patrick.net

I'm down at least 15 Hummers from peak, but still a ways from "OH HOLY SHIT". Future is unknowable, past and present predict almost nothing. That's why they have Monte Carlo calculators, to cover varying periods of ups and downs for long term investors.

Another of the things from the WSJ (previous to it's current fake news status) was comparing hypothetical investors. One was a woman who was always a perfect contrarian, versus an investor who invested by reacting to every short term trend and threat. The 'reactive' investor did terrible, whereas the hypothetical 'perfect contrarian' did very well.

There are always parties out there trying to get you to be a reactive investor based on short term current circumstances as predictors of the future.
Dwelling on a past that is impossible to change isn't very instructive about trends in the future.

Invest in oil and guns and ammo.

we moved all stocks into safe value temporarily a while back. tiny gains, but no losses. that was our fear of biden collapsing markets.

sold a house, but that wasn’t biden related. just hated paying property taxes to these fucking crooks.

FortwayeAsFuckJoeBiden says

we moved all stocks into safe value temporarily a while back. tiny gains, but no losses. that was our fear of biden collapsing markets.

That was smart.

In retrospect it's all pretty predictable with Democrats in power.

S&P 500 is only about 7% above the all time high set in early 2020 (3380 points) just before the pandemic. Accounting for inflation between then and now, its real return is negative. And its down 25% from its recent 52 week high.

This is just a continuation of the April 2020 bear market as the Fed is trying to eliminate any COVID-pandemic asset gains.

I think there is downside risk for it to bottom around 30 to 35% below its 52 week high. I see the S&P 500's bottom around 3200 to 3300.

If the S&P 500 drops to 28% below its 52 week high within the next two weeks I was going to shift some of my 401 K more into a Wilshire 5000 index fund.

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I know nothing. Average bear market last 16 months. Buying around these periods is always proven to be good. I just bought my employer stock after it went low about a month back. Now I lost a bit more. I am not worried as I know will bounce back.

Blue says

bought my employer stock

Which company ? Can you at least tell industry like semiconductor, software/applications, etc. ?

semiconductor - cyclical sector, watch out for over supply soon if you want to buy.

Blue says

semiconductor - cyclical sector, watch out for over supply soon if you want to buy.

I am guessing you work for AMD. What do you mean over supply soon ?

I mean if there is an over supply of semiconductors that means AMD would drop even more and its already down about 62% from its 52 week and all time high. Granted this much of a drop already has priced in major earnings declines for the next few quarters.

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Yes, that’s the risk I was talking about, not so sure if that over supply is built in or not. I know for sure industry will go through at some point especially after more countries starting their own manufacturing in deglobalization environment. I am not trading for short term. But I have a weird feeling that they will go up lower double digits within 6mo or at least can not go down.

Defense stocks, duh.

RWSGFY says

Defense stocks, duh

Still some upside left for Lockheed Martin, et al over the next couple of years