patrick.net

Mish has a great article in which he responds to Peter Schiff. Well worth the read.

2008 is hard to predict with some many potential black swans. The easy ones are:

1. Housing declines continue. My guestimate is that we will lose 8% next year. 2009 will be worse.
2. There will come a point at which the Fed will have to raise rates, but I am increasingly of the opinion that this will be delayed out beyond 2008.
3. Inflation, targeted to 3%, will be 5% sans energy. With food and energy we will get something like 7%.
4. The election will begin to focus more and more on Housing and Inflation. As people pointed out, we were talking about 3rd sex bathrooms until the budget dried up. Similarly, we will stop talking about Iraq with the 2008 recession.
5. The global economy will contract at the same rate as the us contraction. I would say world GDP shrinkage of 2% (seems small but this is a big deal).
6. The world will flood the US courts in an attempt to sue over lost billions in the MBS and CDO debacle. No rulings in 2008.
7. Municipalities WILL fail. No idea what we will do.
8. Califnornia will have its debt rating reduced. Somehow the Fed will agree to finance the state's debt.
9. Lay-offs will begin in earnest. Unemployment will be a topic on the news.
10. Crime will rise. It will be noted that the seriously eroded police to citizen ratio is not sufficient to bring crime under control. Debate will ensue.
11. A call for regulation will go out. The governemnt will do nothing bold until the next presidents is elected.

I can go on, but I really just see 2008 as a transition year. 2009 and beyond can get pretty dark if we don't address our domestic econoissues.

Are there any Ultra Short Retailer funds out there? It is too painful to go through every single retailer to determine the best target and then talk to the broker to borrow shares.

Mhrist,

You won't get a 1-2% party holding the country hostage if there is a 5% cutoff limit. This is the
"5% clause" of the German constitution. It is there to prevent extremists (like the Nazis) to get disproportionate power. This is how that is taken care of. I don't mind that parties with

Let's vote Mhrist for Boomer Of The Year

Winner gets to have his ass whomped by Surfer-X

"Many great and radical people did go to jail"

(So did a lot of unremarkable dirtbags) In fact, my guess is that there is nothing "great" in the future of about 99.9% of the prison population. (Unless of course you consider just managing to stay OUT of prison an accomplishment in and of it self?)

(continued) ... with less than 5% of the vote get no representation.

Mhrist,

Sure, the green party might never get that big. Instead what will happen is that the existing parties will split into smaller parties with purer ideologies. For example, democrats will split into Labor + Progressive parties, and the republicans will split into TrueConservatives + CorporateFascists+ReligiousNuts. It would make for an interesting mix.

>> Lay-offs will begin in earnest. Unemployment will be a topic on the news.

Bring it on!

2008 will be historic.

Here in the US, there will be a cultural revolution, on par with the 60's in the terms of lasting imprint and historic magnitude. There will be a substantial shift in the American mentality, as the historically apathetic post-boomer Generation attempts to grab the reins and steer the country in a new direction.

That said, the Republican ticket (whomever it is) will win the election.

Globally, WWIII (which has been going on for some time now) will finally be recognized by the MSM.

Housing prices will decline less than expected, partially due to rising rents making housing look more attractive than it really is, prompting the NAR to say that "things are turning around".

"Russia’s 21st century prospects are looking pretty good."

Dude, Russia is in the same deep shite, if not deeper: http://exile.ru/print.php?ARTICLE_ID=8510&IBLOCK_ID=35