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housing prices peak 2


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2022 Apr 29, 9:29pm   540,028 views  5,026 comments

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https://finance.yahoo.com/news/pimco-kiesel-called-housing-top-160339396.html?source=patrick.net

Bond manager Mark Kiesel sold his California home in 2006, when he presciently predicted the housing bubble would pop. He bought again in 2012, after U.S. prices fell more than 30% and found a floor.

Now, after a record surge in prices, Kiesel says the time to sell is once again at hand.

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4843   DemocratsAreTotallyFucked   2024 May 9, 5:15pm  

HeadSet says

You cannot do "GSE Home Equity financing" unless you have the money on hand to pay out.


They have it. Or can easily raise it.
4844   HeadSet   2024 May 9, 6:53pm  

UkraineIsTotallyFucked says

Or can easily raise it.

Raise it how?
4845   DemocratsAreTotallyFucked   2024 May 10, 7:10pm  

HeadSet says

UkraineIsTotallyFucked says


Or can easily raise it.

Raise it how?


How do they normally raise funding? They have collectively, ~$5 trillion in assets on their books already. Where did they raise the funding to get to that?

They are GSEs.
4846   AmericanKulak   2024 May 10, 8:07pm  

There's a huge reset coming to the Car Market as well.

It illustrates why there's no Fed Money Printing their way out of this.

Should have saved the video, but there's a used car dealer who buys at auction, showing a 2021 Tundra with 73k miles going for $72k ,,, "That's almost a dollar a mile!"

There are numerous examples of used cars (30k mi+) going for about as much as the new ones, but once you factor in there are no interest rate teasers for the used cars but there are dealer incentives and special rates for the new ones, it's MORE expensive to buy the used car with the 30k miles than the new model.

The cheapest at the auction is one of those thumbdrive sized cars with 2 seats and 40k miles, going for $9,900.

Same shit in the car market as in the used house market. The new construction is often cheaper than the used due to incentives homeloaners can't offer buyers but the builders/manufacturers can.

The car market is rapidly deteriorating and for the first time, $1000/month payments are now common. Problem is, people soon realize they can't afford that and are returning the vehicles... and the dealership can't move them since the trade-ins and the unsold are already a problem with not moving.

The correction is coming.
4847   gabbar   2024 May 11, 12:44am  

AmericanKulak says

Problem is, people soon realize they can't afford that and are returning the vehicles...

Are cars returnable to dealership? How does one do this, just drop off the car at the dealership where the buyer purchased it from?

You are correct. Car market should either normalize or possibly go down in the next 3 to 6 months. I am actively in the market for a new or used vehicle.
4848   SoTex   2024 May 11, 10:29am  

gabbar says

I am actively in the market for a new or used vehicle.


Same. I just can't bring myself to buy right now when the prices of vehicles are the same as down payments I made on rental houses 11-14 years ago.
4849   mell   2024 May 11, 11:02am  

just_passing_through says

gabbar says


I am actively in the market for a new or used vehicle.


Same. I just can't bring myself to buy right now when the prices of vehicles are the same as down payments I made on rental houses 11-14 years ago.

Can recommend the VW Tiguan. Half the price of a pimped up highlander, 80% of the space. Interior well done
4850   WookieMan   2024 May 11, 11:07am  

just_passing_through says

gabbar says


I am actively in the market for a new or used vehicle.


Same. I just can't bring myself to buy right now when the prices of vehicles are the same as down payments I made on rental houses 11-14 years ago.

Lease or get the weight write off. I'll probably lease next. I'm under 12k miles per year now. Used to be 35k. A to B for me, so I really don't give a shit as long as it works or I can write more off. No fucks given about acceleration, speed or any of the that crap. I like big SUV's that can tow. So I only have about 4-5 models that are realistic for my needs.
4851   SoTex   2024 May 11, 11:31am  

mell says


Can recommend the VW Tiguan. Half the price of a pimped up highlander, 80% of the space. Interior well done


I sold VWs when I was a kid. I would never ever buy one.

Considering a RAM V8 for boat towing and dragging my lawn mower etc., to rental properties. Also a Prius Prime (never would have guessed I'd say that) as a grocery gitter. I expect the RAM to have problems but they are way overbuilt, sitting on lots everywhere so I expected steep discounts soon and are one of the few V8s left.

