patrick.net

Patrick says

Inflation can be slowing, but the price increases are here to stay. It will take deflation to result in prices going down.

zzyzzx says

Try not to stick your dick in it:

That is not what the Hippies meant when they said they "Want to come into some bread."

Al_Sharpton_for_President says

Inflation can be slowing, but the price increases are here to stay. It will take deflation to result in prices going down.

Deflation is extremely unlikely and it's not important if prices go down. All that matters is the wage-price relationship. It's better for wages to simply rise to meet prices, or both to meet in the middle, which is what eventually happens.

The price inflation that recently occurred was not the direct result of any recent Fed activity. It was the result of massive wage inflation that occurred during 2020. This was the result of pumping the economy during COVID to prevent a crash, by a combination of government incentives to businesses and consumers.

Price inflation followed wage inflation in a very predictable manner; after all, you can't pump demand by handing out money to everyone and expect prices to stay the same. That's not how markets work.



As the above chart shows, there was a massive wage spike in early 2020 due to the Trump administration response to COVID:

There was a return to "quantitative easing" i.e. government purchase of debt; special-purpose vehicles (SPVs) that gave businesses low- to zero-interest loans, massive interest rate cuts; the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) where the government essentially gave money to businesses to stay afloat; the primary and secondary market corporate credit facilities (PMCC and SMCC) were created to purchase corporate bonds and make them more creditworthy; the term asset-backed securities loan facility (TALF) was resurrected to give companies more money; the Main Street Lending Program was created to give small businesses to spread money around even further; the list goes on.

The net result of these Trump-era programs was to fuel massive wage inflation, which in turn fueled price inflation, especially once the pandemic was over and people were out and about trying to spend money on goods that hade become scarce due to COVID-related manufacturing slowdowns or outright stoppages.

"Shrinkflation" is just "Right Sizing our products for the convenience of the Customer"

"And we tried to conceal it as best we could, so we didn't create anxiety in value-oriented customers, for the benefit of their mental health."

See? It's all the best for the best in the best of all possible worlds!

AmericanKulak says

"Shrinkflation" is just "Right Sizing our products for the convenience of the Customer"

Remember when "right sizing" was code for layoffs?

I can't imagine how scary and depressing this shit is for younger people.
I'm past the age of working and giving a shit; I have enough dough to last me no matter what.
My friend had a day off and we went to the beach; my car was being serviced, so I bought lunch because he gave me a ride home.
Fucking McDonalds was 20 bucks for two chicken sandwiches and drinks and he got a shake or something.
I took a brief ride in Uber Sunday and the normal fee was 22 bucks but they added other shit and it was $50 after the tip to the driver.
Luckily I don't spend time in bars, that's where you really can spend money.
I really can't imagine how a guy could afford taking a girl out on a date; she's not going to want lunch at McDonalds for shit sure.
I'm in relatively low cost Florida; I can't imagine being a young guy in Santa Cruz, CA trying to have any fun.
It's frustrating if you realize that the government is actually to blame. Most of people don't, they think inflation is like the weather.

clambo says

they think inflation is like the weather.

That's why politicians liove it.

zzyzzx says

HeadSet says

Remember when "right sizing" was code for layoffs?

Yep!

I think we need to "Right Size" our "Great Value Government".

We're paying way too much for 435 ounces of mostly soyfiller, corn starch, corn syrup, and lots of preservatives and antinutrients.

It's also full of artificially enriched (flour?). Still working on this joke.

I remember when losing some manufacturing would mean more high tech manfacturing - the jobs of the future, too. I remember Hakeem's Uncle, Leonard "Ice People" Jeffries and how the Left screamed "muh Free Speech" when he was canned for calling Europeans deady and destructive.

clambo says

they think inflation is like the weather.

Or worse, it is "Greedy corporations overcharging."

HeadSet says

clambo says

they think inflation is like the weather.

Or worse, it is "Greedy corporations overcharging."

#MMT fluffers are getting younger and younger:

Who is saying Biden inherited inflation? That is a brash a lie as "Nobody was forced to take the vaxx."

zzyzzx says

So a 28% increase per pound in the price of dog food!!! And that’s on an already higher cost food, not the cheaper bargain bags…

Now with less bristles:

Not opened:

Spare tire no longer included as standard:

King sized:

.

https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index

I had a concern yesterday that the 10 Year Treasury was at 4.99% which makes federal debt service or payment even more difficult.

The PCE is now at a 6-month average of around 2.7% which is promising considering it peaked around 7% back in 2022. This should eventually assist with reducing interest rates from the 10 Year Treasury to the 30 year mortgage rate.

The Federal Reserve relies on PCE to monitor inflation, and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said he was looking at inflation to remain below 3% if he was to start considering reductions to the Federal Funds rate.

I think Powell would lower the Fed Funds rate from 5.5% to 5% if PCE remains below 3%, as that provides enough margin keeping the Fed Funds rate 2% above annual inflation.

.

AD says

I had a concern yesterday that the 10 Year Treasury was at 4.99% which makes federal debt service or payment even more difficult.

How so?

The Feds will ALWAYS be able to pay the debt.

AD says

The PCE is now at a 6-month average of around 2.7% which is promising considering it peaked around 7% back in 2022. This should eventually assist with reducing interest rates from the 10 Year Treasury to the 30 year mortgage rate.

The Federal Reserve relies on PCE to monitor inflation, and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said he was looking at inflation to remain below 3% if he was to start considering reductions to the Federal Funds rate.

I think Powell would lower the Fed Funds rate from 5.5% to 5% if PCE remains below 3%, as that provides enough margin keeping the Fed Funds rate 2% above annual inflation.

UkraineIsTotallyFucked says

How so?

The Feds will ALWAYS be able to pay the debt.

Debt service or payment was 8% of total expenditures in 2022. What was it in 2023 and what will it be in 2024 ?