patrick.net

We moved from SV to Concord, in 2001, and bought a house. Housing is affordable, and overall there are a lot of really nice areas in the East Bay. At first I really missed SV weather. It gets hot in Concord in the summer but the evenings are balmy and nice with warm breezes. We recently visited Texas. We are intrigued by it. But I doubt if could stand the humidity and extreme heat. Still, I'm not happy with California taxes and politics.

My take: you might as well stay here and sock away enough money to retire somewhere else - how many years would that take you?
Then you could move to *wherever* you wanted and work part-time at *whatever* you wanted. That's heaven on earth, right? It's like you've gamed the system and are winning.

We live in the East Bay and commute to SV. The East Bay is nice but it seems that anything that is remotely within commutable distance to SV is still too expensive- expensive to me meaning $450,000-$500,000. Pleasanton and Livermore have come to mind... but these are simply too far for any kind of sane commute. That's the problem with the Bay Area: Anything close to the major job centers is still prohibitive. The freeway and public transit system are such that commuting too the immediate Bay Area is a nightmare. Thus you're either stuck with a god-awful commute or expensive housing.

Arnold Layne says

My take: you might as well stay here and sock away enough money to retire somewhere else - how many years would that take you?
Then you could move to *wherever* you wanted and work part-time at *whatever* you wanted. That’s heaven on earth, right? It’s like you’ve gamed the system and are winning.

I'm guessing probably another 10 years. Maybe less. Depends if we can continue renting the same house for cheap. Sooner if we chose to live out in the sticks.

Another thing I worry about is that we're obviously not the only people doing this. Last I read California, NY, MA, and all the other bubble states have been losing tons of people for years. Whenever I visit NC its like there's a whole new chunk of town that didn't exist a few years ago. Austin to me felt like it could turn into the Bay Area any day. So its not like these places will likely stay as affordable in the coming years simply because they're attracting so many people- particularly young professionals. So therein lies the dilemma that if we wait for too long- who knows? There might exist the same problem in those states as well.

thank god someone else is pondering the same issue. Of all our colleagues and friends here, the ones who love living here (and are willing to deal with the financial stress) are digging in like ticks. The others have all moved away. Now we find ourselves in a similar quandary. Do we stay or go? I have a fantastic job at an amazing company. I have job security and my career is taking off. Financially we are doing well - low debt, good savings, own property elsewhere for which we were able to pay cash. That said, my wife and I simply are not happy here. It does not emotionally fulfill or reward us and like any relationship, if it's not fulfilling your needs, even if it's a pleasant and tolerable relationship, then it is not necessarily healthy. We have decided to leave. We simply haven't decided when. Where? Who knows - I'm limited by work. But having just reasoned out our decision has been very freeing for us.

What we realized is that we spend every day trying to be thankful for what we have but find ourselves asking the questions of why we pay so much to live here and should we stay. And we realized that if we're asking those question every day, then we should be somewhere where we aren't asking those questions.

(we don't have kids - if we had kids and they were in school, had friends, that would completely alter any decision making - it would be what's best for them, ie staying).

Oakland is hit or miss. The decent areas are pricey. About the same as you'd find everywhere else in the Bay Area.

Katy Perry says

spend one winter in any other place in America and then ask “is it worth it to live in The Bay Area.”
for that matter spend one summer also.

I have lived in Taiwan, England, California (Daly city, walnut creek, san jose, san diego, san francisco, rockridge, alameda), New York, Chicago, Las Vegas, and spent considerable amounts of time traveling in southeast asia.

What I will say is until you live somewhere else for a year or more, you have no idea 1) how bad heat and humidity really is and 2) how well your body adapts to it.

I remember riding a school bus in tallahassee and passing bank signs with temp readings of 120+. With full on humidity, did it suck? yeah, was it that bad after awhile? No, not really.

I love love love chicago, are the winters bad and the summers bad? Sure, it's got seasons, some people actually enjoy that. If you lived in a downtown high-rise and you looked down over downtown chicago and the lake as snow is falling beneath you, it's actually pretty bad-ass.

I grew up in Walnut Creek and before grad school thought that SF was the only place anybody with any brains would want to live. Now that I have lived elsewhere, I've only realized how naive and sheltered I was. Most people in California need to get their heads out their asses and realize that there are some amazing places out there.

oakland is perfect if you're rich, have 3 or more kids in a triple wide stroller and like to walk around as if you own the sidewalk, then rockridge is perfect.

If you're middle/upper middle class and actually want some culture, oakland is great but very sketchy at the same time. Good for singles, not good for families that aren't trust fund babies.

After 15 years in the Bay area my partner and I moved to Austin, TX last year after my company laid me off. We sold our home, said good-bye to long time friends and moved in search of a less expensive life. I grew up in TX and graduated from UT Austin so it's great to be closer to family again.

