patrick.net

https://t.me/Absolute1776/12592?source=patrick.net

Yep, it's so losing the war that after 2.5 month of fighting the mighty RuZZian army has only one major city under its belt. And it's not Mariupol which is still contested.

You realize that we're talking about the 2nd army in the world commiting 75% of their fighting force agains 22nd and still not gaining much after losing half of its tanks, two major battleships (and several smaller ones), 200+ aircraft and more Ivans than in 10 years in Afghanistan? And being kicked out from the suburbs of Kyiv, ftom Chernigiv, Sumy and being kicked away from Kharkiv beyond artillere range as we speak.

If this shit is success I shudder to see how failure looks like.

Yeah, something isn't quite right.

At this point, it needs saying. We're 2 months into this thing. I didn't follow the past few weeks due to Elon and Abortion, don't think much has changed.

I don't know what went wrong - shit logistics? Armor performing much worse than expected v. ATGMs - but something went badly for Russia.

Just with conscripts charging in without any kind of tactics, the sheer weight and quantity of the initial wave or two should have seen Russia at the Dneipr within weeks at most before logistics became a thing.

I can accept they didn't storm into Kiev fast due to fears of massive casualties and destruction looking like ass in terms of optics, or as a feint to draw forces away from Crimea or the Donbas, but I don't believe mere Mariupol was the only point of the whole thing. THAT the Russians could have done with only some feints out of Crimea and towards Kharkov as a distraction. Again, a hey-diddle diddle up the middle with mech inf. should have brought them to encircle or mostly encircle Mariupol by Day 3 at the most.

Now they could have very limited objectives which is to close Ukrainian access to the Sea of Azov and give DPR some breathing room, but it just doesn't pass the smell test with me.

That being said I'm sure most Ukrainian armored vehicles and aircraft are obliterated, and were in the first week other than whatever the Ukrainians managed to hide in the Woods in the Far Western third. In the case of the Su-27s I'd slap a $20 they came from an Eastern European country outside the Ukraine but took a flight path to make it look like they came from somewhere else. And bombing Snake Island with a handful of eyeballs and no heavy weapons or serious SAMS of any kind (other than maybe a Strela or two) on it was a waste of time, pure optics.

Either our retarded woke trans military worked with the African level of Corruption in Europe to deal some serious damage, US/NATO Spec Forces or ex-SF Mercenaries are running wild, or Russia has massive problems (in which case, it's not much of a threat other than nukes since it can't project jack shit power, it can only draw a line, and therefore more evidence Europe can do 100% of the time, money, and risk).

isn't the twitter war far more important than the reality that the country is going to be all fucked up when it is over?

If Russia's goal was Ukraine East of the Dneipr, they failed up to this point. If it was to send a message by knocking AFU out of the Donbas region either by encirclement or pushing them to the Dneipr, that failed. (the only thing left at this point would be mopping up pockets of resistance or bands of dead enders) The only possible idea is a slow march to turn Ukraine into an Inland Nation or at least control the Sea of Azov.

I don't believe the Russians launched this whole thing over Azov Battalion alone.

I also don't believe that the average Ukrainian is all pissed off and fanatical, either. I suspect there's MP units blocking Ukrainian retreats/desertions also. The lack of movement may be due to shitty Russian Conscripts AND a meh attitude of most of the line, recruit/conscript Ukrainian units, too.

As for quantities of generals killed, that's the Russian way of war that depends heavily on the senior officers, whereas US Generals sit in a trailer and eat ice cream or fly over out of MG range in a helicopter over a firefight to collect medals (Vietnam) or fly into the Green Zone in leather seated C-5s to collect combat pay and tax benefits for the month by spending a weekend to give a 15 minute speech or powerpoint presentation (Iraq) while the Senior NCOs and Cannon-Fodder low ranking officers go into harms way.

Interesting:

The Marine veteran signed up to work for a private military contracting company on top of his full-time job as a corrections officer shortly before the war in Ukraine broke out at the end of February, Willy Cancel's mother, Rebecca Cabrera, told CNN. After the war began, the company asked for contractors to fight in Ukraine and Cancel agreed to go, the mother said. Cabrera did not respond to Fox News' request for comment.
...
"Prior to wanting to help the effort in Ukraine, he was a detention officer in Kentucky," the widow told Fox News. "He had dreams and aspirations of being a police officer or joining FDNY. Naturally when he found out about what was happening in Ukraine he was eager to volunteer."

https://www.foxnews.com/world/former-marine-dies-fighting-alongside-ukrainians-widow-calls-him-a-hero?source=patrick.net

On top of his full time job? You mean, joining the PMC paid a shitload more than being a rookie corrections officer in Kentucky. You can't be a PMC overseas moonlighting while continuing your F/T corrections job.

So if there are PMCs there it explains why the Russians are delayed with their conscripts despite their material superiority. It certainly isn't Ukrainian Conscripts. Ukraine couldn't even bother to arm Western volunteers, with high morale, and as much or more training than recent conscripts from Ukraine itself. Usually international volunteers have very high morale and many have some military training they bring to the table.

Three British volunteers known to have been killed or captured, some were there since 2018.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-61260402?source=patrick.net

The Russians wanted control over Donbas and to open the waterway to Crimea. The Russians are getting that and I suspect the Ukraine military was fighting to just make it harder for them to achieve this and that it would cost the Russians a lot of casualties and military hardware.

Likely the Ukraine military knew it would be a matter of time such as 30 days of fighting until they would have to retreat.

I suspect most of the fighting outside of Mariupol is hit and run raids, mostly by Western PMCs on Russian Forces.

ad says

The Russians wanted control over Donbas and to open the waterway to Crimea.

Not only the above contradicts their stated goals at the start of the war, they are still aiming at the full occupation:

In an interview for La Repubblica, the Deputy Speaker of the Russian Parliament, Pyotr Tolstoy, stated that Russia won’t stop its “special military operation” in Ukraine until the Russian Army reaches the Polish border.

https://mobile.twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1523025055273619456?source=patrick.net

AmericanKulak says

I suspect most of the fighting outside of Mariupol is hit and run raids, mostly by Western PMCs on Russian Forces.

Control is control. Or lack of thereof. So whatever it is Mariupol is still contested.

Bd6r says

https://mobile.twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1523027490230444035?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&source=patrick.net

On the "Snake Island is pure optics because no air defense":

Moskva was the island's air defense. Until it wasn't. Then they brought in a SA-13 which was destroyed by a drone. Then the replacement for it was destroyed before it could be unloaded (along with the landing craft carrying it).

The island appears to be important to Ivan for some reason, otherwise they wouldn't cling to that rock so hard. It could replace anti-air capabilities lost with Moskva, but for that they would need to domehow bring an S-300 complex there, which is not happening.

Yeah, about all of that Ukraine winning palaver:
"The beginning of the end for Kyiv in Donbass: The northern line of defense broke - Popasnaya fortress fell! The Ukrainians also lose Severodonetsk!"
https://www.rumormillnews.com/cgi-bin/forum.cgi?read=199017&source=patrick.net
Eaton doesn't seem like a particularly pro Russian journalist.

Ukrainians lose 1,000 men every 24 hours- "It rained" Iskander-K in Odessa- Leveled mercenary base
https://www.rumormillnews.com/cgi-bin/forum.cgi?read=199014&source=patrick.net

RWSGFY says

If this shit is success I shudder to see how failure looks like.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Tannenberg?source=patrick.net
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_Battle_of_the_Masurian_Lakes?source=patrick.net
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_Battle_of_the_Masurian_Lakes?source=patrick.net
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Warsaw_(1920)