patrick.net

Futures flat again. It's almost that the market has now adjusted to the new normal for a while and realized there are some crazy bargains here. I think the big volatility is gone.

All CA retail is shut. But amazon stock, everyone will shop there.

Because insane incompetence of Democrats here who are too busy changing bathroom signs instead of solving problems.

EBGuy says

Anyone tempted to buy SLV (or for that matter, silver bullion)? The gold/silver ratio is way out of whack. As always, a gold/silver ratio correction doesn't necessarily mean silver will rise...

Bought today (not SLV, but other gambling) when silver below $12/ozt. Who knows what the future brings, but given the low price and the extreme ratio compared to gold, the timing looks right to me.

TEOTWAWKI says

It would require a much bigger island though.

Or less immigration..

Boeing down 3.5x and there is a question that they won't be bailed out? I'm surprised at you!

I still haven't bought anything yet but that looks a bit enticing.

Fortwaynemobile says

All CA retail is shut. But amazon stock, everyone will shop there.

Walmart delivers too.

mell says

Why? The Max was a failure but the other planes are rock solid.

Only in the sense that they failed to insist that 3rd world airlines properly train their pilots. They were too PC.

TEOTWAWKI says

All CA retail is shut. But amazon stock, everyone will shop there.

Grocery's are open, no?

just_dregalicious says

TEOTWAWKI says

All CA retail is shut. But amazon stock, everyone will shop there.

Grocery's are open, no?

Not my quote, but yes, grocery stores are open. There are even special days and times dedicated for geezer shopping.

I watched minute 5-15 of Gavin Gruesome speaking an hour ago on utube. I turned it off, I can't stand to hear that fucker speak.

Morgan Stanley Sees U.S. GDP Plunging 30% in Second Quarter
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-22/morgan-stanley-sees-u-s-economy-plunging-30-in-second-quarter

U.S. Jobless Rate May Soar to 30%, Fed’s Bullard Says
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-22/fed-s-bullard-says-u-s-jobless-rate-may-soar-to-30-in-2q

We haven't seen the real blow yet.
There will be massive financial fallout.

epitaph says

Keep an eye on plastics.

Could you elaborate?

Do you mean credit card companies, as a proxy for consumer spending? Or, literally plastic suppliers?

joshuatrio says

I was looking at buying Royal Carribean stock [RCL] this morning. Currently priced in around $39/share, where in the last year it's been between $100-130. Good buy?

Was thinking buy into the travel fear....

Yeah you should have bought..it was a great buy at $39......lol $23... 10 days later

komputodo says

joshuatrio says

I was looking at buying Royal Carribean stock [RCL] this morning. Currently priced in around $39/share, where in the last year it's been between $100-130. Good buy?

Was thinking buy into the travel fear....

Yeah you should have bought..it was a great buy at $39......lol $23... 10 days later

Making my call into NCL today to see how difficult it is to get the cash refund for my trip instead of a future cruise credit. They bumped the offer since I last posted for an additional 20% off any future cruise. They also removed the wording from their letter that you can still get a cash refund. But you can still find it on their website.

My gut says stay away from the cruise lines right now. Too risky. I don't think any of them are getting back out there until June at this point, meaning cruising with passengers. Loyalist will get out and cruise still, but new customer growth is going to plummet and even the loyal customers are holding off on future cruises. Have to remember a ton of their revenue comes from onboard spending and price gouging the excursions they offer. Not just base fares.

Any bet on cruise lines, if they make it, could be years before they recover. You could do well long term, but at this point one of big 3 could go under. Disclaimer: Bought NCL at $22 on 3/9/20 to be honest. My comments aren't out of bitterness, as I'm holding whether it goes to zero or $80. Misjudged this stupid virus. Oh well, was with money I was willing to lose.

Perhaps we can pool our funds to buy a cruise ship as they come out of bankruptcy. We can hit the high seas as the Peoples Republic of Patrickistan.

APOCALYPSEFUCKisShostikovitch says

passengers aren't fucking or drinking.

