patrick.net

justme,
I always say that our two parties are all cousins. The thing is that it will currently be very impractical without a great upheaval to change to another system. And come on, those other green/libertarians/etc/etc are just ideological entities that do not have support in societies that do have a multi-party system right now and they won't here even if it was multi-party. Besides the Republicans and Democrats alike have made their parties into de facto political monopolies, with Red Scares, Church Committees and the FBI hunting hippies and black panthers.
If we ever get more parties those should be split on geographical, racial, moral and economic lines like they are around the world.
Of course it is not all peachy even with coalitions as the government can effectively freeze if even one party brakes with the coalition. It is also hard to follow a particular national path to the future since everybody is pulling the rug in their direction and usually those coalitions need only a simple majority so even if 1-2% small party walks out the coalition is toast.
It is even easier for interests to control the legislative body since they only need to get 1-2% in their pocket to control the whole machine. This is why countries with such a system have rampart corruption and many times the majority is and can be held hostage by the minority.

Such a system will still not alleviate the corruption and management crisis going on in the executive branch nor the make up of the Supreme Court for the foreseeable future. And I think it is more their fault than congress for the current failures.

All in all, this is what it is, and unless a revolution comes around I doubt we can change much. I don't know of any society that just went one day and changed with a simple vote without any type of economic depression or some type of great struggle like war or famine driving this change. And I also know of no society where such a great divide in the populace is achieved by such a minor difference between the two ruling elites... well, maybe the Shia and the Shiite, and they are all cousins for real :)

Marty

Mhrist I salute your honesty and transparency.

I'm not your enemy, though I like an aggressive debate.

It just seems that the Boomer generation has a sort of...umm...shamelessness, nonchalance and insouciance when it comes to things like morality (i.e. using your girlfriend, smoking dope, being lazy, being fortunate enough to score a great pension by just showing up to work drunk or stoned only because they stumbled on the golden age of Silicon Valley corporate benefits).

It's my generation, and the one behind me that are getting bent over because of the greed and selfishness of the Boomers.

And many just don't care.

They whole attitude is, "I'm OK and your OK. Just don't judge me. Go smoke your pot, use your girlfriend, fudge on your mortgage ap," etc.
As long as it's a "victimless" crime, who cares, right?

There are so many moral imbecile Boomers, that you guys are almost endearing for your sheer dopiness and lack of ethics. If so many people weren't paying the price for the hippy-ass generation, I'd almost have a place in my heart for the Woodstock crowd.

Dude, you break my heart.

Mish has a great article in which he responds to Peter Schiff. Well worth the read.

2008 is hard to predict with some many potential black swans. The easy ones are:

1. Housing declines continue. My guestimate is that we will lose 8% next year. 2009 will be worse.
2. There will come a point at which the Fed will have to raise rates, but I am increasingly of the opinion that this will be delayed out beyond 2008.
3. Inflation, targeted to 3%, will be 5% sans energy. With food and energy we will get something like 7%.
4. The election will begin to focus more and more on Housing and Inflation. As people pointed out, we were talking about 3rd sex bathrooms until the budget dried up. Similarly, we will stop talking about Iraq with the 2008 recession.
5. The global economy will contract at the same rate as the us contraction. I would say world GDP shrinkage of 2% (seems small but this is a big deal).
6. The world will flood the US courts in an attempt to sue over lost billions in the MBS and CDO debacle. No rulings in 2008.
7. Municipalities WILL fail. No idea what we will do.
8. Califnornia will have its debt rating reduced. Somehow the Fed will agree to finance the state's debt.
9. Lay-offs will begin in earnest. Unemployment will be a topic on the news.
10. Crime will rise. It will be noted that the seriously eroded police to citizen ratio is not sufficient to bring crime under control. Debate will ensue.
11. A call for regulation will go out. The governemnt will do nothing bold until the next presidents is elected.

I can go on, but I really just see 2008 as a transition year. 2009 and beyond can get pretty dark if we don't address our domestic econoissues.

Are there any Ultra Short Retailer funds out there? It is too painful to go through every single retailer to determine the best target and then talk to the broker to borrow shares.

Mhrist,

You won't get a 1-2% party holding the country hostage if there is a 5% cutoff limit. This is the
"5% clause" of the German constitution. It is there to prevent extremists (like the Nazis) to get disproportionate power. This is how that is taken care of. I don't mind that parties with

Let's vote Mhrist for Boomer Of The Year

Winner gets to have his ass whomped by Surfer-X

"Many great and radical people did go to jail"

(So did a lot of unremarkable dirtbags) In fact, my guess is that there is nothing "great" in the future of about 99.9% of the prison population. (Unless of course you consider just managing to stay OUT of prison an accomplishment in and of it self?)

(continued) ... with less than 5% of the vote get no representation.

Mhrist,

Sure, the green party might never get that big. Instead what will happen is that the existing parties will split into smaller parties with purer ideologies. For example, democrats will split into Labor + Progressive parties, and the republicans will split into TrueConservatives + CorporateFascists+ReligiousNuts. It would make for an interesting mix.

>> Lay-offs will begin in earnest. Unemployment will be a topic on the news.

Bring it on!

2008 will be historic.

Here in the US, there will be a cultural revolution, on par with the 60's in the terms of lasting imprint and historic magnitude. There will be a substantial shift in the American mentality, as the historically apathetic post-boomer Generation attempts to grab the reins and steer the country in a new direction.

That said, the Republican ticket (whomever it is) will win the election.

Globally, WWIII (which has been going on for some time now) will finally be recognized by the MSM.

Housing prices will decline less than expected, partially due to rising rents making housing look more attractive than it really is, prompting the NAR to say that "things are turning around".

"Russia’s 21st century prospects are looking pretty good."

Dude, Russia is in the same deep shite, if not deeper: http://exile.ru/print.php?ARTICLE_ID=8510&IBLOCK_ID=35