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housing prices peak 2


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2022 Apr 29, 9:29pm   540,043 views  5,026 comments

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https://finance.yahoo.com/news/pimco-kiesel-called-housing-top-160339396.html?source=patrick.net

Bond manager Mark Kiesel sold his California home in 2006, when he presciently predicted the housing bubble would pop. He bought again in 2012, after U.S. prices fell more than 30% and found a floor.

Now, after a record surge in prices, Kiesel says the time to sell is once again at hand.

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4829   GNL   2024 May 8, 9:36am  

zzyzzx says

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/80-of-americans-think-its-a-bad-time-to-buy-a-house-190058819.html

80% of Americans think it's a bad time to buy a house

Unless you are to purchase now and then rates go down by a lot in the next few years, that is.
4830   GNL   2024 May 8, 9:38am  

B.A.C.A.H. says

Ceffer says


Strange. All the homes in my hood are flying off the lot at asking and above

Here also, in San Jose.

One in my neighborhood had a "sold" sign one week after the "for sale" sign was put up.

According to Zillow these places have about a 100% ownership premium over renting.

There seems to be an air of desperation to secure a purchased residence around here for the privilege to pay double what it'd cost to rent, with a locked in super high property tax bill. Reminds me of patrick.net folks surferex back in the day, and BayArea nowadays.

I think this will continue. More and more people will have to settle as renters for life and owners will see massive tax increases over ownership lifetime.
4831   Blue   2024 May 8, 11:02am  

GNL says


owners will see massive tax increases over ownership lifetime.


1978 Prop 13 Ponzi scheme limits the tax as it ties in with purchase price and forces owners to lock in the property to make supply thin and skyrocketing RE prices for people with deep pockets. In recent weeks, I heard from a ex-coworker who he knows 2 guys bought shacks, first one worth 4mil, the other guy, his neighbor for few mils as an upgrade and moves out from his current south SJ home! Both work for Nvidia. For some of these guys based on stock run up, buying any house is just a peanut as their options worth double digits mls (I think, I know few!)
4832   DemocratsAreTotallyFucked   2024 May 8, 11:08am  

B.A.C.A.H. says

Here also, in San Jose.

One in my neighborhood had a "sold" sign one week after the "for sale" sign was put up.

According to Zillow these places have about a 100% ownership premium over renting.

There seems to be an air of desperation to secure a purchased residence around here for the privilege to pay double what it'd cost to rent, with a locked in super high property tax bill. Reminds me of patrick.net folks surferex back in the day, and BayArea nowadays.


Corporate purchases?
4833   Ceffer   2024 May 8, 11:28am  

Or investors trying to tie up hard assets in real estate before the real currency plunge.
4834   DemocratsAreTotallyFucked   2024 May 9, 8:50am  

Big Short 2.0

$1 trillion to $2 trillion to be injected into housing by August via GSE Home Equity financing. Election Year!

Inflationary? Not until after the election, of course.

Also, only about 15% of home loans are originated by private lenders today. If Freddie & Fannie were shut down today, the entire mortgage industry would disappear.

https://youtu.be/14l35U0oar0?si=PmkPRY5E8AwH3k--
4835   GNL   2024 May 9, 9:50am  

How will these trillions be injected into housing?
4836   richwicks   2024 May 9, 9:55am  

GNL says

How will these trillions be injected into housing?

The fed prints money, they loan this .oney at huge discounts to banks, blackrock is a bank, they will borrow this money, they will by the homes.

This is why deficits matter. The more our government prints the more enslaved our nation is
4837   GNL   2024 May 9, 10:52am  

richwicks says

GNL says


How will these trillions be injected into housing?

The fed prints money, they loan this .oney at huge discounts to banks, blackrock is a bank, they will borrow this money, they will by the homes.

This is why deficits matter. The more our government prints the more enslaved our nation is

I get the printing part but, you’re saying that Blackrock will be given the money to purchase 1-2 trillion dollars worth of homes?

As I understand it, Freddiemac is being given the go ahead to finance 2nd mortgages and home equity loans as a way to get people to spend their equity.
4838   richwicks   2024 May 9, 11:02am  

GNL says

I get the printing part but, you’re saying that Blackrock will be given the money to purchase 1-2 trillion dollars worth of homes?

I'm saying that the Uas going into debt is being offset by purpose shoving up home prices. This will make us a nation of slaves.
4839   HeadSet   2024 May 9, 11:47am  

GNL says

As I understand it, Freddiemac is being given the go ahead to finance 2nd mortgages and home equity loans as a way to get people to spend their equity.

Where does Freddiemac get the funds to do that?
4840   DemocratsAreTotallyFucked   2024 May 9, 12:06pm  

UkraineIsTotallyFucked says

GSE Home Equity financing.


