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Goodbye California? Phoenix?


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2013 Apr 1, 3:01am   9,552 views  37 comments

by nw888   ➕follow (0)   💰tip   ignore  

Many areas in SoCal haven't dropped in price by much more than 10%. After waiting and watching the FED lower rates again and again, most of these homes are now being picked up for their 2005-2006 prices. Inventory in nice areas is extremely low, and with low interest rates, people are able to afford more.

So I've waited 7 years to be exactly back to 2006.

I don't see rates going up anytime soon, and it seems the FED has done exactly what it said it would do...prop up the bubble in housing to make it the new normal.

As a first time home buyer, it is frustrating to have waited this long and yet prices won't come down to a realistic price vs. real wages.

Maybe it's time to move to Scottsdale, where prices have been depressed and there are still some great deals to be had.

I think it's pointless to fight the government on its policies anymore, and get on with living life.

Food for thought.

#housing

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14   FortWayne   2013 Apr 1, 7:00am  

Don't know where exactly you are in CA, but LA County is affordable outside few very expensive places like Beverly Hills and some beach towns.

Moving across state lines is not easy. It's a pretty significant lifestyle change. And grass really is not greener on the other side like everyone thinks.

15   nw888   2013 Apr 1, 7:05am  

I'm looking mostly in Pasadena and Arcadia, which are quite expensive. We also want half an acre, so the lot size makes the price go up significantly.

Maybe it's best to find a different neighborhood. Although state taxes here are something like 11% for us. Arizona is 4.5% I believe. That alone is a good chunk of money saved per year.

16   Mobi   2013 Apr 1, 7:17am  

nw888 says

I'm looking mostly in Pasadena and Arcadia, which are quite expensive. We
also want half an acre, so the lot size makes the price go up significantly.

Half acre in Paradena, Acradia? Good luck.

17   kt1652   2013 Apr 1, 7:23am  

nw888 says

Maybe it's time to move to Scottsdale, where prices have been depressed and there are still some great deals to be had.

Check out El Dorado Hills, half way between Lake Tahoe and SFBA. You can ski at Kirkwood Saturday and dine in SF Sunday.
Here's a random SOLD on Zillow I grabbed. Beautiful home, great school. It's gone up some but nothing like the Bay Area.
Not far is Granite Bay and Folsom, both nice area.

18   edvard2   2013 Apr 1, 7:55am  

Its probably not a bad idea to access the weather situation in AZ too. Something about triple-digit heat for months on end doesn't sound totally appealing to me at least...

19   Goran_K   2013 Apr 1, 8:06am  

Roberto handles the heat by wearing a tank top that shows off his guns. If you can't manage that, then maybe Phoenix isn't for you.

20   nw888   2013 Apr 1, 8:08am  

As I remember it, yes the summers can be pretty rough when outside. You do get used to it though, and those hot days mean more months spent in a warmer pool. Love the monsoons in the summer too. Beautiful sunsets. Clean roads and freeways.

21   nw888   2013 Apr 1, 8:29am  

Yes, I'd rather be hot for two months rather then freeze in 5 feet of snow. Once you're used to the heat 75 degrees is freezing as I recall!

22   FortWayne   2013 Apr 1, 8:30am  

nw888 says

I'm looking mostly in Pasadena and Arcadia, which are quite expensive. We also want half an acre, so the lot size makes the price go up significantly.

Maybe it's best to find a different neighborhood. Although state taxes here are something like 11% for us. Arizona is 4.5% I believe. That alone is a good chunk of money saved per year.

Pasadena is very expensive for some reason, I don't know about Arcadia. We live in San Fernando Valley, and it is very nice here and prices are half of what those other areas are.

You just have to find the right neighborhood.

23   bob2356   2013 Apr 1, 8:32am  

nw888 says

Where in Los Angeles are you? We've been mostly looking at the pasadena/arcadia areas, which are just insane. We also want half and acre, which is even more insane. Maybe even just moving another 30 minutes outside of LA would be best.

Why AZ? Vegas is a lot closer LA and dirt cheap.

24   PockyClipsNow   2013 Apr 1, 8:34am  

Yeah the valley is a great bargain in LA county. Check out burbank, porter ranch, maybe as far as thousand oaks if you want to be in ventura county.

25   lostand confused   2013 Apr 1, 8:46am  

Thousand Oaks I would buy in a heartbeat-I love that area and still somewhat reasonable. But the 30-40 miles one way commute to the job centers is a killer. Though there seem to be a lot of jobs in Woodland Hills nowadays-that is much, much closer. Now if I can find a working from home job!!!!

26   edvard2   2013 Apr 1, 8:51am  

robertoaribas says

the summers suck. I don't care about 105 degree days, but when it goes over 110, then i can only go for bike rides up to about 10 miles... and some nights it barely gets down to 100 at midnite, so even my dog gets exhausted on short walks.

