patrick.net

SFWoman,

Agreed, it likely will break down to a "division of labor". I was just providing "bookends" for the time frame noted in the article SP was referencing. What it boils down to is that anyone can GIVE something away! From 2001 to 2005 they were "giving away" tax free money.

So if I'm getting 150-425k what do I care if you get your take? Now that things are "reverting to the mean" (TM) (Sir Randal Esq.*) those that bought in 2005 and shortly 2004 will not be able to swing 6% without triggering a short sale.

SFWoman said:
Six percent for opening a front door is obscene, however. Perhaps the industry will split into ‘door openers’ and full service Realtors, with commissions appropriate to each.

I would support such a split. The 'door openers' can work at places like Walmart. Maybe they can try to get a six percent commission for hanging around people while they shop.

"The first two years were awesome. My first year I was top door opener and sold a lot of merchandise."

SP

SFWoman,

Good Lord that is funny! What a doofus. I've often been told that the whole Open House scene is more about the realtors promoting themselves and their listings than "your" open house! I've just never heard of a case that was that blatant!

I also treasure stories that are pre/post bubble. They provide a much needed reference point outside of the "really awesome years".

SP,

In the words of Sir Surfer X, "can we cuddle"?

There was a time when professional sales people acted accordingly and were treated accordingly! Most consumers could make the distinction between a "sales clerk" and a salesman. With behavior like SFWoman describes is it any wonder the lines have become blurred?

I love it when I hear housing bulls in their forum make statements like this.

Subcranium:

The question is do we have a big drop, or do we have years and years of flatline while inflation keeps on trucking? I have no idea. Opinions?

Gekko:

My guess is that the top was June 2005. I think we will have cumulative price declines totaling 20-50% (depending on location and type of home) over 3-5 years followed by 2-3 years of price stagnation followed by a return to normal long-term historical nominal appreciation of 3.5%.

Another entertaining story.

Allah,

What's so damn funny about SDCIA is that it's obvious they have no grasp of what is about to blind side them. In my estimations, they apparently didn't understand the market dynamics at play on the upside either. They're just clutching for straws and desperately seeking out anything that supports their bullish positions.

Gekko isn't really a capitulated bull, as far as I know he posts over at Ben's and has never made a bullish comment. He's just messin' wid 'em. What's a bored bear to do?

Hey, we could show up at a Home Depot or Lowe's on Saturday morning (hangover the size of Texas) and mess w/the FB's frantically attempting to fix up their place to beat the lender to foreclosure! Imagine explaining to the FB that you're really not an undocumented alien you're doing an article on the desperate state of FB's, flippers and contractors and then get their reactions on video!

Allah,

Gotta love a guy whose mantra is, "There's got to be a way" (contending w/neg. cash flow).

Fanciful and clueless come to mind. The only positive I can see coming out of this is that so many of the rickety business plans out there will continue to evaporate and clear the way for legitimate players. If I had a nickel for every guy I ran into that was funding his start up with "home equity" "I'D" be retired!

@DinOR and allah,

I enjoyed reading Robert Campbell slowly and meticulously pick apart these guys over at SDCIA. For serious bull territory, have either of you been over at the WSJ real estate blog?

http://discussions.realestatejournal.com/RealEstateJournal%20Discussions/1

Hey, it looks like we (Gen-X) will be saving the day in Real Estate for the Boomers!

http://www.realestatejournal.com/buysell/markettrends/20061107-gerencher.html

"Generation X May Boost Sagging Real-Estate Market"

What a load of crap! Gen-X'ers are a much smaller demographic, and we don't want the McMansions the Boomers are trying to unload on us. (At least I don't).

@ DinOR

I don't like arguing with you, but I have to point out you not being accurate about Ben Griffin - he was in the Army for 8 years, and 2 of which he was in the SAS the British equivalent of the Seals. Not just anybody gets into the SAS and they are considered some of the most highly trained troops in the world. This article was also published by The Telegraph a well respected newspaper that is unlikely to get it's facts wrong.

Claire,

I stand corrected. But it doesn't change the fact that he wanted out. I DID get the 3 months "in country" part right? That's what counts. So many of the U.S Infantry guys are on their SECOND tour! I would tend to give their telling of the story more credibility. As for the "trigger happy" accusation I can't say, I wasn't there. These special forces guys view everything as a "get in, get out" type of operation. Grunts go in and die like flies. It's their job. What we have now (believe it or not) is a "mop up" exercise. This is why Rummy was no longer needed. In truth he hasn't been necessary for some time.

I hate "sea lawyers" (guys in uniform that think they know the law). Unlike the SEALS, grunts slug it out and trade casualties. I don't mean to be casual about it but that's the business they're in. That's how they work. Maybe the UK could just send some guys that can follow orders. Sorry.

I will go on record as a centrist, pragmatic Democrat of the DLC variety (though I don't agree with all their views). I am happy about the results because I think the Republicans went too far to the right and overstepped their mandate (if they had one).