What part of that did you all miss?
4841   HeadSet   2024 May 9, 12:20pm  

UkraineIsTotallyFucked says

$1 trillion to $2 trillion to be injected into housing by August via GSE Home Equity financing

I missed the part where Freddiemac gets the money to buy mortgages. You cannot do "GSE Home Equity financing" unless you have the money on hand to pay out.
4842   GNL   2024 May 9, 12:28pm  

HeadSet says

GNL says


As I understand it, Freddiemac is being given the go ahead to finance 2nd mortgages and home equity loans as a way to get people to spend their equity.

Where does Freddiemac get the funds to do that?

FJB?
4843   DemocratsAreTotallyFucked   2024 May 9, 5:15pm  

HeadSet says

You cannot do "GSE Home Equity financing" unless you have the money on hand to pay out.


They have it. Or can easily raise it.
4844   HeadSet   2024 May 9, 6:53pm  

UkraineIsTotallyFucked says

Or can easily raise it.

Raise it how?
4845   DemocratsAreTotallyFucked   2024 May 10, 7:10pm  

HeadSet says

UkraineIsTotallyFucked says


Or can easily raise it.

Raise it how?


How do they normally raise funding? They have collectively, ~$5 trillion in assets on their books already. Where did they raise the funding to get to that?

They are GSEs.
4846   AmericanKulak   2024 May 10, 8:07pm  

There's a huge reset coming to the Car Market as well.

It illustrates why there's no Fed Money Printing their way out of this.

Should have saved the video, but there's a used car dealer who buys at auction, showing a 2021 Tundra with 73k miles going for $72k ,,, "That's almost a dollar a mile!"

There are numerous examples of used cars (30k mi+) going for about as much as the new ones, but once you factor in there are no interest rate teasers for the used cars but there are dealer incentives and special rates for the new ones, it's MORE expensive to buy the used car with the 30k miles than the new model.

The cheapest at the auction is one of those thumbdrive sized cars with 2 seats and 40k miles, going for $9,900.

Same shit in the car market as in the used house market. The new construction is often cheaper than the used due to incentives homeloaners can't offer buyers but the builders/manufacturers can.

The car market is rapidly deteriorating and for the first time, $1000/month payments are now common. Problem is, people soon realize they can't afford that and are returning the vehicles... and the dealership can't move them since the trade-ins and the unsold are already a problem with not moving.

The correction is coming.
4847   gabbar   2024 May 11, 12:44am  

AmericanKulak says

Problem is, people soon realize they can't afford that and are returning the vehicles...

Are cars returnable to dealership? How does one do this, just drop off the car at the dealership where the buyer purchased it from?

You are correct. Car market should either normalize or possibly go down in the next 3 to 6 months. I am actively in the market for a new or used vehicle.
4848   SoTex   2024 May 11, 10:29am  

gabbar says

I am actively in the market for a new or used vehicle.


Same. I just can't bring myself to buy right now when the prices of vehicles are the same as down payments I made on rental houses 11-14 years ago.
4849   mell   2024 May 11, 11:02am  

just_passing_through says

gabbar says


I am actively in the market for a new or used vehicle.


Same. I just can't bring myself to buy right now when the prices of vehicles are the same as down payments I made on rental houses 11-14 years ago.

Can recommend the VW Tiguan. Half the price of a pimped up highlander, 80% of the space. Interior well done
4850   WookieMan   2024 May 11, 11:07am  

just_passing_through says

gabbar says


I am actively in the market for a new or used vehicle.


Same. I just can't bring myself to buy right now when the prices of vehicles are the same as down payments I made on rental houses 11-14 years ago.

Lease or get the weight write off. I'll probably lease next. I'm under 12k miles per year now. Used to be 35k. A to B for me, so I really don't give a shit as long as it works or I can write more off. No fucks given about acceleration, speed or any of the that crap. I like big SUV's that can tow. So I only have about 4-5 models that are realistic for my needs.
4851   SoTex   2024 May 11, 11:31am  

mell says


Can recommend the VW Tiguan. Half the price of a pimped up highlander, 80% of the space. Interior well done


I sold VWs when I was a kid. I would never ever buy one.

Considering a RAM V8 for boat towing and dragging my lawn mower etc., to rental properties. Also a Prius Prime (never would have guessed I'd say that) as a grocery gitter. I expect the RAM to have problems but they are way overbuilt, sitting on lots everywhere so I expected steep discounts soon and are one of the few V8s left.

Right now, I wait... I need to check the toyota for cameras facing the driver. I don't want that shiite.
4852   AmericanKulak   2024 May 11, 11:32am  

gabbar says


Are cars returnable to dealership? How does one do this, just drop off the car at the dealership where the buyer purchased it from?

Voluntary Repossession.

Then there is a secondary/tertiary market where the dealer sells it to wholesalers who often sell their excess inventory to used dealers.

Speaking of which, CARMAX profit was down something like 25% from last year
4853   mell   2024 May 11, 12:20pm  

just_passing_through says

mell says



Can recommend the VW Tiguan. Half the price of a pimped up highlander, 80% of the space. Interior well done


I sold VWs when I was a kid. I would never ever buy one.

