« prev   random   next »

1
0

Silver .... buy?

By joshuatrio following x   2019 May 22, 4:08am 389 views   27 comments   watch   nsfw   quote     share    


Anyone here think silver is a solid buy right now? I've been watching the trends and now seems like a decent time... Curious what others think.

2   Blue   ignore (0)   2019 May 22, 11:02am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (1)   quote   flag        

Its not so profitable in the long run. Often lot of times the metals it self do not produce any. Its a leverage if they are in mine. Metals are believed to be inflation hedge investment. But again there are better alternatives for inflation hedge that includes stock indexes, commodities, RE, TIPs etc.
3   EBGuy   ignore (0)   2019 May 22, 12:51pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Gold to silver ratio is 88. One of them has to give soon, but which one...
4   NuttBoxer   ignore (2)   2019 May 22, 12:56pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Blue says
there are better alternatives for inflation hedge that includes stock indexes, commodities, RE, TIPs etc.


How do different types of paper protect against inflation? They have no value outside of their fiat currency. If currency collapses, so do they.
5   NuttBoxer   ignore (2)   2019 May 22, 12:59pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

EBGuy says
Gold to silver ratio is 88. One of them has to give soon, but which one...


It's been at the top for a LONG time. Future move will be down as silver gains on gold. It's a good investment if you're willing to hold. Gold and silver are long term investments. I'd buy and hold until economy is allowed to really recover. Swamp on the highs/lows for the ratio to increase investment without spending more.
6   Goran_K   ignore (2)   2019 May 22, 1:00pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

joshuatrio says
Anyone here think silver is a solid buy right now? I've been watching the trends and now seems like a decent time... Curious what others think.



I've been buying the past few months. I think a good wealth portfolio should have precious metals as a hedge.
7   Quigley   ignore (0)   2019 May 22, 1:02pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Precious metals tend to fall during good economic times and rise during bad economic times. The biggest spike in recent years was at the pit of the last Recession. Pretty great times for gold! Now not so much. Silver is just not exciting.
8   EBGuy   ignore (0)   2019 May 22, 1:14pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Quigley says
Silver is just not exciting.

Don't tell the duck. I think he had to rent a Brinks truck last time he cashed in.
That said, trading in a retirement account seems more palatable given that it's taxed as a collectible.
9   clambo   ignore (4)   2019 May 23, 6:07am   ↑ like (3)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Don't buy silver nor gold; they pay you no interest nor dividends.

Silver was $47 a few years ago; I remember buying some of an ETF because my friend was yelling at me to buy silver in 2010. The ETF was called SLVR and I later sold it and made some lunch money.

If you are worried about the value of the US dollar falling, look into a bank account with Swiss Francs.

When my shares of AAPL split 7:1 I wondered if my friend's coins ever multiplied themselves in his safe.
10   NuttBoxer   ignore (2)   2019 May 23, 1:09pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

clambo says
When my shares of AAPL split 7:1 I wondered if my friend's coins ever multiplied themselves in his safe.


What was your realized gain after accounting for inflation? Not something you have to worry about with gold/silver. If you want to multiply your ounces without spending more, trade at the highs and lows of the gold/silver ratio. But regardless, it is LONG term investment, think years...
11   clambo   ignore (4)   2019 May 23, 4:45pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

My unrealized gain is gigantic; my friend's loss is only huge since he bought silver for $45+ , he's way underwater on his gamble on silver.

I won't sell shares of AAPL until I'm older.
12   NuttBoxer   ignore (2)   2019 May 24, 7:42am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

clambo says
My unrealized gain is gigantic; my friend's loss is only huge since he bought silver for $45+ , he's way underwater on his gamble on silver.

I won't sell shares of AAPL until I'm older.


So you don't know.

If your friend bought silver for the right reason, it will be worth about 5 times that when he sells. Your stock will have tanked long before that.
13   clambo   ignore (4)   2019 May 24, 8:57am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

My capital gains are as of today unrealized, not realized.

I can see on my brokerage page what the exact $ figure is for the unrealized gains as a dollar figure; it's a huge number.

