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106
ignoreme
2020 Jul 11, 7:41am
mich says
Risks are not low selling puts. When the 1000 $40 puts you sold on American Airlines gets called, and American Airlines is trading at $20 because of something that could not have been predicted like corona, you’ll need to come up with $20K immediately, which probably means selling in a down market.
Selling of puts is one reason why people sell into a down market. It’s not that they want to, everyone knows the market will come back, they are forced to because of the dumb puts.
And for what benefit? An extra 1% return? Not worth the risk imo
Options is not that difficult and the risks are low. For example this works in your favor you can sell a put on a company you're eying and you know the intrinsic value/what you want to pay and just collect a premium and who knows maybe you'll get put the shares you wanted to buy in the first place.
Risks are not low selling puts. When the 1000 $40 puts you sold on American Airlines gets called, and American Airlines is trading at $20 because of something that could not have been predicted like corona, you’ll need to come up with $20K immediately, which probably means selling in a down market.
Selling of puts is one reason why people sell into a down market. It’s not that they want to, everyone knows the market will come back, they are forced to because of the dumb puts.
And for what benefit? An extra 1% return? Not worth the risk imo
107
Cash
2020 Jul 11, 7:51am
This is my current approach, I am personally not touching crypto here and now and dont really suggest it for anyone else unless you think the stock market is going to chase new highs. There is considerable relative correlation taking place between crypto/indexes. https://invst.ly/ret-c Darker blue SP500 the lighter BTC.
For now I think it would be a good time to set some portion of a persons portfolio to invest in some crypto similar positions as xau xag. As a US citizen I use Coinbase Pro and am flat atm with funds sitting in wait. I have a BCVault wallet stay away from paper wallets ;) Keep in mind when BTC crashes most all the others follow so I would highly consider ETH and XRP as base crypto to hold since they have the larger vol/caps. Fundamentally there has been a move for several main stream gurus talking about owning Cyypto so as things roll forward and the real stock market shows it's true face, correlation indicates a good size pullback which "mean" level 6500+/- seems reasonable to me. Technically speaking BTC faces a triple top with very little pull back power after 2+moths of consolidation to pop it through so I see some sort of repeat of March on the way with the possible creation of some sort of an inverted H&S. https://invst.ly/reuif Although I am hopeful for 6500 I will be testing buys near fib levels. I dont actually use fibs much but thought it would illustrate my current view of crypto best.
1 other consideration to my analysis is the USD DX 96.300+/- is phenomenally strong and I am anticipating DX to test higher not lower while crypto and the indexes take a needed break and test considerably lower 20-30% lower. I am looking to be buying USD/MXN if things go accordingly as a bad ass inverse to equities.
For now I think it would be a good time to set some portion of a persons portfolio to invest in some crypto similar positions as xau xag. As a US citizen I use Coinbase Pro and am flat atm with funds sitting in wait. I have a BCVault wallet stay away from paper wallets ;) Keep in mind when BTC crashes most all the others follow so I would highly consider ETH and XRP as base crypto to hold since they have the larger vol/caps. Fundamentally there has been a move for several main stream gurus talking about owning Cyypto so as things roll forward and the real stock market shows it's true face, correlation indicates a good size pullback which "mean" level 6500+/- seems reasonable to me. Technically speaking BTC faces a triple top with very little pull back power after 2+moths of consolidation to pop it through so I see some sort of repeat of March on the way with the possible creation of some sort of an inverted H&S. https://invst.ly/reuif Although I am hopeful for 6500 I will be testing buys near fib levels. I dont actually use fibs much but thought it would illustrate my current view of crypto best.
1 other consideration to my analysis is the USD DX 96.300+/- is phenomenally strong and I am anticipating DX to test higher not lower while crypto and the indexes take a needed break and test considerably lower 20-30% lower. I am looking to be buying USD/MXN if things go accordingly as a bad ass inverse to equities.
108
ignoreme
2020 Jul 11, 7:53am
If you think Tesla is overvalued right now, buy puts, don’t sell them.
Selling puts your upside is fixed but your downside is huge. Buying puts, you only lose the cost of the put, so your downside is fixed, but your upside is huge.
If Tesla has a huge drop, cash in your puts and buy Tesla if you still want it. If it doesn’t, then you only lose what you paid for the puts.
It’s far less risky, but I think psychologically people don’t like to do it, which is probably another reason to do it.
Selling puts your upside is fixed but your downside is huge. Buying puts, you only lose the cost of the put, so your downside is fixed, but your upside is huge.
If Tesla has a huge drop, cash in your puts and buy Tesla if you still want it. If it doesn’t, then you only lose what you paid for the puts.
It’s far less risky, but I think psychologically people don’t like to do it, which is probably another reason to do it.
109
ignoreme
2020 Jul 11, 7:56am
Full disclosure, I don’t do any of that crap. Just buy index funds and hold them. You are guaranteed to get the average return of the market and the average return of the is better then what 80% of investors make.
110
ignoreme
2020 Jul 11, 8:05am
WookieMan says
Absolutely. It’s funny when you think about it. These are all Federally guaranteed loans, so nobody actually lost any money on the deal. The feds paid the bank and just printed some more cash.
As “punishment” for making the government print cash, they put you in credit jail for a few years.
Rinse, repeat, print more money. Meanwhile I can’t get 1% in a savings account.
My concern is that there's a segment of society that has had a foreclosure or short sale from 2008 and feel it's not that big of a deal to let it go after doing it then.
