patrick.net

Nope

Like I said all is priced in and ultimately every dip is a buying opportunity.
We already crashed. Dont fight the last war ect,,

BTW it is a crash blog still :)

Those numbers are too boring for most of the people on here. They want some wild swing up or down, it doesn't matter which way, but it has to be wild or it just doesn't jib with what they're hearing on the news.

I am all for economic recovery....
i just want the housing prices in Bay Area to crash :-)

Well, I'll be first, Too bad it is stimulus driven, and why if we are in such a recovery and you think it is looking up, why do we need QE2? The consumer (used to be and oh yea still is, 70% of USA economy) is either older or getting older to point (the majority of course) that they will not spend any where NEAR what is needed to have it "better" the younger ones either have too much Student loan debt, and or can't find a JOB that pays enough (again by and large) they also don't want to have a big carbon foot print (ok small number but a start ) The older ones will be selling (I did already in 08) our homes, and or staying put (stuck) If we have a strong recovery it will not re-inflate the housing prices. It is a DIFFERENT global economy now, and prices are going to GO WAY up on Fuel, Food, and Health Care, just by those alone there will not be enough $$$ in household budgets to afford much of a mortgage / rent I say again when oil is 250 a bbl gas will 5.50-6.50 a gallon and those suburbs loose all the ONE time advantage they had, lower home prices due to distance from any possible Job.

We need to live a "smaller" use existence then we have come to know in USA, I think at this point anyway, we are not any where near better, and we won't be until many years from now, it is all part of the BIG CYCLE... If you want to invest in housing, invest in Brazil as mortgages become available there, you will see a huge move.

Warren Buffet lives in a completely different world than the 80% of people that make up middle class Americans. The super majority of the wealthiest 1% of Americans are wealthier today than they were in 2008 and 2009. I'm sure he and all his rich friends are thinking everything is just peachy. I'd feel pretty confident too if I had the Fed and all relevant politicians in my pocket!

Warren Buffet makes a living off understanding how the majority live. Reading numbers, and understanding underlying issues of the economy is what he does.

He probably has a better indication of how your life is going financially, than you do. If you told him your occupation, he could probably tell you what your chances of being laid off are or getting a raise this year. He isn't just speaking about how he is doing, he's speaking about how all of his businesses are doing and he has businesses in every market segment out there.

I think growth in the economy will be severely restricted by oil.
Do you have your natural gas powered Duckmobile ready?

All bets are off come 2012.
See expiration of the Mortgage Forgiveness Debt Relief Act at the end of 2012. Those who have been hanging on will abandon ship...

pkennedy says

Warren Buffet makes a living off understanding how the majority live. Reading numbers, and understanding underlying issues of the economy is what he does.
He probably has a better indication of how your life is going financially, than you do. If you told him your occupation, he could probably tell you what your chances of being laid off are or getting a raise this year. He isn’t just speaking about how he is doing, he’s speaking about how all of his businesses are doing and he has businesses in every market segment out there.

I would tend to disagree. Buying $5 Billion in preferred stock of Goldman Sachs shows me he has a wonderful intimate knowledge of our 'too big to fail' policies. Not the financial health of the average American.

there will be a double dip in housing prices in the bay area.

@Jeremy
Here is a list of some of the companies that he owns. I think he has a pretty good idea.

Acme Brick Company

International Dairy Queen, Inc.

Applied Underwriters

Iscar Metalworking Companies

Ben Bridge Jeweler

Johns Manville

Benjamin Moore & Co.

Jordan's Furniture

Berkshire Hathaway Group

Justin Brands

Berkshire Hathaway Homestate Companies

Larson-Juhl

BoatU.S.

Marmon Holdings, Inc.

Borsheims Fine Jewelry

McLane Company

Buffalo NEWS, Buffalo NY

Medical Protective

Burlington Northern Santa Fe Corp.

MidAmerican Energy Holdings Company

Business Wire

MiTek Inc.

Central States Indemnity Company

National Indemnity Company

Clayton Homes

Nebraska Furniture Mart

CORT Business Services

NetJets®

CTB Inc.

The Pampered Chef®

Fechheimer Brothers Company

Precision Steel Warehouse, Inc.

FlightSafety

RC Willey Home Furnishings

Forest River

Richline Group

Fruit of the Loom®

Scott Fetzer Companies

Garan Incorporated
Acme Brick Company

International Dairy Queen, Inc.

Applied Underwriters

Iscar Metalworking Companies

Ben Bridge Jeweler

Johns Manville

Benjamin Moore & Co.

Jordan's Furniture

Berkshire Hathaway Group

Justin Brands

Berkshire Hathaway Homestate Companies

Larson-Juhl

BoatU.S.

Marmon Holdings, Inc.

Borsheims Fine Jewelry

McLane Company

Buffalo NEWS, Buffalo NY

Medical Protective

Burlington Northern Santa Fe Corp.

MidAmerican Energy Holdings Company

Business Wire

MiTek Inc.