Good luck with that. I was under the impression that cruise meant fuck and drink in latin.

Patrick says

WineHorror1 says

How do you bet the Dow as a whole?

Index funds, like VTSMX

Yes, I like Vanguard's funds like Total Stock Market Index Fund which matches the Wilshire 5000. Vanguard's ETF for Wilshire 5000 goes under symbol VTI.

For an ETF for the Dow 30, SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (symbol : DIA).

I bought SPY at $232 a share, down 32% from all time high last high. Hope to make a major buy when it reaches around 44% below all time high.

As far as cruise lines, I checked Guru Focus for Norwegian Cruise Line. Its Altman Z score has always been in distressed zone for the last 15 years.

I see Norwegian being the first to go bankrupt if the cruise lines start to fall. However, if this is not a ChiCom biological war and AntiFa does not go around and try to spread the virus until election day, then I see an all-clear by 1 June 2020, and Disney, airlines, cruise ships, hotels, etc. back to normal business no later mid June.

The first half of 2020 will be disastrous as far as earnings reports but second half the earnings will bounce back. I suspect for 2020 we'll see about at least a 5 to 7% drop in GDP compared to 2019.

APOCALYPSEFUCKisShostikovitch says

These fucking boats will be available for nearly free at auction once they go bust.

Best investors just buy them, outfit them with harpoons and Gatling guns and hot chicks and fit them out as pirate hunter ships that lure in pirates and sink them for entertainment, when the passengers aren't fucking or drinking.

Nothing wrong with that.

MM1 says

back to normal business no later mid June.

Will it be normal or a NEW NORMAL with a few more civil rights lost, more people broke. and even less trusting of the govt and the media.

As long as Democrats keep screaming RACISM in order facilitate outsourcing to China and insourcing tens of millions of illegals, we are fucked.

The Democratic Party should be disbanded for their utter failure to protect the working class, their sole mission.

Patrick says

The Democratic Party should be disbanded for their utter failure to protect the working class, their sole mission.

Give it time.... It's coming. At least a complete reorganization at minimum. We'll see what it looks like.

The Democrat rank and file should have abandoned the party almost 4 years ago when the corruption stank to high heaven and even the media couldn't hide it.

They totally stabbed Bernie in the back then, and they did it again this time.

Patrick says

They totally stabbed Bernie in the back then, and they did it again this time.

Eh... I actually think they did the right thing. Bernie is and wasn't electable. Hillary was their best option (which is scary). Bernie doesn't win one state in 2016 that Trump won against Hillary. The outcome would have been even worse for the Dems. I'd call it more a kick to the nuts that he likely saw coming. He's kind of a moron to think things would go differently this time.

He's also super sensitive. A debate would have made him look like a clown against a real estate developer/business person. Bernie has no understanding how the real world works having been a career politician. You can run a business and understand politics. Rarely are there politicians that understand both.

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Patrick says

As long as Democrats keep screaming RACISM in order facilitate outsourcing to China and insourcing tens of millions of illegals, we are fucked.

The Democratic Party should be disbanded for their utter failure to protect the working class, their sole mission.

There are various reasons to this. First, it enables identity politics and cultural marxism as it helps non whites at the expense of white working class in the USA.

More importantly, it helps the Democrats as far as enact their Cloward Piven Strategy.

The Democrats cynically believe it will cause a vast majority of Americans to be supportive of socialism as the solution to the Democrat-manufactured problems.

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joshuatrio says

I was looking at buying Royal Carribean stock [RCL] this morning. Currently priced in around $39/share, where in the last year it's been between $100-130. Good buy?

Was thinking buy into the travel fear....

I bought 200 shares of RCL for about $34 a share.

I bought 1100 shares of CCL for about $9 a share.

I am selling to open covered calls for option contracts that expire within 5 days for both with strike prices that are about 25% to 30% greater than current asset price.

I will make about $450 this week on CCL for a covered call with strike price of $30. $450 divided by $9900 cost basis is 4.5%.

I've done the same method before. I made about 14% just on covered calls each year from 2009 to 2012 on $100,000 cost basis in various stocks.