Absolutely. It’s funny when you think about it. These are all Federally guaranteed loans, so nobody actually lost any money on the deal. The feds paid the bank and just printed some more cash.
As “punishment” for making the government print cash, they put you in credit jail for a few years.
Rinse, repeat, print more money. Meanwhile I can’t get 1% in a savings account.
111
CBOEtrader
2020 Jul 11, 8:30am
CBOEtrader
2020 Jul 11, 8:30am
WookieMan says
I spoke with a client who runs a pool business. She says she gets more inbound free inquiries per weekend totaling more leads than she used to receive all month.
Yeah i wonder how many of those not paying their mortgage cant vs simply arent because the moratorium allows them to keep the cash for 2 more months.
4 months ago none of the phenomenons existed, which are in turn creating these bizarre stats. I expect a stock crash in October, but its definitely largely speculative. We really dont know what any of this means.
Are car sales up?
I spoke with a client who runs a pool business. She says she gets more inbound free inquiries per weekend totaling more leads than she used to receive all month.
Yeah i wonder how many of those not paying their mortgage cant vs simply arent because the moratorium allows them to keep the cash for 2 more months.
4 months ago none of the phenomenons existed, which are in turn creating these bizarre stats. I expect a stock crash in October, but its definitely largely speculative. We really dont know what any of this means.
113
Shaman
2020 Jul 11, 9:16am
Shaman
2020 Jul 11, 9:16am
I acknowledge the strong performance of tech stocks during this crisis. Tech companies like Amazon have absolutely cleaned up as they displace Brick and mortar stores in unheard of frequency.
The crash is still coming though. It might hold off until September, but it might also start earlier. Like I said, I gave you all early warning.
The crash is still coming though. It might hold off until September, but it might also start earlier. Like I said, I gave you all early warning.
114
CBOEtrader
2020 Jul 11, 9:20am
CBOEtrader
2020 Jul 11, 9:20am
ignoreme says
You should pay an A$$visor 1.5% per annum to give you advise that good. Factor in another .25% to ES management...
This is how many seniors only net 3% per year and go broke into crashes
Full disclosure, I don’t do any of that crap. Just buy index funds and hold them. You are guaranteed to get the average return of the market and the average return of the is better then what 80% of investors make.
You should pay an A$$visor 1.5% per annum to give you advise that good. Factor in another .25% to ES management...
This is how many seniors only net 3% per year and go broke into crashes
115
mell
2020 Jul 11, 9:21am
Shaman says
I agree on tech stocks, but not on a total market crash. Tech and parts of the Nasdaq are due for a correction. You can move to defensive sectors, literally defense, agriculture, fertilizer, biotech etc. TSLA is especially interesting, it can run some more, but the competition has been heating up fiercely, it will be interesting to compare car sales once Covid clears. Also note that AMZN doesn't make money from delivery, only from cloud and other services. If cloud revenue goes down, AMZN will post a loss and Bezos even hinted at that. However nothing is certain except for the current tech bubble ;)
I acknowledge the strong performance of tech stocks during this crisis. Tech companies like Amazon have absolutely cleaned up as they displace Brick and mortar stores in unheard of frequency.
The crash is still coming though. It might hold off until September, but it might also start earlier. Like I said, I gave you all early warning.
I agree on tech stocks, but not on a total market crash. Tech and parts of the Nasdaq are due for a correction. You can move to defensive sectors, literally defense, agriculture, fertilizer, biotech etc. TSLA is especially interesting, it can run some more, but the competition has been heating up fiercely, it will be interesting to compare car sales once Covid clears. Also note that AMZN doesn't make money from delivery, only from cloud and other services. If cloud revenue goes down, AMZN will post a loss and Bezos even hinted at that. However nothing is certain except for the current tech bubble ;)
116
clambo
2020 Jul 11, 9:25am
I’m not worried about the stock market now, but I will in a few years when I am a geezer.
By then I can arrange my investments to income more than capital appreciation.
A while ago before the virus, I bought some Roku, Alibaba, and John Deere. All are doing fine.
Recently I was annoyed about taxes and what they are doing with our money.
Maybe I shouldn’t worry.
1. I pay taxes to US Treasury
2. Free money goes out “stimulus checks”
3. People buy more shit at the Apple store
4. Apple pays me a dividend
5. The cycle is complete
By then I can arrange my investments to income more than capital appreciation.
A while ago before the virus, I bought some Roku, Alibaba, and John Deere. All are doing fine.
Recently I was annoyed about taxes and what they are doing with our money.
Maybe I shouldn’t worry.
1. I pay taxes to US Treasury
2. Free money goes out “stimulus checks”
3. People buy more shit at the Apple store
4. Apple pays me a dividend
5. The cycle is complete
117
WookieMan
2020 Jul 11, 12:19pm
WookieMan
2020 Jul 11, 12:19pm
CBOEtrader says
I'm just wondering WTF people are spending their money on. Until recently, there was little to nothing to buy/do besides a car, groceries or Amazon from March until mid June. Our bank account has grown substantially since this BS started. That's without any stimulus or a job loss bonus... lol. Outside of high COL areas, there's really no reason anyone should be missing payments on most things. Especially housing. 1+1 is equaling 3 right now.
I think there's gaming of the system by individuals, but I still don't understand why. Are we becoming that big of a douche bag?
ignoreme says
www.digit.co
FDIC insured and 1% interest. At least that's my current rate. Monthly fee of $2.99 I believe, but if you're putting $20k plus in there the fee is negligible and probably still getting 0.95% interest roughly.
