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Stocks... Good buys???


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2020 Mar 12, 4:12am   7,143 views  146 comments

by joshuatrio   ➕follow (4)   💰tip   ignore  

I was looking at buying Royal Carribean stock [RCL] this morning. Currently priced in around $39/share, where in the last year it's been between $100-130. Good buy?

Was thinking buy into the travel fear....

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1   WookieMan   2020 Mar 12, 4:26am  

I generally don't do individual stocks often, so take my advice as if it's coming from a novice, but someone who's about to cruise. I'd probably stay away short term now with this Europe travel ban. Remember it's spring break right now, basically a high revenue time for the industry. Yes the cruise fare itself accounts for a lot of revenue, but people ACTUALLY being on the ships spending is probably just as important.

I'm on a few groups/forums for my upcoming cruise and everyone is cancelling. Yes NCL (and all lines) will get to keep the cruise fare as the refund is a future credit, but that's it. No onboard spend, excursions, etc. revenue. It's going to be devastating for Q1. Doing mock bookings and seeing half a ship open for a spring break cruise (I've done them before) is mind boggling. I don't think anyone is going under, but the loss of onboard spend is going to be huge.

I'd stay away from Carnival given the Princess cruises and their CV issues. Those boats are going to be dead in the water revenue wise for a while. No one is going to want to go on them. That's a huge loss. RCL and NCL are probably the safer of the three is my somewhat educated guess.

One final thing, remember the cruise industry is highly used by the old. For my cruise, NCL just made it mandatory that anyone 70+ has to have a notarized letter from a doctor that they're healthy enough to travel with no underlying conditions. We embark in 9 days and this has to be done 7 days in advance. We're literally going to have nobody over 70 on this ship.

I'm actually looking forward to an empty ship.... no lines or bull shit. This is assuming Trump doesn't shut down travel to PR.
2   Shaman   2020 Mar 12, 6:52am  

joshuatrio says
I was looking at buying Royal Carribean stock [RCL] this morning. Currently priced in around $39/share, where in the last year it's been between $100-130. Good buy?

Was thinking buy into the travel fear....


My guess is that it’s just started its fall, with plenty more discounts to go. Nobody is going to want to ride a plague ship for months if not a year.
3   mell   2020 Mar 12, 7:18am  

Shaman says
joshuatrio says
I was looking at buying Royal Carribean stock [RCL] this morning. Currently priced in around $39/share, where in the last year it's been between $100-130. Good buy?

Was thinking buy into the travel fear....


My guess is that it’s just started its fall, with plenty more discounts to go. Nobody is going to want to ride a plague ship for months if not a year.


I'd agree here. While some select defensive stocks may be good buys here I'd avoid the travel industry. Go with biotech or agriculture or fertilizer or mining or defense instead. But ultimately trust your gut, contrarian bets can work well.
4   B.A.C.A.H.   2020 Mar 12, 7:38am  

Hah!

I haven't heard a single person say something like "never again" yet.

Heard it a lot 2001-2002 and 2009-2010. That'll be the Buy Signal.
5   mell   2020 Mar 12, 7:41am  

B.A.C.A.H. says
Hah!

I haven't heard a single person say something like "never again" yet.

Heard it a lot 2001-2002 and 2009-2010. That'll be the Buy Signal.


This is not an economic recession. Once the coronavirus subsides the market will go back up fast.
6   porkchopXpress   2020 Mar 12, 7:42am  

mell says
B.A.C.A.H. says
Hah!

I haven't heard a single person say something like "never again" yet.

Heard it a lot 2001-2002 and 2009-2010. That'll be the Buy Signal.


This is not an economic recession. Once the coronavirus subsides the market will go back up fast.
I think this will turn into an economic recession. I didn't used to think that, but now with oil the way it is and consumer sentiment in the toilet, I don't see how this doesn't become one.
7   mell   2020 Mar 12, 7:55am  

porkchopexpress says
mell says
B.A.C.A.H. says
Hah!

I haven't heard a single person say something like "never again" yet.

Heard it a lot 2001-2002 and 2009-2010. That'll be the Buy Signal.


This is not an economic recession. Once the coronavirus subsides the market will go back up fast.
I think this will turn into an economic recession. I didn't used to think that, but now with oil the way it is and consumer sentiment in the toilet, I don't see how this doesn't become one.


UE is at all time lows, the jobs numbers were terrific. This is by definition not an economic recession. I would agree that we will not return to the previous highs soon as people are spooked, I'd call it a correction. Low oil is great, the fixation of coupling oil prices to stocks is ridiculous. High oil prices usually mean inflation and we don't need that. Oil and shale will suffer no doubt, but most of the other companies in other sectors getting trashed have plenty of money and no reason to layoff people, probably the opposite. I also thought tech was a bit overvalued recently, but it has nowhere been near the 2007 or 2001 levels, the valuations were still fair wrt EPS for most firms.
8   WookieMan   2020 Mar 12, 7:56am  

porkchopexpress says
I think this will turn into an economic recession. I didn't used to think that, but now with oil the way it is and consumer sentiment in the toilet, I don't see how this doesn't become one.