Central States Indemnity Company

National Indemnity Company

Clayton Homes

Nebraska Furniture Mart

CORT Business Services

NetJets®

CTB Inc.

The Pampered Chef®

Fechheimer Brothers Company

Precision Steel Warehouse, Inc.

FlightSafety

RC Willey Home Furnishings

Forest River

Richline Group

Fruit of the Loom®

Scott Fetzer Companies

Garan Incorporated

See's Candies

Gateway Underwriters Agency

Shaw Industries

GEICO Auto Insurance

Star Furniture

General Re

TTI, Inc.

Helzberg Diamonds

United States Liability Insurance Group

H.H. Brown Shoe Group

Wesco Financial Corporation

HomeServices of America, a subsidiary of
MidAmerican Energy Holdings Company

XTRA Corporation

See's Candies

Gateway Underwriters Agency

Shaw Industries

GEICO Auto Insurance

Star Furniture

General Re

TTI, Inc.

Helzberg Diamonds

United States Liability Insurance Group

H.H. Brown Shoe Group

Wesco Financial Corporation

HomeServices of America, a subsidiary of
MidAmerican Energy Holdings Company

XTRA Corporation

I don't know enough to say if he's right or not. I do notice that the restaraunts around the Inland Empire here are starting to fill up again. There are more people shopping than last year and I am starting to see help wanted or now hiring signs up in a few businesses (That aren't fast food). The only thing I don't see is traffic going to and from work. It used to be horrible around 2005. Could be improvements to the freeway since then or there aren't as many people working. Me, I'll say we'll be flat for the rest of the year.

wait for Lord Barry's October Suprize before you jump

the next drop will be a doozie

That's great. He's got very strong companies which he bought into while the were undervalued, and they are doing well, and even eating up market share of competitors. That's what he's good at.

I don't put much weight on his macroeconomic perception though. He's admitted on several occasions that he missed the housing bubble. I remember him buying a furniture store and a pre-fab home company to try to cash in on the boom.

http://blogs.wsj.com/developments/2010/06/03/real-estate-news-rent-vs-buy-buffett-admits-he-missed-housing-bubble/

EBGuy says

I think growth in the economy will be severely restricted by oil.

Do you have your natural gas powered Duckmobile ready?
All bets are off come 2012.

See expiration of the Mortgage Forgiveness Debt Relief Act at the end of 2012. Those who have been hanging on will abandon ship…

LET HOUSING CRASH the rest of the way (40-50%)

pkennedy says

@Jeremy
Here is a list of some of the companies that he owns. I think he has a pretty good idea.

Thats the beauty of Buffets investments... simplicity... you just cant get better that that.

The prefab company he purchased for a reason, it was in his book. Less about cashing in on the housing crazy and more to do with the fact that they required mortgages which he could provide the backing for, so it fit into his business model. The furniture store I believe was from very early on. In the 90's? It was well before the prefab house, it had to do with the markups the woman who owned it managed to get.

I sort of doubt he missed the housing bubble, he might have said he missed it, but I'm betting he factored it in. Most of us could see housing was out of line, he damn well knew about it by 2005 or 2006.

@Cvoc13
I expect the government to take action if it becomes a problem. If they see enough homes in a situation where this might cause a flip, they'll do something. Otherwise they'll let it expire. Or they might modify it, cutting it off at the 250K income level. If it starts to cause a major problem, it will be dealt with. It should be obvious by now that the government is not going to let housing momentum build up in a negative way.

Very strong list of companies in the portfolio.

However, Buffet as well as the other Wall Street types are still in denial about the fact that American wages are probably dropping. I know him and his companies do a lot of business with the government and there is no doubt that aspect is booming.

Buffet is not the average American and no one can predict what is coming next.

Actually, I don't think there are any companies in there that have large government contracts.

Most are general public companies, some are luxury companies.

Many are insurance companies, but the government does self insurance, so he isn't selling to them either.

Buffet lives in Ohama, not Wall Street, or anywhere near it.

It's always a great time economically if you have billions of dollars in your bank account.

Coming from a guy who netted hundreds of millions probably from the bailout ....................

Any of you guys ever heard of FOBAPROA?

The reason of no double dip, is because we never have not got out of the first one, From Mr. Buffet's own lips.

Not sure if this has been commented on:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-09-20/berkshire-s-munger-says-cash-strapped-should-suck-it-in-not-get-bailout.html

The arrogance there is just amazing. His ass was bailed out and we should all be thankful for that? Whatever.

And to my knowledge Buffet hasn't condemned Munger's statements. Buffet used to be a respectable investor. Now he's just another Wall Street shark talking his book like all the rest of them. Good riddance. I wouldn't trust Buffet to tell me the sky was blue.

Hmmm, latest items has me debating dumping my Berkshire shares. They are publicly shooting themselves in the foot now. I expect I've gotten all the ride I'm going to out of their Bailout Bounce anyhow....