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The Secret is Out


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2012 Aug 30, 6:42am   45,503 views  90 comments

by BayArea   ➕follow (1)   💰tip   ignore  

You could not find a better investment between mid 2010 through the end of 2011 than low end real estate. Relatively low prices, record low interest rates, and the fact that the mainstream had not yet been fully let in on the secret. For the smart ones (or lucky ones for that matter) that got in during that time, congrats on the move.

Fast forward to 2012, inventory has reached inexplicably low volumes, prices have surged, and the secret about real estate investment is out.

Case and point... I sit at the family table at dinner, and the topic is real estate investment. I go to lunch with co-workers, and the topic is how to become a slum-lord. I go bowling with some friends, and everyone is talking about buying up low end real estate to rent out. I cannot believe what I am experiencing. It's like everyone with a stable job is all of a sudden a real estate investor. It's not just for the upper class anymore. My secretary bought a damn rental property this year in the Bay Area for gawd's sake!

It will be interesting to see what happens after the election and how real estate responds.

Don't get me wrong, with the rental market also surging, real estate is still a good investment today, but it was a great investment 12-24 months ago.

Waiting patiently...

#housing

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51   Dan8267   2012 Sep 1, 12:11am  

CrazyMan says

I'll be in my bunk pretending to be a Republican.

http://www.youtube.com/embed/xrFaTjcNzZM

52   thomaswong.1986   2012 Sep 1, 12:19am  

wbblair3 says

No, he's potentially bisexual.

or a sex addict

53   ELC   2012 Sep 1, 4:36am  

wbblair3 says

No, he's potentially bisexual.

Maybe he's Heteroflexible

54   Biff Baxter   2012 Sep 1, 7:23am  

wbblair3 says

Bisexual should not be categorized as either gay or straight as it is both.

It's pretty gay.

Biff

55   Biff Baxter   2012 Sep 1, 7:24am  

robertoaribas says

I'm just a simple guy

There's an understatement.

Biff

56   ELC   2012 Sep 1, 7:56am  

GameOver says

Hence, when the MORONS start jumping headlong into the RE market, the SMART money jumps OUT.

Would you say morons jumped in during the bubble because of people like Carlton Sheets? Would that be an indicator? There's some little weasel on TV now (forget his name) but in general I don't see too many Real Estate for Dummies programs out there right now.

57   Eman   2012 Sep 1, 9:10am  

Yup says

Refinance them all, pull out all that equity and buy 20 more.....

I F'ing dare you!

That would not be a wise move now. At least the 1st half of your suggestion is correct. Refinance them all and put that money under the pillows. The RE ship has left the dock. There is no reason to throw more money into the RE market now unless it's a screaming deal, and it can still produce a positive cashflow. Otherwise, there's nothing wrong with sitting on cash and collect 0.25% interest rate annually.

58   steve1   2012 Sep 1, 11:57pm  

Here in Phoenix, the mini boom is already over. It isn't stopping the flippers from buying and attempting to rent or sell. I live in a high demand neighborhood where the "for rent" signs are lingering along with the "for sale" signs. Yet "investors" continue to buy and refurbish, some spending lots of money. Let's face it, really savvy people with money don't put it in residential housing. It lacks one of the basic requirements of a good investment.....liquidity.

59   Zacksmom   2012 Sep 2, 4:58am  

Those arguing about Phoenix may want to do a little research on Chandler and Gilbert, AZ. These areas have had large increases in list and sale prices from Spring until now. Both cities have made CNN Money Magazines lists of Top 100 places to move @ #50 and #33. Google it!

These areas are low crime with low unemployment and excellent schools and colleges. I know several Californians relocating for those reasons. The area has long been desirable to Canadians and Midwesterners looking to escape cold Winters.

60   Zacksmom   2012 Sep 2, 5:13am  

I'm talking about traditional sales, not short sales, REO's that are receiving multiple offers and their prices are being bid up with multiple offers. Most traditional buyers don't want to risk buying a bank owned home with possible defects. Short sales take several months to close and with prices soaring why would a bank settle when they can sell it for more money in a few months?

61   B.A.C.A.H.   2012 Sep 2, 5:15am  

Zacksmom says

excellent schools and colleges

Excellent colleges? Really?

62   Zacksmom   2012 Sep 2, 5:02pm  

Gee thanks for the racist, tasteless cartoon. With colleges it's all about perspective. I'm in Orange County, CA and CSUF has cut many classes and is subpar education for the price. UC Irvine has also had a lot of cuts and prefers the tuition of out of state and foreign tuition to instate students.

I have several years before my oldest attends college, but I'm well aware of the college debt bubble and would rather my kids live at home and go to a nearby college or University vs. take on six figure debt and then spend a lifetime endentured to debt repayment.

Thanks Robert for affirming what I heard from my sister about CGCC.

