patrick.net

Tim Aurora says

You guys still do not get the "exponential" aspect . Here is a trivia challenge for you.

Here is a quiz- A single lily pad in the pond spawns a new lily every day and each spawned lily also gets to spawn a new lily everyday. It takes the 100 days to fill the whole pond. So how many days does it take to fill approximately 3-4% of the pond.

Jesus dude, everyone has been exposed!! I've been exposed to it for weeks at this point as cases are popping up in my area and I'm completely rural. Old people stay home and don't visit old people. Not complicated. Most doctors would agree as much. I don't care about a fucking pond...

Tim Aurora says

During the speech he also seemed to downplay the severity of the outbreak, comparing it to the common flu.

Evidence that it's not? Link?

If this kills more than the common flu I'd be a bit surprised. Not saying it can't happen. This ain't killing 1M people though or whatever you're suggesting. And if it does, the SS fund just got more balanced. Gotta take the positives out of life. Don't let the media make you live in a negative echo chamber of death and despair which is where we're at.

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WookieMan says

If this kills more than the common flu I'd be a bit surprised

Nobody can see that far in to the future. But a couple things we do know:

1) the rate that it's growing - people generally seem to have a hard time comprehending exponential growth of this kind.

2) that even if this virus doesn't kill you its not super kind to everyone under 50, and it can permanently damage organs, especially lungs leaving people pretty fucked up for life.

One of the things this exposes is the degree to which we seem intellectually broken. The so called information age has only made people better at believing what they want, because they can always find plenty of people that are with them no matter how stupid the point of view. Hence the flat earthers, Trump, 97 genders, etc.

Bernie Sanders walks into a bar and yells: “Free drinks for everyone!”
The bartender asks: “Who’s buying?”
Bernie says: “Well it’s obviously the guy who has the most money!”
The crowd cheers: “That’s you Bernie! We are all unemployed because of the coronavirus!”

Tim Aurora says

You guys still do not get the "exponential" aspect . Here is a trivia challenge for you.

Here is a quiz- A single lily pad in the pond spawns a new lily every day and each spawned lily also gets to spawn a new lily everyday. It takes the 100 days to fill the whole pond. So how many days does it take to fill approximately 3-4% of the pond.

95 days @ 3.125% fill

:
If someone gives you one penny today, 2 pennies tomorrow, 4 pennies the following day and so on, how much money have you received have after 31 days ?

Do you think it's more than 50,000 dollars ?

More than 200,000 dollars ?

Calculator time 2^30 = ?

Thats pennies so move the decimal point 2 places to the left. Oh, I just realized fortwayne can't even see this and I'm talking to you like you're middle school students. Sorry about that.

marcus says

1) the rate that it's growing - people generally seem to have a hard time comprehending exponential growth of this kind.

hockey stick, we get it.

marcus says

:
If someone gives you one penny today, 2 pennies tomorrow, 4 pennies the following day and so on, how much money have you received have after 31 days ?

Do you think it's more than 50,000 dollars ?

53,687.091.20 or 5,368,709,120 pennies. What does that have to do with the kung flu? Are you trying to say the whole world will get the flu?

you're probably right.

marcus says

One of the things this exposes is the degree to which we seem intellectually broken. The so called information age has only made people better at believing what they want, because they can always find plenty of people that are with them no matter how stupid the point of view.

@marcus agree with you here.

The Trump haters keep coming up with specious reasons to hate him, ignoring the elephant in the room that got Trump elected: the severe harms of globalization.

https://www.thestar.com/politics/provincial/2020/03/18/poll-finds-the-economic-impact-of-covid-19-is-more-of-a-concern-than-the-health-effects.html

"Canadians are more worried about the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic than they are over the health effects of the virus, a new poll suggests.

The Campaign Research survey provided to the Star found a staggering 99 per cent of respondents are aware of the crisis — and 93 per cent are worried about the economy.

“You just never see those kinds of numbers,” Richard Ciano, a principal of Campaign Research, said Wednesday.""

https://www.sfgate.com/news/medical/article/National-parks-are-open-with-some-changes-15142095.php
"Sir, I am going to have to ask you to keep the pic-a-nic baskets away from the bear; he is smarter than the av-er-age bear!"