Right now, I wait... I need to check the toyota for cameras facing the driver. I don't want that shiite.
4852   AmericanKulak   2024 May 11, 11:32am  

gabbar says


Are cars returnable to dealership? How does one do this, just drop off the car at the dealership where the buyer purchased it from?

Voluntary Repossession.

Then there is a secondary/tertiary market where the dealer sells it to wholesalers who often sell their excess inventory to used dealers.

Speaking of which, CARMAX profit was down something like 25% from last year
4853   mell   2024 May 11, 12:20pm  

just_passing_through says

mell says



Can recommend the VW Tiguan. Half the price of a pimped up highlander, 80% of the space. Interior well done


I sold VWs when I was a kid. I would never ever buy one.

Considering a RAM V8 for boat towing and dragging my lawn mower etc., to rental properties. Also a Prius Prime (never would have guessed I'd say that) as a grocery gitter. I expect the RAM to have problems but they are way overbuilt, sitting on lots everywhere so I expected steep discounts soon and are one of the few V8s left.

Right now, I wait... I need to check the toyota for cameras facing the driver. I don't want that shiite.

That's why they are so much cheaper. They're all manufactured in Mexico anyways. We've only had it for a year and it was pretty much brand new, but so far it drives great and is very comfortable. Well built, too. Love old camrys and old Volvo station wagons, indestructible. But see no reason to choose a modern highlander for twice the price.
4854   SoTex   2024 May 11, 12:33pm  

San Antonio makes Toyota trucks. I had an executive from Japan rent one of my houses for a couple of years. Even so, I'd want one made in Japan.
4855   GNL   2024 May 11, 4:48pm  

I think I’m a Camry buyer for life now.
4856   gabbar   2024 May 11, 5:46pm  

just_passing_through says

I sold VWs when I was a kid. I would never ever buy one.

Never owned a VW but from my research they are fun to drive but pain in the ass to repair which happens frequently.
4857   gabbar   2024 May 11, 5:49pm  

AmericanKulak says

Voluntary Repossession

Oh! I didnt know there was something like this. Interesting.
4858   gabbar   2024 May 11, 5:51pm  

AmericanKulak says

it's MORE expensive to buy the used car with the 30k miles than the new model.

This seems to be the case nowadays. I am planning to drive a 2025 Toyota Camry hybrid next week. Never driven a hybrid vehicle.
4859   GNL   2024 May 11, 6:43pm  

gabbar says

AmericanKulak says


Voluntary Repossession

Oh! I didnt know there was something like this. Interesting.

You will get financially raped doing this.
4860   GNL   2024 May 11, 6:45pm  

gabbar says

AmericanKulak says


it's MORE expensive to buy the used car with the 30k miles than the new model.

This seems to be the case nowadays. I am planning to drive a 2025 Toyota Camry hybrid next week. Never driven a hybrid vehicle.

I think this will prove to be a good decision on your part.
4861   SoTex   2024 May 11, 8:27pm  

gabbar says

Never owned a VW but from my research they are fun to drive but pain in the ass to repair which happens frequently.


I rented an Audi (really a VW) for a trip to Houston in February and it was a phenom ride. I had a pal who was a mechanic in the early naughties and he told me he charged double to work on those. They were made in Europe, shipped here, halfway taken apart and the reassembled with Standard hardware instead of metric. So he also had to use 2 sets of tools at the same time. Oh and they break down. A lot.
4862   SoTex   2024 May 11, 8:33pm  

GNL says

I think I’m a Camry buyer for life now.


I'm thinking about that too. I was test driving their top end camrys just before covid. Well actually during covid too. It was hot, I had to wear a stupid mask and it fogged my glasses so I couldn't see well. They have that weird diagonal on the dash I'd have to get used to and no place overhead to store sunglasses (sun roof) like my honda.

They came out with a larger computer screen since then. I'm also wondering if 2024 has the driver facing camera and other BS our govt said they need in 2026 to disable my car or whatever our govt is forcing on them. Oh! And lots of people are starting to get their insurance rates jacked because they sell your data to insurance companies. I haven't had an accident in 35 years but I do have a lead foot. I'd want to disable all that shit.

