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Real Estate to SOAR?

By joshuatrio follow joshuatrio   2020 Jul 15, 5:40am 343 views   17 comments   watch   nsfw   quote   share    


"While the official government count isn’t out until the end of the month, sales of newly built homes jumped 55% annually in June, according to a monthly survey by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, which has historically mirrored the U.S. Census report. It was the largest annual gain since homebuilding began again following the epic housing crash a decade ago.

It is also the highest pace of sales growth since the height of the unprecedented housing boom in 2005. That expansion was driven by negligent lending in the subprime mortgage market. This boom appears to be driven by the coronavirus pandemic."

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/13/homebuilders-just-saw-the-strongest-june-sales-since-the-last-housing-boom.html

1   georgeliberte   ignore (0)   2020 Jul 15, 5:51am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

"This boom appears to be driven by the coronavirus pandemic."
Does that mean the virus is buying houses? I mean how,, what is the connection?
2   RC2006   ignore (2)   2020 Jul 15, 9:18am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

I'm in market and my agent said when I list my house would sell in days. Where I'm looking to buy I'm seeing the same.
3   Newbie123   ignore (10)   2020 Jul 15, 9:24am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

georgeliberte says
"This boom appears to be driven by the coronavirus pandemic."
Does that mean the virus is buying houses? I mean how,, what is the connection?


Not the virus. Viruses can’t buy anything.
It’s people. They need a roof over their head since most don’t like living in a tent. So they have currently mostly the choice of renting or buying. Why pay someone else if you can own your house and build equity?
Sry for the above....such a cheap sales pitch. Lol.

No, in all seriousness. There is no inventory. There are always people that have the means to buy homes and right now there is barely anything for sale. Plus rates are historic low. In my neighborhood people buy shit like there is no tomorrow. If your spouse has good income too, you are doing great. People that are doing poorly are low wage workers....duh! No surprise here.
4   TrumpingTits   ignore (4)   2020 Jul 15, 9:56am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

joshuatrio says
sales of newly built homes jumped 55% annually in June


Homes that the Bay Area doesn't build enough of?
5   Ceffer   ignore (5)   2020 Jul 15, 10:02am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

joshuatrio says
This boom appears to be driven by the coronavirus pandemic.


"This boom appears to be driven by selected governance attempting to damage, isolate, demoralize and torture their constituents using Covid as a shallow, fabricated pretense."

There, fixed it.
6   WookieMan   ignore (5)   2020 Jul 15, 3:04pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

RC2006 says
I'm in market and my agent said when I list my house would sell in days. Where I'm looking to buy I'm seeing the same.

Low inventory and a family of 4, dual income and still working got $3,400 burning a hole in their pocket if they had other savings as well. The rest of the country ain't CA or NYC. You can get new houses for $250k in a ton of places. So that $3,400 stimulus could get you to your savings goal for a down payment much quicker.

I'd never be buying a house right now, but people need a place to live.
7   mell   ignore (6)   2020 Jul 15, 4:46pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

The demand is mainly in SFH cause people are scared of the Rona and don't want to live "with" other people in condos or aptmnt buildings. That and low rates of course. Here in the bay are the overall trend is down though, with SFH doing better than the rest.
8   ad   ignore (0)   2020 Jul 15, 5:31pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

joshuatrio says
This boom appears to be driven by the coronavirus pandemic.


Examine housing construction or new home starts.

Examine inventory such as median and average months on the real estate market.

Examine sales price versus asking price.

Examine home price to household income (and factor in mortgage interest rate and property taxes).

Examine rent versus household income.

Examine, if possible, number of families living in a 1 family home.

.
9   APOCALYPSEFUCKisShostakovitch   ignore (55)   2020 Jul 15, 5:45pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

BILLIONS of Chinese fugitives need to park the money they stole, guaranteeing doubling of prices until the heat death of the universe!
10   BayArea   ignore (1)   2020 Jul 15, 6:20pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Bay Area real estate is absolutely on fire in the Bay Area in the month of June/July.