It's also how we budget for vacations or big expenses while getting a tiny amount of interest. You can set a dollar amount goal and date. It just automatically withdraws from any checking or other savings account towards that savings goal and tries to reach it by the date you set. Has made our trips less stressful because 97% of everything has been paid and accounted for. No guilt.
I have referral links that would pay me, but I'm not a cunt. So go check it out on your own if interested. I so despise referral marketing to make a buck on others. Feels shady.
4 months ago none of the phenomenons existed, which are in turn creating these bizarre stats. I expect a stock crash in October, but its definitely largely speculative. We really dont know what any of this means.
I'm just wondering WTF people are spending their money on. Until recently, there was little to nothing to buy/do besides a car, groceries or Amazon from March until mid June. Our bank account has grown substantially since this BS started. That's without any stimulus or a job loss bonus... lol. Outside of high COL areas, there's really no reason anyone should be missing payments on most things. Especially housing. 1+1 is equaling 3 right now.
I think there's gaming of the system by individuals, but I still don't understand why. Are we becoming that big of a douche bag?
ignoreme says
Rinse, repeat, print more money. Meanwhile I can’t get 1% in a savings account.
www.digit.co
FDIC insured and 1% interest. At least that's my current rate. Monthly fee of $2.99 I believe, but if you're putting $20k plus in there the fee is negligible and probably still getting 0.95% interest roughly.
It's also how we budget for vacations or big expenses while getting a tiny amount of interest. You can set a dollar amount goal and date. It just automatically withdraws from any checking or other savings account towards that savings goal and tries to reach it by the date you set. Has made our trips less stressful because 97% of everything has been paid and accounted for. No guilt.
I have referral links that would pay me, but I'm not a cunt. So go check it out on your own if interested. I so despise referral marketing to make a buck on others. Feels shady.
118
mell
2020 Jul 11, 12:45pm
WookieMan says
If you lost your job due to Covid-19 you can't pay rent or mortgage - sure there will be plenty of gaming and pretending as well but that's the reality for many. Also many will simply stop paying rent and claiming Covid-19 damages in case they will lose their job later. Doesn't surprise me.
I'm just wondering WTF people are spending their money on. Until recently, there was little to nothing to buy/do besides a car, groceries or Amazon from March until mid June. Our bank account has grown substantially since this BS started. That's without any stimulus or a job loss bonus... lol. Outside of high COL areas, there's really no reason anyone should be missing payments on most things. Especially housing. 1+1 is equaling 3 right now.
I think there's gaming of the system by individuals, but I still don't understand why. Are we becoming that big of a douche bag?
If you lost your job due to Covid-19 you can't pay rent or mortgage - sure there will be plenty of gaming and pretending as well but that's the reality for many. Also many will simply stop paying rent and claiming Covid-19 damages in case they will lose their job later. Doesn't surprise me.
119
Hircus
2020 Jul 11, 1:29pm
Hircus
2020 Jul 11, 1:29pm
Patrick says
Not to mention you're buying a company that just fell in value. Why did it fall in value? Was it a small fall, due to reasons you don't think are very negative / serious, or was it a larger fall, due to seriously bad news?
Well, you bought it anyway, before you had a chance to decide whether or not you still want to own it.
That's the point of a put - people buy them so the risk falls to the put writer, not the buyer.
I'm not saying it cant work out in your favor, I'm just expressing doubt of it as an effective general strategy.
mich saysOptions is not that difficult and the risks are low. For example this works in your favor you can sell a put on a company you're eying and you know the intrinsic value/what you want to pay and just collect a premium and who knows maybe you'll get put the shares you wanted to buy in the first place.
But then you have to keep the cash on hand for the life of the option and be ready to buy if they exercise the put. Not a big risk, but an inconvenience.
Not to mention you're buying a company that just fell in value. Why did it fall in value? Was it a small fall, due to reasons you don't think are very negative / serious, or was it a larger fall, due to seriously bad news?
Well, you bought it anyway, before you had a chance to decide whether or not you still want to own it.
That's the point of a put - people buy them so the risk falls to the put writer, not the buyer.
I'm not saying it cant work out in your favor, I'm just expressing doubt of it as an effective general strategy.
120
Hircus
2020 Jul 11, 1:38pm
Hircus
2020 Jul 11, 1:38pm
EBGuy says
Ya it's been amazing to watch. I want to short too, but the forces behind this momentum are strong, and I might wait until it goes a little higher before shorting, if I do at all.
I heard TSLA is about to get listed on the s&p, which should boost their stock price as many index funds and etfs suddenly add to the demand. I think if they make profit next earnings, they will qualify for the s&p, so this change is soon.
I feel like there's tens of thousands of silicon valley foot soldiers who take $1000 - 5000 of each coding paycheck and plow it into TSLA, causing this craziness that keeps squeezing the shorts.
Tesla's market cap is now more than Toyota, GM, Ford and Chrysler/Fiat combined. Tempted to short 100 shares outright just for the thrill of it. Tesla's stock price at the beginning of the year was $1000 dollars lower....
Ya it's been amazing to watch. I want to short too, but the forces behind this momentum are strong, and I might wait until it goes a little higher before shorting, if I do at all.