However Austin is not the promised land. We looked at dozens of homes in the $200-250K range and they reminded me of fixer homes I lived in as a college student. Finally we found a place with some acreage about 15 minutes outside central Austin. Now we have our garden where we grow our own food, have chickens and are doing what we can to be self sustainable. Life is good.

And although there are lots of jobs here there is tons of competition. A job paying job in Austin is about $15 an hour. Many are contract only and only for a few months with no benefits. I have so much experience and certifications that I find I'm either 'too qualified' for most jobs that are offered or employers don't want to hire anyone for the long term. I know plenty of college grads who can't find long term employment in Austin. So I'm an entrepreneur finding lots of creative ways to supplement my savings. Prices are much more reasonable here but insurance, utilities and taxes are a lot higher than in CA. In fact taxes are our biggest expense since we moved here and they go up every year. My partner with a Masters degree and years of experience landed a job paying less than half what he was making in San Francisco.

I say if you have a job that you like then stay with it. Continue saving because you never know when your situation will change through no fault of your own. I love Austin but I would still be in northern CA if I could afford it.

ih8alameda2 says

What I will say is until you live somewhere else for a year or more, you have no idea 1) how bad heat and humidity really is and 2) how well your body adapts to it.

I did. First 21 years of my life was spent in NC. Yes- it gets hot and humid. I didn't travel that much beyond the state's border thus I never really thought about the weather. It is what it is. Summers to me meant HOT humid. I will say that I did live in New England for a year and the winters there SUCKED. So basically I'm ok with hot and humid weather. Not frigid weather though.

What always comes to mind is just how different my friends and family live back home. My parents live probably a good 30 minutes from a minor city. They live in a fairly nice house on around 12 acres. They have a nice workshop, a greenhouse, pool, and 2 newer cars. Its 10 minutes from a huge lake where I used to swim in the summer. Neither have super well-paying jobs. They have no debt. They make around 50% less combined than I do.

Their property is valued at $170,000 total. That same property anywhere near where we live would cost several million- if not close to 10 million. Sure- they don't get all the excitement from living in a big city. But they travel and have been all over Europe, Asia, and the Mediterranean. Its not like I am jealous. Its just that its amazing to me that they have ordinary unglamorous jobs and yet live a lifestyle that would require a millionaire's salary in the Bay Area. Its a grossly drastic difference. Hence I am always asking the question of what it would have been like had I stayed. Chances are I would have never thought about it. But after living here in the Bay Area it makes one have perspective.

Finally a good thread. Edvard, there are indeed a lot of us like you. I go back and forth on the same thoughts, often. My basic plan: retire back east near family and old friends. The issue with that for me is, time passes and you are far away, and those familial and fraternal connections get frayed or decrease anyway. Will everyone still be around by the time I choose to retire (or cash in)?

The whole debating weather and pluses and minuses (Bay area is soooo great v. the bay are is not all it's cracked up to be) is a non-issue for me. Eventually, I expect to move "home".

One thing I'm not sure if you've considered (haven't read every word of this thread) - buy your retirement house now, or in the next year or so while the places you are targeting remain down. I am certainly not one to believe there will be a "huge increase" or that the previous peaks are coming back any time soon - but I do think buying low is a good idea, and most of the U.S. is generally a lot lower now. Maybe you could buy in a place you have loved ones and use it as a vacation home (holiday trips, etc.). Maybe you could buy in a place you want to be when you get old and rent it out in the meantime (even if you don't completely "make money" on the rents as an investment).

Do you have "things to accomplish" still that require you stay where you are for a while? Are you really ready to cash in your chips and "go home". That seems like the question. For me, it's just a matter of when - although the longer I stay the more entrenched life gets.

And yep. The bay area is a nice place to visit, and with the cheaper lifestyle other places, you can visit whenever you want.

A few years ago I was in a gorgeous little New England town for a year. The seasons were all different, and the only bummer was the transition between fall and winter. Snow makes any place beautiful in my opinion. This of course was an exceptional case, since the town was prosperous. I would live there again no problem. My old friend who lives in New Hampshire (no income tax, no sales tax!) had a solution to the winter cold and blues: go to a warm place for a month each year. After Christmas, this breaks up the bitter cold and recharges her batteries. Winter is very tolerable then.
I think a pretty place with seasons and lots of sun is Colorado, but I have only one friend who moved out there.
Returning to California from my hiatus I got the impression that things here have changed since I arrived in 82 from Mexico. I lived in a touristic area for a couple of years.
It is the age-old question of where to live, how to make changes, how to adapt to new places.

new to Austin says

And although there are lots of jobs here there is tons of competition. A job paying job in Austin is about $15 an hour. Many are contract only and only for a few months with no benefits. I have so much experience and certifications that I find I’m either ‘too qualified’ for most jobs that are offered or employers don’t want to hire anyone for the long term.