I tend to agree. If you're young though, I'd be buying whatever I can like a mutha fucker. This will SHRED years off retirement assuming you don't retire during an event like this... lol. And yes, it is going to keep dropping at this point, but you're still buying at a low point now when you look at a chart 5-10 years from now.

The market will recover and likely quickly. But I'd be surprised to see it S&P or Dow hit peak levels again for the next 12-18 months. I could see this taking 2 years to fully work off. The magnitude of what is going on right now is insane. It's not logical, but it is what it is. It will recover and I'll be that much richer.
9   mell   2020 Mar 12, 7:58am  

WookieMan says
The market will recover and likely quickly. But I'd be surprised to see it S&P or Dow hit peak levels again for the next 12-18 months. I could see this taking 2 years to fully work off.


I think so too but mainly because prior high flying tech and hype stocks will be muted for a while and they make a majority of the indexes. This is actually good for value stocks that grow nicely on a sideways or slowly recovering market, whereas in a bull market everybody buys the hyped tech trannies. I mean in the recent frenzy profitable companies were tossed aside to buy the "growth" in highly unprofitable companies. Those chicken will come home to roost soon.
10   WookieMan   2020 Mar 12, 8:07am  

WookieMan says
But I'd be surprised to see it S&P or Dow hit peak levels again for the next 12-18 months.

It = the. God dammit!
11   Heraclitusstudent   2020 Mar 12, 10:56am  

joshuatrio says
Stocks... Good buys???


More like "Stocks... Good Bye!!!"
12   clambo   2020 Mar 12, 11:06am  

If I had a bunch of cash, I would buy stock mutual funds, there are many varieties, I own all of them.

If you want to buy a beaten down stock, Wells Fargo is the most likely candidate (WFC)
I hate the stock and the company, but it’s a near monopoly, one of the 4-5 large banks.
Banks generally are profitable. Buffet owns a lot of WFC and I bet he wishes he didn’t.

I like Alibaba, Roku, John Deere, Apple, Microsoft if I were looking for something in addition to mutual funds, but the funds own them too.
13   Heraclitusstudent   2020 Mar 12, 11:10am  

It's hard for banks to make money when the yield curve is flat to inverted.
14   Heraclitusstudent   2020 Mar 12, 11:18am  

I wouldn't touch a bank stock with a 6 feet pole.
15   B.A.C.A.H.   2020 Mar 12, 11:28am  

The reason I don't like banks, is because in their upside down world, deposits are liabilities and loans are assets.

That, and when they're too big to fail, they're not too big to be nationalized. Already happened.

I'm sure I'll be dissed off as a Simpleton for my simple mindedness. That's OK. Party On!
16   mell   2020 Mar 12, 12:09pm  

Tomorrow may be a green day - whether sustained or not is another question. May be a good dip buy here.
17   WookieMan   2020 Mar 12, 12:25pm  

mell says
Tomorrow may be a green day - whether sustained or not is another question. May be a good dip buy here.

Actually surprised the reaction hasn't been worse. Everything is pretty chill in suburban Chicagoland. I was pissed about the Europe ban last night, but I think people are taking it in stride here. Nice to know there are sane people.
18   mell   2020 Mar 12, 12:26pm  

WookieMan says
mell says
Tomorrow may be a green day - whether sustained or not is another question. May be a good dip buy here.

Actually surprised the reaction hasn't been worse. Everything is pretty chill in suburban Chicagoland. I was pissed about the Europe ban last night, but I think people are taking it in stride here. Nice to know there are sane people.


SF is mostly pretty chill too, but they have canceled most large gatherings and many work from home. So streets are nice and empty to drive or ride.
19   joshuatrio   2020 Mar 12, 12:41pm  

WookieMan says

Actually surprised the reaction hasn't been worse. Everything is pretty chill in suburban Chicagoland. I was pissed about the Europe ban last night, but I think people are taking it in stride here. Nice to know there are sane people.


Not down here in Atlanta. I went to Aldi to grab some dry goods. Store was mobbed. Lotta shelf stable goods were gone.

My goal was simply some extra rice/beans in case the supply chain got interrupted, as we always keep about a months supply worth of food in the house.

What was funny though, people were stocking up on shit like fruit loops and sugary processed shit. There were TONS of frozen veggies, whole grains and even meat available. All of of the healthy options were in plenty.

Why the hell do people stock up on SHIT?
20   Patrick   2020 Mar 12, 12:42pm  

I worry a bit about companies which are going under and not going to pay back their loans.

