patrick.net

Made a CD ladder from my roth 15 months ago and it's been painful to miss out on the gains. First one to mature was today and I suddenly have 50K to play with. I'm thinking I'm going to keep the powder dry and look to pick up some of those dividend aristocrats Rin mentioned after I can figure out their debt load, assuming one can do that in short order under the current circumstances. Some debts may pop, no?

Kept me from catching a falling knife the past 2 weeks...

Stay out of the market for a while, at least a month imo. Keep an eye on plastics.

PMack says

I dont feel ready to backup the truck yet summer is coming many will cash out, sell in May and go away.

I think those people have already cashed out.

Boeing now under $100

People dont get it, absent an announcement of a vaccine in the next couple weeks, this thing is going to persist for months if not a year and cause a depression.

This crisis is exposing all the lying and bullshit over the last 20 years. This will dramatically change the culture and people's perception of stability.

All will seem somewhat stable until someone huge blows up (ford, boeing) and then you will see a avalanche of defaults.

The US does not have endless money. When you see the CDS swaps for the United States start blowing out, that will be the last stage and final collapse.

Pay off all your debts, have a year of income in the bank and 3 months at home.

Invest in Baby supply companies in a month or two, after the bottom. Because 9 months from now, there will be a baby boomlet. What else are people going to do with all their free time?

Dholliday126 says

People dont get it, absent an announcement of a vaccine in the next couple weeks, this thing is going to persist for months if not a year and cause a depression.

I legitimately worry about a depression. At some point though we can't keep hiding. People will die and we'll just have to deal like we have in the distant past. Lock down the old and we can move on. Some young will die too in that process. Can't fear death. You can fucking get hit by a car tomorrow or have a gas leak and you get blown to bits. Life is an ongoing risk constantly.

WookieMan says

Dholliday126 says

People dont get it, absent an announcement of a vaccine in the next couple weeks, this thing is going to persist for months if not a year and cause a depression.

I legitimately worry about a depression. At some point though we can't keep hiding. People will die and we'll just have to deal like we have in the distant past. Lock down the old and we can move on. Some young will die too in that process. Can't fear death. You can fucking get hit by a car tomorrow or have a gas leak and you get blown to bits. Life is an ongoing risk constantly.

I think the markets will stabilize and go back up as this will become the new normal until it goes away. This is still no worse than a bad flu season, people will eventually ignore measures if they become too drastic. The issue for the market is not so much the virus but the measures taken curing healthy economic activity. Mild to critical ratio is now 95/5 as more testing returns more positive results. The real ratio is probably around 99/1 or less, similar to the flu.

Dholliday126 says

People dont get it, absent an announcement of a vaccine in the next couple weeks, this thing is going to persist for months if not a year and cause a depression.

Maybe not. If hydroxychloroquine can really alleviate the disease as much as a French study claims, hospitals may not get overwhelmed after all.

But we should absolutely bring back Ellis Island style quarantines for all international arrivals. Even one day would help immensely. We wouldn't catch the asymptomatic people, but at least it would be a start back towards sanity.

I bought the dip and today was a good day - will take a long time to recover to get close to the prior portfolio values but at least a cure / remedy is in sight now, maybe then the panic will subside and people will be allowed to go about their lives again.

Patrick says

But we should absolutely bring back Ellis Island style quarantines for all international arrivals.

It would require a much bigger island though.

mell says

I bought the dip and today was a good day - will take a long time to recover to get close to the prior portfolio values but at least a cure / remedy is in sight now, maybe then the panic will subside and people will be allowed to go about their lives again.

I'm not Mr. Doomsday, but I still have some serious worries about how this recovers.

I've mentioned in other threads, states and municipalities that have sales taxes are getting destroyed right now. There are recessions, but we've never seen entire industries completely shut down like this and for this long of a period. Restaurants, amusements, sporting events, etc. That revenue is lost. Gone. I don't even think it was this bad in the great depression. My history is bad, but I'm guessing there was no sales tax then either, and even without that, restaurants and most businesses that could, stayed open.

Most cities/towns struggle to even balance a budget with the taxes they get. Pensions are short. This isn't a prediction, but I think things get dramatically worse before they get better. Things need to open back up April 1st with virus numbers going down. If they don't, then there are big problems. This is coming from someone that has had the falling knife go through their hand already buying stocks 10 or so days ago.