You are incorrect about my friend's silver; he bought some silver at $30, $40, $46 dollars; he may not live long enough to see any gain of any kind. Today it's under $15 bucks an oz.

You are also incorrect about my AAPL tanking; the day I decide I want my money I will start selling shares but AAPL won't tank because my initial investment has more than doubled. For me to have my investment "tank" AAPL would have to go down to $10/share or below.

Unlike silver coins, Apple also pays me a dividend every 3 months of over $1000; so I can never lose money unless AAPL goes to $8/share and Apple sends thugs to me to make me pay them back all those dividends.
14   NuttBoxer   ignore (2)   2019 May 24, 11:38am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

I was asking about inflation, not capital gains. With stocks, or any asset that derives all of it's value from fiat currency, there is always a loss due to inflation.

Unless your friend dies suddenly, he should realize that gain in the next few years. But a rise to $200/oz will of course mean the fiat economy has tanked. If you sell before the rush, and receive non-fiat denominated assets in return, you can certainly have a net gain. But most people don't see a bottom like that coming, and rarely react in time.

Remember, it's not just $10/share, because that doesn't account for inflation.
15   Onvacation   ignore (4)   2019 May 25, 11:03am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

NuttBoxer says
But a rise to $200/oz will of course mean the fiat economy has tanked.

Or the economy booms and demand for silver skyrockets.

Either way, silver is real money unlike fiat currency or bitcoin whose only value is belief.
16   0ba4   ignore (0)   2019 May 25, 11:56am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (1)   quote   flag        

Onvacation says
Either way, silver is real money unlike fiat currency or bitcoin whose only value is belief.


Silver is not money or financial asset.
17   Onvacation   ignore (4)   2019 May 25, 11:58am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

0ba4 says
Silver is not money or financial asset.

By fiat.
18   Onvacation   ignore (4)   2019 May 25, 12:12pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

For our less educated readers:
"Silver has the six aspects of money in a classical sense. It is divisible, durable, convenient, consistent, has utility value, and cannot be created by fiat. Silver is used as a medium of exchange and as a store of value."

So yes, silver and gold are money. In a classical sense, it can be argued that dollars are not money as they are based on nothing but the "full faith and credit" of our government. The government cannot default on its obligations as it has the power to print more money or increase taxes in order to repay its debt.

Seems like a ponzi scheme. Dollars will continue to work until they don't.
19   clambo   ignore (4)   2019 May 25, 12:26pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

My friend paid $30-$46 per oz for his silver.

If you count for inflation, he's doubly screwed and will not live to see a gain. He bought his silver using money which was more valuable than today; so for him to just get his money back silver has to be over $16-30-$46 depending on which silver. Maybe we should say his "average cost basis" is $30 but in dollars which were more valuable than today; so he needs silver to go up to an average of $30+ to just break even.

Worse, he has a gigantic "opportunity cost" which is lost dividends, capital gains, and interest.

By the time in some possible future that he breaks even with his silver I will have made a fortune in stocks with capital gains and dividends. I also own a high yield bond fund which makes interest and some funds that focus on dividend growth stocks.

He's going to keep working away and keep saving money in silver in his safe because he hates Uncle Sam knowing his net worth I guess.
20   Onvacation   ignore (4)   2019 May 25, 12:29pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

clambo says
Worse, he has a gigantic "opportunity cost" which is lost dividends, capital gains, and interest.

So true. If you buy precious metal waiting for a collapse of the system you might die waiting.
21   NuttBoxer   ignore (2)   2019 May 28, 10:24am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

0ba4 says
Silver is not money or financial asset.


It's the ONLY acceptable form of money according to the US Constitution, and thousands of years of economic history.
22   Quigley   ignore (0)   2019 May 28, 10:31am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Look, if you buy some silver now at this low, and have ten years to wait, you’ll probably make some money. It may go up in two depending on if Trump is elected again. If a Democrat unseats him, the market will nosedive and silver will rise.
If Trump is re-elected, the economy will keep on chugging and possibly keep improving, and silver may fall further.
This, I foresee.
Place your bets, people!
23   NuttBoxer   ignore (2)   2019 May 28, 10:31am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

clambo says
I will have made a fortune in stocks with capital gains and dividends. I also own a high yield bond fund which makes interest and some funds that focus on dividend growth stocks.