Patrick says

https://www.thestar.com/politics/provincial/2020/03/18/poll-finds-the-economic-impact-of-covid-19-is-more-of-a-concern-than-the-health-effects.html

"Canadians are more worried about the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic than they are over the health effects of the virus, a new poll suggests.

The Campaign Research survey provided to the Star found a staggering 99 per cent of respondents are aware of the crisis — and 93 per cent are worried about the economy.

“You just never see those kinds of numbers,” Richard Ciano, a principal of Campaign Research, said Wednesday.""

Yup.... and then you get this stupidity.....

Tim Aurora says

Now that we have established that exponential diseases , especially the one that are asymptomatic initially can suddenly creep up on us , like a wildfire and a storm , are very hard to comprehend for the normal folks till it is too late.here is an article for you


“The Imperial College London group reported that if nothing was done by governments and individuals and the pandemic remained uncontrolled, 510,000 would die in Britain and 2.2 million in the United States over the course of the outbreak,” The Post reports. Even if we now institute uniform, serious measures to mitigate the spread of the virus, we would “reduce mortality by half, to 260,000 people in the United Kingdom and 1.1 million in the United States.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/03/18/trumps-li...

Maybe the pond will fucking get full. Maybe 3-4% of it..... #Guam

Onvacation says

53,687.091.20 or 5,368,709,120 pennies. What does that have to do with the kung flu? Are you trying to say the whole world will get the flu?

The first number is a little less than the total number of Americans (not Globally) that got H1N1 back in the Obama Era: ~60M from memory, I believe.

NoCoupForYou says

Onvacation says

53,687.091.20 or 5,368,709,120 pennies. What does that have to do with the kung flu? Are you trying to say the whole world will get the flu?

The first number is a little less than the total number of Americans (not Globally) that got H1N1 back in the Obama Era: ~60M from memory, I believe.

But the pond is full of lily pads. You're not taking this seriously.

WookieMan says

NoCoupForYou says

Onvacation says

53,687.091.20 or 5,368,709,120 pennies. What does that have to do with the kung flu? Are you trying to say the whole world will get the flu?

The first number is a little less than the total number of Americans (not Globally) that got H1N1 back in the Obama Era: ~60M from memory, I believe.

But the pond is full of lily pads. You're not taking this seriously.

I find myself agreeing more and more with you but the question is what would we have done with the dying. I don't think any politician can afford to say "sorry those that don't make it are collateral damage, we all have to die at some point" - also at least in France many younger seem to be critically affected. However it is still questionable if it ever reaches the size of the swine flu. We can't get many other doctor services in the bay area because they are all "concentrating" on Covid. How is that balance determined? You're a paying healthcare customer, had some tests done, got the bill, and now they say "sorry - no treatment until further notice!" - I would not pay those bills, I mean everybody has a right to treatment, no? Who gets to decide that? Of corse you could turn to a Dr who keeps their services open but likely your insurance won't work there. Lot of people economically impacted significantly may cause more stress and lives that this. I went on a run yesterday and GG Park was PACKED - as soon as the sun came out people simply couldn't stay indoors anymore. You could still maintain 6 ft distance but it was busy, and frankly it was good to see that life as we know it didn't cease. We shall see.

Patrick says

elephant in the room that got Trump elected: the severe harms of globalization.

That's your take.

My view is that he conned people about something that they are frustrated about that has already happened, history, as if he can change or undo it. He's more or less con artist grifter. It would hurt too much to comprehend that you fell for a con. Perhaps there were several other things that appealed to you about his con. It was disegned for the Fox/Brietbart viewer. That is one of those groups I was referring to.

marcus says

The so called information age has only made people better at believing what they want, because they can always find plenty of people that are with them no matter how stupid the point of view. Hence the flat earthers, Trump, 97 genders, etc.

"Trump" was a shorthand for the Alex Jones, Sean Hannity, Rush Limbaugh, talk Radio, and Brietbart audience (any combination of those)

marcus says

something that they are frustrated about that has already happened, history, as if he can change or undo it.

Trump was making a good effort to mitigate the severe harms of globalization on US workers.

But coronavirus is going to put the fight against harmful globalization into TURBO MODE!

