20
5

housing prices peak 2


               
2022 Apr 29, 9:29pm   855,269 views  7,380 comments

by AD   follow (0)  

.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/pimco-kiesel-called-housing-top-160339396.html?source=patrick.net

Bond manager Mark Kiesel sold his California home in 2006, when he presciently predicted the housing bubble would pop. He bought again in 2012, after U.S. prices fell more than 30% and found a floor.

Now, after a record surge in prices, Kiesel says the time to sell is once again at hand.

« First        Comments 7,345 - 7,380 of 7,380        Search these comments

7345   TheAntiPanicanLearingCenter   2026 Jan 14, 12:44am  



https://x.com/i/grok/share/o2geGuohNffX1WocQ6XZOGF82

Good to see rents drop, keeps out the speculators and pushes those who want to leave the state to sell and not rent out.
7346   Glock-n-Load   2026 Jan 14, 4:23am  

TheAntiPanicanLearingCenter says




"I'm on a fixed income, besides, this is a concrete and steel building. Our home back in MN, MI, NY is made of wood and..."

Ok but, this has nothing to do with economic conditions.
7347   Glock-n-Load   2026 Jan 14, 4:28am  

AD says

As far as this unit

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1700-Annabellas-Dr-Panama-City-Beach-FL-32407/87629985_zpid/

Sold on 1/13/2026 for $232,000

Sold in 9/2023 for $280,000

Sold in 10/2021 for $235,000

Sold in 8/2011 for $139,000

The Panama City Beach townhome's sales price appreciated around 3.75% from 2011 o 2026.

.

What’s the HOA fee?
7348   MolotovCocktail   2026 Jan 14, 7:51am  

Glock-n-Load says

Ok but, this has nothing to do with economic conditions.



7349   AD   2026 Jan 14, 10:04pm  

Glock-n-Load says

AD says


As far as this unit

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1700-Annabellas-Dr-Panama-City-Beach-FL-32407/87629985_zpid/

Sold on 1/13/2026 for $232,000

Sold in 9/2023 for $280,000

Sold in 10/2021 for $235,000

Sold in 8/2011 for $139,000

The Panama City Beach townhome's sales price appreciated around 3.75% from 2011 o 2026.

.

What’s the HOA fee?


I researched this and it was $420 last year. Now it is $383.

Property insurance is going down in Florida so that may be one reason, as we are paying about 25% less on property insurance in Panama City Beach compared to last year.
.
7350   AD   2026 Jan 14, 10:09pm  

TheAntiPanicanLearingCenter says



https://x.com/i/grok/share/o2geGuohNffX1WocQ6XZOGF82

Good to see rents drop, keeps out the speculators and pushes those who want to leave the state to sell and not rent out.


We pay about annual premium $1650 for HO-3 property insurance on our Panama City Beach townhome (3 bedroom, 2 bath, 2 car garage) and replacement value of $275,000. We are about a 2 mile walk (via sidewalk) to the white sand beaches and beach park.

Also there is a master insurance for the HOA for our building which is about $1400 a year. So overall $2850 per year for insurance ;

HOA master insurance and our own property insurance total to about 1.1% of our replacement value.
7351   GNL   2026 Jan 15, 6:51am  

AD says

TheAntiPanicanLearingCenter says




https://x.com/i/grok/share/o2geGuohNffX1WocQ6XZOGF82

Good to see rents drop, keeps out the speculators and pushes those who want to leave the state to sell and not rent out.


We pay about annual premium $1650 for HO-3 property insurance on our Panama City Beach townhome (3 bedroom, 2 bath, 2 car garage) and replacement value of $275,000. We are about a 2 mile walk (via sidewalk) to the white sand beaches and beach park.

Also there is a master insurance for the HOA for our building which is about $1400 a year. So overall $2850 per year for insurance ;

HOA master insurance and our own property insurance total to about 1.1% of our replacement value.

So, how far away do you live from the listing you posted?
7353   Patrick   2026 Jan 15, 7:12pm  

They can't continue to fuck over the young for the benefit of banks and boomers forever.

If that trend continues, the median age of a house buyer will be greater than the median age at death. Then all those buyers will die and the market will be flooded with their houses.

When all those houses go on the market, prices will plummet, people will walk away from their underwater mortgages, and banks will have to take epic losses.

Or not, because the Fed will once again print more cash to buy up the mortgages from the banks, socializing the loss once again via inflation, screwing everyone. I bet that's how it plays out.

