patrick.net

HeadSet says

joshuatrio says

NCL got hammered. Was down to $9 earlier today. Thinking this might be the cruise line to stock up on. Only 17 ships to maintain and aren't shitty Carnival ships.

I agree.

Be careful. I'll try to let you know Monday when I make my call to get a $4,500 refund. For some reason they won't give cash back refunds until then... seems fishy. I think I said this in another thread, if I get the hard sell to do a future cruise credit and they up it over the 125% of original fare offer they've already made, then they're fucking running out of cash and want to keep mine. These fucking boats are huge and can't just sit at a dock on shore power without tons of ongoing maintenance and no revenue.

I tend to agree that their fleet size is a benefit on the flagship line, but I don't know about their other brands at all (Oceana & Regent). People I've met on the 3 cruises I've done with NCL are very brand loyal, so I think they have that going for them over Carnival. I did my first and last Carnival cruise last spring break, let's put it that way. Royal has the best ships though hands down. They price their cruises higher out of the big 3, and that could be a negative as it's likely necessary to cover the debt on their huge as mother fucking ships.

I bought some NCL maybe 10 days ago now. So I've already taken a bath on it, but it was a long term hold purchase and nothing I can't afford to lose. No panic here. But I can't recall in my lifetime the entire cruise industry shutting down all of their fleet. For 30 days. If this goes to 60 days or beyond then then I'm not sure some of these companies can stay afloat ;)

Note: I'm generally not an individual stock investor, so take this comment with a grain of salt. I buy on gut feeling which is pure stupidity....lol, but I'm still in the green since opening my account 10 years ago, so I'm not failing so far.

IWOG would have been posting how he shorted the ETFs or went to cash a month ago because he knew this was going to happen

MM1 says

If not, then this could be a bioengineering virus or bioweapon meant to disrupt commerce as well as the election, which means its a gift to the Biden campaign.

You are thinking that TRUMP SUPPORTERS will switch to biden because they believe he will be the guy to rebuild the economy and save the country from corona? GOOD GOD MAN...how could anyone think that, let alone say it in public....

komputodo says

You are thinking that TRUMP SUPPORTERS will switch to biden because they believe he will be the guy to rebuild the economy and save the country from corona? GOOD GOD MAN...how could anyone think that, let alone say it in public....

Lol, right? Despite this panic that the media created, Biden has no chance of getting elected. Can you imagine deadbeat Bernie trying to lead our nation out of this?

Dont catch the proverbial falling knife. But eh your money I ploughed some money into integrated oil so im in no position to tell you dont do it. Oh and dont put more money in the stockmarket that you cant afford to loose in that casino.

PMack says

Dont catch the proverbial falling knife. But eh your money I ploughed some money into integrated oil so im in no position to tell you dont do it. Oh and dont put more money in the stockmarket that you cant afford to loose in that casino.

I've been waiting to pull the trigger on oil.
Looking at OKE, XOM, DIG

I do expect that as soon as the curve of deaths crests, the market will rally bigly, even if there has been some severe damage to the economy overall.

I've been waiting to pull the trigger on oil.
Looking at OKE, XOM, DIG

My Marathon MRO buy last week is still ahead despite the 3 huge stock crashes. I think oil stocks are down mostly on the Saudi-Russia tiff.

It's definitely too early to buy back in. If California keeps public schools closed until fall we're in for a doozy of a recession.

https://www.sfgate.com/news/education/article/California-governor-Most-schools-likely-out-15138882.php

noobster says

PMack says

Dont catch the proverbial falling knife. But eh your money I ploughed some money into integrated oil so im in no position to tell you dont do it. Oh and dont put more money in the stockmarket that you cant afford to loose in that casino.

I've been waiting to pull the trigger on oil.
Looking at OKE, XOM, DIG

My only advice is stay away from frackers, they're going belly up...! I would stick with the majors mega caps: Exxon like you mentionned, Shell, Suncor( long position ), Chevron, BP, Total and to an extent Valero( refineries only) are safer bets.

How do you bet the Dow as a whole?

Mnuchin Warns Virus Could Yield 20% Jobless Rate Without Action.

Red spots contagion extends to credit markets.
Here we go again.
"Demand for U.S. dollars is so high that now there’s a squeeze in credit markets. And the Federal Reserve knows it.

Big corporations from beer brewer Anheuser-Busch InBev SA to Boeing Co. are drawing down billions from their credit lines. Fearful of margin calls and flash crashes, lenders are piling on reserves. Adding to the hair-raising market volatility, banks that typically provide short-term dollar loans are stepping back.

To ease the strain in dollar borrowing, the Fed took action Tuesday, restarting a commercial paper funding facility for U.S. corporates. It also allowed banks and broker-dealers that trade directly with the Fed to borrow cash secured against some stocks and higher-rated bonds.