This is very good in the long run.

marcus says

My view is that he conned people about something that they are frustrated about that has already happened, history, as if he can change or undo it.

Will the Democrat argument be this Fall that Biden and the Democrats can't undo previous bad decisions on globalization (in particular with China) and we just have to suck it up and learn to live with pandemics and having our supply chains held hostage?

Are the Democrats "conned" in thinking we have no power to correct bad decisions?

Got to say, that is not too "Progressive"!

socal2 says

Got to say, that is not too "Progressive"!

Lol, yes, as Democrats betray absolutely everything they once stood for, they certainly should lose the "progressive" label.

They are very conservative about changing the globalization that has fucked US workers, and has now fucked the whole planet.

https://www.npr.org/2020/03/19/817974987/every-single-individual-must-stay-home-italy-s-coronavirus-deaths-pass-china-s

2nd to last paragraph.

Remuzzi says he is now hearing information about it from general practitioners. "They remember having seen very strange pneumonia, very severe, particularly in old people in December and even November," he says. "This means that the virus was circulating, at least in [the northern region of] Lombardy and before we were aware of this outbreak occurring in China."

THIS, is the fucking problem. Fucking Chinese ass hoes. It's a sheer numbers game. This has been spreading here likely for months and nobody knew it. I knew this fucking thing has been around since October/November. It's almost impossible that you haven't been exposed if you've been on a train, plane, concert, sporting event, any event since Jan/Feb.

The Media is a major part of the Problem

www.youtube.com/embed/gZwAy9RGcg8

If the Media we have today was around 80 years ago:

"The only thing we have to fear,is, fear itself."
"Is it possible that your impulse to put a positive spin on things may be giving Americans a false sense of hope?”

Why does the left say that Trump called the CoronaVirus a hoax? Is it because they are careless assholes or disingenuous assholes?

This is CNN

Stay tuned for expert advice on the Trump Virus...

Why are you changing the denomination?
This is a trick question...

marcus says

If someone gives you one penny today, 2 pennies tomorrow, 4 pennies the following day and so on, how much money have you received have after 31 days ?

Do you think it's more than 50,000 dollars ?

How about: “Which is more deadly, Wuhan virus or Fentanyl (made in China) and heroin sent across our border by Mexican cartels and distributed by Mexicans in the USA?”

The only president who has mentioned this problem is Donald Trump.

Tens of thousands of people die from drug overdoses every year.

Fuck CNN. Fuck Sean Penn. Actually in the bay area yesterday most counties added a handful of cases, down from the growth in the 20s per county. The lockdown is working but the media will milk this and try to attack orange man bad! whenever they can. There is actually a shortage of protective gear sind it can not be reused much which does piss me off, but there's no shortages of hospital beds yet. Still they postponed most visits and put in person treatments on hold for many patients, some.of them need the care or surgery critically. It's interesting how they weigh/value lives differently. It should probably go by age but it doesn't necessarily.

clambo says

The only president who has mentioned this problem is Donald Trump.

Yes, the rest of them and all of Congress are on China's payroll, via Wall Street. It was political corruption which sank the US.

There was a ton of money to be made by closing US factories and opening them in China instead. American consumers used to have savings which could be used to buy Chinese shit, so we just spent the last two decades impoverishing middle America and enriching the Middle Kingdom by moving all the factories and making ourselves dependent on China for just about everything.

This also explains the dramatic rise in imaginary "racism". This was the excuse for gutting the country to benefit the 1%. See, since all those impoverished workers are "racist", the elite didn't have to feel guilty about killing them by exporting their jobs and handing out fentanyl.

Anyone who accuses white people of "racism" is complicit in this treason. Sure, they make these accusations because of their own hatreds and insecurities, but it was funded and encouraged by Wall Street to squash any resistance to the profitable gutting of America.

Punch the next person you hear talking about how "racist" white people are. (First explain how their bogus accusations were used to kill the United States.) Also, we need to disband and burn down NPR, the NY Times, the SPLC, and all the other organizations that excused the gutting of America by yelling "racism" over and over for 20 years in order to help the globalists make us slaves of China.