I experienced this same exact thing: For years I'd read about the fantastic , growing, fabulous tech industry in Austin. The city seems to always make the top of the list of everything: The BEST place to work, the BEST place to live, the most affordable housing, etc etc etc. That and its routinely advertised as this cool, hip, liberal, artsy-fartsy city in the middle of TX. We visited 2 years ago. Its nice. Its definitely like a "Little SF" with hot weather. But... I lost my job a few years back and for the heck of it applied to numerous jobs in Austin. Keep in mind I am well-qualified, seasoned, and have worked for a wide variety of different companies. I got like ZERO responses. At first I thought maybe it was because they saw I lived in Cali. I removed that info from my resume. That made little difference. From what few companies I heard back from most were super-entry level jobs paying 50% or more less than my previous salary. As you mentioned, many were temporary contract jobs. I even had a few headhunters. One of the headhunters told me the competition for jobs was very competitive and some jobs would get 150 resumes within a day. I almost landed a job at a company that was in the exact same biz I had come from- which is highly specialized. The pay was pitiful- as in $30k. But I went for it anyway. I did not make the cut. Bottom line: Austin sounds great, but you had better bring lots of money because the job situation there sounds anything but good. This came as a shock to me after hearing how grrreat! Austin was supposed to be.

pkowen says

One thing I’m not sure if you’ve considered (haven’t read every word of this thread) - buy your retirement house now, or in the next year or so while the places you are targeting remain down.

I'm not really wild about that notion. That means suddenly becoming a landlord across the country. We're also fairly peculiar about where we live, what type of neighborhoods there are, and so on. basically things you won't know until you rent in an area for at least a year. It took me years to get accustomed to the Bay Area. I imagine it will be the same elsewhere.

The Bay Area can be as cheap or expensive as you want it to be. I chose to not work in SV and restrict my jobs to SF/Oakland/WC/Concord and live in West Contra Costa County. You can buy a house in this area from 200-400k easy - 200k if you live small, 400k for 1800sf++ newer home in a nicer area. I am close to everything, and personally love being within 30 minutes to SF, 30 minutes to Napa and an easy escape to the Sierras or to Sonoma/Mendocino.

I was offered several jobs in other states, but both my husband and I would have had to take 10%+ pay cuts, and with the way we chose to live here housing with property taxes would have been MORE expensive in many places.

We have dozens of friends that live comfortably in lovely homes in lovely neighborhoods on working and middle class salaries. We have active lifestyles and enjoy all the things the Bay Area has to offer including owning a horse, boating most weekends, and enjoying the city and Napa Valley. But, if you require a big, fancy house in an "exclusive" neighborhood, yep it's expensive.

Personally, I enjoy the Bay Area and Northern California for everything it offers me outside my house.

Austin is a very small city (500k?) with a large college. Companies like to locate there for CHEAP COLLEGE LABOR and cheap rent.

If you work in IT you will find all pay rates severely depressed because the college and post college students ALL want to live/work in hip cool austin (and its cheap!) - so wages are depressed big time.

IMO it only makes sense if you are a SR level and can get top rate salary in Austin - thus you are 'rich' in TX. 30k a year in TX is probably = 50k in CA so its poor.

Quality of life issues are intangible. I suppose for the most $ you should work in Manhattan for highest pay rate AND live with 10 roomates in a box and save maximum $. (this sounds awful)

edvard2 says

I’m not really wild about that notion. That means suddenly becoming a landlord across the country.

Yeah, I know what you mean. If I were to do it, it would be back in a place I already lived for 10+ years, where I know the market very, very well, and where I would use a management company. Or, I would just buy my 'vacation/retirement' house and not rent it out at all, just use it for a few weeks here and there and "have it". That's the issue - the carrying costs are not really worth it for that, even for a $200k or less house, and I'll probably just stay flexible and buy when (and where) I do retire. I don't think housing is going to become 'out of reach' in 20 years. The only people who think that are those bulls who are already invested and see their own well-being tied to that happening.

Tude says

The Bay Area can be as cheap or expensive as you want it to be. I chose to not work in SV and restrict my jobs to SF/Oakland/WC/Concord and live in West Contra Costa County. You can buy a house in this area from 200-400k easy - 200k if you live small, 400k for 1800sf++ newer home in a nicer area.

Where are you finding 200k homes in the Bay Area? Wern't you the person who put an offer on a house for 260k only to be outbid by an all-cash investor? I have to see anything in that price range that has a reasonable commute to SV or SF.

edvard2 says

Even post-bust it still appears that a halfway decent house is still hovering around $450,000-$500,000. Speculators seem to be ensuring that anything reasonable is churned into “investments”. Things don’t seem to be improving here. Its still an expensive place to live. It gets old after awhile.

It's not just housing either. I have similar thoughts to you, edvard2, and I feel it stems from one thing -- the "California Dream" of the Baby Boomer generation is no longer here. The Baby Boomer generation got everything they could want -- it was cheaper to live here, college was dirt cheap, the schools were better than good and had amazing services, Prop 13 passed at the right time for them, etc. And that is true even for many people with working class jobs. That generation has left California worse than they found it.

