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Strait of Hormuz: Will Iran Shut It Down?


               
2025 Jun 21, 6:35pm   3,056 views  94 comments

by MolotovCocktail   follow (4)  





The ragheads said they would.

Keep in mind that they don't have to shut it completely down. They just have to do enough damage for the global maritime shipping insurers to shut down coverage of all said shipping.

I don't think they will do it beyond some lame token attack. Shutting down shipping in the PG would hurt their patron China too much.

But if it gets shut down, California will see $15/gallon gas real soon. Because CA would rather be oil dependent on ragheads who treat women like shit than buy any from 'Those Evil Fracker Fuckers in Texas'. Hawaii will be fucked, too.

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1   Ceffer   @   2025 Jun 21, 7:18pm  

Iran now has that railway for transporting oil to China, but if they did shut down Hormuz, Iran would have a lot more enemies than Israel to contend with. I don't count USA as enemy of Iran, just the regime and and its activities.
2   AntiPanicanPlanTruster   @   2025 Jun 21, 8:10pm  

Ceffer says


Iran now has that railway for transporting oil to China, but if they did shut down Hormuz, Iran would have a lot more enemies than Israel to contend with. I don't count USA as enemy of Iran, just the regime and and its activities.

That railway is nothing compared to Tankers, and that railroad goes through a lot of countries. And railways are easy as hell to bomb and sabotage... especially through those lonely Central Asian stretches.

Sure would be terrible if a truss of a railway bridge happened to collapse on some isolated hill pass. Sure would be Shame, Mr. Xi.
4   MolotovCocktail   @   2025 Jun 21, 8:23pm  

AmericanKulakMaximumTrumper says

Ceffer says



Iran now has that railway for transporting oil to China, but if they did shut down Hormuz, Iran would have a lot more enemies than Israel to contend with. I don't count USA as enemy of Iran, just the regime and and its activities.

That railway is nothing compared to Tankers, and that railroad goes through a lot of countries. And railways are easy as hell to bomb and sabotage... especially through those lonely Central Asian stretches.

Sure would be terrible if a truss of a railway bridge happened to collapse on some isolated hill pass. Sure would be Shame, Mr. Xi.


Yup.
8   MolotovCocktail   @   2025 Jun 22, 9:59am  

@Grok, how fucked is Libtarded California if the Hormuz spice does not flow?

Closing shipping in the Strait of Hormuz would significantly impact California's economy and residents due to its reliance on global oil markets and trade. The Strait handles about 20% of global oil supply and a third of liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade, making it a critical chokepoint for energy markets.

Here's how a closure could affect California:

Higher Energy Prices: California imports roughly 60% of its crude oil, with a significant portion historically coming from Persian Gulf countries like Saudi Arabia and Iraq, which rely on the Strait for exports A closure would likely cause global oil prices to spike, potentially exceeding $100-$150 per barrel or even reaching $350 in extreme scenarios. This would translate to higher gasoline and diesel prices in California, where gas prices are already among the highest in the U.S. For example, a post on X noted that filling a truck in California currently costs $130, and a closure could push prices much higher.

Inflation and Consumer Costs: Rising fuel prices would increase transportation and logistics costs, driving up prices for goods and services across California. Sectors like agriculture, manufacturing, and retail, which depend on affordable fuel, would face higher operating costs, squeezing consumers already dealing with high living expenses. Analysts estimate that a prolonged closure could add up to 1% to non-energy inflation in energy-dependent regions.

Supply Chain Disruptions: California’s ports, such as Los Angeles and Long Beach, handle a massive share of U.S. imports, including electronics, raw materials, and consumer goods from Asia. While most of these goods don’t pass through the Strait, higher global shipping costs due to oil price surges and potential rerouting could delay deliveries and increase prices. A closure would also disrupt LNG supplies, affecting energy-intensive industries.

Impact on Oil Infrastructure: California’s environmental policies have limited domestic oil production and pipeline restarts, increasing reliance on imported oil, some of which transits the Strait. X posts claim about half of California’s oil supply is linked to the Strait, though exact figures are hard to verify. A closure could strain local refineries, potentially leading to fuel shortages or rationing if alternative supplies (e.g., from Canada or Latin America) can’t be secured quickly.

Economic Ripple Effects: California’s economy, the largest in the U.S., is sensitive to global shocks. A global recession triggered by a Strait closure, as warned by analysts, could reduce demand for California’s tech, entertainment, and agricultural exports. Job losses in trade-dependent sectors and reduced consumer spending could follow.

