patrick.net

FreeAmericanDOP says

Next year the storm really hits:

* Rents already declining nationally.
* Rents will decline even more as stubborn sellers rent them out rather than settle for non-peak pricing ("Sticky Upwards")
* Declining rents insufficient to pay all/most of holding costs will finally get Primary Homeloaners to throw in the towel
* Deportation will amplify, and HUD/Sec8 paid landlords will also be hit on the lower ends.
* Apartment Complex owners, bigger companies, are already up the creek with vacancies and special free month offers.
* Continuing rate cuts will have little to no impact in reversing the inevitable market price discovery.

FreeAmericanDOP says

* Rents already declining nationally.

This is why RD Offutt likely stopped construction after clearing land for its +250 apartment unit called Hathaway Luxury Apartments in Panama City Beach Florida, as Panama City Beach townhome rental prices are at 2020 to 2021 price levels. Its like Panama City Beach is leading in regards to rent and home price decreases compared to national statistics.

Approximate Historical Multifamily Mortgage Delinquency or Distress Rates (1960–2025)
• 1960s–1970s: ~1–2% (stable, strong postwar demand).
• 1980s: Spikes to ~6–7% during the Savings & Loan crisis.
• 1990s: ~4–5% in early recession, falling to ~2% mid‑decade.
• 2008–2010: Peaks at ~8.5% during the Great Recession.
• 2015–2018: Historic lows ~1.5–2%.
• 2020: COVID disruption ~2.5%.
• 2024–2025: Sharp rise to ~13%, highest since Great Recession

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/real-estate/article-15365157/foreclosures-jump-mortgage-affordability-crisis.html

Foreclosures jump over 20% as Americans fall behind on mortgages amid affordability crisis

Glock-n-Load says

There’s simply not enough housing or houses being built so unless they’re just building in the wrong areas, I just don’t see prices coming down in any significant fashion.

Agreed.

zzyzzx says

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/real-estate/article-15365157/foreclosures-jump-mortgage-affordability-crisis.html

Foreclosures jump over 20% as Americans fall behind on mortgages amid affordability crisis

Only in the hipster coastal urban areas I am sure.

MolotovCocktail says

zzyzzx says

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/real-estate/article-15365157/foreclosures-jump-mortgage-affordability-crisis.html

Foreclosures jump over 20% as Americans fall behind on mortgages amid affordability crisis

Only in the hipster coastal urban areas I am sure.

Plenty here too in Idaho

Glock-n-Load says

"There’s simply not enough housing or houses being built so unless they’re just building in the wrong areas, I just don’t see prices coming down in any significant fashion.

Not true. The supply of houses in the market is low because we are dealing with a monopoly. Something like 90% plus of the houses in the USA are owned by six financial companies.

The_Deplorable says

Glock-n-Load says

"There’s simply not enough housing or houses being built so unless they’re just building in the wrong areas, I just don’t see prices coming down in any significant fashion.

Not true. The supply of houses in the market is low because we are dealing with a monopoly. Something like 90% plus of the houses in the USA are owned by six financial companies.

That is a misprint for sure. 90% of all houses are owned by 6 financial companies? What?

GNL says

"That is a misprint for sure. 90% of all houses are owned by 6 financial companies? What?"

Yes, we are dealing with a huge monopoly here.
Think about it: For the first time in our history, interest rates are going up and housing prices are not coming down.

The_Deplorable says

Not true. The supply of houses in the market is low because we are dealing with a monopoly. Something like 90% plus of the houses in the USA are owned by six financial companies.

That can't be right. Not even in hot markets. I think it's less than 5% by institutions (and another 5% by smaller, local companies NOT owned or managed by REITs or Funds) and that was COVID peak, they've unloaded quite a bit as the markets expected to "Go up forever" like Texas, Tennessee, and Florida are declining the fastest

The_Deplorable says

GNL says

"That is a misprint for sure. 90% of all houses are owned by 6 financial companies? What?"

Yes, we are dealing with a huge monopoly here.
Think about it: For the first time in our history, interest rates are going up and housing prices are not coming down.

“Managed” economy. Inflation is insane too. We are buying our own debt. Suicide.