Now, we have overcrowded schools, overcrowded jails, budgets that can't be balanced without drastic cuts, rising college tuition and massive student loans, astronomical housing prices (that are made worse by Prop 13), raised and rising taxes, and other changes that are making this a poorer state. Meanwhile, the Boomers are still reaping the benefits of things like high salaries and pensions in government jobs and high home prices when they sell (even in places where prices have dropped) after buying at rock bottom. The younger generations are worse off.

Silicon Valley wouldn't have existed without the California Dream of yore, but I feel the good times have passed us by.

I'm a 5th generation northern California native. For decades I knew I could never afford to retire in California so I've been considering the move for a long time. At the peak of the boom - May 2006 - I sold my San Jose crapshack for almost $700K and moved to Boise. Once I got here I discovered I had enough money with the local COL to just retire at age 52.

It's hard to determine whether a person would be happy in SW Idaho. I'm a libertarian-conservative which means I fit in with Idaho culture just fine. If you are a liberal, or a bible-thumping social conservative, stay away from Idaho. The state itself is basically another California without a seacoast: deserts, mountains, river, lakes, and agricultural land. No seacoast but only 1.5 million people to consider in the balance.

My advice is to get out a map of the 50 states and think about living in each one. You may find it's easier to cross off all the places you couldn't stand and then consider what's left.

DennisN says

The state itself is basically another California without a seacoast: deserts, mountains, river, lakes, and agricultural land.

From what I understand, even the skiing there is quite good. There are even some tech jobs there besides Micron/Crucial/Lexar -- I remember getting my RAM from Crucial Technology shipped from Meridian (and being slightly annoyed because it took longer to get it via UPS).

edvard2 says

Tude says

The Bay Area can be as cheap or expensive as you want it to be. I chose to not work in SV and restrict my jobs to SF/Oakland/WC/Concord and live in West Contra Costa County. You can buy a house in this area from 200-400k easy - 200k if you live small, 400k for 1800sf++ newer home in a nicer area.

Where are you finding 200k homes in the Bay Area? Wern’t you the person who put an offer on a house for 260k only to be outbid by an all-cash investor? I have to see anything in that price range that has a reasonable commute to SV or SF.

There are homes all over Concord, Pinole, Hercules, Martinez, Oakland, Castro Valley, all are a reasonable commute into SF/Oakland/Dublin/Pleasanton.

I even have a friend that has a cute little house they paid less than 300k for in East Palo Alto on a nice street. Once again...people are looking for specific area codes and city names. East Palo Alto scares people away.

And btw, I was wrong about the house I put an offer in on, the listing agent was fired from the Bank and the house is still on the market. And it is a VERY unique property, for just a regular 3 bedroom home you wont have a lot of competition.

Tude says

We have dozens of friends that live comfortably in lovely homes in lovely neighborhoods on working and middle class salaries. We have active lifestyles and enjoy all the things the Bay Area has to offer including owning a horse, boating most weekends, and enjoying the city and Napa Valley.

sorry, not happening on middle class salaries, last i checked owning a horse and boat weren't exactly cheap.

and it's not just the commute, do your friends have or plan on having children? it's not always about a fancy home in an "exclusive" neighborhood, for most people, it's usually about wanting the best you can afford for your children and that unfortunately starts with looking at public schools.

danacebi says

Rents have been skyrocketing

Where? I just checked and it looks like rents in my area might be down $100-200/mo on Craigslist over the last year or so.

The outlier appears to be someone who overpaid for a house built in 2005 and is desperately trying to rent the house for above-market rent. They paid about $200K more than even the most expensive houses in the neighborhood is currently selling for (and that's with a $100K+ discount from the original listing price). The previous owner in 2005 paid about $140K more than the current owner. I wonder if a NOD has been issued.

I was born in California in 1949. You people in this discussion are for the most part far younger than I. But I "escaped" as a native born Californian in my late 30's and I like to tell people "There is life after California!"

No, there is nowhere with the same wonderful weather. There is an abundance of scenery changes within a short distance within California. There is the green grass and flowers which start sometimes in February in California and not until June up north. The foothills of the Sierra, which I grew up looking at before all the smog obliterated them, are magical and I miss them to this day.

What I don't miss are the tales of daily drive-by shootings; the congestion; the shoddy pavement on all major roads; the constant politcal wrangle; the exhoribant fees for everything. I don't miss how everyone there seems to be about keeping up, on whatever treadmill they are on.

I moved to Oregon for 20 years+ and am now in Arizona. Either state has given me personal freedoms never allowed in California. I can't speak to your standard of living in terms of jobs in the BA since I usually went through there as fast as my car would travel, thinking the entire time--who would possibly want to live here?