Geopolitical and Military Costs: A closure might draw the U.S. into military action to reopen the Strait, given the presence of the U.S. Fifth Fleet in Bahrain. California, home to major military bases, could see increased activity or economic strain from federal defense spending, indirectly affecting state resources.

Mitigating Factors: The U.S., including California, is less dependent on Gulf oil than in past decades due to increased domestic production and imports from Canada. Alternative pipelines, like Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline, could partially offset disruptions, though capacity is limited (4.2 million barrels/day vs. 20 million through the Strait). However, global price shocks would still hit California hard.

Likelihood and Context: Iran, which controls the Strait’s northern shore, has threatened closures but never fully blocked it, even during the Iran-Iraq War. Analysts argue Iran is unlikely to close the Strait due to economic self-harm (it relies on the Strait for its own oil exports to China) and the risk of U.S. military retaliation. Still, even short-term disruptions or heightened tensions could spike prices, as seen in 2019 when Brent crude rose 20% amid fears of conflict.

In summary, a Strait of Hormuz closure would hit California with higher fuel prices, inflation, supply chain issues, and economic slowdown, disproportionately affecting lower-income residents and energy-intensive industries. While the U.S.’s energy independence softens the blow, California’s import reliance and high costs make it vulnerable. The scenario remains unlikely but plausible given ongoing Israel-Iran tensions.
9   WookieMan   @   2025 Jun 22, 12:00pm  

MolotovCocktail says

But if it gets shut down, California will see $15/gallon gas real soon. Because CA would rather be oil dependent on ragheads who treat women like shit than buy any from 'Those Evil Fracker Fuckers in Texas'. Hawaii will be fucked, too.

Agree with the gas price for 6-12 months. CA would be better off with Canadian and ND and SD fracking oil and building or modifying refineries out there to handle that type of crude. Easier to cross the Rockies through Montana as far as grades to climb or go down.

They know the routes I don't, but ultimately gas tax seems to be the biggest problem. Also prices on oil would come down as more short commuters would go electric. From my understanding ICE vehicles are basically paying for EV's. The party ends at some point.
10   Patrick   @   2025 Jun 22, 6:09pm  

Patrick says






https://michaelyon.substack.com/p/videos-israel-devastating-incoming


Important note — China and Iran recently opened direct rail traffic. This bypasses all naval chokepoints.
11   Ceffer   @   2025 Jun 22, 6:11pm  

I think there is going to be a little Iran and China railroad that's destined for some international tinkering.



12   HeadSet   @   2025 Jun 22, 6:14pm  

Patrick says

Important note — China and Iran recently opened direct rail traffic. This bypasses all naval chokepoints.

It seems a pipeline would have been more efficient.
13   Patrick   @   2025 Jun 22, 7:17pm  

I imagine that it will essentially be Iranian oil for Chinese goods.
14   MolotovCocktail   @   2025 Jun 22, 10:36pm  

Patrick says

Patrick says







https://michaelyon.substack.com/p/videos-israel-devastating-incoming



Important note — China and Iran recently opened direct rail traffic. This bypasses all naval chokepoints.



Book of Boba Fett had an episode that paid homage to Lawrence of Arabia's train scene:

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=CsN1vAulIK4
15   MolotovCocktail   @   2025 Jun 22, 10:37pm  

HeadSet says

Patrick says


Important note — China and Iran recently opened direct rail traffic. This bypasses all naval chokepoints.

It seems a pipeline would have been more efficient.


Yes. Trains are good for coal vs oil transport.
17   zzyzzx   @   2025 Jun 23, 6:13am  

Why doesn't Saudi Arabia ship it out of the Red Sea instead? I mean it's not like they can't build the infrastructure to do that. It's also not like a potential Strait of Hormuz closure hasn't been as issue for quite some time. I also wonder how hard it would be for the UAE to build infrastructure past the strait as well (or a canal).
18   MolotovCocktail   @   2025 Jun 23, 6:28am  

zzyzzx says

Why doesn't Saudi Arabia ship it out of the Red Sea instead? I mean it's not like they can't build the infrastructure to do that. It's also not like a potential Strait of Hormuz closure hasn't been as issue for quite some time. I also wonder how hard it would be for the UAE to build infrastructure past the strait as well (or a canal).


They can and do.

But that does nothing for the exports of UAE, Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, etc. And I don't think they have built up enough there for LNG export, if any. LNG is as big as deal as oil, these days.