You know you're not diversified right? All your assets lose all their value when the dollar plunges. And in the case that it collapses, no one is going to sell you food for your worthless paper, but your friend will be able to barter for what he needs. Also, possession is 9/10ths of the law. Every tried cashing out your assets in a collapse? Liquidity is another problem you face.

clambo says
He bought his silver using money which was more valuable than today


Meaning he would need more of the same money to buy that silver again right? But he already owns the silver, and has therefore lost nothing. You see unlike dollars, you can't print more silver, so it doesn't lose value. Every investment you listed suffers from inflation, his does not.
24   NuttBoxer   ignore (2)   2019 May 28, 10:34am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Quigley says
If Trump is re-elected, the economy will keep on chugging and possibly keep improving, and silver may fall further.


Has Trump abolished the central bank? Did you eliminated the defense budget of perpetual war? Has he abolished the abomination of investment banks? If nothing about the economy has fundamentally changed(it has not), why does it matter who sits in the Oval Office?
25   Quigley   ignore (0)   2019 May 28, 10:34am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

NuttBoxer says
You see unlike dollars, you can't print more silver, so it doesn't lose value.


But you can MINE silver to get more of it, and it’s much less useful in industry than gold, so it’s not used up as fast. One could argue, using your own logic, that silver is more of a value risk for those two reasons. It’s being mined, and it’s not being removed from the market fast enough.
26   Onvacation   ignore (4)   2019 May 28, 11:02am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Quigley says
But you can MINE silver to get more of it, and it’s much less useful in industry than gold, so it’s not used up as fast.

Actually silver has more uses and a lot of silver is stored in minute quantities in landfills. It is estimated that 46 billion ounces of silver and 5 billion ounces of gold have been mined since the dawn of civilisation. Of this only one billion ounces of silver and 2 billion ounces of gold bullion are available for investment.
Silver gets "used up" in many manufacturing processes.
27   Quigley   ignore (0)   2019 May 28, 11:03am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

NuttBoxer says
If nothing about the economy has fundamentally changed(it has not), why does it matter who sits in the Oval Office?


Because people make the decisions to invest or not, to create wealth or not, and people do not always act rationally. Rather, they usually act to protect their assets if they see them as being at risk from an outside force.

That’s what we saw during the Obama years: investors were cautious about long term exposure to the economy. Large scale corporate investment was sharply curtailed, because they didn’t trust the regulatory environment. This had a chilling effect on the economy at large, and kept it from ever really taking off. It took years for investors to get brave enough to tip toe back into the market with large investments that would lock up their cash for years. In the mean time, they just did stocks or other short term investments they could more actively control.

Investors trust Trump. His message has been consistent, anti-socialist, and pro-business. He’s rolled back many regulations, and signed a tax bill making the business climate much friendlier. They trust that a government under Trump will be a safe environment for growth and investment.

On the other side of the aisle, we’ve got candidates who want to tax corporations at a ruinous rate, add a myriad of regulations on everything from New Green Deal nonsense to putting a new tranny bathroom in every shop. All we’ve heard from the Left is how Socialism is the only way forward, and how everyone needs to get a Universal Basic Income to do nothing but sit around and mold.
The New Left is very frightening to investors, which is why the most traditionalist candidate is the strong forerunner (Biden). He’s the next best thing to a Hillary Clinton they could find: corrupt, grasping, and willing to cut a deal for more power and money. They know how that works, as they did business like that for 8 years under Obama.
But that doesn’t mean they like it, and they’ll pull back off new investments if Biden wins the general. There’s just no way that a Democrat Congress and POTUS means good things for business.

So yah, that’s how I came to those conclusions.

about   best comments   contact   one year ago   suggestions