WookieMan says

mell says

I bought the dip and today was a good day - will take a long time to recover to get close to the prior portfolio values but at least a cure / remedy is in sight now, maybe then the panic will subside and people will be allowed to go about their lives again.

I'm not Mr. Doomsday, but I still have some serious worries about how this recovers.

I've mentioned in other threads, states and municipalities that have sales taxes are getting destroyed right now. There are recessions, but we've never seen entire industries completely shut down like this and for this long of a period. Restaurants, amusements, sporting events, etc. That revenue is lost. Gone. I don't even think it was this bad in the great depression. My history is bad, but I'm guessing there was no sales tax then either, and even without that, restaurants and most businesses that could, stayed open.

Most cities/...

Yeah I bought only biotech stocks. Well there's still take-out and it's not nation wide but I agree, certain industries will be reeling, half a quarter lost. But no doubt it will hit smaller ones harder than the chains, and those make up the market. I think they won't re-open fully before mid-April or May, but maybe on a county by county basis. But also there is progress in bringing effective meds and those can be brought on much faster than a vaccine. If they can deliver meds at least so effective that they keep most out of the hospital the situation is solved and there will be a huge rebound. May take a couple of months but certainly much less time than a vaccine.

WookieMan says

Things need to open back up April 1st with virus numbers going down.

College and primary school closures (likely in California) may allow us to get through the summer, but once schools open again (in the fall) we're back to (not quite) square one.

zzyzzx says

Boeing now under $100

Still a 100$ to go, that company shareholders are going bust, their brand is kaput I'm mot flying a Boeing airplane anytime soon, not that I fly often for that matter...

PMack says

zzyzzx says

Boeing now under $100

Still a 100$ to go, that company shareholders are going bust, their brand is kaput I'm mot flying a Boeing airplane anytime soon, not that I fly often for that matter...

Why? The Max was a failure but the other planes are rock solid.

Futures flat again. It's almost that the market has now adjusted to the new normal for a while and realized there are some crazy bargains here. I think the big volatility is gone.

All CA retail is shut. But amazon stock, everyone will shop there.

Because insane incompetence of Democrats here who are too busy changing bathroom signs instead of solving problems.

EBGuy says

Anyone tempted to buy SLV (or for that matter, silver bullion)? The gold/silver ratio is way out of whack. As always, a gold/silver ratio correction doesn't necessarily mean silver will rise...

Bought today (not SLV, but other gambling) when silver below $12/ozt. Who knows what the future brings, but given the low price and the extreme ratio compared to gold, the timing looks right to me.

TEOTWAWKI says

It would require a much bigger island though.

Or less immigration..

Boeing down 3.5x and there is a question that they won't be bailed out? I'm surprised at you!

I still haven't bought anything yet but that looks a bit enticing.

Fortwaynemobile says

All CA retail is shut. But amazon stock, everyone will shop there.

Walmart delivers too.

mell says

Why? The Max was a failure but the other planes are rock solid.

Only in the sense that they failed to insist that 3rd world airlines properly train their pilots. They were too PC.

TEOTWAWKI says

All CA retail is shut. But amazon stock, everyone will shop there.

Grocery's are open, no?

just_dregalicious says

TEOTWAWKI says

All CA retail is shut. But amazon stock, everyone will shop there.

Grocery's are open, no?

Not my quote, but yes, grocery stores are open. There are even special days and times dedicated for geezer shopping.

I watched minute 5-15 of Gavin Gruesome speaking an hour ago on utube. I turned it off, I can't stand to hear that fucker speak.

Morgan Stanley Sees U.S. GDP Plunging 30% in Second Quarter
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-22/morgan-stanley-sees-u-s-economy-plunging-30-in-second-quarter

U.S. Jobless Rate May Soar to 30%, Fed’s Bullard Says
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-22/fed-s-bullard-says-u-s-jobless-rate-may-soar-to-30-in-2q

We haven't seen the real blow yet.
There will be massive financial fallout.

epitaph says

Keep an eye on plastics.

Could you elaborate?

Do you mean credit card companies, as a proxy for consumer spending? Or, literally plastic suppliers?

joshuatrio says

I was looking at buying Royal Carribean stock [RCL] this morning. Currently priced in around $39/share, where in the last year it's been between $100-130. Good buy?

Was thinking buy into the travel fear....