.

Remmington, glock, sig sauer, smith and wesson, springfield, colt, beretta, etc.,

ad says

More importantly, it helps the Democrats as far as enact their Cloward Piven Strategy.

The Democrats cynically believe it will cause a vast majority of Americans to be supportive of socialism as the solution to the Democrat-manufactured problems.

Thanks, that was interesting:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cloward%E2%80%93Piven_strategy

Had not heard of the Cloward Piven Strategy.

Patrick says

Had not heard of the Cloward Piven Strategy.

???????????

That was a joke, right?

Awe shit. That wikipedia article doesn't really explain shit about the strategy.

Try this one on for size:

https://oathkeepers.org/2018/11/cloward-piven-strategy-explained/

Matches what we're seeing now right?

just_dregalicious says

Awe shit. That wikipedia article doesn't really explain shit about the strategy.

I had really never heard of it.

And I should know better than to trust the Wikipedia these days. What a load of propaganda it has become, cancelling all points of view except The Narrative.

just_dregalicious says

Try this one on for size:

https://oathkeepers.org/2018/11/cloward-piven-strategy-explained/

Ah, yes, that's much clearer than the Wikipedia!

Strategy for forcing political change through orchestrated crisis

... Their article called for “cadres of aggressive organizers” to use “demonstrations to create a climate of militancy.” Intimidated by threats of black violence, politicians would appeal to the federal government for help. Carefully orchestrated media campaigns, carried out by friendly, leftwing journalists, would float the idea of “a federal program of income redistribution,” in the form of a guaranteed living income for all — working and non-working people alike. Local officials would clutch at this idea like drowning men to a lifeline. They would apply pressure on Washington to implement it. With every major city erupting into chaos, Washington would have to act.

This was an example of what are commonly called Trojan Horse movements — mass movements whose outward purpose seems to be providing material help to the downtrodden, but whose real objective is to draft poor people into service as revolutionary foot soldiers; to mobilize poor people en masse to overwhelm government agencies with a flood of demands beyond the capacity of those agencies to meet. The flood of demands was calculated to break the budget, jam the bureaucratic gears into gridlock, and bring the system crashing down. Fear, turmoil, violence and economic collapse would accompany such a breakdown — providing perfect conditions for fostering radical change. That was the theory.

That does sound like what we are seeing.

Patrick says

I had really never heard of it.

Embarrassingly, I first heard about it from Glenn Beck.

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Patrick says

I had really never heard of it.

And I should know better than to trust the Wikipedia these days. What a load of propaganda it has become, cancelling all points of view except The Narrative.

Patrick, if you check out the wikipedia page for the Professor Cloward, you will see the profile photo of him. That photo was taken when he was behind Bill Clinton when Clinton signed the Motor Voter Law.

And the Motor Voter Law is being exploited by states like California by allowing undocumented immigrants to easily register to vote and then vote. As well as allow illegal ballot harvesting using mail in ballots.

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ad says

Patrick, if you check out the wikipedia page for the Professor Cloward, you will see the profile photo of him. That photo was taken when he was behind Bill Clinton when Clinton signed the Motor Voter Law.

You'll like the documentary here:
https://patrick.net/post/1333429/2020-06-28-the-weathermen-and-their-big-money-backers-behind-it-all

DILLIGAF says

This is the irony underlying Beck’s current stance: The same doomsday sensibility that helps him appreciate the menace posed by Trump led him to massively exaggerate the menace posed by Obama—and thus to breed the hateful paranoia on which Trump now feeds.

And just like that the left fell in love with Glenn Beck...

DILLIGAF says

FuckCCP89 says

And just like that the left fell in love with Glenn Beck...

Glen Beck has as much credibility as Kudlow. God only knows which one is on the wagon on any given day.

They are both

Apparently, it doesn't matter to the left anymore.

DILLIGAF says

Remington Arms preps for bankruptcy sale to Navajo Nation

Nice, that makes the guns cheaper to buy. I don't believe you understand the type of investing I'm suggesting.