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China housing bubble.


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2010 Jul 23, 5:08am   3,534 views  4 comments

by michaelsch   ➕follow (0)   💰tip   ignore  

The web is full with articles of it.

Just a couple of examples:

http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/china-has-a-painful-surprise-for-the-global-economy-39691

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/JubaksJournal/bubble-bubble-chinas-trouble.aspx

However, nobody understand what will happen when this bubble pops.

Will it affect stock markets?

Will it be inflationary or deflationary for global economy? It's clear, Chinese government will use its reserves to stimulate its economy and probably to stimulate low end housing there. On the one hand it will dump hundreds of $B to financial markets - looks like inflationary. However, they keep their reserves in bonds. Selling bonds depresses their value, which means much higher interest rates - deflationary.

As we can see, $.5T can't create inflation. But selling bonds for $.5T may crash the bond market.

Any thoughts about what will happen there? Or any good links on the matter?

#housing

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1   elkodruthers   2010 Jul 24, 5:20am  

The housing market in China is subsidized by a wealthy central bank that plays a major role in all sectors of the economy. The Chinese approach life differently, so to expect boom-bust from them is discounting the role of their gov't and assuming that they approach economics the way we do.

2   Done!   2010 Jul 24, 7:03am  

Is there a "Bubble" or a "Boom"? There's a huge difference.
China developed old world villages and brought the inhabitants of those villages into the modernization plans. It's not like Eminent domain here in the States where developers and a City want your land to make New high posh high rises that you could never afford.
These people ways of lives are being altered and brought into modernization, and are given a better opportunity to live in these nice developed homes. These aren't housing projects, they are modern structures. There's real growth and progress happening here, not flipping existing old dwellings through allowing loans on houses for amounts that should have never been assessed at.

China is self proficient, We pretend they are 100% dependent on exports to the US. and that just isn't true. The whole Asian continent has been taught to be both consumers and democratic workers. They can create their own GDP just as easily as we can, and are beating us at it. We quit manufacturing, China is proving once again, Production/Consumer societies are what "real" growth is.

Meanwhile we clunk along in our Credit is income based GDP society.

It's like that old saying...

"I can't be broke, I still have checks."

3   justme   2010 Jul 25, 4:04pm  

elkodruthers says

The housing market in China is subsidized by a wealthy central bank that plays a major role in all sectors of the economy. The Chinese approach life differently, so to expect boom-bust from them is discounting the role of their gov’t and assuming that they approach economics the way we do.

I think it is naive to think that one should not expect boom-bust cycles in China, with the above rationale, including the one that "The Chinese approach life differently,"

China is very much part of of the global economy, and it cannot function by having an entirely different set of rules and boundary conditions than everyone else, government-imposed or not.

4   justme   2010 Jul 25, 4:12pm  

E-man says
Well said. Certain countries don’t live on credit and don’t do fractional reserve banking like us here. Therefore, their boom-bust cycles would likely be very different than the US.

Whaaat? China does not have fractional reserve banking? Of course they do:

http://www.centralbanksguide.com/peoples+bank+of+china/

And about the statement that China or its people do not live on credit, have you seen this article:

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/07/ponzi-shark-loans-fuel-chinas-housing.html

It may be that China's boom/bust cycles will be "different" in some way, but not for the reasons that you stated.
China may even become the mother of all housing busts, in GDP terms.

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