I grew up in the rural South with 95 degree heat and 99% humidity. So I know what hot weather is about. But I remember a few years ago spending 3-4 days in Sacramento which gets as hot as a furnace for a few months in the summer. 2 days it got to over 107 degrees. When its that hot you really can't do much outside. It was just as bad as it was when I lived on the east coast when it was -10 outside: equally disabling. As far as the Bay Area, the weather is so crazy different from one place to another. SF is cold as hell for most of the year while the east bay across the bridge is warm and mild in comparison.

27   Philistine   2013 Apr 1, 9:43am  

maxf says

the rates are now 3.5-4% range instead of the 6-7% range.

Yeah, but don't forget, there were a LOT of I/O and ARM loans at that time--which was a big part in fueling the bubble in the first place. Those I/O and ARM payments were a lot cheaper than a typical mortgage payment would have been. Not so much I/O or ARM action going on these days, at least not when there are 25+ offers on every house in LA and the seller is just going to take the high DP/cash offer.

So I don't take it for granted that everybody's payment when rates were 6% was necessarilly higher than now just because of raw interest rates dropping; mortgage type makes a huge difference in this analysis.

And either way, a house payment right now in LA is still pretty extreme compared to typical earnings here, unless you want to move to the outlying areas (which is no guarantee--as Pasadena proves).

28   ducsingle5313   2013 Apr 1, 3:26pm  

donjumpsuit says

I was actually doing this one the other day and was pleasantly surprised (comparison of San Diego to San Jose home prices below).

I think the Bay Area has a serious problem, and it's only going to get worse.

I've lived in both areas. An average house in San Diego County is much nicer than an average house in the SFBA, but the population isn't as diverse or well educated. San Diego makes better financial sense though because most jobs will pay the same between the two locales.

It will be interesting to see how things sort themselves out in the Bay Area. . . .

29   Y   2013 Apr 1, 3:55pm  

Listen to y'all....cryin like boiled pumpkins....
whaaaaaaaa it's too hot....eeeeeyyyyyy!
bone up or get outta dodge...

edvard2 says

I grew up in the rural South with 95 degree heat and 99% humidity. So I know what hot weather is about. But I remember a few years ago spending 3-4 days in Sacramento which gets as hot as a furnace for a few months in the summer. 2 days it got to over 107 degrees. When its that hot you really can't do much outside.

30   zzyzzx   2013 Apr 4, 4:36am  

KarlRoveIsScum says

did I mention the GRID LOCK!

It's pretty much like that everywhere during rush hour these days.

31   yup1   2013 Apr 4, 4:52am  

kt1652 says

Check out El Dorado Hills, half way between Lake Tahoe and SFBA. You can ski
at Kirkwood Saturday and dine in SF Sunday.
Here's a random SOLD on Zillow I
grabbed. Beautiful home, great school. It's gone up some but nothing like the
Bay Area.
Not far is Granite Bay and Folsom, both nice area.

El Dorado Hills is great.

Of course you have to consider that Sacramento is still in a depression. In Folsom most of the strip malls have at least 25% vacancy. The main mall that was completed years ago in Folsom still has over 50% vacancy and the anchor store is Whole Foods, in a mall, lol.

Compared to LA the weather is colder and wetter in the winter, and hotter in the summer, though it warms up later in the afternoon and generally cools down in the evening. You will be 90 minutes from Tahoe, 5 minutes from Folsom Lake, and 2 hours from San Francisco.

32   yup1   2013 Apr 4, 4:59am  

nw888 says

Yes, I'd rather be hot for two months rather then freeze in 5 feet of snow.
Once you're used to the heat 75 degrees is freezing as I recall!

If you can stand it being 85 all night. Has to make for one tremendous AC bill.

33   nw888   2013 Apr 4, 5:01am  

Yes AC bills are pretty high in the summer months in AZ.

34   The Original Bankster   2013 Apr 4, 5:49am  

nw888 says

Yes AC bills are pretty high in the summer months in AZ.

get swamp cooler, you can get it down to $20 for a SFH.

35   Bellingham Bill   2013 Apr 4, 6:20am  

two words, solar roof

two more, battery backup

36   edvard2   2013 Apr 4, 8:36am  

SoftShell says

Listen to y'all....cryin like boiled pumpkins....

whaaaaaaaa it's too hot....eeeeeyyyyyy!

bone up or get outta dodge...

Thanks. I did. Now I live in an area that's 60-70 most of the year.

37   kt1652   2013 Apr 4, 4:08pm  

yup1 says

Of course you have to consider that Sacramento is still in a depression.

Lol. Depression! You are in a mental state of depression.
Depression is 1930’s America or more recently, maybe Japan’s 15 years of falling RE and stock market valuation. It is very sad, the punishment the Japanese people had to endure. It was also unnecessary.
Folsom, El Dorado Hills and Granite Bay are where successful, higher educated households call home.
Let’s compare:
Median house prices/ yoy increase (from zillow)
SF $762K/16.3%
EDH $440K/16.2%
Folsom $380K/18.8%
Median household income (from US Census Bureau)
SF $73K
EDH $115K
Folsom $95K
CA ave$ 61.6K
Simple affordability index: Med HH income/Med house price
SF 0.01
EDH 0.26
Folsom 0.25
Get the message yet? Nice house, affordable, good living.

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