Believe me, I understand the allure of money. But finding the perfect place to live is often much more than that. I applaud you who are seaching your souls to discover the nirvana which will help make your life complete. When one is caught up in that culture and that environment, which the BA breeds, it's like there is nothing beyond that. Personally, I think there is.

For 13 years I have lived in many states as a fulltime RVer as my husband and I have followed constructiion. I have been amazed and delighted at the experience. There is no ONE best place, excepting where your heart finds its home. No one can tell anyone else what is really best for them. Frankly, I have found I could probably live in a lot of them except one. I will never return to California.

The same goes to northen virginia right next to washington DC. Two of the wealthiest counties in whole US. Can't really complain about the weather too. Quite nice places here and there arround the city. Jobs, shopping, dinning, education, hospital etc is pretty good too. Pretty much everything is available if you know what I mean.

My wife grew up in here, and I am living here since 1999. So, do we like this place so far? Hell no. We're quite people and this is not the kind of place we could love. Too busy, too expensive, too rude, and too messed up. We'd be long gone and never looked back if our careers were not tied in this area. But knowing that we have no option but staying here for another decade or so, we're going to stay put till, we saved enough money to retire. I'll probabaly go to upstate NY or western PA for the peace of mind and friendly people, or to small town in east FL by the sea for the laid back life style... when the wife agrees on that idea. She had little different idea about where to live. She'd like to retire to asian countries, not decided which one though, she want to see how life is like in those places. Gotta break my back, earn lot of money by then. lol.

Life after CA has an interesting story. My friend has a similar story, he sold his house in Berkeley a few years ago and retired from being a guard at San Quentin. He spent his worknights reading while the convicts slept. He and his wife are both under 60, retired, and drive around with an SUV pulling a small airstream trailer to places all over. Right now I believe they are in the Gulf coast. He's about the mellowest and most interesting guys I know. I think the only thing I would truly miss in California is the coast. I've hiked around south of Carmel and from a hillside watched whales in the blue Pacific. But, our daily existence is not enjoying scenery all of the time, and going deeply into debt to buy into it may just not be worth it for people who like the idea of being able to make a change.
Imagine those who left Holland and England hundreds of years ago when there were just colonies here, it boggles my mind sometimes.

corntrollio says

danacebi says

Rents have been skyrocketing

Where? I just checked and it looks like rents in my area might be down $100-200/mo on Craigslist over the last year or so.
The outlier appears to be someone who overpaid for a house built in 2005 and is desperately trying to rent the house for above-market rent. They paid about $200K more than even the most expensive houses in the neighborhood is currently selling for (and that’s with a $100K+ discount from the original listing price). The previous owner in 2005 paid about $140K more than the current owner. I wonder if a NOD has been issued.

San Jose to San Francisco. I live in the peninsula and its absolutely sickening. Look for any house or apartment and they are averaging $200+ per month over last year, which was already $100 over the year before.

Foreclosures are happening left and right here too; but the banks do a much better job of hiding it as they stand to loose far more for their precious walked chicken shacks in the $Real Bay Area$. Redwood city/Daily City and S. San Francisco are the outliers in the price climb; but rents are not going down their either.

Actually living around here can be reasonably priced compared to other urban areas of the world. What IS overpriced is the whole "package" of living in a Fortress enrollment area of a top-API, with an oversized SFH. Most people in most urban places in the world don't have such large homes.

This is a terrific thread! Long time reader, first time commenter...

Sorry to be late to comment, but it really hits home because my wife and I are trying to figure out what to do, although the circumstances are somewhat different. We met in grad school at Stanford, but after graduation we moved to Boston to start our careers (mine as a professor; hers as a doctor) and recently had a baby. We loved our time in the bay area, and always dreamed of coming back, but when the opportunity presented itself we stumbled onto the same concerns that many of you have raised (e.g., cost, traffic, etc.) -- even if we ignored the overpricing of SFH, it is simply stunning how little house you can get within a 20 minute commute (on a professor+doctor salary).... We never had to think about it in grad school (read: subsidized grad housing + rently cheaply in Menlo Park :), but were shocked to realize that we've been priced out of most SFH within a 20 minute commute to school. ...I can only guess that all the rich Google and Facebook folks want to live close to campus...

(BTW, Stanford has chronic trouble hiring professors because of this problem -- their most recent "solution" to the problem is to build "high-rise" town-house style "homes" for faculty on campus. If you're interested, take a drive down El Camino in PA and turn right/west on Stanford Avenue...looks like track housing to me, and sells for ~700+ if you have a tenure-track offer from Stanford (i.e., still subsidized). If you're interested, compare this to the old "faculty getto" homes on "the hill" by taking another right onto Raimundo...some beautiful old homes that are mostly occupied by faculty widows and/or emeritus Stanford professors...but I digress.)