What should happen in a just world is that the banks die because of their own stupidity in lending. Your savings in the bank above the FDIC limit ($200K?) will evaporate.

But then prices will be low enough that once again young couples (if they have any income) will easily be able to buy a house and start a family.
7354   stereotomy   2026 Jan 15, 7:20pm  

The last time banks were held accountable was after the S&L crisis in the 1980's. Since then it's been almost 3 generations of corruption and grift.

There were epic deals to be had in the early 1990's, especially in the oil belt.
7355   GNL   2026 Jan 15, 7:20pm  

A shit ton of truth in all of that @patrick for sure. If...

"When all those houses go on the market, prices will plummet, people will walk away from their underwater mortgages, and banks will have to take epic losses.

...were to happen, banks would simply become the nation's landlords, I assume. No more need for lending (for mortgages anyway). Simply set rents as high as f'ing possible and keep everyone rent poor.
7356   Patrick   2026 Jan 15, 7:28pm  

The banks are limited in what they can charge in rent, both by renter incomes, and by the many rental alternatives.
7357   MolotovCocktail   2026 Jan 15, 9:23pm  

Patrick says

When all those houses go on the market, prices will plummet,


...but the Housing Experts of PatNet believe otherwise!
7358   The_Deplorable   2026 Jan 15, 11:09pm  

MolotovCocktail says
"...but the Housing Experts of PatNet believe otherwise!"

The housing experts are wrong because they ignore the root cause of the
problem - illegal immigrants.
What happens to housing prices when all these millions are kicked out?
7359   MolotovCocktail   2026 Jan 15, 11:19pm  

The_Deplorable says

The housing experts are wrong because they ignore the root cause of the
problem - illegal immigrants.
What happens to housing prices when all these millions are kicked out?


The root cause is demographics. The immigrants is part of the government's desperate attempts to prop housing up. Canada and Europe are doing the same thing.

They failed.
7360   TheAntiPanicanLearingCenter   2026 Jan 16, 12:13am  

GNL says


...were to happen, banks would simply become the nation's landlords, I assume. No more need for lending (for mortgages anyway). Simply set rents as high as f'ing possible and keep everyone rent poor.

Banks hate being landlords, hiring landscapers, paying property taxes, etc. The rest only want them if there's ever-increasing rents on the horizon and the carry costs are low.

Boomers will pass and Millies will dump their property, not wanting to manage it from several states away, nor taking a pay cut and having to find a decent job in states known for lower wages (hence why they retired there, double edged sword).

We had a taste of this with COVID, Northeasterners went to FL, Midwesterners to Tampa, Californians in Texas esp. Austin and San Antonio. After COVID, they got called back at least partially full time and you bet their ass they looked into getting local employment, but there were slimmer pickings than SFBA or NYC Metro, and what they found paid WAY less. Which is a big reason for those dropping markets, both rent and house price.

People ALWAYS brag about where they chose to retire as being the best. But the low cost of living is almost always because it's non-competitive in the jobs and wages department for NON-retirees
7361   The_Deplorable   2026 Jan 16, 12:17am  

MolotovCocktail says
"The immigrants is part of the government's desperate attempts to prop housing up."

The government, ICE, is deporting the illegals.
7362   AD   2026 Jan 16, 1:20am  

MolotovCocktail says

The root cause is demographics. The immigrants is part of the government's desperate attempts to prop housing up. Canada and Europe are doing the same thing.

They failed.


Are there enough immigrants buying Canada's expensive housing (without overcrowding them and without government assistance) ?
7363   MolotovCocktail   2026 Jan 16, 8:51am  

The_Deplorable says

The government, ICE, is deporting the illegals.


Not enough and not fast enough. Still, some markets will be effected.
7364   MolotovCocktail   2026 Jan 16, 8:53am  

AD says

Are there enough immigrants buying Canada's expensive housing (without overcrowding them and without government assistance) ?


They are the ones who drove those expensive prices. Canada has massive amounts if immigration relative to their overall population for about 15 years. To bail out their pension and health care system, mostly.
7365   The_Deplorable   2026 Jan 16, 10:03pm  

MolotovCocktail says
"Not enough and not fast enough. Still, some markets will be effected."

In 2025 ICE kicked out close to 2.5 million illegals... My take is that that is fast enough...
7366   MolotovCocktail   2026 Jan 16, 10:16pm  

The_Deplorable says

MolotovCocktail says

"Not enough and not fast enough. Still, some markets will be effected."