My honda is 22 years old and hasn't had any major problems, I could fix them all myself but I let a shop replace an oil pan jiffy lube stripped out. They aren't built like that anymore.

I really just don't want any of these stupid 4 bangers with turbos hybrid or other voodoo even if they are faster. More moving parts, they won't last as long.
4863   SoTex   2024 May 11, 8:33pm  

Crap. House thread. I'll stop posting about cars.
4864   SoTex   2024 May 11, 8:34pm  

GNL says

gabbar says

AmericanKulak says

Voluntary Repossession

Oh! I didnt know there was something like this. Interesting.

You will get financially raped doing this.


Okay one more comment haha... Do you mean that's more expensive then them having a repo man take it?
4865   GNL   2024 May 12, 4:33am  

just_passing_through says

GNL says


gabbar says

AmericanKulak says

Voluntary Repossession

Oh! I didnt know there was something like this. Interesting.

You will get financially raped doing this.


Okay one more comment haha... Do you mean that's more expensive then them having a repo man take it?

Good question. Don’t know.
4866   GNL   2024 May 12, 4:40am  

As far as hybrids are concerned, does anyone remember a taxi company that used Prius’s? Cars used as taxis are pretty good proof of quality.
4867   HeadSet   2024 May 12, 6:50am  

GNL says

As far as hybrids are concerned, does anyone remember a taxi company that used Prius’s? Cars used as taxis are pretty good proof of quality.

Discount Cab in Arizona. They had 200 Prius in the fleet and routinely ran them for 300k miles.
4868   gabbar   2024 May 12, 7:30am  

GNL says

You will get financially raped doing this.

Seems like everytime a buyer steps into a dealership, this is what the sales staff wants to do.
4869   GNL   2024 May 12, 10:00am  

gabbar says


GNL says


You will get financially raped doing this.

Seems like everytime a buyer steps into a dealership, this is what the sales staff wants to do.


I think this is the case anywhere you’re able to finance anything. A looong time ago, I had a 1995 Mercury Cougar (I would buy another one if I could find a low mileage one. I loved that car) and the transmission was acting up. I took it to AAMCO. I wasn’t sure I wanted to fix it and as fast as he could, the shop owner pulled out a finance option. I laughed in his face. Then I took it to another shop and they put a new gasket on the transmission housing(?) and the car ran perfectly for another 75k miles. Everyone is trying to fuck you. Best to teach your kids this fact early on.
4870   WookieMan   2024 May 12, 10:11am  

GNL says

Everyone is trying to fuck you. Best to teach your kids this fact early on.

Always been the case. Reason why everyone thinks I'm an ass hole. I'm actually nice in person, but if I think someone is being an A-hole the gloves come off. Car dealerships are the worst. When they try to sell all the BS I just say "shut up" most the time. Do you want "x, y, z" package? A prompt shut up. My wife is rather ruthless in this realm as well. My kids are getting there too. Don't know if that's good or bad.. lol.
4872   AD   2024 May 12, 11:43pm  

A family friends is looking to get a reverse mortgage. I think they are getting $80,000 and they have a $1 million home with no mortgage.

Its a good way for a senior citizen (age 62 or more) to stay in their home and get access to cash in order to pay for operating or holding costs like roof repairs, property tax, etc.

The home was built in 2002 and is in the Colorado mountains on 5 acres.

I read the interest rate is around 7.5% for the reverse mortgage.

So in 20 years, the reverse mortgage loan of $80,000 in present value would be around $340,000.

I would safely assume the house would increase in value by around 4% each year during the 20 years to $2.19 million.

So the $340,000 would need to be deducted at closing from the $2.19 million if the home is sold in 20 years.

.
4873   DemocratsAreTotallyFucked   2024 May 13, 12:27am  

The_Deplorable says





https://finance.yahoo.com/news/montana-man-68-begs-moratorium-100200538.html


In many states seniors get relief from property taxes. Either the amount they pay is frozen or they don't pay at all. Or, as in Montana, they get a tax credit up to $1,000 or so.

It helps the schools as well when states do this. Retirees feel (rightly) that they already paid into the schools for their kids. So they tend to vote down school bonds that lead to future property tax increases in their golden years. Not their kids and they can't afford the taxes. So exempting them or giving them some form of relief fixes this problem.