But that doesn’t do much to ease funding tightness overseas. For evidence, look no further than currency swaps, which measure how expensive it is to borrow in dollars. If a Japanese bank wants to offer a dollar loan to a client, the bank, pocketful of yen deposits, would typically lend its yen in exchange for an American bank’s dollars using currency swaps. This practice is common across Asian markets — and the costs are soaring.

Since the global financial crisis, foreign banks’ dollar lending has ballooned to $12 trillion from $10 trillion, the International Monetary Fund estimates. "

Yup ppl pull the trigger NOW on your best bet. You will be rich beyond your wildest dreams. It’s not like China is a manufacturer nation and the US is a service/consumer nation. After weeks/months of the US being weaned off consumerism and told to refrain from the service industry... the U.S. won’t go back to spending like banshees, throwing money around like confetti and living the flaunty lifestyle and priming the pump.

It’s over ppl. It was a massive bubble and it met the most giant ‘cocking-fucking pin’ in history. You think you are hard enuff to call this. You’re not... because u asking for investment advice on this polarized, basement-dweller, triggered-troll forum. Stop with the stupid political 1-up man-ship. Grow up. This forum has become a fucking travesty. Congratulations! YOU made it that way. I hope your pension/401K goes to zero. Your bickering, blue/red focus on stupid shit and not watching the big picture is what is wrong with this country. Not Trump... not Obama.

Fuck me Patrick close this piece of shit down. Have you no honour?

DE-LE-VE-RA-GING!!!!

junkmail says

Fuck me Patrick close this piece of shit down. Have you no honour?

OK, Doomer.

junkmail says

Yup ppl pull the trigger NOW on your best bet. You will be rich beyond your wildest dreams. It’s not like China is a manufacturer nation and the US is a service/consumer nation. After weeks/months of the US being weaned off consumerism and told to refrain from the service industry... the U.S. won’t go back to spending like banshees, throwing money around like confetti and living the flaunty lifestyle and priming the pump.

It’s over ppl. It was a massive bubble and it met the most giant ‘cocking-fucking pin’ in history. You think you are hard enuff to call this. You’re not... because u asking for investment advice on this polarized, basement-dweller, triggered-troll forum. Stop with the stupid political 1-up man-ship. Grow up. This forum has become a fucking travesty. Congratulations! YOU made it that way. I hope your pension/401K goes to zero. Your bickering, blue/red focus on stupid shit and not watching the big picture is what is wrong with this country. Not Trump... not Obama...

Would you like to talk to a professional about your feewings?

Check out some of the casino stocks! Fire sale prices! CZR
$3.23 -1.87/sh (-36.6667%)

Oh boy...

WineHorror1 says

How do you bet the Dow as a whole?

Index funds, like VTSMX

I mean if everyday dow drops by 10%, then we will never go down to zero. I bought $2000 worth of VOO yesterday.

Heraclitusstudent says

Oh boy...

Cannibal anarchy depression in 3...2...1

Anyone tempted to buy SLV (or for that matter, silver bullion)? The gold/silver ratio is way out of whack. As always, a gold/silver ratio correction doesn't necessarily mean silver will rise...

I dont feel ready to backup the truck yet summer is coming many will cash out, sell in May and go away.

Made a CD ladder from my roth 15 months ago and it's been painful to miss out on the gains. First one to mature was today and I suddenly have 50K to play with. I'm thinking I'm going to keep the powder dry and look to pick up some of those dividend aristocrats Rin mentioned after I can figure out their debt load, assuming one can do that in short order under the current circumstances. Some debts may pop, no?

Kept me from catching a falling knife the past 2 weeks...

Stay out of the market for a while, at least a month imo. Keep an eye on plastics.

PMack says

I dont feel ready to backup the truck yet summer is coming many will cash out, sell in May and go away.

I think those people have already cashed out.

Boeing now under $100

People dont get it, absent an announcement of a vaccine in the next couple weeks, this thing is going to persist for months if not a year and cause a depression.

This crisis is exposing all the lying and bullshit over the last 20 years. This will dramatically change the culture and people's perception of stability.

All will seem somewhat stable until someone huge blows up (ford, boeing) and then you will see a avalanche of defaults.

The US does not have endless money. When you see the CDS swaps for the United States start blowing out, that will be the last stage and final collapse.

Pay off all your debts, have a year of income in the bank and 3 months at home.

Invest in Baby supply companies in a month or two, after the bottom. Because 9 months from now, there will be a baby boomlet. What else are people going to do with all their free time?

Dholliday126 says

People dont get it, absent an announcement of a vaccine in the next couple weeks, this thing is going to persist for months if not a year and cause a depression.