I heard TSLA is about to get listed on the s&p, which should boost their stock price as many index funds and etfs suddenly add to the demand. I think if they make profit next earnings, they will qualify for the s&p, so this change is soon.
I feel like there's tens of thousands of silicon valley foot soldiers who take $1000 - 5000 of each coding paycheck and plow it into TSLA, causing this craziness that keeps squeezing the shorts.
121
Dholliday126
2020 Jul 11, 2:09pm
Dholliday126
2020 Jul 11, 2:09pm
Newbie123 says
OMG I just wrote this super long response and then hit the back button and erased it. So I'll try to sum.
I leave it up to my stock guy. He believes one must be 90% vested in a basket of 40 stocks. Inflation is a 8% so you gotta shoot for 15% returns. The only way to get that is tech and tech ipo. Big Motley Fool fan, pays for a lot of their research. He had me in fangs, shopify, zoom, stichfix, peleton, datadog.. basically crazy unicorns I would never do on my own. His biggest position is apple. My personal portfolio of ExxonMobil, att, and dividend stock have gone no where. I am too risk adverse to personally handle my own portfolio with those kind of tech stocks, but he does. Literally up 30ish percent, but like I said, paper gains, so whose knows in the long run.
Dholliday126 saysI'm up 125K in the past 3 months in stocks. Plus 500K in my house over the past 6 years. Let me tell you boys, doom may sell, but it doesn't appreciate.
Asterisks, it all paper gains. Double jinks.
Niiice! Congrats!! Maybe you have mentioned it already....which stocks did you mainly buy?
Tech stocks?
OMG I just wrote this super long response and then hit the back button and erased it. So I'll try to sum.
I leave it up to my stock guy. He believes one must be 90% vested in a basket of 40 stocks. Inflation is a 8% so you gotta shoot for 15% returns. The only way to get that is tech and tech ipo. Big Motley Fool fan, pays for a lot of their research. He had me in fangs, shopify, zoom, stichfix, peleton, datadog.. basically crazy unicorns I would never do on my own. His biggest position is apple. My personal portfolio of ExxonMobil, att, and dividend stock have gone no where. I am too risk adverse to personally handle my own portfolio with those kind of tech stocks, but he does. Literally up 30ish percent, but like I said, paper gains, so whose knows in the long run.
122
CBOEtrader
2020 Jul 11, 3:03pm
CBOEtrader
2020 Jul 11, 3:03pm
mell says
In NV residents have until Sep 1 to repay any unpaid rent. I suppose that means mid Sep landlords can file evictions.
Wtf happens when 1/8th the city is in eviction court?
WookieMan saysI'm just wondering WTF people are spending their money on. Until recently, there was little to nothing to buy/do besides a car, groceries or Amazon from March until mid June. Our bank account has grown substantially since this BS started. That's without any stimulus or a job loss bonus... lol. Outside of high COL areas, there's really no reason anyone should be missing payments on most things. Especially housing. 1+1 is equaling 3 right now.
I think there's gaming of the system by individuals, but I still don't understand why. Are we becoming that big of a douche bag?
If you lost your job due to Covid-19 you can't pay rent or mortgage - sure there will be plenty of gaming and pretending as well but that's the reality for many. Also many will simply stop paying rent and claiming Covid-19 damages in case they will lose their job later. Doesn't surprise me.
In NV residents have until Sep 1 to repay any unpaid rent. I suppose that means mid Sep landlords can file evictions.
Wtf happens when 1/8th the city is in eviction court?
123
mell
2020 Jul 11, 3:26pm
Dholliday126 says
I'd take some gains here as tech / faang is definitely overvalued. PTON needs to show they can become profitable, so far they have a bike and a treadmill - ok they tack on the subscriptions onto that which are the real money makers, but they are far away from profitability. I don't know how long nflx can show the same revenue growth with all the competition entering. AAPL has always been solid and is probably the safest, but I'd wait for the Q2 earnings before investing more or sell some before Q2 earnings if you have a lot. All these tech trannies are priced for major earnings gains and can easily disappoint. This is not a generally bearish market outlook, but tech has gotten ahead of itself just a little.
Newbie123 saysDholliday126 saysI'm up 125K in the past 3 months in stocks. Plus 500K in my house over the past 6 years. Let me tell you boys, doom may sell, but it doesn't appreciate.
Asterisks, it all paper gains. Double jinks.
Niiice! Congrats!! Maybe you have mentioned it already....which stocks did you mainly buy?
Tech stocks?
OMG I just wrote this super long response and then hit the back button and erased it. So I'll try to sum.
I leave it up to my stock guy. He believes one must be 90% vested in a basket of 40 stocks. Inflation is a 8% so you gotta shoot for 15% returns. The only way to get that is tech and tech ipo. Big Motley Fool fan, pays for a lot of their research. He had me in fangs, shopify, zoom, stichfix, peleton, datadog.. basically crazy unicorns I would never do o...
I'd take some gains here as tech / faang is definitely overvalued. PTON needs to show they can become profitable, so far they have a bike and a treadmill - ok they tack on the subscriptions onto that which are the real money makers, but they are far away from profitability. I don't know how long nflx can show the same revenue growth with all the competition entering. AAPL has always been solid and is probably the safest, but I'd wait for the Q2 earnings before investing more or sell some before Q2 earnings if you have a lot. All these tech trannies are priced for major earnings gains and can easily disappoint. This is not a generally bearish market outlook, but tech has gotten ahead of itself just a little.
