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Today is the day! Sell stocks, invest bonds!


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2022 Nov 11, 8:30am   7,242 views  54 comments

by Shaman   ➕follow (4)   💰tip   ignore  

The market had a nice bump (exactly as I predicted) https://patrick.net/post/1347675/2022-10-05-the-stock-market-is-wrong-the-economy?start=1#comment-1891329 post election, indeed rising over the couple of weeks before the election. We have reached another peak, and the optimism will dribble out of the market quickly. I firmly expect drops in stock value to be the rule going forward for a few months. First it will be tax loss realization, as investors take losses they can write off on taxes for this year. That will depress stock prices, which will mean they will hold off on buying more for a while. This will become a self-perpetuating trend as more bad economic news rolls in. I expect heavy stock value losses in the early parts or next year. Perhaps even all year long as we saw in 2008.

I reinvested my investments in bonds yesterday, and switched my kids’ 529 college savings plan investments to bonds today. So I’m putting my own money on this bet, and I’m going all in.

BEAR MARKET alert!

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52   clambo   2023 Apr 1, 8:48am  

@stfu
Actually, the inherited IRA was smaller than 300K and I inherited it in 2017; it was already invested for some capital appreciation so it grew in those few years.
I have saved and invested my entire life expecting not to receive much from my parents.
My father was not an astute investor; in fact he made some mistakes but he earned enough to eventually have money when he needed it.
My father's ancestor was a founder of Wachovia Bank; he had inherited shares. I told him "Go up to the Fidelity store on Broadway and sell it and buy a couple of stock mutual funds; it's better to be diversified than keep one stock."
He didn't follow my advice and in 2008 lost about $650,000 when Wachovia went bust and he got a few shares of Wells Fargo in exchange.

I previously got an inheritance from my mother and I rolled the dice with it and bought shares of AAPL; I have a large capital gain from this gamble.

I'm not bitter about the guys I know who won't save their money; I'm a little pissed off at my friends who get public pensions who pay no California tax on them. I'm also a bit pissed off at people who don't save a dime and get govt. money because they have some bastard children.

I have a frugal nature and have made arrangements to save even more money; it's just my habit and I can't quit.
I changed my state residence to Florida; next year I will depart Florida and be in Baja Sur, saving more since I won't be owning or renting in Florida for a decade or so.
Interestingly, others from up North (Canada, California, Washington, Oregon, etc.) are doing the same, so Baja housing prices are rising, but are still very reasonable.

At the rate I'm going, I'm never going to spend my money; it's a large enough nest egg that even if I spend 4X what I spend today, it will never run out.

My only frivolous spending it eating out but then the fun is finding places which are good but not expensive.
53   AD   2023 Dec 7, 8:19pm  

.

The CAGR for the S&P 500 is about 3.7% (each year) from 1 January 2000 to 31 December 2022. It is inflation adjusted and accounts for dividends.

Historically the CAGR is around 6.5%. The last 22 years has been a dismal extended period for the S&P 500.

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54   AD   2023 Dec 10, 10:35am  

.

https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/12/10/where-will-amazon-stock-be-in-3-years/

Amazon is slowly making its way back toward the 6% profit-margin record it set a few years ago. That's better than traditional retailer rivals like Costco Wholesale can manage but is far below the over-40%-profit rate that growth-stock investors can get from a company like Microsoft.

There's a good chance that Amazon's margins will reach double-digits over the next few years, though. Operating income is already soaring, compared to last year, for example. The company generated $24 billion in profits in the past three quarters, up from $10 billion a year earlier.

Management projects profits as high as $11 billion in the holiday quarter, too, compared to $3 billion in late 2022. Amazon is targeting more balance between growth and profits today, and this approach should continue improving its finances over the next several years.

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