Anyone trash talking AZ should spend some time living, working, and paying the high price of CA (especially OC and LA) then you realize that you have very little left over to save or plan for the future. The weather is great in CA but the pubic schools and pubic universities are a mess. The whole State is going bankrupt.

BTW, U of A has one of the top Geoscience programs in the country.

63   8675309 Jenny   2012 Sep 2, 11:19pm  

I've been tracking the Chandler zip codes, and it is true that listing prices are up, but at the same time, sales have fallen off a cliff here

64   8675309 Jenny   2012 Sep 2, 11:29pm  

Yeah, but listing prices are up!

Nobody is buying them, there are a glut of rentals, and dum-dum thinks he's a millionaire!

65   C Boy   2012 Sep 3, 1:59am  

8675309 Jenny says

I've been tracking the Chandler zip codes, and it is true that listing prices are up, but at the same time, sales have fallen off a cliff here

I think banks are still with holding properties from the market.

66   Bigsby   2012 Sep 3, 2:01am  

Darrell In Phoenix says

Zacksmom says

Anyone trash talking AZ should spend some time living, working, and paying the high price of CA (especially OC and LA) then you realize that you have very little left over to save or plan for the future.

Here my entire life. And it's a ghetto.

The fact remains that sales volume is cratering, prices are falling and entire neighborhoods are empty.

So you say, but then you've had rather a lot of personas over the months, so who's to say where you are really from.

67   Bigsby   2012 Sep 3, 2:09am  

Darrell In Phoenix says

And you've backstopped a rather large number of misrepresentations of the truth about housing over the years.

Is that directed at me? Care to give some examples?

68   anonymous   2012 Sep 3, 2:15am  

PockyClipsNow says

funny vid.

unshaven clown!! hahahaha

i can see this election coming down to abortion. its the only issue simple enough to get the dumb ass 'swing voters' to actually express an opinion.

but i thought it was the holier then thou independent voters that decide elections? you know, the one's that are so much smarter then the partisans repubes and demtards, that objectively look at both platforms and pick the worst of their ideas to turn into laws.

69   Bigsby   2012 Sep 3, 3:31am  

Darrell In Phoenix says

That's directed at you Pimp.

Now, now, Realtors are Liars, is there really any need for that?
You forgot the examples by the way.

70   37108605   2012 Sep 3, 4:29am  

BayArea says

It will be interesting to see what happens after the election and how real estate responds.

I'll give you the response after this election:

CLOSE YOUR EYES AND WHAT DO YOU SEE?

NOTHING.

BANG

71   37108605   2012 Sep 3, 4:30am  

8675309 Jenny says

Yeah, but listing prices are up!

Nobody is buying them, there are a glut of rentals, and dum-dum thinks he's a millionaire!

Of course, only a fool thinks their shite is worth Xamount more than it really is and there are plenty of FOOLS out there in real estate.

72   37108605   2012 Sep 3, 4:32am  

Darrell In Phoenix says

Zacksmom says

Anyone trash talking AZ should spend some time living, working, and paying the high price of CA (especially OC and LA) then you realize that you have very little left over to save or plan for the future.

Here my entire life. And it's a ghetto.

The fact remains that sales volume is cratering, prices are falling and entire neighborhoods are empty.

As they should be in LA and OC most of it is uglier than it was 30 years ago and still grossly overpriced and OVERRATED.

73   37108605   2012 Sep 3, 4:33am  

bgamall4 says

BayArea says

I go bowling with some friends, and everyone is talking about buying up low end real estate to rent out.

They want to securitize the rents. That will likely cause a massive housing bubble as the rich buy up everything in sight. Then it will crash, as high rents force more multigenerational housing, or tent cities.

The rents will start out lower than current rents. But then they will have to go higher as investors squeeze the renters.

Gary Anderson strategicdefaultbooks.com

You are completely and utterly out of touch with economic reality IMHO if you believe that to be truth.

74   37108605   2012 Sep 3, 4:34am  

Zacksmom says

I'm talking about traditional sales, not short sales, REO's that are receiving multiple offers and their prices are being bid up with multiple offers. Most traditional buyers don't want to risk buying a bank owned home with possible defects. Short sales take several months to close and with prices soaring why would a bank settle when they can sell it for more money in a few months?

One comment to this lunacy: LMFAO

75   ELC   2012 Sep 15, 4:11am  

repo4sale says

1000 to 10,000% returns in vacant land.

I bought and sold over 20,000 acres...

IRR/MATH GENIUS!

That guy doesn't look like a Republican to me! Heck, there's still water dripping off him.

76   Goran_K   2012 Sep 15, 4:13am  

Yes, the secret is out, even Robert Shiller commented on it. 48% of existing home sales went to investors in Phoenix so far in 2012.

As for people who actually are buying homes to live in?

I present exhibit A:


Speculation nation baby!

77   Goran_K   2012 Sep 15, 4:53am  

Roberto, you want to make real money being a RE investor/flipper?