Considering a RAM V8 for boat towing and dragging my lawn mower etc., to rental properties. Also a Prius Prime (never would have guessed I'd say that) as a grocery gitter. I expect the RAM to have problems but they are way overbuilt, sitting on lots everywhere so I expected steep discounts soon and are one of the few V8s left.

Right now, I wait... I need to check the toyota for cameras facing the driver. I don't want that shiite.

That's why they are so much cheaper. They're all manufactured in Mexico anyways. We've only had it for a year and it was pretty much brand new, but so far it drives great and is very comfortable. Well built, too. Love old camrys and old Volvo station wagons, indestructible. But see no reason to choose a modern highlander for twice the price.
4854   SoTex   2024 May 11, 12:33pm  

San Antonio makes Toyota trucks. I had an executive from Japan rent one of my houses for a couple of years. Even so, I'd want one made in Japan.
4855   GNL   2024 May 11, 4:48pm  

I think I’m a Camry buyer for life now.
4856   gabbar   2024 May 11, 5:46pm  

just_passing_through says

I sold VWs when I was a kid. I would never ever buy one.

Never owned a VW but from my research they are fun to drive but pain in the ass to repair which happens frequently.
4857   gabbar   2024 May 11, 5:49pm  

AmericanKulak says

Voluntary Repossession

Oh! I didnt know there was something like this. Interesting.
4858   gabbar   2024 May 11, 5:51pm  

AmericanKulak says

it's MORE expensive to buy the used car with the 30k miles than the new model.

This seems to be the case nowadays. I am planning to drive a 2025 Toyota Camry hybrid next week. Never driven a hybrid vehicle.
4859   GNL   2024 May 11, 6:43pm  

gabbar says

AmericanKulak says


Voluntary Repossession

Oh! I didnt know there was something like this. Interesting.

You will get financially raped doing this.
4860   GNL   2024 May 11, 6:45pm  

gabbar says

AmericanKulak says


it's MORE expensive to buy the used car with the 30k miles than the new model.

This seems to be the case nowadays. I am planning to drive a 2025 Toyota Camry hybrid next week. Never driven a hybrid vehicle.

I think this will prove to be a good decision on your part.
4861   SoTex   2024 May 11, 8:27pm  

gabbar says

Never owned a VW but from my research they are fun to drive but pain in the ass to repair which happens frequently.


I rented an Audi (really a VW) for a trip to Houston in February and it was a phenom ride. I had a pal who was a mechanic in the early naughties and he told me he charged double to work on those. They were made in Europe, shipped here, halfway taken apart and the reassembled with Standard hardware instead of metric. So he also had to use 2 sets of tools at the same time. Oh and they break down. A lot.
4862   SoTex   2024 May 11, 8:33pm  

GNL says

I think I’m a Camry buyer for life now.


I'm thinking about that too. I was test driving their top end camrys just before covid. Well actually during covid too. It was hot, I had to wear a stupid mask and it fogged my glasses so I couldn't see well. They have that weird diagonal on the dash I'd have to get used to and no place overhead to store sunglasses (sun roof) like my honda.

They came out with a larger computer screen since then. I'm also wondering if 2024 has the driver facing camera and other BS our govt said they need in 2026 to disable my car or whatever our govt is forcing on them. Oh! And lots of people are starting to get their insurance rates jacked because they sell your data to insurance companies. I haven't had an accident in 35 years but I do have a lead foot. I'd want to disable all that shit.

My honda is 22 years old and hasn't had any major problems, I could fix them all myself but I let a shop replace an oil pan jiffy lube stripped out. They aren't built like that anymore.

I really just don't want any of these stupid 4 bangers with turbos hybrid or other voodoo even if they are faster. More moving parts, they won't last as long.
4863   SoTex   2024 May 11, 8:33pm  

Crap. House thread. I'll stop posting about cars.
4864   SoTex   2024 May 11, 8:34pm  

GNL says

gabbar says

AmericanKulak says

Voluntary Repossession

Oh! I didnt know there was something like this. Interesting.

You will get financially raped doing this.


Okay one more comment haha... Do you mean that's more expensive then them having a repo man take it?
4865   GNL   2024 May 12, 4:33am  

just_passing_through says

GNL says


gabbar says

AmericanKulak says

Voluntary Repossession

Oh! I didnt know there was something like this. Interesting.

You will get financially raped doing this.


Okay one more comment haha... Do you mean that's more expensive then them having a repo man take it?

Good question. Don’t know.
4866   GNL   2024 May 12, 4:40am  

As far as hybrids are concerned, does anyone remember a taxi company that used Prius’s? Cars used as taxis are pretty good proof of quality.
4867   HeadSet   2024 May 12, 6:50am  

GNL says

As far as hybrids are concerned, does anyone remember a taxi company that used Prius’s? Cars used as taxis are pretty good proof of quality.

Discount Cab in Arizona. They had 200 Prius in the fleet and routinely ran them for 300k miles.
4868   gabbar   2024 May 12, 7:30am  

GNL says

You will get financially raped doing this.

Seems like everytime a buyer steps into a dealership, this is what the sales staff wants to do.

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