages anyway). Simply set rents as high as f'ing possible and keep everyone rent poor.

Banks hate being landlords, hiring landscapers, paying property taxes, etc. The rest only want them if there's ever-increasing rents on the horizon and the carry costs are low.

Boomers will pass and Millies will dump their property, not wanting to manage it from several states away, nor taking a pay cut and having to find a decent job in states known for lower wages (hence why they retired there, double edged sword).

We had a taste of this with COVID, Northeasterners went to FL, Midwesterners to Tampa, Californians in Texas esp. Austin and San Antonio. After COVID, they got called back at least partially full time and you bet their ass they looked into getting local employment, but there were slimmer pickings than SFBA or NYC Metro, and what they found paid WAY less. Which is a big reason for those dropping markets, both rent and house price.

People ALWAYS brag about where they chose to retire as being the best. But the low cost of living is almost always because it's non-competitive in the jobs and wages department for NON-retirees

MolotovCocktail says

"The immigrants is part of the government's desperate attempts to prop housing up."

The government, ICE, is deporting the illegals.

MolotovCocktail says

The root cause is demographics. The immigrants is part of the government's desperate attempts to prop housing up. Canada and Europe are doing the same thing.

They failed.

Are there enough immigrants buying Canada's expensive housing (without overcrowding them and without government assistance) ?

The_Deplorable says

The government, ICE, is deporting the illegals.

Not enough and not fast enough. Still, some markets will be effected.

AD says

Are there enough immigrants buying Canada's expensive housing (without overcrowding them and without government assistance) ?

They are the ones who drove those expensive prices. Canada has massive amounts if immigration relative to their overall population for about 15 years. To bail out their pension and health care system, mostly.

MolotovCocktail says

"Not enough and not fast enough. Still, some markets will be effected."

In 2025 ICE kicked out close to 2.5 million illegals... My take is that that is fast enough...

The_Deplorable says

MolotovCocktail says

"Not enough and not fast enough. Still, some markets will be effected."

In 2025 ICE kicked out close to 2.5 million illegals... My take is that that is fast enough...

So they claim. And no. Impressive as that might be, not enough.

Estimate by Pew in 2023 was 14 million. No way. More like triple that amount, at least.

This townhome unit sold a couple of days ago for about 18% below its 2023 purchase price of $305,000.

It could have reasonably sold for $325,000 in 2022 when the 30 yr mortgage rate was below 4%.

I noticed sales picking up with the 30 yr conventional mortgage rate at no more than 6% and prices about 20% below 2022 all-time-high levels.

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1820-Annabellas-Dr-Panama-City-Beach-FL-32407/246091125_zpid/

MolotovCocktail says

Its not so bad as 30 Year conventional mortgages are around 6% compare to 8% in 2023. The way Trump is trying to manage the deficit, I think the 10 Year Treasury will remain near 4% and the conventional mortgage between 5.5% and 6%.

https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/mortgage-rates/30-year-fixed

.

https://ground.news/article/home-sellers-outnumber-buyers-by-widest-margin-on-record-redfin-says

Last month, Redfin estimated home sellers outnumbered buyers by 47%, roughly 631,000, marking the largest gap since 2013 based on national listings and buyer data.

Redfin found active buyers fell to the lowest level in 12 years last month as homebuyers pulled back due to high prices, mortgage rates, layoffs and uncertainty, while supply rose in Sun Belt pandemic boomtowns and sellers who bought near the market peak delayed resetting expectations.

Among Sun Belt metros, Austin recorded 17,259 sellers and 7,555 buyers, a 128.4% surplus, the widest gap among top markets.

Patrick says

https://ground.news/article/home-sellers-outnumber-buyers-by-widest-margin-on-record-redfin-says

Last month, Redfin estimated home sellers outnumbered buyers by 47%, roughly 631,000, marking the largest gap since 2013 based on national listings and buyer data.

Redfin found active buyers fell to the lowest level in 12 years last month as homebuyers pulled back due to high prices, mortgage rates, layoffs and uncertainty, while supply rose in Sun Belt pandemic boomtowns and sellers who bought near the market peak delayed resetting expectations.

Among Sun Belt metros, Austin recorded 17,259 sellers and 7,555 buyers, a 128.4% surplus, the widest gap among top markets.

Sellers and Homeloaners: The rates, the rates, cut the rates!

Buyers: The price, the price, damn the rates, cut the price!

We already know about why the buyers are staying away. The rents are dropping in many markets from Colorado to Texas to Florida, so goodbye investors. The people actually in a position to buy a house think they're overvalued, not that the rates are too high.

The huffy "Oh yeah, well I'm delisting and coming back in May, then we'll see what you buyers say!" isn't going to work.