So now we live in Boston, and are facing a very similar choice. The good school districts here are in Brookline and Newton (think Menlo Park and Los Altos) and Wellesley (think Atherton), but the prices are not much better (although you can find a few things for under a million, so not precisely as bad as Atherton, but still pretty challenging if you don't want to completely leverage your life).

so, while I'm really sympathetic to clambo's statement...

clambo says

A few years ago I was in a gorgeous little New England town for a year. The seasons were all different, and the only bummer was the transition between fall and winter. Snow makes any place beautiful in my opinion. This of course was an exceptional case, since the town was prosperous. I would live there again no problem.

...the "gorgeous little New England town" probably has a tough commute to Boston (where your jobs are if you an academic/doctor family like mine) and the school districts may not be so hot. Parts of New England *are* gorgeous (e.g., we've substituted Vermont trips for Half Moon Bay trips), but you're basically looking at Boston/Cambridge or Route-128 for the best paying jobs...

If you're interested, there is a little sister site to patrick.net called www.bostonbubble.com where these issues are debated frequently. :)

so, anyhow, we're left with a very similar decision that many of you are facing. My wife is from Texas, so Austin comes up in our conversations a lot. We also like Chapel Hill, NC, so the triangle is top of mind too. I also wanted to give a shoutout to ih8alameda2....

ih8alameda2 says

I love love love chicago, are the winters bad and the summers bad? Sure, it’s got seasons, some people actually enjoy that. If you lived in a downtown high-rise and you looked down over downtown chicago and the lake as snow is falling beneath you, it’s actually pretty bad-ass.

...because we've been seriously considering Chicago as well. I've been on the 40th floor of one of those high-rises in the winter, and I agree it is beautiful, especially if you have a view of the lake. I think the Northern suburbs are more our speed given our growing family, but in general I've been pretty impressed with the lifestyle aspects of Chicago. People love the lake in the summer...and the restaurants are great...feels like a city of great size/scope like New York, but unlike Boston (which feels like "a small town" city at times). Of course, Chicago is cold...but I think I can deal with that for an affordable house, nice neighborhood, reasonable commute, and happy family. Honestly, if you would have told me 3 years ago that I'd be angling to move from Boston to somewhere even colder (!) -- or someplace not the Bay Area -- I'd have laughed in your face.

It's amazing what a few years and a new family can do to your perspective on these issues...

Life aftter CA says

I was born in California in 1949. You people in this discussion are for the most part far younger than I. But I “escaped” as a native born Californian in my late 30’s and I like to tell people “There is life after California!” .... I moved to Oregon for 20 years+ and am now in Arizona. Either state has given me personal freedoms never allowed in California. ....

Really an amazing post by Life after LA...wish I could quote it all. I hope that someday we can say we lived in place as nice as Oregon, or even Arizona for 20+ years! I wish my job could bring me there... 'Life' is right that there is no ONE best place, so maybe you can only "have it all" over long stretches of time, and only if you're willing to be flexible and move.

We're happy we had our time in the Bay Area. Probably what I didn't share is that I've lived in LA, Utah, Oregon, while my wife has lived in Dallas and Chapel Hill, NC. ...so somewhere like Chicago sounds great in principle, but we're reluctant to pull the trigger because I still long for the mountains and desserts of the West, and my wife longs for the South. Ugh...seems like we're doomed to be unsatisfied along some dimension no matter what; oh well, I guess that's life. :/

Maybe we'll just RV around the country when the kids are off to college...really like that idea! :)

It's ironic that we end up discussing shelter so often in an area where you barely need it. There's fundamental value to mammals living in a place where the weather won't kill you.

I have lived in Chicago Area, Cincinnati, Virginia (Workplace DC) and of course Bay Area. I think every city has its own beauty and thank God for that. I missed Chicago when I left Chicago, I missed DC/Virginia when I left East Coast but I missed Bay Area the most when I left the Bay Area... may be I came back because of the friends but as I said, every place has its own beauty and charm. If I move, it will be to experience a new place.

If you like your job, and as you mention "we" several times - I assume your spouse or partner likes their job and you both are making good money, I would advise that you stick here for another 5-10 years while saving at the rate that you are. What I have heard from friends living in Raleigh, Austin etc are that there are jobs over there but not as many choices as in the bay area. So, if you intend job hopping, it is better in the bay area than elsewhere.
After living in the bay area for a long time, I like the diversity as well as the opportunities here - but they are not worth the aggravation of the astronomical cost of living and the low living standards as compared to other areas (e.g. a $100K salary will buy you a poor lifestyle here).
I suggest that in the next 5-10 years that you narrow down the place of choice and your retirement strategy and even buy your house in that area and rent it out before you move out there.
Good luck, you are not alone.

ih8alameda2 says

for most people, it’s usually about wanting the best you can afford for your children and that unfortunately starts with looking at public schools.

What is "best"?

Is an elite-API school of like-minded grade grubbers staffed by educators and administrators who take all of the credit for academic scores from the TigerMom ethic of the Entitlement students what's "best" for your kids?

If that's "best" then I agree the housing is overpriced.

