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Housing tanking in San Jose Metro:

By BayArea follow BayArea   2019 Aug 30, 9:08pm 951 views   22 comments   watch   nsfw   quote   share    


Zillow showing a -10.5% decline in home price YoY with a -12% forecast for the upcoming year in San Jose.

I’m seeing something I haven’t seen in years: Houses are sitting and prices are being reduced.

Market temperature is coooold.




@Patrick
1   Hircus   ignore (0)   2019 Aug 30, 10:13pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

I've been kinda wanting to buy a cheap shack in the south bay for a while...god damn, I may actually get a chance in a couple years.
2   BayArea   ignore (1)   2019 Aug 31, 8:05am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Well, you might be able to pick one up for 20% off peak next year. Likely wont be a cheap shack.
3   Hircus   ignore (0)   2019 Aug 31, 1:39pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Seems like right now about 750k in SJ gets you a reasonable SFH that appears to be in decent shape via looking at pics. Granted, they aren't great neighborhoods and don't have good local schools, but that isn't always a big deal.

There's some in the mid to low 600's too, but below 700 they seem to mostly have sagging roofs, fire damage, no interior pictures (likely has a rouge tenant who would destroy it when you attempt to evict) or other stuff that may not be worth the modest 100k discount.

If decent SFHs appear at the 600'ish range in a yr or 2, I will consider it. I'm doubtful though.
4   Ceffer   ignore (4)   2019 Aug 31, 1:46pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

$750K? Hope it already comes with the metal bars on the windows.
5   BayArea   ignore (1)   2019 Sep 3, 7:09am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

$750k in SJ does not get you a “reasonable” SFH.

It will get you a shack in a neighborhood with a high crime rate.
6   exfatguy   ignore (0)   2019 Sep 3, 11:03am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

95123 doesn't seem to have gotten the memo. I'm not seeing a downward trend at all, at least in terms of asking prices.
7   BayArea   ignore (1)   2019 Sep 3, 8:02pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

exfatguy says
95123 doesn't seem to have gotten the memo. I'm not seeing a downward trend at all, at least in terms of asking prices.


Asking prices don’t factor into the index, they are completely irrelevant.
8   Patrick   ignore (1)   2019 Sep 3, 8:09pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

BayArea says
exfatguy says
95123 doesn't seem to have gotten the memo. I'm not seeing a downward trend at all, at least in terms of asking prices.


Asking prices don’t factor into the index, thy are completely irrelevant.


Worse, even. Asking prices in California are deliberate fraud.

The published asking price is just one more mean-spirited manipulation of the buyer. It may be set lower than the seller's agent would actually accept. Yet somehow this is not illegal, whereas if you advertised a toaster for a certain price and then refused to accept that price, you could indeed be prosecuted for bait and switch.
9   BayArea   ignore (1)   2019 Sep 3, 8:16pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Agreed Patrick, and you’ve been very vocal about that point over the years here.

It’s one big manipulative fraud festival at every corner of the process.

I am curious however. What would have to happen for you to buy?
10   Hircus   ignore (0)   2019 Sep 3, 10:10pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Ceffer says
$750K? Hope it already comes with the metal bars on the windows.
BayArea says
$750k in SJ does not get you a “reasonable” SFH.

It will get you a shack in a neighborhood with a high crime rate.


I did mention the neighborhoods & schools aren't great?

Is there something you know about SJ that I don't? IMO SJ just doesn't have any bad ghettos.

And yes, I feel many of the 750k houses are in very reasonable condition. These are decent middle class homes that are in decent shape and likely don't need any major repairs. Not sure what isn't reasonable about those?

I'm not sure what standard you two are comparing against here.

This is a "shack"?
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1294-Clemence-Ave-San-Jose-CA-95122/19715992_zpid/
11   BayArea   ignore (1)   2019 Sep 3, 11:10pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Oh oh, I guess we have someone on the site that isn’t familiar with East San Jo 😬

I hope it’s just you and you won’t bring any family along to endanger?
13   BayArea   ignore (1)   2019 Sep 4, 7:12am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Its not as bad as you go south but the schools are equally aweful.

Read my lips: Nobody wants to live in East San Jo
14   The_Weeping_Ayatollah   ignore (5)   2019 Sep 4, 7:15am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Hircus says
Ceffer says
$750K? Hope it already comes with the metal bars on the windows.
BayArea says
$750k in SJ does not get you a “reasonable” SFH.

It will get you a shack in a neighborhood with a high crime rate.


I did mention the neighborhoods & schools aren't great?

Is there something you know about SJ that I don't? IMO SJ just doesn't have any bad ghettos.

And yes, I feel many of the 750k houses are in very reasonable condition. These are decent middle class homes that are in decent shape and likely don't need any major repairs. Not sure what isn't reasonable about those?

I'm not sure what standard you two are comparing against here.

This is a "shack"?
https://www.zillow.com/homed...


Holy cow, how did the manage to squeeze 3 bdr / 2 bath into 1200 sqf?
15   clambo   ignore (5)   2019 Sep 7, 9:29am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

This is a 5000 square foot place in Aptos, CA which is a nice neighborhood but at the extreme edge of commute distance to Silicon valley

My friend sells these and she said to me that "the market is a little down lately"=not so easy to sell absurdly priced houses anymore.
16   Fortwaynemobile   ignore (2)   2019 Sep 7, 9:31am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Trump started scaring Chinese investors. So they are getting out of CA.
17   BayArea   ignore (1)   2019 Sep 7, 11:39am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Fortwaynemobile says
Trump started scaring Chinese investors. So they are getting out of CA.


I recall reading that those assholes were responsible for around 7% of the Bay Area market in recent years during the run-up
18   The_Weeping_Ayatollah   ignore (5)   2019 Sep 7, 11:45am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

clambo says
This is a 5000 square foot place in Aptos, CA which is a nice neighborhood but at the extreme edge of commute distance to Silicon valley


I'd say one has to be fucking insane to commute from Aptos.

Nice beach town, though.
19   Ceffer   ignore (4)   2019 Sep 7, 11:54am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Iranian_Oil_Burse says
I'd say one has to be fucking insane to commute from Aptos.


Why Aptos isn't even higher in price. Almost 'reasonable' (compared to the spectrum of Cali Coastal reasonable) for what you get to be close to the ocean compared to other nearby comps. I think Scott's Valley would be about the most masochistic HiWay 17 commute I would ever want to attempt, but we did know a couple whose wife commuted from Aptos to Fremont for several years. Her daughter lived in Santa Clara, though, and she would often stay over, and she could adjust her commute somewhat outside of the worst hours.

There are a lot of homes that are second homes in Aptos, and like a lot of resort/retirement/second home places, many of them stay empty a good bit of the time.

We went to an open house on a $2.5 mill fully furnished view lot overlooking the ocean. For such an old home, it looked pretty nice. The Realtor said that it had been bought 30 years ago by a couple from Sacramento who only visited one weekend a year to celebrate their anniversary. The children were selling it as part of the estate.
20   BayArea   ignore (1)   2019 Sep 7, 12:07pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Fuck that family
21   The_Weeping_Ayatollah   ignore (5)   2019 Sep 7, 12:53pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Ceffer says
commuted from Aptos to Fremont for several years.


Lock her up in the mental asylum.
22   clambo   ignore (5)   2019 Sep 7, 5:25pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Ceffer, this particular location is behind the Aptos "village" so it's not really near a beach and probably has no view of the ocean (some do if they're high enough elevation)

Anyone who desires to pay $19,000+ per year ad infinitum in property taxes is going to love it.

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