In 2025 ICE kicked out close to 2.5 million illegals... My take is that that is fast enough...


So they claim. And no. Impressive as that might be, not enough.

Estimate by Pew in 2023 was 14 million. No way. More like triple that amount, at least.
7367   AD   2026 Jan 18, 12:04am  

This townhome unit sold a couple of days ago for about 18% below its 2023 purchase price of $305,000.

It could have reasonably sold for $325,000 in 2022 when the 30 yr mortgage rate was below 4%.

I noticed sales picking up with the 30 yr conventional mortgage rate at no more than 6% and prices about 20% below 2022 all-time-high levels.

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1820-Annabellas-Dr-Panama-City-Beach-FL-32407/246091125_zpid/
7369   AD   2026 Jan 20, 9:54pm  

MolotovCocktail says






Its not so bad as 30 Year conventional mortgages are around 6% compare to 8% in 2023. The way Trump is trying to manage the deficit, I think the 10 Year Treasury will remain near 4% and the conventional mortgage between 5.5% and 6%.

https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/mortgage-rates/30-year-fixed

.
7370   Patrick   2026 Jan 21, 8:48am  

https://ground.news/article/home-sellers-outnumber-buyers-by-widest-margin-on-record-redfin-says


Last month, Redfin estimated home sellers outnumbered buyers by 47%, roughly 631,000, marking the largest gap since 2013 based on national listings and buyer data.

Redfin found active buyers fell to the lowest level in 12 years last month as homebuyers pulled back due to high prices, mortgage rates, layoffs and uncertainty, while supply rose in Sun Belt pandemic boomtowns and sellers who bought near the market peak delayed resetting expectations.

Among Sun Belt metros, Austin recorded 17,259 sellers and 7,555 buyers, a 128.4% surplus, the widest gap among top markets.
7371   MolotovCocktail   2026 Jan 21, 9:11am  

Patrick says

https://ground.news/article/home-sellers-outnumber-buyers-by-widest-margin-on-record-redfin-says



Last month, Redfin estimated home sellers outnumbered buyers by 47%, roughly 631,000, marking the largest gap since 2013 based on national listings and buyer data.

Redfin found active buyers fell to the lowest level in 12 years last month as homebuyers pulled back due to high prices, mortgage rates, layoffs and uncertainty, while supply rose in Sun Belt pandemic boomtowns and sellers who bought near the market peak delayed resetting expectations.

Among Sun Belt metros, Austin recorded 17,259 sellers and 7,555 buyers, a 128.4% surplus, the widest gap among top markets.




7372   TheAntiPanicanLearingCenter   2026 Jan 21, 12:03pm  

Sellers and Homeloaners: The rates, the rates, cut the rates!

Buyers: The price, the price, damn the rates, cut the price!

We already know about why the buyers are staying away. The rents are dropping in many markets from Colorado to Texas to Florida, so goodbye investors. The people actually in a position to buy a house think they're overvalued, not that the rates are too high.

The huffy "Oh yeah, well I'm delisting and coming back in May, then we'll see what you buyers say!" isn't going to work.

If housing is so scarce, sellers, you should have no problem getting rent ;)

Millions of new multifamilies were built in the last 10 years and many of them have serious vacancy problems. Builders are offering incentives that make buying new a no-brainer over buying used and abused.
7373   HeadSet   2026 Jan 21, 12:52pm  

MolotovCocktail says



Lower principle beats lower rate, which is what will happen when prices fall.
7374   AD   2026 Jan 21, 1:40pm  

HeadSet says

Lower principle beats lower rate, which is what will happen when prices fall.


Townhomes on east end of Panama City Beach are clearly selling at early 2021 price levels or about 20% below all time high set in 2022.

How much do you see the median USA home price falling from its ~2022 high if the 30 yr conventional mortgage rate steadies between 5.75% and 6.25% ?
7375   stereotomy   2026 Jan 21, 1:46pm  

TheAntiPanicanLearingCenter says

Sellers and Homeloaners: The rates, the rates, cut the rates!

Buyers: The price, the price, damn the rates, cut the price!

We already know about why the buyers are staying away. The rents are dropping in many markets from Colorado to Texas to Florida, so goodbye investors. The people actually in a position to buy a house think they're overvalued, not that the rates are too high.