With respect to housing, I think the bubble has had the interesting effect of pushing a lot of younger, poorer (thus more liberal) voters into red state "flyover" territory. I don't know if this is demographically significant, but it is interesting to note certain red states taking on a more purplish hue (AZ, NM, MO and VA come to mind). If the trend continues, it could be good news for Dems over the next few election cycles, in my opinion.

skibum,

If it's the guy I'm thinking of I have spoke w/him on the phone (cold call prospecting). The guy had a substantial RE portfolio and sold the last of it out in 2003. Again assuming it's the same guy he's well qualified to speak to the topic.

I like that the woman with the 13 ‘investment’ condos that are costing her over $500 a month each to keep is from the Rich Dad forum. Maybe he should change his name to ‘Indebted Dad’ or ‘Jumped in too late Dad’. I have never read his books, is this what he told people to do?

I think alot of RE failures are going to his forum since "Rich Dad" took interest in Casey Serin. They feel they are going to get some good advise or ideas from other FB's.

To Robert Kiyosaki's credit...
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2006/04/02/REG1NI0UVO1.DTL&hw=carol+lloyd+rich+dad&sn=003&sc=939
Even the beginners I spoke to emphasized that they had come because they realized they needed to educate themselves somehow. Nearly all of them quoted Kiyosaki, founder of the "Rich Dad/Poor Dad" publishing empire, the most balanced of the real estate gods, someone who has gone on record recommending people invest in oil and gold over real estate right now.

"I think people are concerned about the state of the economy, about Social Security," he said. "They don't trust the stock market. They're looking for answers. They're trying to educate themselves."
So are these guys still flogging RE seminars during this "buying opportunity"? (think I just answered my question there.)

"There's a lot of pain going on in the investment community"

(from skibum's article)

Ah-hem, could you d e s c r i b e this "pain" to me?

Well Doc around the 30th. of every month I have to literally sh@t $500 X 13 so it's like a $6,500 a month pain in the.......

"They don't trust the stock market"

This really has created a windfall for guys like "I used to be Rich Dad" hasn't it? They've totally played on these poor folks darkest fears and turned it into an industry! He's rec. oil + gas? I don't get it. I can only describe his following as "seminar junkies" that are convinved the next audio CD they buy will be "the key" they've been looking for?

SFWoman,

I'm sure FAB could elaborate on this greatly but if a novice investor is throwing around figures like "$500" you've just got to believe that they have no concept of what they are doing! No mention of ROI or anything resembling financial savvy. Rich Dad sold these people into a corner and now he's going to sell them a book/tape/cd that's going to get them out?

It's just so obvious they hadn't planned for this contingency b/c their design was to have already pocketed "big fat stacks"!

SFW,

Are you the same person as SFWoman? It's a bit confusing.

SFW,

4 years to have molesting realtor's lic. revoked? You're kidding right? Notice how he became "aggressive" and verbally abusive when called out. Talk about a "taker". This guy has nothing to contribute to society whatsoever!

I just love socketsite's understated delivery. It's almost as if "we're trying to keep our composure here" (or refrain from laughing). Always classy!

Bap33,

I've always maintained that when all else in life fails, there's always real estate! To my knowledge they come from all walks of life including (as we now have learned) child molester.

@SFWoman,

That child molester/Realtor (TM) story is creepy. It does make you realize you have no idea who has access to your lockbox when you try to sell a home. Thank goodness the NAR has such high standards for who can become a Realtor!

As a side note, that article reads like it was written by a ninth grader: too many grammatical and spelling errors to even count:

“Oh you drunks, you drug attics [sic] North Highland low lifes. Just verbal attacks,” said Reece.

I also enjoyed the contradiction of:

"As a realtor, our relationship with clients is built on trust.Over concern for her family's safety we're concealing the identity of this real estate agent," said unidentified agent.

followed by:

The agent, Richard Whitney, convicted of lewd or lascivious acts with a child.

@Bap33,

You insult the profession of used car salesmen.

New thread:

Unrealistic Seller MLS De-Listings

I’ve always maintained that when all else in life fails, there’s always real estate! To my knowledge they come from all walks of life including (as we now have learned) child molester.

Or, how about failed junior analysts?

skibum,

The whole episode was creepy! Yick.

This is a difficult concept for me to articulate so kind of stay with me ok?

Whatever happened to the brand of American that said; "This neighborhood is "cool" because WE live here"? This bar is a cool bar to hang out in b/c "I" hang out here! This is OUR park and we don't appreciate your littering, drinking drug use here! What happened to those guys? Now it seems everybody just want to "purchase" a toney address and let their debt load determine what does or doesn't happen in their neighborhood.

That must be what it is? It's just easier to "trade up" than contend w/ issues that aren't to our liking. Nobody stands their ground any more and says; "Hey! the garbage man came by on Tuesday!" (Meaning we don't want to look at your empty g-can blowing around until it's convenient for you to get around to it). Now we have CC & R's and HOA's. What a waste.

@DinOR,

You touch on a much larger subject. For better or worse, America continues to be a very mobile society, and some might argue it's getting more so as we speak. This is accentuated on the West Coast, I believe as there is less historical "tradition" and what not. If you spend some time in New England, you'll find these dyed-in-the-wool old families living there since who knows when.

skibum,

You mentioned your (and your generation's) disinterest in McMansions. I should think developers, architects, general contractors would be interested to know what you and your peers want in the way of living arrangements.

Certainly I am curious.

I like this:

http://www.mkd-arc.com/whatwedo/breezehouse/index.cfm

But I don't know if this aesthetic is very mainstream.

skibum,

That aesthetic is certainly very popular on this blog. I like shipping contain conversions myself, they're probably quite safe during an earthquake and no termite issues.

I don’t want in any way to steer the conversation back towards politics but it’s important for me to challenge DS’s article about the British deserter (b/c that’s what he is) Ben Griffin.

Ben is a “boot camp” ok? He’d been in Her Majesty’s Army for every bit of two years. He’d been “in country” for all of 3 months! So accounting for “in-processing”, immunizations, outfitting and indoctrination this kids seen what? A week at the front?

Not to thrash this, but it's very clear from the article and the post that Ben Griffin is a member of the most elite arm of the British Army, and has done 8 years sevice. The SAS is roughly equivalent to the Seals. I know some Australian SAS, and they are always going at 150% -- able to survive anywhere, etc. They are selected as the creme de la creme of fitness and aptitude, and are invested in very heavily. The Australian SAS is the only regiment to serve in combat Iraq at present.

I have a lot more comments to make about ethics, morality, blindly 'obeying orders' and the trigger-happy reports that I pasted into the Iraq thread on patrick.net quite some time ago, where the British commanders in Iraq (6% of presence) were very alarmed at the trigger-happy nature of US troops (92%), who were killing many innocent families and individuals over time, e.g. just shooting individuals in cars, shooting people walking after curfew, air strikes wiping out family homes, and so on. One Iraqi royal family who were actually friendly to the US were wiped out in one particular 'mistaken' airstrike. You are making enemies for life and sowing the seeds of even more terrorism, where it didn't even exist before. The last thing you do is piss off a Middle Easterner. Winning hearts and minds in the interests of democracy, not the bidding of an administration top-heavy with oil executives and neocons and similar vested interests. I see how it works...

I would point out that the British fared a lot better in the south of Iraq as an occupying force than the US troops in the north regarding 'insurgency' attacks, due to at least pretending to be interested in their welfare, and being a more decent professional bunch overall, unlike the US army comprised mostly of mercenearies and virtual conscripts drawn from an impoverished working class and underclass from smalltown America.

@SP,

Indeed, if you walk around the town graveyards in some of the older towns in VT, NH, Mass, etc., there are piles and piles of gravestones with the same surname with dates from the 18th century to the present.

Charleston families tend to stay for generations as well. A member of one of them told me, "It's not as if we don't travel, but this is home."

As a side note, that article reads like it was written by a ninth grader: too many grammatical and spelling errors to even count

There are a lot of grocer's apostrophes, missing quote marks and commas, and even missing words. maybe it's the new approximate 'phonetic spelling' they are teaching. what next, people will stop capitalising properly before long...

It's 2 years till the next federal election.

That's 2 years that they'll ratchet up the misery index to make us think that we will want the Republicans to return to power.

I noticed that the day after the election ended, the Rotten Robbie by my house increased 87 octane back from $2.34 to $2.39, and then today it was increased again to $2.49. On election eve Monday, it was $2.29.

Fed policy, gasoline prices, etc., to increase the Misery Index for the next two years portend two more years of bad news in the housing market.

skibum,

I took an in-depth look of MK designs before, I have to say that aesthetics aside, you don't get much cost savings, if any, from such a prefab. Her materials sound "environmental" but in reality, they are just inexpensive, slate counter top (not that I care for granite), bamboo floor, IKEAish cabinets... Nothing wrong with that, I am all for being environmental, as long as the price tag is friendly enough to my pocket as well. MK uses this Canadian prefab factory called Maple homes, you can go take a look of their website, and since they have a higher volume with their traditional styles, the quotes are more reasonable than prefab modern homes like MK's design.

Currently her design for such a house on a flat piece of land is around 210/sf, but if you have a challenging topography, then the cost escalates pretty fast. I was told that for a house of 1700 sft with a bit upgrade, you are pretty much looking at $450K in the Bay Area, land and permit aside. I believe that you can get a custom built home for around $200/sf nowadays if you are not going nuts with upgrade. That's why I question her price point for a non-custom, prefab home.

However, she definitely represents a healthy force to make modern homes more affordable to the mass. I guess she will need a few more early adopters to bring the price down to meet the mass.

OO,
Do you recommend any other prefab modernist architects?

Different Sean, here is where I agree with you. Your assessment of our troops are consistent with our behavior in WW1,2, Korea, Viet Nam. In WW2 in particular we had untrained, unprofessional troops (ie cooks in the frontlines), summary executions, prisoner executions, highest awol rate of all major armies, highest rate of STD's, mass rapings, targeting civilian populations with atomic and incendiary bombs, pillaging of villagers food and valuables. Yet not a single death sentence carried out post WW2. Why would our behavior be different in Iraq?