A friend of our family moved out to Austin a few years back, owns a huge house there for around 180, pays no state income tax since TX doesn’t charge any. Weather is not as good as in CA, gets very humid in the summer, but jobs are there. It’s a fun little techie college town.

No offense, but this is the going canard. Our local Chamber of Commerce couldn't have drafted it better.

It could be your friend actually did buy a huge place for a buck eighty, but if it was in the past 5-7 years, he was either lying to make you feel like a schmuck for staying in CA, or he bought way the hell out in Round Rock ~ 20-30 minutes outside of Central Austin.

If you work in IT you will find all pay rates severely depressed because the college and post college students ALL want to live/work in hip cool austin (and its cheap!) - so wages are depressed big time.

Another canard. I realize this is anecdotal, but my wife is in IT (not a salesperson, either) and makes more than she would make in California -- this is based upon two offers she's turned down in the past 18 mos from companies based in Sunnyvale. The total compensation was either break-even or less. Besides, I don't want to live in Sunnyvale.

Having typed that, Austin is not the hotbed of high-paying tech-jobs that some believe -- despite that Austin essentially buys jobs by throwing juicy taxpayer funded grants/tax breaks combined with low interest loans at companies so they'll move their operations here. What ends up happening is that a good chunk of the workforce relocates along with the company.

It's also not cheap! At least not especially so. I guess it might seem that way to folks who are used to being gouged, but hey...it ain't Toledo.

I like Austin a lot, but I've lived all over, and love a lot of different cities for different reasons, and most of them are one cheap SouthWest flight away. That's how I feel about California. It's cheaper to visit, and I'm usually out there about two or three times a year, which is plenty. Point being, no matter where you end up, it's not the Bermuda Triangle. You CAN go back.

Anyway, Edvard -- good luck with your quandary. I think a lot of savers feel your frustration. Sometimes I think an Airstream setup outside the Joshua Tree National Park would be just about IT.

Austin,
I remember I met a Texan who looked and talked like Hank on King of the Hill, Hank plus several stones. He told me that "we" (I think "we" meant his family) don't like Austin because they tolerate homosexuals. He told me that where he lived if "we" saw that "we'd pull over the truck and beat their ass."

Hey Austin, thanks for your post, that's useful. Could you give us some perspective on whether you think Austin housing prices are in a "bubble"? (I assumed so given your screenname.) I've heard from other people in Austin that there is an expectation that housing will continue to decline there...I'm sure a lot of Bay Area folks would be more reluctant to jump in if that were the case. Also, I'm still a little confused about the tax structure, and how that figures in. Are there any "austinbubble" related resources you could pass along? Or even just your perspective, and a few anecdotes you think are typical? thanks.

sybrib says

ih8alameda2 says

for most people, it’s usually about wanting the best you can afford for your children and that unfortunately starts with looking at public schools.

What is “best”?

Is an elite-API school of like-minded grade grubbers staffed by educators and administrators who take all of the credit for academic scores from the TigerMom ethic of the Entitlement students what’s “best” for your kids?

If that’s “best” then I agree the housing is overpriced.

We could do a whole other thread on whether the premium school districts are worth it -- my experience in trying to understand Boston school districts is that it's all relative to the alternatives. Some Boston public schools really do stink (e.g., gangs, meth, fights...+ low test scores), which makes the drive to snooty Brookline or Newton school districts even more intense. Not sure how this works in the Bay Area...maybe the Fremont and San Jose schools are not much worse than Palo Alto and Menlo-Atherton, but I doubt it...

Like sybrib, I don't relish being surrounded by grade-grubbing Tigermom-families...I agree this is a real, and dispiriting phenomena that is making our schools a less friendly place. (For those who are interested, I recommend seeing http://www.racetonowhere.com/.)

But I think what ih8alameda2 is saying is that it's pretty natural to make education a top priority when house-hunting. It's a sad but true fact that educational attainment is becoming an even bigger influence on future income and satisfaction than it was in the past, etc. And educational attainment is one of those things that accumulates slowly over time: kids in good middle schools do well in and are in good secondary schools, and these kids end up in best colleges, etc. While it's popular to talk about the dotcom millionaire who dropped out of Harvard (and so argue that graduating from college doesn't matter), or imagine that the elite colleges are filled with smart kids who rise above their mediocre middleschool and highschool educations, those are pretty clearly the exceptions that prove the rule.

I can tell you from personal experience: I was one of these exceptions -- a graduate from a mediocre and underfunded school system in rural Utah who attended MIT. But virtually all my classmates in college were from the the top private schools like Exeter or Andover; the top math/science public schools like Stuyvesant, Thomas Jefferson or Bronx Science; OR top public school districts more broadly. For example, I knew about Paly and Menlo-Atherton (and other elite school districts in Chicago, New York, etc.) long before I ever visited the bay area. ...these are the kids who overwhelmingly end up at the top colleges.