Not to mention the Houthis are still shooting shit up there, even though that isn't in the western news much.
19   WookieMan   @   2025 Jun 23, 6:43am  

zzyzzx says

Why doesn't Saudi Arabia ship it out of the Red Sea instead? I mean it's not like they can't build the infrastructure to do that. It's also not like a potential Strait of Hormuz closure hasn't been as issue for quite some time. I also wonder how hard it would be for the UAE to build infrastructure past the strait as well (or a canal).

Iran is in a no win situation. Higher oil prices only help the Saudis and the US as sanctions don't allow them to even sell oil places. So it makes no sense. Blockade yourself? Ships can't get insurance to go through even Iranian ones without massive cost. You live on arid land so you rely on imports. It's kind of funny on the surface.

They don't have a nuke and ZERO chance they get one from another country. The iron was hot and Trump made a strike. Close the Straits. We can sit back in the Arabian sea and bomb the shit out of their navy. No civilian death and we can claim to be helping the Iranian people by reopening it.

When you look at all the factors, Trump has Iran backed into a corner. Russia has its own war. China can't do anything as fuel oil prices for them could triple. I don't like war, but if you're going to do it, do it right. Trump knew they'd try to close the Straits. Russia won't give them a nuke or Pakistan. Iran should just come to the table.
21   zzyzzx   @   2025 Jun 23, 8:43am  

>Important note — China and Iran recently opened direct rail traffic. This bypasses all naval chokepoints.

Also, doesn't that rail line go over a mountain range? If so that's got to make it that much more difficult to use.
22   MolotovCocktail   @   2025 Jun 23, 8:47am  

zzyzzx says

>Important note — China and Iran recently opened direct rail traffic. This bypasses all naval chokepoints.

Also, doesn't that rail line go over a mountain range? If so that's got to make it that much more difficult to use.



23   Patrick   @   2025 Jun 29, 3:42pm  

2,000,000 million?
24   AntiPanicanPlanTruster   @   2025 Jun 29, 4:34pm  

zzyzzx says

Also, doesn't that rail line go over a mountain range? If so that's got to make it that much more difficult to use.

And sabotage, in areas isolated and difficult to bring repair materials, equipment, and crews.
25   MolotovCocktail   @   2026 Mar 2, 7:46am  

It's effectively shut down now.

And...







Hawaii and California will be effected. Probably Oregon and Washington, too.
26   RWSGFY   @   2026 Mar 2, 8:15am  

MolotovCocktail says

It's effectively shut down now.




Yawn: they tried it in '88.
27   MolotovCocktail   @   2026 Mar 2, 8:26am  

RWSGFY says


MolotovCocktail says


It's effectively shut down now.



Yawn: they tried it in '88.



What do you mean? YAWN?

It is shut down. Ships are being shot at. Tankers lose their maritime insurance if they go there now.

That fucking shuts it down, homey.


OIL and gas shipping remains largely paused in the Strait of Hormuz that links the oil-rich Persian Gulf to the open seas, as a regional conflict escalates and Iran cranks up threats to vessels transiting through the chokepoint.

On Sunday, a trickle of vessels were moving out of the waterway, which is crucial for the flow of oil and gas, according to ship-tracking data, even if none appeared to be entering. A small oil tanker, which appears to be sanctioned by the US for helping Iran export fuels, was targeted off Oman’s northern coast, though it was unclear who was behind the attack.


https://businessmirror.com.ph/2026/03/02/ships-avoid-strait-of-hormuz-as-iran-cranks-up-threats/
28   RWSGFY   @   2026 Mar 2, 8:55am  

MolotovCocktail says

RWSGFY says



MolotovCocktail says



It's effectively shut down now.



Yawn: they tried it in '88.




What do you mean? YAWN?

It is shut down. Ships are being shot at. Tankers lose their maritime insurance if they go there now.

That fucking shuts it down, homey.



OIL and gas shipping remains largely paused in the Strait of Hormuz that links the oil-rich Persian Gulf to the open seas, as a regional conflict escalates and Iran cranks up threats to vessels transiting through the chokepoint.

On Sunday, a trickle of vessels were moving out of the waterway, which is crucial for the flow of oil and gas, according to ship-tracking data, even if none appeared to be entering. A small oil tanker, which appears to be sanctioned by the US for helping Iran export fuels, was targeted off Oman’s northern coast, though it was unclear who was behind the attack.


https://businessmirror.com.ph/2026/03/02/ships-avoid-strait-of-hormuz-as-iran-cranks-up-threats/


Calm down, sport: they also SHUT IT DOWN in '88. The rest is history.
29   MolotovCocktail   @   2026 Mar 2, 8:57am  

RWSGFY says

Calm down, sport: they also SHUT IT DOWN in '88. The rest is history.