124
porkchopXpress
2020 Jul 11, 4:01pm
porkchopXpress
2020 Jul 11, 4:01pm
The Left REALLY needs a White cop to kill a Black man. Time is a-wastin'
125
ignoreme
2020 Jul 11, 7:26pm
mell says
Excellent analysis and a great example why you should just buy index funds because nobody actually knows wtf pelleton, Netflix, or Apple are going to do next.
I know with 100% certainty when I buy an index fund that I will get the average market return. That’s a minor miracle that I think everyone should stop and appreciate. With 0 research, thought, or planning I can by mathematical definition beat 50% of investors. Except that us monkeys are such flawed mental patients that actually index funds will beat the performance of 80% of investors.
Think about it like this. If you buy a share of Apple you do so because you think that the future dividends and appreciation make it a good investment. But you are buying from someone else who is selling it because they think it is a bad investment at that price.
I’m not so prideful to think that I’m the more informed investor in even 50% of those transactions, and anyone that can consistently “win” at stock picking will soon be so deluged with investor dollars that their portfolios will look like index funds that you pay 1%+ of aum for the privilege of owning.
Congrats on buying tech stocks though. That works until it doesn’t.
I'd take some gains here as tech / faang is definitely overvalued. PTON needs to show they can become profitable, so far they have a bike and a treadmill - ok they tack on the subscriptions onto that which are the real money makers, but they are far away from profitability. I don't know how long nflx can show the same revenue growth with all the competition entering. AAPL has always been solid and is probably the safest, but I'd wait for the Q2 earnings before investing more or sell some before Q2 earnings if you have a lot. All these tech trannies are priced for major earnings gains and can easily disappoint. This is not a generally bearish market outlook, but tech has gotten ahead of itself just a little.
Excellent analysis and a great example why you should just buy index funds because nobody actually knows wtf pelleton, Netflix, or Apple are going to do next.
I know with 100% certainty when I buy an index fund that I will get the average market return. That’s a minor miracle that I think everyone should stop and appreciate. With 0 research, thought, or planning I can by mathematical definition beat 50% of investors. Except that us monkeys are such flawed mental patients that actually index funds will beat the performance of 80% of investors.
Think about it like this. If you buy a share of Apple you do so because you think that the future dividends and appreciation make it a good investment. But you are buying from someone else who is selling it because they think it is a bad investment at that price.
I’m not so prideful to think that I’m the more informed investor in even 50% of those transactions, and anyone that can consistently “win” at stock picking will soon be so deluged with investor dollars that their portfolios will look like index funds that you pay 1%+ of aum for the privilege of owning.
Congrats on buying tech stocks though. That works until it doesn’t.
126
RWSGFY
2020 Jul 11, 8:20pm
RWSGFY
2020 Jul 11, 8:20pm
ignoreme says
Or they need cash. Or they are rebalancing their portfolio/MF/ETF.
But you are buying from someone else who is selling it because they think it is a bad investment at that price.
Or they need cash. Or they are rebalancing their portfolio/MF/ETF.
127
just_passing_through
2020 Jul 11, 8:26pm
just_passing_through
2020 Jul 11, 8:26pm
ignoreme says
There is a lot of talk among the financial channels that index fund investors may be in for a big surprise in the long run. That being said, after a nice crash I'd probably do the same at this point with a portion.
If you understand an industry very well (because maybe you work in it) and have a fairly clear view of who the disruptors will be then picking individual stocks kicks the shit out of indexes. Riskier though. Not a good idea for older folks unless they are already wealthy.
If I had gone with indexes I wouldn't be so close to being a multi-millionaire right now.
That being said, when Trump got elected and started with the off the cuff comments about what he was going to do to pharma (which would affect biotech too) I sold out and missed the entire Trump run up. So I'm no stock genius.
I’m not so prideful to think that I’m the more informed investor in even 50% of those transactions, and anyone that can consistently “win” at stock picking
There is a lot of talk among the financial channels that index fund investors may be in for a big surprise in the long run. That being said, after a nice crash I'd probably do the same at this point with a portion.
If you understand an industry very well (because maybe you work in it) and have a fairly clear view of who the disruptors will be then picking individual stocks kicks the shit out of indexes. Riskier though. Not a good idea for older folks unless they are already wealthy.
If I had gone with indexes I wouldn't be so close to being a multi-millionaire right now.
That being said, when Trump got elected and started with the off the cuff comments about what he was going to do to pharma (which would affect biotech too) I sold out and missed the entire Trump run up. So I'm no stock genius.
128
Blue
2020 Jul 12, 12:37am
Crash can happen. I guess that part of info is already factored in. Being in index funds can help to recover in few years if it really crash or else can get moderate growth.
129
clambo
2020 Jul 12, 12:55pm
Doing some math I found I get $105/week in dividends from my Apple stocks.
My real money is in mutual funds and I didn’t calculate that although Vanguard statements show it anyway.
How the hell am I supposed to be worried about stocks?
I like the T. Rowe Price website, it shows the amount of dividends and capital gains in the mutual funds.
The dividend component of the funds is significant, even for growth funds.
Never get out of stocks, until you need the dough or you are a geezer who wants only income.
My real money is in mutual funds and I didn’t calculate that although Vanguard statements show it anyway.
How the hell am I supposed to be worried about stocks?
I like the T. Rowe Price website, it shows the amount of dividends and capital gains in the mutual funds.
The dividend component of the funds is significant, even for growth funds.