Yeah you should have bought..it was a great buy at $39......lol $23... 10 days later

komputodo says

joshuatrio says

I was looking at buying Royal Carribean stock [RCL] this morning. Currently priced in around $39/share, where in the last year it's been between $100-130. Good buy?

Was thinking buy into the travel fear....

Yeah you should have bought..it was a great buy at $39......lol $23... 10 days later

Making my call into NCL today to see how difficult it is to get the cash refund for my trip instead of a future cruise credit. They bumped the offer since I last posted for an additional 20% off any future cruise. They also removed the wording from their letter that you can still get a cash refund. But you can still find it on their website.

My gut says stay away from the cruise lines right now. Too risky. I don't think any of them are getting back out there until June at this point, meaning cruising with passengers. Loyalist will get out and cruise still, but new customer growth is going to plummet and even the loyal customers are holding off on future cruises. Have to remember a ton of their revenue comes from onboard spending and price gouging the excursions they offer. Not just base fares.

Any bet on cruise lines, if they make it, could be years before they recover. You could do well long term, but at this point one of big 3 could go under. Disclaimer: Bought NCL at $22 on 3/9/20 to be honest. My comments aren't out of bitterness, as I'm holding whether it goes to zero or $80. Misjudged this stupid virus. Oh well, was with money I was willing to lose.

Perhaps we can pool our funds to buy a cruise ship as they come out of bankruptcy. We can hit the high seas as the Peoples Republic of Patrickistan.

APOCALYPSEFUCKisShostikovitch says

passengers aren't fucking or drinking.

Good luck with that. I was under the impression that cruise meant fuck and drink in latin.

Patrick says

WineHorror1 says

How do you bet the Dow as a whole?

Index funds, like VTSMX

Yes, I like Vanguard's funds like Total Stock Market Index Fund which matches the Wilshire 5000. Vanguard's ETF for Wilshire 5000 goes under symbol VTI.

For an ETF for the Dow 30, SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (symbol : DIA).

I bought SPY at $232 a share, down 32% from all time high last high. Hope to make a major buy when it reaches around 44% below all time high.

As far as cruise lines, I checked Guru Focus for Norwegian Cruise Line. Its Altman Z score has always been in distressed zone for the last 15 years.

I see Norwegian being the first to go bankrupt if the cruise lines start to fall. However, if this is not a ChiCom biological war and AntiFa does not go around and try to spread the virus until election day, then I see an all-clear by 1 June 2020, and Disney, airlines, cruise ships, hotels, etc. back to normal business no later mid June.

The first half of 2020 will be disastrous as far as earnings reports but second half the earnings will bounce back. I suspect for 2020 we'll see about at least a 5 to 7% drop in GDP compared to 2019.

APOCALYPSEFUCKisShostikovitch says

These fucking boats will be available for nearly free at auction once they go bust.

Best investors just buy them, outfit them with harpoons and Gatling guns and hot chicks and fit them out as pirate hunter ships that lure in pirates and sink them for entertainment, when the passengers aren't fucking or drinking.

Nothing wrong with that.

MM1 says

back to normal business no later mid June.

Will it be normal or a NEW NORMAL with a few more civil rights lost, more people broke. and even less trusting of the govt and the media.

As long as Democrats keep screaming RACISM in order facilitate outsourcing to China and insourcing tens of millions of illegals, we are fucked.

The Democratic Party should be disbanded for their utter failure to protect the working class, their sole mission.

Patrick says

The Democratic Party should be disbanded for their utter failure to protect the working class, their sole mission.

Give it time.... It's coming. At least a complete reorganization at minimum. We'll see what it looks like.

The Democrat rank and file should have abandoned the party almost 4 years ago when the corruption stank to high heaven and even the media couldn't hide it.

They totally stabbed Bernie in the back then, and they did it again this time.

Patrick says

They totally stabbed Bernie in the back then, and they did it again this time.

Eh... I actually think they did the right thing. Bernie is and wasn't electable. Hillary was their best option (which is scary). Bernie doesn't win one state in 2016 that Trump won against Hillary. The outcome would have been even worse for the Dems. I'd call it more a kick to the nuts that he likely saw coming. He's kind of a moron to think things would go differently this time.

He's also super sensitive. A debate would have made him look like a clown against a real estate developer/business person. Bernie has no understanding how the real world works having been a career politician. You can run a business and understand politics. Rarely are there politicians that understand both.