Earlier I wrote: The supply of houses in the market is low because we are dealing
with a monopoly. Something like 90% plus of the houses in the USA are owned by
six financial companies.

FreeAmericanDOP says

"That can't be right...

Think of it this way. The housing bubble goes back about 20 years to Alan Greenspan
who deliberately kept interest rates low (based on the Fed minutes).
Greenspan was the Fed chairman at the time.

Approximately 2-4% of single-family homes in the USA are owned by large institutional investors or financial companies (typically defined as entities owning 100+ or 1,000+ properties, such as private equity firms, REITs like Invitation Homes, or major corporate landlords).This figure comes from multiple recent analyses as of 2024-2025:Institutional investors own about 3.8% of the nation's single-family rental properties (Urban Institute, Brookings, and related reports), and since single-family rentals make up roughly 15-18% of all single-family homes, this translates to under 1% of the total stock in some estimates—but focused on larger entities.
Very large investors (1,000+ homes) own around 2.2% of investor-held properties, which themselves comprise ~20% of the ~86 million single-family homes (BatchData and John Burns Research & Consulting reports from 2025).
Overall, large institutional ownership is consistently described as less than 2-4% nationally (Econofact, GAO, and Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies), though higher (up to 10-25%) in specific Sunbelt markets like Atlanta or Charlotte.

Broader "investors" (including small "mom-and-pop" landlords owning 1-10 properties) own about 20% of single-family homes, but these are mostly individuals, not financial companies.Claims of much higher corporate ownership (e.g., 20% by private equity) are debunked as misconceptions confusing total investor activity with large financial institutions. Investor purchases of new sales have risen (25-33% in 2025 quarters), but this is driven mostly by small buyers, and stock ownership changes slowly.

https://x.com/i/grok/share/yHd5zAyHJtLxroy0uI5dacvUR

The big shots have been dumping out of the hotter markets in the Sunbelt for over a year now (despite claims of local non-pro homeloaners and realtors, who are usually several quarters behind reality), selling off in small pieces, though now they are screwed in Tampa.

I'm no friend of big finance (needs to be cut down 3 pegs, not just one) but it's just the ordinary sticky upwards mentality of many Homeloaners. For all their bitchin, many of them didn't take advantage just a little of the greatest stock runup in history and really bet it all on the house appreciating several fold since 1993 to retire on.

Midwest Party, formerly hot markets wallow

At the current rate of 6.2% for conventional 30 year mortgage, prices need to come down at least 20% from peak prices set in 2022.

.......................

Homebuilder Lennar Cuts Prices by 10% as CEO Admits Buyers Face an ‘Affordability Crisis’

https://www.realtor.com/news/real-estate-news/lennar-earnings-price-cut-december-2025/

I like a 6.2% interest rate. Good and normal.

People are too habituated, too addicted, too mentally enslaved to too low interest rates, which creates a debt borrowing frenzy. 5-8% is the healthy range. It could be cut a bit for the reindustrialization, but not too much, either.

There is no rage quitter like a California equity snob quitter. I'm watching Santa Cruz with interest. A place three doors down in Santa Cruz, which is reasonably priced for what it is in California, hasn't sold for six months and it's staged very nicely.

All the above is evidence that the housing market is a monopoly...

Supply and demand does not exist...

"Why don't Americans save? You can always buy a CD here in low rate early 2010s and get a whopping 0.3% return. Doesn't that make you want to put your money to sleep for a year?"

Nothing is going on in the housing market. Sales of existing homes about 4 million. Half a percent lower than last year. Pre-Covid, sales were a touch above 5 million per year. There's still no inventory (about 1.4 million for sale. Pre-Covid, inventory was running about 2 million for sale). Inventory is up a whopping 7.5% from last year...so it only needs to increase another 45% roughly to get back to pre-covid inventory levels. Prices for houses sold up a touch over 1% from last year. 29 months of year over year price increases, but I wouldn't read too much into that considering how anemic the increases have been.