Never get out of stocks, until you need the dough or you are a geezer who wants only income.
130
mell
2020 Jul 12, 12:58pm
Wow you must have a lot of aapl stock for that much dividend. Good for you.
131
Dholliday126
2020 Jul 12, 1:26pm
Dholliday126
2020 Jul 12, 1:26pm
clambo says
That's the key, doomers get paralyzed and do nothing, always waiting for the crash. Successfull stock guys understand, never play with money you can't stand to not touch for 7 years, never buy one stock/buy a basket of 40, crashes happen but over the long run you'll be ok, and if you do nothing inflation eats what you do have at a much higher rate then you think. And stocks are the most liquid asset, so even if you do freak out its one phone and basically free to get out. RE will cost you a minimum 5% to sell.
The most successful guys I know never are out of the markets, although the do trade around it. Theres a trade for anything, virus is a basket of tech stay at home stocks, war buy defense sector, zombie apocalypse buy gun stocks. Doomers just wait for the crash in cash and get eroded. I saying this because because I was that guy for 10 years and it probably cost me a lot. Hell, if you are really that doom and gloom, just get into stocks and rock a put option for the SP to go down by a half, would cost nothing but prob keep your mind at ease.
Never get out of stocks, until you need the dough or you are a geezer who wants only income.
That's the key, doomers get paralyzed and do nothing, always waiting for the crash. Successfull stock guys understand, never play with money you can't stand to not touch for 7 years, never buy one stock/buy a basket of 40, crashes happen but over the long run you'll be ok, and if you do nothing inflation eats what you do have at a much higher rate then you think. And stocks are the most liquid asset, so even if you do freak out its one phone and basically free to get out. RE will cost you a minimum 5% to sell.
The most successful guys I know never are out of the markets, although the do trade around it. Theres a trade for anything, virus is a basket of tech stay at home stocks, war buy defense sector, zombie apocalypse buy gun stocks. Doomers just wait for the crash in cash and get eroded. I saying this because because I was that guy for 10 years and it probably cost me a lot. Hell, if you are really that doom and gloom, just get into stocks and rock a put option for the SP to go down by a half, would cost nothing but prob keep your mind at ease.
132
Dholliday126
2020 Jul 12, 3:04pm
Dholliday126
2020 Jul 12, 3:04pm
Agreed. And the true money makers always buy more when the market tanks, so they want a crash, they see it as opportunity.
133
just_passing_through
2020 Jul 12, 3:06pm
just_passing_through
2020 Jul 12, 3:06pm
mell says
That's what I was thinking! Also that it's 420/month. That's a great number!
Wow you must have a lot of aapl stock for that much dividend. Good for you.
That's what I was thinking! Also that it's 420/month. That's a great number!
134
clambo
2020 Jul 12, 3:23pm
Just and Mell, thank you for your comments.
I am fortunate that they split my shares, then began with the dividends.
This is why stocks are so good; they can pay in different ways.
My friend bought about $20,000 in silver coins and later some gold, while I kept yelling at him that neither can either split nor pay dividends. He also has a small business and kept buying inventory with his profits “buy Apple, buy Primecap!” Of course, he’s a mile underwater with some silver he bought at $45+/oz.
Around 2000 or before I bought some stocks for fun and later sold them because “this is a pain in the ass to keep track of.” Was that a huuuge mistake which I won’t repeat.
I am fortunate that they split my shares, then began with the dividends.
This is why stocks are so good; they can pay in different ways.
My friend bought about $20,000 in silver coins and later some gold, while I kept yelling at him that neither can either split nor pay dividends. He also has a small business and kept buying inventory with his profits “buy Apple, buy Primecap!” Of course, he’s a mile underwater with some silver he bought at $45+/oz.
Around 2000 or before I bought some stocks for fun and later sold them because “this is a pain in the ass to keep track of.” Was that a huuuge mistake which I won’t repeat.
135
just_passing_through
2020 Jul 12, 3:30pm
just_passing_through
2020 Jul 12, 3:30pm
I definitely plan to go hard in the stock markets again eventually. I made a lot and at some point decided it was best to diversify to protect myself from myself. So Real Estate and some other things.
Even being out of the market my after-tax net worth has been going up 75K each year for the past 3 years. So I'm not succumbing to inflation but I'm not making a lot of progress with that either.
I'm pretty sure if I'm patient I'll have a better entry point for stoncks, gold, bitcorn, a new used car, a very used house over the next 6 months to 2 years. Would suck to lose my house down payment. I've only been waiting to move from apartments to a SFH for 25 years. I'd hate to start over lol...
Even being out of the market my after-tax net worth has been going up 75K each year for the past 3 years. So I'm not succumbing to inflation but I'm not making a lot of progress with that either.
I'm pretty sure if I'm patient I'll have a better entry point for stoncks, gold, bitcorn, a new used car, a very used house over the next 6 months to 2 years. Would suck to lose my house down payment. I've only been waiting to move from apartments to a SFH for 25 years. I'd hate to start over lol...
136
Shaman
2020 Jul 12, 5:14pm
Shaman
2020 Jul 12, 5:14pm
Stocks are going to be a really good investment again in a few months! If your cash is ready for the opportunity.
137
RWSGFY
2020 Jul 12, 5:17pm
RWSGFY
2020 Jul 12, 5:17pm
just_adhom_preaching says
A texbook reason for not being in the stocks. Don't see how this is contrarian.