Lets pitch a show on HGTV or Bravo, get some funny co-stars, and bring that troll attitude with you. I'll volunteer to help script and "dramaticize" the episode story lines. Then we'll both get private islands.

78   Eman   2012 Sep 15, 8:02am  

CrazyMan says

Dan8267 says

I'll be in my bunk pretending to be a Republican.

Now I know why conservatives have a better sex life than liberals. :)

79   Dan8267   2012 Sep 15, 9:36am  

E-man says

Now I know why conservatives have a better sex life than liberals. :)

Yeah, because Kate Beckinsale would really have sex with a republican. Not since

80   JodyChunder   2012 Sep 15, 9:47am  

Goran_K says

ZIRP has hurt the U.S economy far more than the entirety of the tax credit, and the cost continue to climb.

Excellent observation that gets surprisingly little mention. This is a MASSIVE ongoing subsidy to you-know-who.

81   ELC   2012 Sep 15, 10:30am  

bgamall4 says

People need to watch phoenix. If it continues in an obvious bubble, then it will spread. If Phoenix tanks, real estate will crash like the Titanic. Watch it.

I'm in Florida (which sucks) but I would think Phoenix is not a place anyone would like to move to. I would think whoever is there stays there because they have little choice. My impression of it was a hot dry waste land. Now Sedona was different world entirely. But that was 20 years ago.

82   rufita11   2012 Sep 15, 11:08am  

ELC says

I'm in Florida (which sucks) but I would think Phoenix is not a place anyone would like to move to. I would think whoever is there stays there because they have little choice. My impression of it was a hot dry waste land. Now Sedona was different world entirely. But that was 20 years ago.

The only place in AZ I could ever live is Flagstaff. Phoenix is just way too hot in the spring and summer and not very pretty to look at.

83   ELC   2012 Sep 15, 11:45am  

robertoaribas says

Phoenix has been one of the fastest growing cities in the US for the past 40 years... So if "you would think nobody wants to move there", maybe thinking isn't really your thing?

Starting shit with me now?

84   dunnross   2012 Sep 15, 2:04pm  

robertoaribas says

Phoenix has been one of the fastest growing cities in the US for the past 40 years...

That's because all the rednecks like roberto move out there. When you're driving a pick-up and have pea for brain, which eventually, after 2-3 years of living in Phoenix, starts to turn into pea puree, the hot phoenix wasteland starts to become very attractive to you. After all, where else can you ride your bike to work in 105 degree weather?

85   ELC   2012 Sep 15, 9:06pm  

dunnross says

the hot phoenix wasteland starts to become very attractive to you. After all, where else can you ride your bike to work in 105 degree weather?

My friend moved to Phoenix from Florida and hates the oppressive heat, can't find work, complains of scorpions, snakes all over, can't have a garden since nothing will grow. She had two cats die because she let them out of the house. Yet her daughter who moved with her loves it. They're renting a 5 bedroom Mc Mansion for $2500/mth and it's a total party house for them. All $2500 will get you in S. Florida is a 3/2 on a canal.

86   ELC   2012 Sep 15, 9:30pm  

bgamall4 says

He is pointing out fact. As people get older and snow becomes too cold, places like Phoenix and Las Vegas look better and better. Much easier living than in cold climes and not too many bugs, or snakes or alligators like in Florida.

It was the, "maybe thinking isn't really your thing?" part that I felt was uncalled for.

It's beyond me why people move to Florida, Phoenix or Vegas. How could anyone want to live in the desert or a swamp?

87   cw   2012 Sep 16, 3:28am  

This such a timely story since my "ghetto rental" is in escrow to be sold for $65k .
I bought it in late 2009 for $32k and rents for $950. However it is increasingly difficult to keep rented and is in great demand since the mainstreem seems to have found out how great this is- or was two years ago. It is just like 2004 again for me-that was when I sold my other rentals to "investors" who were not even homeowners themselves.

88   B.A.C.A.H.   2012 Sep 16, 3:35am  

I knew a decent mind-his-own-kinda-business guy who became one of those kinda "slumlords". It penciled out for him.

Except that, since the tenants knew some personal information about him, he was intimidated by them. You can have the legal system behind you all you want, its not the same thing as you and your family being safe from methheads and gangsters and their anonymous cronies.

A level-headed guy, had to sell it out from under them and was even nervous about that during the process.

89   B.A.C.A.H.   2012 Sep 16, 4:10am  

BayArea says

Case and point... I sit at the family table at dinner, and the topic is real estate investment.

What's not Cool and Hip right now? What will your oh-so-smart people laugh at you with derisive comments and derisive smirks about? That's probably the best investment/savings vehicle right now. I don't "know" what that is, but I "think" it may be cash.

90   ELC   2012 Sep 16, 4:31am  

B.A.C.A.H. says

I don't "know" what that is, but I "think" it may be cash.

The rate of return reflects the amount of risk. Cash yields nothing because it is the best investment out there. "Waiting patiently" is the best investment right now and the interest rates reflect that.

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