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Ohhhh Nooooo. We sent all of our manufacturing to China ! It's the libs people. They're knowingly murdering us all with their desire to HAVE everything manufactured in china !. And this all just happened in the past few years, which is why I only suddenly became obsessed with this message in the past couple years.

Quick, the obvious solution is more tax cuts for the wealthy !!

Anecdote for Patrick herewith:
10 years ago I was helping my parent who was very ill who lived in a quaint small town in Connecticut.
I was dating someone from a nearby town who was of a different religion.
She commented that my town was nice, but she thought it was too “white bread.”
I pulled the car to the side of the road and told her I was white and considered that an insult and would she like to walk or hitch hike home?

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Yeah ! Right on brother ! Preach !

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IT seems like the best cars, electronics, cameras and all kinds of things were made in other countries (not China) back in the 80 and 90s (some way before). Much of it was Japan.

How did the libs get away with it so well back then and for so long, but now the very smartest critical thinkers out there are finally calling those fucking libtards out on their anti-American treason ?

clambo says

Anecdote for Patrick herewith:
10 years ago I was helping my parent who was very ill who lived in a quaint small town in Connecticut.
I was dating someone from a nearby town who was of a different religion.
She commented that my town was nice, but she thought it was too “white bread.”
I pulled the car to the side of the road and told her I was white and considered that an insult and would she like to walk or hitch hike home?

Absolutely!

It was nice of you to even give a warning.

We need to start getting very clear with anyone who spews bullshit charges of "racism".

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If someone lives in a diverse area, and they visit an all white town, and make any observation about it being noticeable that it's all white, and that they are accustomed to and prefer more diversity, such as in NY, that's incredibly racist. You were right to be offended.

A white person being called "racist" is the same level of insult as a black person being called "nigger".

What would a black person do in that case?

That is exactly what a white person should do.

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I think we're all racist.

I miss simpler times on Patrick.net, when we could all enjoy Patricks posts about black crime statistics, and how blacks really do commit more violent crime than white folks.

Patrick gets it. Being obsessed with spreading the truth isn't racism. I mean the topic might be race, and if someone feels that too many people aren't well enough informed about really true differences in races, that's not racism.

Wanting to think a lot about race doesn't make someone a racist. What if your main thought about race is how too many people are calling members of your own race racist ? That's certainly not racism. I don't know why some white folks aren't more obsessed with this. They must actually be the racists.

Tim Aurora says

Here is a quiz- A single lily pad in the pond spawns a new lily every day and each spawned lily also gets to spawn a new lily everyday. It takes the 100 days to fill the whole pond. So how many days does it take to fill approximately 3-4% of the pond.

100 days to fill 1/1 of the pond
99 days to fill 1/2 the pond
98 days to fill 1/4 of the pond
97 days to fill 1/8 of the pond
96 days to fill 1/16 of the pond
95 days to fill 1/32 of the pond

1/32 = 3.125% so 95 days.

That must be a huge pond as well. In 100 days, there would be 2^100 lily pads which works out to 1.26765060023e30. The Earth only has 196,936,994 mi² of surface area, converting that to square feet is 196,936,994 5280 5280 = 5,490,288,293,529,600 square feet. even fitting 100 lilly pads in a square foot wouldn't be enough. Hell, I think if you ever had an organism that reproduced at 1 per day and didn't die off pretty quickly, you'd have a black hole in short order, regardless of the size.

@richwicks Somehow that comment got flagged, but not by any particular person. Might be a bug.

Did you post it while logged in, or like this? :

This whole thing has become a 'hail Mary' pass for the Democratic Party. Mt left Democrat co-workers become excited at the slightest suggestion that thing are o at least maybe better than we are being told.
I do not totally agree with this guy, but, he has an interesting view:
https://www.kitco.com/news/2020-03-25/Robert-Kiyosaki-says-self-isolation-is-making-people-realize-they-got-screwed-by-system.html
But this guy is worth reading; “The current coronavirus disease, Covid-19, has been called a once-in-a-century pandemic,” he says. “But it may also be a once-in-a-century evidence fiasco,” with policymakers relying on “meaningless” statistics based on unreliable samples":
https://www.thecollegefix.com/stanford-epidemiologist-warns-that-coronavirus-crackdown-is-based-on-bad-data/