patrick.net

Go Ask Alice says

A "housing recovery" is dramatically lower prices by definition.

it is remarkable for the self professed most informed in the media (journalists) to even talk about recovery by meaning higher prices.

infact they havent even talked about what normal prices means how they have behaved over the past decades.

Morgan Stanley: Home prices will fall another 5% to 8%.

How about 10-20%?

Several years ago a British man said to not buy a house until they fell 90% from peak. I've looked for the article & can't find it. It may have been removed to stop a panic.

Optimistic = Extend & Pretend. LOL

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If robertoaribus says it then it must be true.

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It must be true if robertoaribus says it.

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Just because banks have decided to halt foreclosure or turn to short sales does not mean this is a healthy market.

Low inventory is bad for the housing market because demand cannot be satisfied.

This time of year is prime selling time. It's not going to get better in the fall regardless of inventory.

Housing recovery? Moody's just downgraded 15 major banks including those with enormous liabilities in mortgage based assets (Bank of America anyone?):
http://money.cnn.com/2012/06/21/investing/bank-downgrades/index.htm?hpt=hp_t1

Recovery? No, no, no, things are going to get even worse, and I was one of those who thought that we might be reaching the bottom this year. Kicking the can down the road just doesn't work.

thomas.wong1986 says

Go Ask Alice says

A "housing recovery" is dramatically lower prices by definition.

it is remarkable for the self professed most informed in the media (journalists) to even talk about recovery by meaning higher prices.

infact they havent even talked about what normal prices means how they have behaved over the past decades.

http://www.youtube.com/embed/PgndejUTkyk

recovery [rɪˈkʌvərɪ]
n pl -eries
1. the act or process of recovering, esp from sickness, a shock, or a setback; recuperation
2. restoration to a former or better condition

In the minds of both flippers or homeowners. Recovery means "return to 20% annual appreciation"
They will have NO RECOVERY.
Real property appreciation will return to normal rates of appreciation,
(3 to 7% per yr.) AFTER gubmint intervention fails. Gubmint will not decide what the market will bear. They just waste trillions fortifying their image.
"AN ICE CREAM CONE EVERY DAY" Such a cute little fool.

Maybe I am one of those sexually repressed business people. No fucking while your on the payroll.

Maybe people like the idea of freedom so much. Because they have to work for their boss who is like a Dictator. Its as close to a Dictator as you can get. You wouldn't want to live under a Dictator now would you? Kind of like Jesus is your personal savior however he's your personal Dictator.

http://www.youtube.com/embed/tCJux_7W2i8

curious2 says

However, while a 90% decline is conceivable, it is not very likely. It would require something like this:

Rather depends on factors... how much hype you have as we heard during the boom. Places like Palo Alto even double down on over the top "Tech stock IPOs" Bubbles like Facebook... Im sure some people expected FB stock to be trading around $150/share on its way to $500.

All tied to over the top optimistic hype (news) and frankly idiotic overpaying by buyers.

Post 1989 peak saw 30-40% correction, so far we had 50% correction, and still not yet there... 90% correction, maybe not.. 70-80% is more likely.

roberto's perspective is where he is located the situation is not so bad, for several reasons.
So, Phoenix is actually not a housing disaster at this moment.
I was in Phoenix once, sitting in the airport on my way somewhere in late June. I looked out the window and saw the shimmer of the desert heat. The temp outside was 120F.
Now, if you can handle that and the isolation of living in the middle of nowhere, go for it. If you can handle the other gangster shit, mexican illegals, etc. crime then go right down there. You can pay cash for a place, they're $100K.
No thanks, I'm going to walk to the beach in a little bit. It's 70F and clear here today.

clambo says

No thanks, I'm going to walk to the beach in a little bit. It's 70F and clear here today.

yet, time and time again, we have seen native Californians, and our business, leave for Nevada, Arizona and Texas.... have to ask why ?
its amazing how many natives have moved out.. but moved out they did.