Would suck to lose my house down payment. I've only been waiting to move from apartments to a SFH for 25 years.
A texbook reason for not being in the stocks. Don't see how this is contrarian.
138
ignoreme
2020 Jul 12, 5:33pm
just_adhom_preaching says
Most of the people spouting the “I understand the industry so I know what stocks to pick” line are code monkeys who understand nothing about investing.
Congrats, you bought Amazon. For the last 5 years the correct answer has been Amazon.
This plus the fact that all coders think they are the smartest person in the room at all times has made some really insufferable idiots who think they understand how to invest because they bought Amazon. Or worse, they think their stock guy is gods gift because they guessed Amazon and happily pay him 1%+ because they are special.
It’s a failure of our school system. You are not special. You are not above average. If you go to a poker game and don’t know who the mark is it’s you. Your investment advisor isn’t the next Buffet. People at Buffets level have better stuff to do then mess with your 100k portfolio.
You can pick stocks. When you do this you are guaranteed to get either above or below market returns. Why does everyone think they are going to get above market? All the research shows 80% of you won’t. Why would you take an 80% chance to lose money when the average market returns is sufficient for anyone?
If you understand an industry very well (because maybe you work in it) and have a fairly clear view of who the disruptors will be then picking individual stocks kicks the shit out of indexes. Riskier though. Not a good idea for older folks unless they are already wealthy.
Most of the people spouting the “I understand the industry so I know what stocks to pick” line are code monkeys who understand nothing about investing.
Congrats, you bought Amazon. For the last 5 years the correct answer has been Amazon.
This plus the fact that all coders think they are the smartest person in the room at all times has made some really insufferable idiots who think they understand how to invest because they bought Amazon. Or worse, they think their stock guy is gods gift because they guessed Amazon and happily pay him 1%+ because they are special.
It’s a failure of our school system. You are not special. You are not above average. If you go to a poker game and don’t know who the mark is it’s you. Your investment advisor isn’t the next Buffet. People at Buffets level have better stuff to do then mess with your 100k portfolio.
You can pick stocks. When you do this you are guaranteed to get either above or below market returns. Why does everyone think they are going to get above market? All the research shows 80% of you won’t. Why would you take an 80% chance to lose money when the average market returns is sufficient for anyone?
139
just_passing_through
2020 Jul 12, 6:00pm
just_passing_through
2020 Jul 12, 6:00pm
ignoreme says
That's quite the long post for a moron who thinks he's got me (probably the world) all figured out.
Main one was ILMN and I worked there in the early days. I even bought my own stock on the open market I was so convinced it was going to be a huge game changer. It was! I made a couple of million off of that pre-tax.
I did well with several other biotech companies. For decades I've always recommended to my friends NOT to invest in biotech/pharma because they don't understand it. I on the other hand, do very well.
I wish I'd bought some Amazon.
Most of the people spouting the “I understand the industry so I know what stocks to pick” line are code monkeys who understand nothing about investing.
That's quite the long post for a moron who thinks he's got me (probably the world) all figured out.
Main one was ILMN and I worked there in the early days. I even bought my own stock on the open market I was so convinced it was going to be a huge game changer. It was! I made a couple of million off of that pre-tax.
I did well with several other biotech companies. For decades I've always recommended to my friends NOT to invest in biotech/pharma because they don't understand it. I on the other hand, do very well.
I wish I'd bought some Amazon.
140
Patrick
2020 Jul 12, 6:01pm
Patrick
2020 Jul 12, 6:01pm
porkchopexpress says
The problem is that black cops kill black men at a higher rate than white cops do.
The Left REALLY needs a White cop to kill a Black man. Time is a-wastin'
The problem is that black cops kill black men at a higher rate than white cops do.
141
clambo
2020 Jul 12, 6:51pm
Since some read my comments, herewith my tale of “never sell stocks.”
In the early 90’s I was making some dough and I began to obsess about retirement investing. I never had a trader mentality.
The dot com boom was going on, a friend said to me “this is gonna be huge.”
So I drove my truck down Baja and I saw them laying the fiber optic cable along the side of the road. I thought “Corning makes this, I bet they’re laying it everywhere.”
Back home, I bought stocks and mutual funds on a whim, like a hoarder. Mostly I owned funds, but I wanted more thrills.
I bought some Sun Microsystems, Corning, Apple, Compaq. Since my funds had a $3000 minimum (some $2500) I bought in $3000 amounts.
Later, my Sun stock was falling, but I was down in Baja and I didn’t want to deal with it.
Later I thought “Why bother?” I sold it all.
My Apple shares would be worth about $400,000 today if I had kept my shares; they have split twice (14:1) since I owned them the first time.
I have a big case of sellers remorse.
In the early 90’s I was making some dough and I began to obsess about retirement investing. I never had a trader mentality.
The dot com boom was going on, a friend said to me “this is gonna be huge.”
So I drove my truck down Baja and I saw them laying the fiber optic cable along the side of the road. I thought “Corning makes this, I bet they’re laying it everywhere.”
Back home, I bought stocks and mutual funds on a whim, like a hoarder. Mostly I owned funds, but I wanted more thrills.
I bought some Sun Microsystems, Corning, Apple, Compaq. Since my funds had a $3000 minimum (some $2500) I bought in $3000 amounts.
Later, my Sun stock was falling, but I was down in Baja and I didn’t want to deal with it.
Later I thought “Why bother?” I sold it all.