It’s discouraged me from buying.
11   WookieMan   ignore (5)   2020 Jul 15, 6:30pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

BayArea says
Bay Area real estate is absolutely on fire in the Bay Area in the month of June/July.

No one wants to list right now. Too much uncertainty, especially if they want to buy after the sale. If you knew you were going to rent after buying for sure, I'd have my house on the market tomorrow. There's nothing to choose from for buyers. If you have a job, you can still get a loan and at low interest rates. Paying a touch higher may not matter as much because the payment is all that matters in all reality.

August is the month. We'll see what all these unemployed people do that were getting their bonus. Not so much a factor in CA considering high housing prices.
12   RC2006   ignore (2)   2020 Jul 15, 6:32pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

I think in 12months after foreclose freeze stops will be crash,
13   GreaterNYCDude   ignore (0)   2020 Jul 15, 8:03pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

In part its the pendulum swining from lets move to the city to lets get the hell out of the city. Virus made people rethink the downside of population density. Saw the same thing (for far different reasons) from late 2001 until about 2003 or so.

(And now I have the Green Acres theme song stuck in my head)
14   Dholliday126   ignore (0)   2020 Jul 15, 8:41pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

They will not let real estate crash, they learned that in 2008. Every month my mortgage servicer mails me a letter basically begging me to stop paying and telling me I can defer for up to a year with no consequences.
15   ForcedTQ   ignore (0)   2020 Jul 15, 11:39pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Dholliday126 says
They will not let real estate crash, they learned that in 2008. Every month my mortgage servicer mails me a letter basically begging me to stop paying and telling me I can defer for up to a year with no consequences.


I believe there are ulterior motives at work here. They way be going for the angle of keeping you on the hook with their mortgage, as if you’re not in good standing it would be hard as hell for you to refi. In a 4.0%+ loan? Want to go to a below 3.0%? Not gonna happen if you’ve put yourself in a forbearance plan... they keep making that 4+ %.....
16   WookieMan   ignore (5)   2020 Jul 16, 3:06am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

ForcedTQ says
Dholliday126 says
They will not let real estate crash, they learned that in 2008. Every month my mortgage servicer mails me a letter basically begging me to stop paying and telling me I can defer for up to a year with no consequences.


I believe there are ulterior motives at work here. They way be going for the angle of keeping you on the hook with their mortgage, as if you’re not in good standing it would be hard as hell for you to refi. In a 4.0%+ loan? Want to go to a below 3.0%? Not gonna happen if you’ve put yourself in a forbearance plan... they keep making that 4+ %.....

That and it's expensive to foreclose. The bank has to sell the home no matter what. So take your home value and tack on 5% to the banks losses in just broker fees. Do easy math, that's $5k on a $100k house. So in 16 months from origination, any interest income you did receive is wiped out just by the broker(s) commission. Factor in if banks are having to foreclose, values themselves are likely dropping. There are of course a plethora of other costs including bank taking over tax payments and the owner still lives there through the foreclosure process. Could be a full year of taxes. In IL that's another $3k. You've now burned through 24-28 month of interest income.

It really only makes sense for a bank to foreclose on a home 7 years deep or later in their loan, unless you have a 15 year. Given interest rates, I'd venture to guess not a very large percentage of homeowners are that far into paying down their mortgage. So it's problematic to ramp up foreclosure as you'd basically be shooting yourself in the foot. Forbearance also allows the bank to keep it as a performing asset on the books and not require extra capital infusions. The game ends though when enough people stop paying and there's a cash crunch. We'll see how it goes. I think it's too early in all this to tell what housing is going to do.
17   Newbie123   ignore (10)   2020 Jul 16, 6:09am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

“ you’re not in good standing it would be hard as hell for you to refi. In a 4.0%+ loan? Want to go to a below 3.0%? Not gonna happen if you’ve put yourself in a forbearance plan... they keep making that 4+ %”

Exactly!

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