Just cut your bullshit.

For once.
30   zzyzzx   @   2026 Mar 2, 11:34am  

MolotovCocktail says

It is shut down. Ships are being shot at. Tankers lose their maritime insurance if they go there now.

That fucking shuts it down, homey.


True, but it wasn't the Iranian military that shut it down, because they couldn't if they wanted to.

The UAE needs a canal, or another pipeline.
31   MolotovCocktail   @   2026 Mar 2, 12:27pm  

zzyzzx says

True, but it wasn't the Iranian military that shut it down, because they couldn't if they wanted to.


Shooting is shooting.

Civilians aren't doing it, either.
32   MolotovCocktail   @   2026 Mar 3, 8:58am  

Oh, I see what the problem is:

I never said anything about the Iranians being the cause.

https://patrick.net/post/1384863?start=2251614#comment-2251614

But one of our resident 'experts' on the Ukey Nazi War who can't tell the difference between Soviet and Russian then blessed us with his 'knowledge' that is what I was implying?

Meanwhile, the Planet Reality that I based my comment on the fact that it is the goddamn insurance companies that effectively closed it.


Between March 1 and March 2, seven of the twelve clubs belonging to the International Group of Protection and Indemnity Clubs issued seventy-two-hour cancellation notices for war risk coverage in the Persian Gulf, the Gulf of Oman, and all Iranian territorial waters. Gard AS, NorthStandard, Steamship Mutual, Assuranceforeningen Skuld, the American Club, the Swedish Club, and the London P&I Club collectively insure approximately ninety percent of the world’s ocean-going commercial tonnage. When they withdraw, ships do not sail. Not because they cannot. Because they must not. No P&I cover means no port will accept them, no cargo owner will load them, no bank will finance the voyage, no charterer will contract them. The vessel becomes a commercially unviable object adrift in a system that runs entirely on institutional trust.


https://shanakaanslemperera.substack.com/p/the-invisible-siege-how-insurance

Just to clear things up.
33   MolotovCocktail   @   2026 Mar 3, 12:32pm  

Looky, looky.



Right now it is just bluff. We shall see.

It appears to have had an immediate effect on WTI crude prices. Which is weird as WTI isn't impacted by international events like Bent is.
34   MolotovCocktail   @   2026 Mar 3, 5:24pm  

I knew it!

They don't have shit set up in actuality.


35   FortWayneHatesRealtors   @   2026 Mar 3, 5:28pm  

Does he think issue is insurance or that people don’t want to die? Rich people view of the world is everyone is disposable for their entertainment.
36   MolotovCocktail   @   2026 Mar 3, 5:38pm  

FortWayneHatesRealtors says

Does he think issue is insurance or that people don’t want to die? Rich people view of the world is everyone is disposable for their entertainment.


Its not about what he thinks.

What is keeping ships out of the strait IS the insurance. Right now.
37   FortWayneHatesRealtors   @   2026 Mar 3, 5:48pm  

MolotovCocktail says

FortWayneHatesRealtors says


Does he think issue is insurance or that people don’t want to die? Rich people view of the world is everyone is disposable for their entertainment.


Its not about what he thinks.

What is keeping ships out of the strait IS the insurance. Right now.


I don’t agree, I think it’s the missiles flying. No insurance will make me drive/fly/boat through a war zone. I really think thats the obvious thing.

Either way, we will know shortly how it works out.
38   GNL   @   2026 Mar 3, 5:48pm  

MolotovCocktail says

FortWayneHatesRealtors says


Does he think issue is insurance or that people don’t want to die? Rich people view of the world is everyone is disposable for their entertainment.


Its not about what he thinks.

What is keeping ships out of the strait IS the insurance. Right now.

What if Trump authorizes the government to insure them?
39   MolotovCocktail   @   2026 Mar 3, 5:50pm  

GNL says

MolotovCocktail says


FortWayneHatesRealtors says



Does he think issue is insurance or that people don’t want to die? Rich people view of the world is everyone is disposable for their entertainment.


Its not about what he thinks.

What is keeping ships out of the strait IS the insurance. Right now.


What if Trump authorizes the government to insure them?


https://patrick.net/post/1384863?start=2252225#comment-2252225
40   GNL   @   2026 Mar 3, 5:53pm  

FortWayneHatesRealtors says

Does he think issue is insurance or that people don’t want to die? Rich people view of the world is everyone is disposable for their entertainment.

You just made an extremely important point. This ^^^^

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