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Heard today from a broker: Lots of Houseowners are worried about a precipitous price drop coming.


               
2011 Jun 8, 1:24pm   34,454 views  87 comments

by woggs1   follow (0)  

Like a lot of people on here I am a renter in the SF Bay Area saving money and waiting for prices to become a little less insane. I work in the city (SF) and I absolutely refuse to commute everyday from some far off town so I can have a big house. So lately I have noticed that prices in the area I am interested in are coming down even know this is supposed to be the prime selling season. So I had a conversation with a broker today and he was saying that lots of real estate professionals, homeowners and sellers are very worried about a precipitous price drop coming soon to this area. This is something that I believed would happen but to hear it from a broker was quite shocking. Usually those guys only tell you what they think will make you buy right away. From my anecdotal experience prices are on the downswing with a few sucker buyers here and there paying top retail (that is still 20% less than 2006) . There are also lots of sellers in a dream world where they think their house is worth $700k or more but it has been has been on the market for six months with no bids and minimal price reductions. Has anyone else on here heard predictions of pending price reductions coming from the real estate industry? Maybe this guy is one of the rare honest RE professionals because I can't see how saying that prices will soon come down will help him make a sale.

#housing

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81   FunTime   2011 Jun 14, 2:17am  

thomas.wong1986 says

Thats why residents, young ones, are broke. Live paycheck to paycheck. Gotta to out gotta spend on the trendy stuff… the above isnt free nor cheap.

Oh man, I disagree with your last point. All of the places I mentioned rarely have events over twenty and most of the music clubs I mentioned usually have $7-10 cover charges.

Young people do live paycheck-to-paycheck, but that's not unique to SF. It's easy to understand too, with so many interesting events going on every week.

On top of what I listed, national touring music acts often start their tours on the West Coast because of the weather and they almost always play San Francisco unless they're a mega-big, popular act. So the Spring is incredible in SF. There's always way too many music acts to possibly catch.

I forgot the Hardly Strictly Bluegrass Festival in October!! One of the best events. Very crowded, but if you pick the strategy of hunkering down at one stage and staying put, soaking up some sun, and having a cold one, this event is amazing. And it's FREE.

82   FunTime   2011 Jun 14, 2:26am  

simchaland says

Also, those 66 concerts make their tours to every major city in the US. That isn’t uniquely San Franciscan.

There are some really cool things with big music acts that happen because SF mostly has small venues. Like The Black Crowes playing five nights at The Fillmore.

83   FunTime   2011 Jun 14, 2:54am  

simchaland says

They are unique pieces that are uniquely Chicagoan.

I can certainly understand a love affair with Chicago. I love that city and visit whenever I get a chance.

simchaland says

There are real Picasso installations in Chicago that are part of that city’s regular ambiance that Picasso actually created for Chicago and he installed these installations himself.

Like the Holdenberg sculpture on the Embarcadero? I get the idea you're looking for very specific things. I'd be surprised if you didn't find them.

simchaland says

I’m looking for San Francisco’s contribution to the world of the arts. I’m still not seeing much that originates in San Francisco.

Do you have a specific time period in mind? Only contemporary contributions?
It's difficult to attribute a city with major art contributions, since big changes and movements usually come from many individuals and locations and represent a more complex system than is reflected in simple labels like "The Beats" or "The Hippies" or "Psychedelia." The Grateful Dead, for example, spent a lot of their early development south of San Francisco near Palo Alto. Still San Francisco is generally attributed a role in fostering Beat Poetry, Psychedelic Music, New Journalism, American Punk music, major American cinema influence and contribution, metal music, and political/people movements which occurred in the 1960's. I'm an amateur student of these things, though, so check it out yourself.

84   corntrollio   2011 Jun 14, 3:45am  

dodgerfanjohn says

The restaurant was El Cholo.

While El Cholo is no where near authentic mexican food, the downtown LA location on non Staples center event nights is around 80-90% latino customers. I live down the street and the neighborhood is highly mixed.

You're talking about the valet-parked El Cholo in Santa Monica and trying to make a statement about diversity? That really makes your comment fall flat. It's like complaining there aren't enough Chinese people at the PF Chang's near the 3rd Street Promenade. That's not to say El Cholo is a bad place, but you have to put it in context.

85   corntrollio   2011 Jun 14, 3:53am  

illustrateth says

There’s a restaurant called, “The Garlic Rose,” where everything you order has garlic in it.

Do you mean the Stinking Rose? It's not bad if you know what you're in for, but it's not that different from all the other tourist traps in North Beach except for the heavier garlic emphasis. Also, how is it uniquely San Francisco if you can find the exact same restaurant in Beverly Hills?

SF ace says

Per capita/GDP and median income is the highest in the United states. This is a wealthy region no matter the metric and top heavy.

That's true of the Bay Area in general, and partly because of the wealth down the Peninsula, but that doesn't apply to the city and county of San Francisco.

Also, is your 130K millionaires in now 800K+ San Francisco accurate? I've seen heavy doubts about that number before, here is a random link off Google:

http://sfist.com/2009/07/16/two_studies_conflict_over_number_of.php

That's not to say that there aren't a decent number of wealthy folk in SF, but it's not as much as the rumors often say. The median income in SF is still quite low.

86   clambo   2011 Jun 14, 4:24am  

Except where 1. employment is good 2. wages are good 3. new fools, e.g. foreigners with aspirations and no knowledge of history 4. excellent prime locations e.g. Carmel, prices in general are going down.
The situation will not improve with the present anti-energy, anti-business, pro-regulation climate. When this changes it will be after more political change. This requires elections.
Even then, if and when the economy improves so employment may improve, as soon as interest rates go up (which is inevitable), house prices will fall a little bit more.
People who have an emotional investment will argue and fight the reality staring them in the face. This is just typical human behavior.
The Catalyst in santa cruz is for sale for 2.2 million. There is so much empty commercial real estate in the downtown right now. There is a new and empty building across from O'Neill. There are tons of empty storefronts. My friend was almost bursting a vein in his neck arguing with me that the Catalyst would be a pretty good purchase for 2.2 million. I laughed at him.
Oh, he's got a little mortgage problem himself, so he's touchy on the subject.
Another guy I know inherited $90K and bought a tiny shack 670 square ft. for $450K, and wanted to "flip" it. Instead, he wanted to hold it a little while and make MORE Money. What happened? He lost it, lost everything, and the bank lost a bundle too.

87   corntrollio   2011 Jun 14, 4:48am  

SF ace says

Metro Wealth index: 2011. This is invest-able assets, so excludes home equity.

San Francisco #5 138,300

http://www.therichest.org/nation/american-cities-with-the-highest-millionaires-2011/

Again, that is San Francisco MSA (which does not include San Jose MSA), not the City and County of San Francisco. You are comparing apples and oranges because you are trying to make claims about the City and County of San Francisco by using data about either San Francisco MSA or the Bay Area in general.

San Francisco COUNTY does not even come up on the Top 25 for Median Household Income -- Marin and Santa Clara are 18th and 19th:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Highest-income_counties_in_the_United_States

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