I'm not saying I condone it, but its a fact of life these days. I grew up poor, and don't blame my parents for that (in fact, I have them to thank for helping me thrive in spite of few resources), but as a parent with some greater capacity to affect my child's destiny, and knowing what I know, how could I not be looking for "the best" school district for my kids?

jpd says

Some Boston public schools really do stink (e.g., gangs, meth, fights…+ low test scores), which makes the drive to snooty Brookline or Newton school districts even more intense. Not sure how this works in the Bay Area…maybe the Fremont and San Jose schools are not much worse than Palo Alto and Menlo-Atherton.
....
it’s pretty natural to make education a top priority when house-hunting. It’s a sad but true fact that educational attainment is becoming an even bigger influence on future income and satisfaction than it was in the past, etc.

This is true probably very much like Boston. But there is a whole continuum of possibilities between Menlo-Atherton kinda places and somewhere that's dangerous and awful for your kids. Besides, academic is part of the education, a big part, an important part, maybe the most important part, but not the only part. It's just that there's so many families, particularly ones who moved here from somewhere else who are beholden to the API, and for them, it's top tier API or nothing.

Kinda ironic when you think of it. Professionals in tech and finance who use data at work all of the time but don't get it about some simple concept of API, mean, median, distribution.

You know, Jerry Yang the founder of Yahoo came from one of the East Side of San Jose public high schools; those public high schools have many alumnis in Stanford, UC's, ivories. It's just not the "typical" alums that get in.

Then there's like my friend's ABC sibling: consumed the wad on a residence in The Fortress because immigrant Tiger-mom wanted her kids to have that appellation. But alas, second generation ABC assimilated kid did not get accepted to a top-tier UC, nor an ivy. So, Tufts will have to do. Tufts with financial aid because, well, a couple of decades of housing consumption in The Fortress for access to Fortress K-12 exhausted the reserves, so to speak. At least in her own mind the Tigress can save her face in her social circle with a kid going to Tufts. Funny though, when ABC uncle told us about this at a dinner party, I think I was the only one Bay Arean who had even ever heard of Tufts.

sybrib says

At least in her own mind the Tigress can save her face in her social circle with a kid going to Tufts. Funny though, when ABC uncle told us about this at a dinner party, I think I was the only one Bay Arean who had even ever heard of Tufts.

Oh no, their kid had to go to Tufts! :) I wonder what they think about their return on investment now?

Of course, you're so right with everything you said. I agree with all of it. But still doesn't change the general trends. It just means that the Tigermom strategy has a huge social cost in that not every Tigerkid will get into Harvard, even with all the "advantages" of The Fortress.

and I agree, these top API schools aren't the only places to go...but this data is nonetheless very interesting:

http://api.cde.ca.gov/Acnt2011/2010Base_Co.aspx?cYear=&cSelect=43,SANTA,CLARA

This is what is interesting to me: From a purely strategic standpoint, there are potential arbitrage opportunities that exist in these rankings from the perspective of "maximizing returns" that most ABC parents probably haven't considered because they don't know how the college-admissions game is played.

Let me provide an example: I have a professor friend who had twins in their junior year at Gunn high school in Palo Alto which I see from that link has a 918 API (extremely high for a High School). the kids were smart and well educated given that they'd been in palo alto school district for 10+ years, but with the immense competition (remember: the kids in this school are professor and tech-millionaire kids) they were roughly in middle of their class with solid B+/A- averages. From prior years experience, Professor-dad and kids knew that graduates in the middle of their class at Gunn end up at a Tufts or UCLA-level type of school.

this family knows how the college admissions game is played: part of the evaluation process is relative to others from your school and state, and particularly where you graduate from. They know it is particularly competitive to get into a top school being from California, Mass, Illinois, New Jersey in particular. Colleges want to be diverse with students spread more evenly across all states.

so what does this family do? Professor-dad takes his sabbatical next year in Montana (which is beautiful by the way). Kids enroll in high school, which is "easy" for them, and become the "stars" of their school on paper, and end up getting into a bunch of ivy league schools, and matriculating at Princeton.

I have incredibly mixed feelings about this example. Hard to fault the individual actions of the parents: kids *did* get a superior education, and *did* get into top colleges that'll set them up for life....not to mention an enjoyable year as a family in beautiful Montana. Not sure the kids could have been at Princeton otherwise, although I guess we'll never know...

But what's the social cost of such a story? Elite family uses human and financial capital to ensure that their children remain in the elite. Not exactly "the American story," right?

Now, not every rich parent is saavy enough or daring enough to game the system this much. Frankly, many parents talk a good game about "doing everything for the kids" but when it comes down to it, many parents (even those in The Fortress) settle for "good enough" and aren't willing to take it the extra mile. For now, you don't hear too many stories like this, but as education becomes even more important (which it will)...I fear that you'll hear less and less of the classic "American story" of rags to riches as these arbitrage opportunities are identified and used by the elite.