The huffy "Oh yeah, well I'm delisting and coming back in May, then we'll see what you buyers say!" isn't going to work.

If housing is so scarce, sellers, you should have no problem getting rent ;)

Millions of new multifamilies were built in the last 10 years and many of them have serious vacancy problems. Builders are offering incentives that make buying new a no-brainer over buying used and abused.

^^^ This

Multifamily housing is overbuilt and overpriced and will be the yawning chasm of financial doom going forward. The paper behind this (CLO's) is as toxic as the CDO's leading up to the housing bust back in 2008.
7376   MolotovCocktail   2026 Jan 21, 1:56pm  

stereotomy says


Multifamily housing is overbuilt and overpriced and will be the yawning chasm of financial doom going forward. The paper behind this (CLO's) is as toxic as the CDO's leading up to the housing bust back in 2008.


This is also why a lot of multifamily also still charge $2,500/mo BUT are giving off 5-6 months free. They can't reduce the rental price as it shows on their books because that in turn fucks with their financing.
7377   TheAntiPanicanLearingCenter   2026 Jan 21, 5:22pm  

stereotomy says


Multifamily housing is overbuilt and overpriced and will be the yawning chasm of financial doom going forward. The paper behind this (CLO's) is as toxic as the CDO's leading up to the housing bust back in 2008.

Those multifamilies won't vanish, however. The bank will get rid of it ASAP and the firesale buyers will cut the rents. Or, converted to condos at a very good price. Overpriced ticky tack Shacks and Al Bundys will get SCHLONGED.

1-2 beds under $1500 in/near major metros, not in the sticks 2 hours from employment
Dallas
https://www.redfin.com/city/30794/TX/Dallas/rentals/filter/property-type=multifamily,max-price=1.5k
San Antone
https://www.redfin.com/city/16657/TX/San-Antonio/rentals/filter/property-type=multifamily,max-price=1.5k
Austin (down 21% from COVID peak)
https://www.redfin.com/city/30818/TX/Austin/rentals/filter/property-type=multifamily,max-price=1.5k
Orlando
https://www.redfin.com/city/13655/FL/Orlando/apartments-under-1500-for-rent
Saint Pete
https://www.redfin.com/city/16164/FL/St-Petersburg/rentals/filter/property-type=multifamily,max-price=1.5k

Colorado Springs
https://www.redfin.com/city/4147/CO/Colorado-Springs/rentals/filter/property-type=multifamily,max-price=1.5k
Nashville
https://www.redfin.com/city/13415/TN/Nashville/rentals/filter/property-type=multifamily,max-price=1.5k
Asheville
https://www.redfin.com/city/555/NC/Asheville/rentals/filter/property-type=multifamily,max-price=1.5k
Atlanta
https://www.redfin.com/city/30756/GA/Atlanta/rentals/filter/property-type=multifamily,max-price=1.5k

COVID was the peak of a ~20-year cycle; that trend is now over, it is no pause. We're in a whole new housing market driven by the largest generation dying off or downsizing, and a halt to mass migration.

With the mass stock run up since the 80s and the real estate since the late 90s, Boomers and Early Xers have absolutely nothing to bitch about, unless they blew it all on Jet Skis and Stereos or 3 Ex-Wives.
7378   TheAntiPanicanLearingCenter   2026 Jan 21, 5:33pm  

1. Households are half the size than they were in the 80s
2. Boomers are dying or downsizing
3. Immigration is in reverse.
4. Massive multifamily overbuilds; bankruptcy of investors doesn't matter - the buildings remain and will be sold or rented and competing with overpriced tick tack shacks and bunker ranch houses
4b. $1500 no responsibility/month or $2500+unlimited liability/month?

Greatest Ranches? Postwar Ranches? Midcentury Ranches? "Cracker Box"? Concrete Block ranches.
7379   TheAntiPanicanLearingCenter   2026 Jan 21, 5:49pm  

Another factor in housing (see point 1, above)

MolotovCocktail says





7380   MolotovCocktail   2026 Jan 21, 5:54pm  

TheAntiPanicanLearingCenter says

Another factor in housing (see point 1, above)

MolotovCocktail says









...and the smarter bitches are starting to figure this out (too late):

MolotovCocktail says

When the feminism wears off:



« First        Comments 7,345 - 7,380 of 7,380        Search these comments

Please register to comment:

api   best comments   contact   latest images   memes   one year ago   users   suggestions   gaiste