My Apple shares would be worth about $400,000 today if I had kept my shares; they have split twice (14:1) since I owned them the first time.
I have a big case of sellers remorse.
142
RWSGFY
2020 Jul 12, 6:52pm
RWSGFY
2020 Jul 12, 6:52pm
Patrick says
That does nothing to move the markets.
porkchopexpress saysThe Left REALLY needs a White cop to kill a Black man. Time is a-wastin'
The problem is that black cops kill black men at a higher rate than white cops do.
That does nothing to move the markets.
143
just_passing_through
2020 Jul 12, 7:13pm
just_passing_through
2020 Jul 12, 7:13pm
I'll buy some sort of funds when I'm older. I'm only halfway to early retirement. I'm definitely too old for risky shit but there was a time that was the correct choice.
Lots of the big name wealthy people say diversification is for suckers. I hear a lot on business news say don't try to time the market. I agree with the former if you are young.
I got into the dot-com late. I was quite poor too. I made a great percentage in that last year of run up and got out early except for two companies that I kept that went under. Overall I made out.
I invested heavily (percentage wise because I was still basically poor) in the run up to the housing market crash. I got out early and kept my money. I don't recall if I beat the market. There really weren't a lot of indexes back then to compare to. I wasn't poor anymore.
I invested heavily in the next run up and again, by picking stocks. I got out early. Very early. Way too early. But I got out up over 1000%. Indexes that had now become popular wouldn't have done that for me. Rolled a lot of that over into Real Estate investments, a 500K house down payment and the retirement accounts are all set and waiting to take advantage of some sort of reset.
Other reasons I'm not in and am just going to wait for a pullback:
1. Algorithms: It used to be you could do things like, "buy on the rumor, sell on the news" and use other heuristics but not so much anymore.
2. This is no longer a market. I guess that ended in the 80s but really came into being the past decade.
The market we're in right now to me just seems like a fucking house of mirrors casino where the odds are stacked up against you more than a regular casino would be yet the owners WANT you to win so they keep printing more poker chips.
I just psychologically have an issue with investing in something like that. Or to continue investing a the 'Fed put' anyway. I have 250K I could use that is in retirement funds that wouldn't affect my house down payment but it's just going to sit there for a bit. I understand there is a shit ton of money sitting in American retirement accounts like that waiting to invest on a reset. Would have been nice if the Fed didn't get in the way.
I do still do a bit of swing trading along the lines of the method this guy uses:
www.youtube.com/embed/FBfwik6YpPo&t=628s
Just using 25K and I'm in-n-out. I make one or a few hundred here and there. I sleep well.
Lots of the big name wealthy people say diversification is for suckers. I hear a lot on business news say don't try to time the market. I agree with the former if you are young.
I got into the dot-com late. I was quite poor too. I made a great percentage in that last year of run up and got out early except for two companies that I kept that went under. Overall I made out.
I invested heavily (percentage wise because I was still basically poor) in the run up to the housing market crash. I got out early and kept my money. I don't recall if I beat the market. There really weren't a lot of indexes back then to compare to. I wasn't poor anymore.
I invested heavily in the next run up and again, by picking stocks. I got out early. Very early. Way too early. But I got out up over 1000%. Indexes that had now become popular wouldn't have done that for me. Rolled a lot of that over into Real Estate investments, a 500K house down payment and the retirement accounts are all set and waiting to take advantage of some sort of reset.
Other reasons I'm not in and am just going to wait for a pullback:
1. Algorithms: It used to be you could do things like, "buy on the rumor, sell on the news" and use other heuristics but not so much anymore.
2. This is no longer a market. I guess that ended in the 80s but really came into being the past decade.
The market we're in right now to me just seems like a fucking house of mirrors casino where the odds are stacked up against you more than a regular casino would be yet the owners WANT you to win so they keep printing more poker chips.
I just psychologically have an issue with investing in something like that. Or to continue investing a the 'Fed put' anyway. I have 250K I could use that is in retirement funds that wouldn't affect my house down payment but it's just going to sit there for a bit. I understand there is a shit ton of money sitting in American retirement accounts like that waiting to invest on a reset. Would have been nice if the Fed didn't get in the way.
I do still do a bit of swing trading along the lines of the method this guy uses:
www.youtube.com/embed/FBfwik6YpPo&t=628s
Just using 25K and I'm in-n-out. I make one or a few hundred here and there. I sleep well.
144
just_passing_through
2020 Jul 12, 7:34pm
just_passing_through
2020 Jul 12, 7:34pm
I forgot to mention... What I'm hoping for is some sort of major pull back for the retirement account. Then I figure I'd try out Rin's suggestion and select some dividend aristocrats then evaluate them each year, pruning / buying. There is a fund I like too come to think of it: ARKK
I mentioned that over Valentines day weekend not expecting him to buy it buy my Dad has made out great!
I haven't bought a tech stock since the 90s.
I mentioned that over Valentines day weekend not expecting him to buy it buy my Dad has made out great!
I haven't bought a tech stock since the 90s.
145
ignoreme
2020 Jul 13, 8:44am
Wow, call me a moron, refute none of my points, admit you don’t even know if you beat the market, then admit you haven’t bought a tech stock since the 90s... whatever dude.
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Those of you who know me a bit from my history know that I don’t pull this trigger lightly. I didn’t fall for all the bear schemes in the last five years. I’ve been a bullish investor for the past 10 years.
The last time I did this (everything to bonds) was in December of 2007.