If housing is so scarce, sellers, you should have no problem getting rent ;)

Millions of new multifamilies were built in the last 10 years and many of them have serious vacancy problems. Builders are offering incentives that make buying new a no-brainer over buying used and abused.

MolotovCocktail says

Lower principle beats lower rate, which is what will happen when prices fall.

HeadSet says

Lower principle beats lower rate, which is what will happen when prices fall.

Townhomes on east end of Panama City Beach are clearly selling at early 2021 price levels or about 20% below all time high set in 2022.

How much do you see the median USA home price falling from its ~2022 high if the 30 yr conventional mortgage rate steadies between 5.75% and 6.25% ?

TheAntiPanicanLearingCenter says

Sellers and Homeloaners: The rates, the rates, cut the rates!

Buyers: The price, the price, damn the rates, cut the price!

We already know about why the buyers are staying away. The rents are dropping in many markets from Colorado to Texas to Florida, so goodbye investors. The people actually in a position to buy a house think they're overvalued, not that the rates are too high.

The huffy "Oh yeah, well I'm delisting and coming back in May, then we'll see what you buyers say!" isn't going to work.

If housing is so scarce, sellers, you should have no problem getting rent ;)

Millions of new multifamilies were built in the last 10 years and many of them have serious vacancy problems. Builders are offering incentives that make buying new a no-brainer over buying used and abused.

^^^ This

Multifamily housing is overbuilt and overpriced and will be the yawning chasm of financial doom going forward. The paper behind this (CLO's) is as toxic as the CDO's leading up to the housing bust back in 2008.

stereotomy says

Multifamily housing is overbuilt and overpriced and will be the yawning chasm of financial doom going forward. The paper behind this (CLO's) is as toxic as the CDO's leading up to the housing bust back in 2008.

This is also why a lot of multifamily also still charge $2,500/mo BUT are giving off 5-6 months free. They can't reduce the rental price as it shows on their books because that in turn fucks with their financing.

stereotomy says

Multifamily housing is overbuilt and overpriced and will be the yawning chasm of financial doom going forward. The paper behind this (CLO's) is as toxic as the CDO's leading up to the housing bust back in 2008.

Those multifamilies won't vanish, however. The bank will get rid of it ASAP and the firesale buyers will cut the rents. Or, converted to condos at a very good price. Overpriced ticky tack Shacks and Al Bundys will get SCHLONGED.

1-2 beds under $1500 in/near major metros, not in the sticks 2 hours from employment
Dallas
https://www.redfin.com/city/30794/TX/Dallas/rentals/filter/property-type=multifamily,max-price=1.5k
San Antone
https://www.redfin.com/city/16657/TX/San-Antonio/rentals/filter/property-type=multifamily,max-price=1.5k
Austin (down 21% from COVID peak)
https://www.redfin.com/city/30818/TX/Austin/rentals/filter/property-type=multifamily,max-price=1.5k
Orlando
https://www.redfin.com/city/13655/FL/Orlando/apartments-under-1500-for-rent
Saint Pete
https://www.redfin.com/city/16164/FL/St-Petersburg/rentals/filter/property-type=multifamily,max-price=1.5k

Colorado Springs
https://www.redfin.com/city/4147/CO/Colorado-Springs/rentals/filter/property-type=multifamily,max-price=1.5k
Nashville
https://www.redfin.com/city/13415/TN/Nashville/rentals/filter/property-type=multifamily,max-price=1.5k
Asheville
https://www.redfin.com/city/555/NC/Asheville/rentals/filter/property-type=multifamily,max-price=1.5k
Atlanta
https://www.redfin.com/city/30756/GA/Atlanta/rentals/filter/property-type=multifamily,max-price=1.5k

COVID was the peak of a ~20-year cycle; that trend is now over, it is no pause. We're in a whole new housing market driven by the largest generation dying off or downsizing, and a halt to mass migration.

With the mass stock run up since the 80s and the real estate since the late 90s, Boomers and Early Xers have absolutely nothing to bitch about, unless they blew it all on Jet Skis and Stereos or 3 Ex-Wives.

1. Households are half the size than they were in the 80s
2. Boomers are dying or downsizing
3. Immigration is in reverse.
4. Massive multifamily overbuilds; bankruptcy of investors doesn't matter - the buildings remain and will be sold or rented and competing with overpriced tick tack shacks and bunker ranch houses
4b. $1500 no responsibility/month or $2500+unlimited liability/month?

Greatest Ranches? Postwar Ranches? Midcentury Ranches? "Cracker Box"? Concrete Block ranches.

Another factor in housing (see point 1, above)

MolotovCocktail says

TheAntiPanicanLearingCenter says

Another factor in housing (see point 1, above)

MolotovCocktail says

...and the smarter bitches are starting to figure this out (too late):

MolotovCocktail says

When the feminism wears off: