patrick.net

SP? Ski pants, Walmart? Huh?

As the warranty on mine nearing expiration, I am a little uneasy as to whether I should purchase an extended warranty or not. Such a worry is never possible with a reputable Japanese car.

Honestly I would only lease European cars. If I already own one, I would buy extended warranty if the price is reasonable.

But you know the one that was slowly dying on me was a ‘91 Camry.

There is an optimal point that you need to find.

I once have a Volvo that needed $2000 repairs. Now I consider the total cost of ownership when I buy a car.

GC said:
But as a suitable wife is not showing up on the horizon

Must be their gaydar.

SP

surfer-x Says:
SP? Ski pants, Walmart? Huh?

Inspired by the GC-Skibum exchange earlier.

SP

From the San Francisco Chronic(le):
“Toll Bros. Inc., the luxury home builder with projects in San Ramon, Dublin and Sunnyvale, said Tuesday that it will report a 10 percent drop in quarterly home-building revenue in another sign of a weakening housing market.”

“Citing a higher-than-usual rate of home sale cancellations in Northern California, the company said the number of contracts it signed throughout the country fell 55 percent in its fiscal fourth quarter, which ended Oct. 31. Northern California accounted for 11 percent of the canceled sales nationwide.”

“The company said it expects the softness to continue in Northern California and other former hot spots in the country.”

Another soundbite from Toll Brothers:

“Toll Brothers chief executive said the economic trends are leading customers, even those in the high income bracket that his company serves, to take a wait-and-see approach. ‘Nobody wants to buy something that they think will cost less two weeks or two months later,’ said Toll Brothers CEO Robert Toll.”

Which, of course, is why the Realtwhore cartel is desperately trying to hide this fact from potential buyers.

SP

GC asked for a pill to reverse aging.

Cynthia Kenyon is working on your pill but it isn't ready yet. She and her colleagues have teased c.elegans SIR-2 and tweaked down-chain genetic code to produce a vastly-extended young adulthood.

A Boolean search on her name will give you a wide selection of reading material. If SFWoman is interested, PubMed has a few abstracts and plenty of the scholarly stuff...

Ooooh. Italics overdose, anyone? It's bedtime.

She and her colleagues have teased c.elegans SIR-2 and tweaked down-chain genetic code to produce a vastly-extended young adulthood.

in nematodes, yes...

Seriously, if the actions of politicians don't destroy us all first, I think we'll see some amazing breakthroughs in medical science in the coming century — side-effect free antivirals and super-antibiotics, defeat of diseases like cancer or heart disease, extension of the lifespan, manipulation of the human genome, and so on... What would we do if we could have a young adulthood for 100 years? Think how many more careers we could have, how many more mistakes we could make and recover from — Casey could recover from his first 6 foreclosures in the next decade of his life unscathed... We could be both young and wise, and youth would no longer be wasted on the young...

CG,

Don't feel so bad. There'll soon be tons of failed realt-whores looking for a meal ticket, surely some of them will meet your specifications.

SP,

Great observation. The homes she "sold" in those first two "awesome" years sold in spite of her! In many cases these realtors just happened to the one that answered the phone first. It really was that easy.

It speaks volumes about the strength of the REIC Cartel (TM). Any other industry would have experienced extreme pressure to lower transaction costs. Not the REIC! I suppose due to the fact that most of the money in res. RE is borrowed their pricing pressure will come on the down leg.

FB's and negative equity owners won't have a lot of room to be generous. Certainly not the kind to allow for a 6% commission.

I don't want in any way to steer the conversation back towards politics but it's important for me to challenge DS's article about the British deserter (b/c that's what he is) Ben Griffin.

Ben is a "boot camp" ok? He'd been in Her Majesty's Army for every bit of two years. He'd been "in country" for all of 3 months! So accounting for "in-processing", immunizations, outfitting and indoctrination this kids seen what? A week at the front?

Now DS wants us to take the word of some guy that just wants to go home to his pregnant girlfriend and is altogether too willing to say whatever it takes to make that a reality? Ricky Recruit just wants to go back to the pub and his mates. This doesn't make him a bad person, just not a very credible one. Make sure to throw the term "illegal war" around liberally. Commanding Officers love that.

SFWoman,

Agreed, it likely will break down to a "division of labor". I was just providing "bookends" for the time frame noted in the article SP was referencing. What it boils down to is that anyone can GIVE something away! From 2001 to 2005 they were "giving away" tax free money.

So if I'm getting 150-425k what do I care if you get your take? Now that things are "reverting to the mean" (TM) (Sir Randal Esq.*) those that bought in 2005 and shortly 2004 will not be able to swing 6% without triggering a short sale.

SFWoman said:
Six percent for opening a front door is obscene, however. Perhaps the industry will split into ‘door openers’ and full service Realtors, with commissions appropriate to each.

I would support such a split. The 'door openers' can work at places like Walmart. Maybe they can try to get a six percent commission for hanging around people while they shop.

"The first two years were awesome. My first year I was top door opener and sold a lot of merchandise."

SP

SFWoman,

Good Lord that is funny! What a doofus. I've often been told that the whole Open House scene is more about the realtors promoting themselves and their listings than "your" open house! I've just never heard of a case that was that blatant!

I also treasure stories that are pre/post bubble. They provide a much needed reference point outside of the "really awesome years".

SP,

In the words of Sir Surfer X, "can we cuddle"?

There was a time when professional sales people acted accordingly and were treated accordingly! Most consumers could make the distinction between a "sales clerk" and a salesman. With behavior like SFWoman describes is it any wonder the lines have become blurred?

I love it when I hear housing bulls in their forum make statements like this.

Subcranium:

The question is do we have a big drop, or do we have years and years of flatline while inflation keeps on trucking? I have no idea. Opinions?

Gekko:

My guess is that the top was June 2005. I think we will have cumulative price declines totaling 20-50% (depending on location and type of home) over 3-5 years followed by 2-3 years of price stagnation followed by a return to normal long-term historical nominal appreciation of 3.5%.

Another entertaining story.

Allah,

What's so damn funny about SDCIA is that it's obvious they have no grasp of what is about to blind side them. In my estimations, they apparently didn't understand the market dynamics at play on the upside either. They're just clutching for straws and desperately seeking out anything that supports their bullish positions.

Gekko isn't really a capitulated bull, as far as I know he posts over at Ben's and has never made a bullish comment. He's just messin' wid 'em. What's a bored bear to do?

Hey, we could show up at a Home Depot or Lowe's on Saturday morning (hangover the size of Texas) and mess w/the FB's frantically attempting to fix up their place to beat the lender to foreclosure! Imagine explaining to the FB that you're really not an undocumented alien you're doing an article on the desperate state of FB's, flippers and contractors and then get their reactions on video!

Allah,

Gotta love a guy whose mantra is, "There's got to be a way" (contending w/neg. cash flow).

Fanciful and clueless come to mind. The only positive I can see coming out of this is that so many of the rickety business plans out there will continue to evaporate and clear the way for legitimate players. If I had a nickel for every guy I ran into that was funding his start up with "home equity" "I'D" be retired!

@DinOR and allah,

I enjoyed reading Robert Campbell slowly and meticulously pick apart these guys over at SDCIA. For serious bull territory, have either of you been over at the WSJ real estate blog?

http://discussions.realestatejournal.com/RealEstateJournal%20Discussions/1

Hey, it looks like we (Gen-X) will be saving the day in Real Estate for the Boomers!

http://www.realestatejournal.com/buysell/markettrends/20061107-gerencher.html

"Generation X May Boost Sagging Real-Estate Market"

What a load of crap! Gen-X'ers are a much smaller demographic, and we don't want the McMansions the Boomers are trying to unload on us. (At least I don't).

@ DinOR

I don't like arguing with you, but I have to point out you not being accurate about Ben Griffin - he was in the Army for 8 years, and 2 of which he was in the SAS the British equivalent of the Seals. Not just anybody gets into the SAS and they are considered some of the most highly trained troops in the world. This article was also published by The Telegraph a well respected newspaper that is unlikely to get it's facts wrong.

Claire,

I stand corrected. But it doesn't change the fact that he wanted out. I DID get the 3 months "in country" part right? That's what counts. So many of the U.S Infantry guys are on their SECOND tour! I would tend to give their telling of the story more credibility. As for the "trigger happy" accusation I can't say, I wasn't there. These special forces guys view everything as a "get in, get out" type of operation. Grunts go in and die like flies. It's their job. What we have now (believe it or not) is a "mop up" exercise. This is why Rummy was no longer needed. In truth he hasn't been necessary for some time.

I hate "sea lawyers" (guys in uniform that think they know the law). Unlike the SEALS, grunts slug it out and trade casualties. I don't mean to be casual about it but that's the business they're in. That's how they work. Maybe the UK could just send some guys that can follow orders. Sorry.

I will go on record as a centrist, pragmatic Democrat of the DLC variety (though I don't agree with all their views). I am happy about the results because I think the Republicans went too far to the right and overstepped their mandate (if they had one).

With respect to housing, I think the bubble has had the interesting effect of pushing a lot of younger, poorer (thus more liberal) voters into red state "flyover" territory. I don't know if this is demographically significant, but it is interesting to note certain red states taking on a more purplish hue (AZ, NM, MO and VA come to mind). If the trend continues, it could be good news for Dems over the next few election cycles, in my opinion.

skibum,

If it's the guy I'm thinking of I have spoke w/him on the phone (cold call prospecting). The guy had a substantial RE portfolio and sold the last of it out in 2003. Again assuming it's the same guy he's well qualified to speak to the topic.

I like that the woman with the 13 ‘investment’ condos that are costing her over $500 a month each to keep is from the Rich Dad forum. Maybe he should change his name to ‘Indebted Dad’ or ‘Jumped in too late Dad’. I have never read his books, is this what he told people to do?

I think alot of RE failures are going to his forum since "Rich Dad" took interest in Casey Serin. They feel they are going to get some good advise or ideas from other FB's.

To Robert Kiyosaki's credit...
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2006/04/02/REG1NI0UVO1.DTL&hw=carol+lloyd+rich+dad&sn=003&sc=939
Even the beginners I spoke to emphasized that they had come because they realized they needed to educate themselves somehow. Nearly all of them quoted Kiyosaki, founder of the "Rich Dad/Poor Dad" publishing empire, the most balanced of the real estate gods, someone who has gone on record recommending people invest in oil and gold over real estate right now.

"I think people are concerned about the state of the economy, about Social Security," he said. "They don't trust the stock market. They're looking for answers. They're trying to educate themselves."
So are these guys still flogging RE seminars during this "buying opportunity"? (think I just answered my question there.)

"There's a lot of pain going on in the investment community"

(from skibum's article)

Ah-hem, could you d e s c r i b e this "pain" to me?

Well Doc around the 30th. of every month I have to literally sh@t $500 X 13 so it's like a $6,500 a month pain in the.......

"They don't trust the stock market"

This really has created a windfall for guys like "I used to be Rich Dad" hasn't it? They've totally played on these poor folks darkest fears and turned it into an industry! He's rec. oil + gas? I don't get it. I can only describe his following as "seminar junkies" that are convinved the next audio CD they buy will be "the key" they've been looking for?

SFWoman,

I'm sure FAB could elaborate on this greatly but if a novice investor is throwing around figures like "$500" you've just got to believe that they have no concept of what they are doing! No mention of ROI or anything resembling financial savvy. Rich Dad sold these people into a corner and now he's going to sell them a book/tape/cd that's going to get them out?

It's just so obvious they hadn't planned for this contingency b/c their design was to have already pocketed "big fat stacks"!

SFW,

Are you the same person as SFWoman? It's a bit confusing.

SFW,

4 years to have molesting realtor's lic. revoked? You're kidding right? Notice how he became "aggressive" and verbally abusive when called out. Talk about a "taker". This guy has nothing to contribute to society whatsoever!

I just love socketsite's understated delivery. It's almost as if "we're trying to keep our composure here" (or refrain from laughing). Always classy!

Bap33,

I've always maintained that when all else in life fails, there's always real estate! To my knowledge they come from all walks of life including (as we now have learned) child molester.

@SFWoman,

That child molester/Realtor (TM) story is creepy. It does make you realize you have no idea who has access to your lockbox when you try to sell a home. Thank goodness the NAR has such high standards for who can become a Realtor!

As a side note, that article reads like it was written by a ninth grader: too many grammatical and spelling errors to even count:

“Oh you drunks, you drug attics [sic] North Highland low lifes. Just verbal attacks,” said Reece.

I also enjoyed the contradiction of:

"As a realtor, our relationship with clients is built on trust.Over concern for her family's safety we're concealing the identity of this real estate agent," said unidentified agent.

followed by:

The agent, Richard Whitney, convicted of lewd or lascivious acts with a child.

@Bap33,

You insult the profession of used car salesmen.

New thread:

Unrealistic Seller MLS De-Listings

I’ve always maintained that when all else in life fails, there’s always real estate! To my knowledge they come from all walks of life including (as we now have learned) child molester.

Or, how about failed junior analysts?

skibum,

The whole episode was creepy! Yick.

This is a difficult concept for me to articulate so kind of stay with me ok?

Whatever happened to the brand of American that said; "This neighborhood is "cool" because WE live here"? This bar is a cool bar to hang out in b/c "I" hang out here! This is OUR park and we don't appreciate your littering, drinking drug use here! What happened to those guys? Now it seems everybody just want to "purchase" a toney address and let their debt load determine what does or doesn't happen in their neighborhood.

That must be what it is? It's just easier to "trade up" than contend w/ issues that aren't to our liking. Nobody stands their ground any more and says; "Hey! the garbage man came by on Tuesday!" (Meaning we don't want to look at your empty g-can blowing around until it's convenient for you to get around to it). Now we have CC & R's and HOA's. What a waste.