That means that the banks could all become insolvent, but then, the Fed exists to hand favored banks cash in exactly this kind of situation.
21   joshuatrio   2020 Mar 12, 12:45pm  

This is the Costco in Seaside, CA. Picture taken yesterday.

22   RWSGFY   2020 Mar 12, 12:50pm  

joshuatrio says
Why the hell do people stock up on SHIT?


Because this is what they eat regardless, duh.
23   Heraclitusstudent   2020 Mar 12, 1:16pm  

Dow takes another 10% on the chin.
24   joshuatrio   2020 Mar 12, 1:21pm  

Yeah, I think it'll bottom out in the next week or two.
25   zzyzzx   2020 Mar 12, 1:30pm  

joshuatrio says
What was funny though, people were stocking up on shit like fruit loops and sugary processed shit. There were TONS of frozen veggies, whole grains and even meat available. All of of the healthy options were in plenty.


Even more shocking when one considers that you probably live in what most people would consider to be a good neighborhood...
But there may be some logic in that the fruit loops won't go rotten for years where as the fresh fruit and vegetables will root pretty quickly.
26   RWSGFY   2020 Mar 12, 2:01pm  

Heraclitusstudent says
Dow takes another 10% on the chin.


27   Bd6r   2020 Mar 12, 2:02pm  

Heraclitusstudent says
Dow takes another 10% on the chin.

fake news, it is down more now
$100M question is: will the fed be able to inflate yet another bubble before the next elections?
28   RWSGFY   2020 Mar 12, 2:03pm  

rd6B says
Heraclitusstudent says
Dow takes another 10% on the chin.

fake news, it is down more now
$100M question is: will the fed be able to inflate yet another bubble before the next elections?


No, it takes longer.
29   mell   2020 Mar 12, 2:10pm  

U shaped recovery coming when cases start trending down in US and Europe.
30   zzyzzx   2020 Mar 12, 2:17pm  

Boeing down to $153.00 -1.84 (-1.19%) After hours: 5:06PM EDT
31   mell   2020 Mar 12, 2:20pm  

I'm sure we'll see a bounce tomorrow, the question is whether it's dead cat or that cat from the memes.
32   Tenpoundbass   2020 Mar 12, 2:21pm  

The best thing of all is Trump got a Market correction, now with plenty of room to grow. And he's golden, there's nothing that can be said, the market tanked due to Trump policies.
By May this thing will be gone, there's going to be a hyper rally through election season. On Election night, Trump will be bragging about the most historic gains in a few months.

The Liberals keep whooping themselves up good.
33   mell   2020 Mar 12, 2:22pm  

Tenpoundbass says
The best thing of all is Trump got a Market correction, now with plenty of room to grow. And he's golden, there's nothing that can be said, the market tanked due to Trump policies.
By May this thing will be gone, there's going to be a hyper rally through election season. On Election night, Trump will be bragging about the most historic gains in a few months.

The Liberals keep whooping themselves up good.


Def possible. The prediction was for this to peak in April at the latest.
34   Heraclitusstudent   2020 Mar 12, 2:23pm  

mell says
The best thing of all is Trump got a Market correction, now with plenty of room to grow. And he's golden


Maybe he's the dead cat...
35   joshuatrio   2020 Mar 12, 3:35pm  

zzyzzx says
But there may be some logic in that the fruit loops won't go rotten for years where as the fresh fruit and vegetables will root pretty quickly


Agree with your logic, but you can always fr if ze frozen vegetables which is what we keep a decent supply of. Not really concerned about the grid going down.
36   SunnyvaleCA   2020 Mar 12, 3:37pm  

joshuatrio says
I was looking at buying Royal Carribean stock [RCL] this morning. Currently priced in around $39/share, where in the last year it's been between $100-130. Good buy?

I'd say that the main danger is if they go bankrupt. Not necessarily out of business, but a restructuring where debt is expunged. In this case, stock holders are likely to have their shares massively diluted.
37   Booger   2020 Mar 12, 4:49pm  

CZR, and other casino stocks probably down quite a bit. They are going to sanitize all those slot machines.
38   HeadSet   2020 Mar 12, 6:25pm  

They are going to sanitize all those slot machines.

Yes, that would be bad if Granny caught and died of Covid-19 from the same slot machine that jackpotted her $1million.
39   HeadSet   2020 Mar 12, 6:28pm  

Stocks... Good buys???

Well, that Marathon Oil stock is still above what I paid for it a few days ago, even after the days of huge DOW plunges. I suspect the oil stocks will rapidly go back up when the Saudi-Russia feud ends.
40   Booger   2020 Mar 12, 6:39pm  

HeadSet says
Yes, that would be bad if Granny caught and died of Covid-19 from the same slot machine that jackpotted her $1million.


Not for her heirs!

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