Because Nevada, Arizona, and Texas are much cheaper deserts than California.

thomas is right. Many are leaving.
They are going where the taxes and houses are a better deal.
Also they are going to places where they can buy a house. The houses in Phoenix cost 20% what they cost in Sunnyvale, etc.
I just couldn't handle Phoenix no matter what but maybe it's a fun place, I don't know. I know no one who has been there to report back to me.

clambo says

thomas is right. Many are leaving.

They are going where the taxes and houses are a better deal.

Also they are going to places where they can buy a house. The houses in Phoenix cost 20% what they cost in Sunnyvale, etc.

I just couldn't handle Phoenix no matter what but maybe it's a fun place, I don't know. I know no one who has been there to report back to me.

I've been here a few times, mostly in the summer and ay, caramba no- It's not my kind of place. That heat is something else if you're not used to it

Kudos for those hearty souls that can put up with the scorpions and heat though.

robertoaribas
What percentage of home buying in AZ are accounted for investors?

Call it Crazy says

Hey, don't be knocking on the scorpions, they had a couple of good songs.....

Here I am...rock you like a hurricane...

People - robertoaribas has got to be a paid NAR shill. One of at least a few on here.

I don't think Robert is a shill. He's talking about the local Phoenix market he's living in. That area, along with Las Vegas, parts of Florida and Atlanta crashed hard during the post-bubble, so prices may make sense.

Phoenix isn't doing so badly if you lived there and had a job. House prices are low but not falling recently.
Since a house in Phoenix costs just 20% of a house in Santa Cruz or Monterey, it's probably feasible to buy and rent them out.
Why someone would want to do that is beyond my understanding, but everyone needs to do something I guess.

Yeah, agreed. Phoenix and prime areas of the country are not comparable, at all.

robertoaribas says

It is about the numbers. Low Supply versus Demand means prices are going up, if your area shows those statistics. Period.

Well, it's a bit more complex that than isn't it. Affordability, loan availability and consumer confidence (jobs) are the other main constraints.

Also, foreclosures are actually up this year (but down YOY) in the bay area. It will be interesting to see if the market can sustain the inventory that is waiting to be placed on the market, as soon as prices rise enough for people to be able to sell without bringing a check to the table. I don't think here in the BA it's as hunky dory as many people seem to think.

If enough people see rising prices and increase the inventory to where the market can't absorb them, that will in turn drive prices down again, which would be both ironic and amusing. I seriously doubt this last little mini bubble is sustainable, but we will see.

robertoaribas says

I'm sorry. You two can't help it that you are completely uneducated about economics, asset class markets etc, and are posting completely based on 8th grade educations... Keep it up!

Dude, what the heck? And you wonder why people are voting your post down and out of the forum? It's post like this.

I never have said that houses are going down another 150%, because I don't believe it, and I have no way to predict it.
However, borrowing 10X your income to buy a house means you are making a huge mistake financially at least.
I think houses on average (exceptions exist) will slowly creep downward less and less as a %, until some "bottom" is hit. How long will this take? Years probably, especially if Obummer is re-elected.
So, anyone even considering buying a house someday has plenty of time to wait and gather his money and his wits.
Rather than put down $120K on a place to satisfy my former girlfriend, I bought more shares of mutual funds and AAPL. Soon I will get more agressive and buy a LEAPS option.
I'm already WAY up compared to the bummer I would be experiencing if I bought a few years ago to take advantage of that bullshit "buyer's credit" nonsense.
Cash is king. There will be also plenty of broke people in the future who want renters or "boyfriends" with benefits. I see lots of them here and there ;)

Cash is king only when it has perceived value. A couple big banks downgraded to just above junk. Fed just keeps making more of that fiat money. The stock market is still up for now but I would bet it will tumble bad again like 2008. Beware.

Have you seen Zeitgeist on Netflix?

robertoaribas says

Your notion that "falling prices = recovery" shows your complete and utter ignorance

thats how a healthy BA economy works... our employers are unwilling to bankroll high home prices. everything is different here!

New renter says

I've been here a few times, mostly in the summer and ay, caramba no- It's not my kind of place. That heat is something else if you're not used to it

Kudos for those hearty souls that can put up with the scorpions and heat though

I think of all the people who grew up here... and how many have left... its odd, but they each had their reasons... went off to Nevada, Washington, Arizona, Texas, etc etc...