I legitimately worry about a depression. At some point though we can't keep hiding. People will die and we'll just have to deal like we have in the distant past. Lock down the old and we can move on. Some young will die too in that process. Can't fear death. You can fucking get hit by a car tomorrow or have a gas leak and you get blown to bits. Life is an ongoing risk constantly.

WookieMan says

Dholliday126 says

People dont get it, absent an announcement of a vaccine in the next couple weeks, this thing is going to persist for months if not a year and cause a depression.

I legitimately worry about a depression. At some point though we can't keep hiding. People will die and we'll just have to deal like we have in the distant past. Lock down the old and we can move on. Some young will die too in that process. Can't fear death. You can fucking get hit by a car tomorrow or have a gas leak and you get blown to bits. Life is an ongoing risk constantly.

I think the markets will stabilize and go back up as this will become the new normal until it goes away. This is still no worse than a bad flu season, people will eventually ignore measures if they become too drastic. The issue for the market is not so much the virus but the measures taken curing healthy economic activity. Mild to critical ratio is now 95/5 as more testing returns more positive results. The real ratio is probably around 99/1 or less, similar to the flu.

Dholliday126 says

People dont get it, absent an announcement of a vaccine in the next couple weeks, this thing is going to persist for months if not a year and cause a depression.

Maybe not. If hydroxychloroquine can really alleviate the disease as much as a French study claims, hospitals may not get overwhelmed after all.

But we should absolutely bring back Ellis Island style quarantines for all international arrivals. Even one day would help immensely. We wouldn't catch the asymptomatic people, but at least it would be a start back towards sanity.

I bought the dip and today was a good day - will take a long time to recover to get close to the prior portfolio values but at least a cure / remedy is in sight now, maybe then the panic will subside and people will be allowed to go about their lives again.

Patrick says

But we should absolutely bring back Ellis Island style quarantines for all international arrivals.

It would require a much bigger island though.

mell says

I bought the dip and today was a good day - will take a long time to recover to get close to the prior portfolio values but at least a cure / remedy is in sight now, maybe then the panic will subside and people will be allowed to go about their lives again.

I'm not Mr. Doomsday, but I still have some serious worries about how this recovers.

I've mentioned in other threads, states and municipalities that have sales taxes are getting destroyed right now. There are recessions, but we've never seen entire industries completely shut down like this and for this long of a period. Restaurants, amusements, sporting events, etc. That revenue is lost. Gone. I don't even think it was this bad in the great depression. My history is bad, but I'm guessing there was no sales tax then either, and even without that, restaurants and most businesses that could, stayed open.

Most cities/towns struggle to even balance a budget with the taxes they get. Pensions are short. This isn't a prediction, but I think things get dramatically worse before they get better. Things need to open back up April 1st with virus numbers going down. If they don't, then there are big problems. This is coming from someone that has had the falling knife go through their hand already buying stocks 10 or so days ago.

WookieMan says

mell says

I bought the dip and today was a good day - will take a long time to recover to get close to the prior portfolio values but at least a cure / remedy is in sight now, maybe then the panic will subside and people will be allowed to go about their lives again.

I'm not Mr. Doomsday, but I still have some serious worries about how this recovers.

I've mentioned in other threads, states and municipalities that have sales taxes are getting destroyed right now. There are recessions, but we've never seen entire industries completely shut down like this and for this long of a period. Restaurants, amusements, sporting events, etc. That revenue is lost. Gone. I don't even think it was this bad in the great depression. My history is bad, but I'm guessing there was no sales tax then either, and even without that, restaurants and most businesses that could, stayed open.

Most cities/...

Yeah I bought only biotech stocks. Well there's still take-out and it's not nation wide but I agree, certain industries will be reeling, half a quarter lost. But no doubt it will hit smaller ones harder than the chains, and those make up the market. I think they won't re-open fully before mid-April or May, but maybe on a county by county basis. But also there is progress in bringing effective meds and those can be brought on much faster than a vaccine. If they can deliver meds at least so effective that they keep most out of the hospital the situation is solved and there will be a huge rebound. May take a couple of months but certainly much less time than a vaccine.

WookieMan says

Things need to open back up April 1st with virus numbers going down.

College and primary school closures (likely in California) may allow us to get through the summer, but once schools open again (in the fall) we're back to (not quite) square one.

zzyzzx says

Boeing now under $100

Still a 100$ to go, that company shareholders are going bust, their brand is kaput I'm mot flying a Boeing airplane anytime soon, not that I fly often for that matter...

PMack says

zzyzzx says

Boeing now under $100

Still a 100$ to go, that company shareholders are going bust, their brand is kaput I'm mot flying a Boeing airplane anytime soon, not that I fly often for that matter...

Why? The Max was a failure but the other planes are rock solid.