Of course, I don't see any problem as the public school system should be massively defunded in favor of homeschooling anyway.
4874   WookieMan   2024 May 13, 2:40am  

The_Deplorable says




https://finance.yahoo.com/news/montana-man-68-begs-moratorium-100200538.html

Saving money in your younger years is a thing?? No? Live frugal when young. Sock away as much as you can. There's no excuse at 68 to be broke. I don't care how much people dislike 401k's, but it's a protected asset. You can eat shit personally/job wise and keep that money and default on everything else. Compounds tax free. At 68 you could easily draw down $100k/yr and still be adding $30-50k back into the account. No kids. Taxes covered and hopefully a paid off home.

My dad burned through $750k of his 401k to keep his mostly shit real estate "empire" afloat. This was the 90's. He could have just BK'd and gave the properties back and that 401k would be about $5M right now. He spent the money to keep the properties. Which he ultimately lost anyway besides a few of them.
4875   zzyzzx   2024 May 13, 11:09am  

https://www.redfin.com/news/vacation-home-mortgages-decline-2023/

Demand For Vacation-Home Mortgages Fell 40% in 2023 As Housing Costs Rose to Record High
4876   gabbar   2024 May 13, 11:47am  

WookieMan says

Saving money in your younger years is a thing?? No? Live frugal when young. Sock away as much as you can. There's no excuse at 68 to be broke. I don't care how much people dislike 401k's, but it's a protected asset. You can eat shit personally/job wise and keep that money and default on everything else. Compounds tax free. At 68 you could easily draw down $100k/yr and still be adding $30-50k back into the account. No kids. Taxes covered and hopefully a paid off home.

Thank you for this reminder and very sound advice for young and the old.
4877   gabbar   2024 May 13, 11:50am  

WookieMan says

My dad burned through $750k of his 401k to keep his mostly shit real estate "empire" afloat. This was the 90's. He could have just BK'd and gave the properties back and that 401k would be about $5M right now. He spent the money to keep the properties. Which he ultimately lost anyway besides a few of them.

Sorry to hear.
4878   gabbar   2024 May 13, 11:51am  

GNL says


I think this is the case anywhere you’re able to finance anything. A looong time ago, I had a 1995 Mercury Cougar (I would buy another one if I could find a low mileage one. I loved that car) and the transmission was acting up. I took it to AAMCO. I wasn’t sure I wanted to fix it and as fast as he could, the shop owner pulled out a finance option. I laughed in his face. Then I took it to another shop and they put a new gasket on the transmission housing(?) and the car ran perfectly for another 75k miles. Everyone is trying to fuck you. Best to teach your kids this fact early on.

Car repair is an trade where its easy to fudge numbers and repairs. Real estate and home repair too.
4880   HeadSet   2024 May 15, 6:32pm  

UkraineIsTotallyFucked says

This also explains how the GSEs get their funding, for those of you still confused.

You still have to acquire money before you can loan it out.
4881   AmericanKulak   2024 May 15, 11:29pm  

Been watching Palm Bay, FL for a while. A couple of months ago, there was NOTHING under $250k unless it was a Fire or a Foreclosure or a Manufactured with major issues. Speaking of which, I'm seeing a lot more foreclosures now.

Now there's a shitton of houses going under $250k and it looks like the lot-by-lot builders (not the community developers) are now at $269k.

"Starting in the $350's" billboards turned into "Starting in the $300s" on my weekly trip.

Orlando is in full reverso mode with panicking multi-fam. Tens of thousands of new units are coming onboard this year and thousands already did, and now there's a glut. Disney-proximal AirBNB Zero Lot "investors" are panicking as well.

Orlando is pretty much capped and state wide inventory is normalizing. Sanity is about to be restored.
4882   DemocratsAreTotallyFucked   2024 May 16, 1:44am  

HeadSet says

UkraineIsTotallyFucked says


This also explains how the GSEs get their funding, for those of you still confused.

You still have to acquire money before you can loan it out.


They have $5 trillion in assets collectively. They just bundle them up and sell them to investors. They then use the cash to buy more, then rinse & repeat

All of this is well documented. They have been doing this for decades. What is so hard to understand about it?

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