patrick.net

https://fortune.com/2024/04/16/fed-chair-jerome-powell-no-rate-cuts-this-year-markets/

Fed Chair Jerome Powell has an ‘unfriendly’ message for markets: You might not be getting any rate cuts this year

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-16/booming-us-economy-inspires-radical-theory-on-wall-street

What If Fed Rate Hikes Are Actually Sparking US Economic Boom?

As the US economy hums along month after month, minting hundreds of thousands of new jobs and confounding experts who had warned of an imminent downturn, some on Wall Street are starting to entertain a fringe economic theory.

What if, they ask, all those interest-rate hikes the past two years are actually boosting the economy? In other words, maybe the economy isn’t booming despite higher rates but rather because of them.

It’s an idea so radical that in mainstream academic and financial circles, it borders on heresy — the sort of thing that in the past only Turkey’s populist president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, or the most zealous disciples of Modern Monetary Theory would dare utter publicly.

But the new converts — along with a handful who confess to being at least curious about the idea — say the economic evidence is becoming impossible to ignore. By some key gauges — GDP, unemployment, corporate profits — the expansion now is as strong or even stronger than it was when the Federal Reserve first began lifting rates.

Yep. I tell panhandlers now to bugger off and invest in Treasuries.

Al_Sharpton_for_President says

50, 75, 100?

It doesn't matter anymore. The only asset the fed controls is depreciating at an ever accelerating pace. Prison or freedom, that's all that matters now.

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/17/wall-street-pushes-out-rate-cut-expectations-sees-risk-of-no-action-until-2025.html

Wall Street pushes out rate-cut expectations, sees risk they don’t start until March 2025

zzyzzx says

Wall Street pushes out rate-cut expectations, sees risk they don’t start until March 2025

Too soon.

But the Fed Experts on PatNet said...

Mortgage Rates Pass 7% for First Time in 2024

Mortgage rates climbed above 7% for the first time this year as traders re-evaluated the odds for interest-rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate this week was 7.1%, according to Freddie Mac It was the highest rate since late November, and the sharpest week-over-week increase since early June. Home prices kept rising in March, the National Association of Realtors said earlier this morning, adding to the difficulty of finding an affordable home.

https://finance.yahoo.com/m/a057fc09-5d77-3694-b5dc-9dad9f6732d2/mortgage-rates-pass-7-for.html

Al_Sharpton_for_President says

Mortgage rates climbed above 7% for the first time this year as traders re-evaluated the odds for interest-rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate this week was 7.1%, according to Freddie Mac It was the highest rate since late November, and the sharpest week-over-week increase since early June

But the Fed Experts on PatNet said...

https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/feds-bostic-open-rate-hike-if-inflation-progress-stalls-2024-04-18/

Fed's Bostic: open to a rate hike if inflation progress stalls

UkraineIsTotallyFucked says

Al_Sharpton_for_President says

Mortgage rates climbed above 7% for the first time this year as traders re-evaluated the odds for interest-rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate this week was 7.1%, according to Freddie Mac It was the highest rate since late November, and the sharpest week-over-week increase since early June

But the Fed Experts on PatNet said...

But the Fed Experts on PatNet three years ago said...

zzyzzx says

https://wolfstreet.com/2024/05/01/fed-holds-rates-at-5-50-top-of-range-qt-slowdown-starts-in-june-acknowledged-inflation-is-a-problem-again/

But the Rate Cut Geniuses on PatNet said...


https://wolfstreet.com/2024/05/01/oh-deary-where-did-my-rate-cuts-go-feds-wait-and-see-now-entrenched-and-suddenly-lots-of-talk-about-rate-hikes/

From what I could decipher from the 60 Minute interview with Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, the Fed will lower rates when the CPI's and PCE's 6 month average for annual inflation are below 3%.

AD says

From what I could decipher from the 60 Minute interview with Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, the Fed will lower rates when the CPI's and PCE's 6 month average for annual inflation are below 3%.

Their mandate is 2% average inflation. Emphasis on average.