Overall, a whole lot of nothing.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/realestate/why-were-home-prices-still-climbing-last-month-despite-slowing-sales/ar-AA1SGuyy?pc=HCTS

MolotovCocktail says

Yep. Eventually life changes and reality will overwhelm the ability of stubborn homeloaners to list and de-list, stomp their feet, try to rent, be disappointed with that, and finally accept reality.

They are in the "I'm entitled to peak pricing! Home prices only go up!" phase.

And no, institutional ownership of homes is not a factor; the big boys have been selling off in slices since 2023 and are mostly concentrated in a handful of metro areas. Their total ownership of about 10% is less than "Mom and Pop" landlords (20-30%) and a tiny proportion to house and houseloan owners (over 60%)

The Houseloan owners are the most important segment, they are making big payments that if they stop, the bank will repo "Their" house. Yes I know about property tax, but the big one is the House Loan.

AmenCorner_AntiPanican says

I like a 6.2% interest rate. Good and normal.

People are too habituated, too addicted, too mentally enslaved to too low interest rates

You may be part of that "habituation" if you think 6.2% is normal. 6% is more like passbook savings while mortgages over the decades averaged more like 7.5 to 8%. And mortgages typically required a down payment.

Ceffer says

A place three doors down in Santa Cruz, which is reasonably priced for what it is in California, hasn't sold for six months and it's staged very nicely.

Well, they would get you as a neighbor.

https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/2002164275041702380

MolotovCocktail says

https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/2002164275041702380

What else needs to be known that proves our economy is totally managed? Especially all of the most important parts/industries. The ones EVERYONE needs.

MolotovCocktail says

Is there a link to when Trump said that?

FortWayneHatesRealtors says

Is there a link to when Trump said that?

I already posted it here:

https://patrick.net/comment?comment_id=2232497

MolotovCocktail says

FortWayneHatesRealtors says

Is there a link to when Trump said that?

I already posted it here:

https://patrick.net/comment?comment_id=2232497

Thanks. He’s trying to g to eat the cake and have it too.

Never seen a builder who was ok with real estate prices going down. The whole game is price inflation to borrow money from previous asset to put into next. Definitely explains the 50 year government backed mortgage trial balloon bullshit he tried.

FortWayneHatesRealtors says

The whole game is price inflation to borrow money from previous asset to put into next. Definitely explains the 50 year government backed mortgage trial balloon bullshit he tried.

Yup:

The admin cannot "increase affordability" because we are dealing with a monopoly. Something
like 90% plus of the houses in the USA are owned by six financial companies.

The_Deplorable says

Something
like 90% plus of the houses in the USA are owned by six financial companies.

About 50% are Freddie Mae and Fanny Mac

https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/115855059527504524

@realDonaldTrump

For a very long time, buying and owning a home was considered the pinnacle of the American Dream. It was the reward for working hard, and doing the right thing, but now, because of the Record High Inflation caused by Joe Biden and the Democrats in Congress, that American Dream is increasingly out of reach for far too many people, especially younger Americans. It is for that reason, and much more, that I am immediately taking steps to ban large institutional investors from buying more single-family homes, and I will be calling on Congress to codify it. People live in homes, not corporations. I will discuss this topic, including further Housing and Affordability proposals, and more, at my speech in Davos in two weeks.

It's nice that he's aware, but the real solution is to build a LOT more housing near areas where the jobs are.

Increase supply. This will annoy those boomers who profit from restricting supply and preventing young couples from owning houses and raising families. But the alternative is our current slow strangulation to keep boomers happy.

I know the rules around building are mostly state and local, but there's probably a lot the federal government can do, like pressuring states to increase supply, and freeing up federal land for housing near jobs.

Patrick says

It's nice that he's aware, but the real solution is to build a LOT more housing near areas where the jobs are.

True, but taking existing homes out of Airbnb and corporate rentals adds for to the supply for sale.

HeadSet says

Patrick says

It's nice that he's aware, but the real solution is to build a LOT more housing near areas where the jobs are.

True, but taking existing homes out of Airbnb and corporate rentals adds for to the supply for sale.

I find it quite surprising that Airbnb is allowed. Isn't that a commercial endeavor? Why was it ever allowed in residential zoned areas?

GNL says

Why was it ever allowed in residential zoned areas?

Corruption