patrick.net

Apartment Rents continue their national decline:


https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/02/apartment-rents-vacancies-november.html

Just wait until this time next year, after Powered Up ICE with billions in New Funding goes wild.

Case/Shiller came out last week. It was up a tiny bit from the prior month, which was up a tiny bit from the month before it. The previous 3 months were a tiny bit lower.

I wouldn't read too much into any projections for big moves in the national housing market next year. Fannie/Freddie and Zillow are forecasting a 1.5-1.9% increase in housing values nationwide for 2026.

There just ain't any volume. Less than 1% of residential properties were traded this last year. There's only about 2.1 million houses for sale. At $435k average house price, that's less than $1 trillion available. The stock market went up over $7 trillion this year in comparison.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPISA

https://rudy.substack.com/p/the-art-of-the-absurd

We have over 15 million vacant homes in this country - not abandoned, vacant - as well as three million seasonal properties that the census tracks. So what you have is a lot of second and third home ownership, as well as all of these mom and pop investors, and the institutional investors, but the mom and pops are much larger and everybody got in on this gig.

Lennar - if they don’t sell anything in a subdivision, they don’t have to mark to market. It only kicks in if they take a 10% loss on a subdivision - that’s when they have to do mark to market. Instead they use a model, and so I’ve seen so many subdivisions where there’s nobody in them. And so they haven’t even started to realize these losses. And I think that’s what you’re about to see happening.

There’s simply not enough housing or houses being built so unless they’re just building in the wrong areas, I just don’t see prices coming down in any significant fashion.

Patrick says

Lennar - if they don’t sell anything in a subdivision, they don’t have to mark to market. It only kicks in if they take a 10% loss on a subdivision

Lennar at its last all time high before the housing bubble burst in 2009 was around $57 a share in August 2005.

Now it is $119 down from its all time high of $173 in 2024.

Its only appreciated about 4.5% annually since August 2005.

.

Patrick says

We have over 15 million vacant homes in this country - not abandoned, vacant - as well as three million seasonal properties that the census tracks. So what you have is a lot of second and third home ownership, as well as all of these mom and pop investors, and the institutional investors, but the mom and pops are much larger and everybody got in on this gig.

Very true Patrick, out of 134.8 million U.S. households, the top 10% (13.5 million households) own about 18 million homes total (primary home, vacation home, home for their adult children, investment/rental property), reflecting both primary residences and multiple properties. This underscores how housing wealth is concentrated among affluent households, shaping affordability and availability for the rest of the population.

The top 10% of households hold at least 70% of U.S. wealth (and accounts for 50% of consumer spending), much of its wealth is in real estate.

Glock-n-Load says

There’s simply not enough housing or houses being built so unless they’re just building in the wrong areas, I just don’t see prices coming down in any significant fashion.

I see a lot of vacation housing and empty houses (second homes for top 10%) in Panama City and Panama City Beach. The top 10% own 18 million homes and account for 13.5 million households, so the extra housing they own is almost equivalent to the shortfall in needed housing.

Housing Shortage Estimates
• Zillow (2025): The U.S. housing deficit grew to 4.7 million units, even after a construction surge.
• Goldman Sachs (2025): At least 3–4 million additional homes beyond normal construction are needed to restore affordability.
• Harvard JCHS (2025): Confirms a systemic shortage, especially for low‑income renters, with affordability challenges spreading to middle‑income households.

So that proves my point. It’s not about the number of existing homes. It’s about the number of existing homes that are available for sale. Maybe I didn’t specify.

I think the tax code is FUBAR. It’s an unfair advantage imo.

AD says

Patrick says

Lennar - if they don’t sell anything in a subdivision, they don’t have to mark to market. It only kicks in if they take a 10% loss on a subdivision

Lennar at its last all time high before the housing bubble burst in 2009 was around $57 a share in August 2005.

Now it is $119 down from its all time high of $173 in 2024.

Its only appreciated about 4.5% annually since August 2005.

I think any losses by Lennar are more quality driven than market driven. They're already having a ton of warranty issues in my area and it's only an 80 home subdivision. Since it's basically right next door I can see what they're building. It's trash. Word is getting out.

I think that is the bigger problem. Shitty subs do shitty work. Homeowner A tells 50 of his friends he's not thrilled with his house. Those 50 friends then tell 50 of their friends. You now got 2,500 people, likely in or near the area that have a bad feeling about a Lennar home. They're looking for teachers and guys that work for the forest preserve or something, that know nothing about construction to buy them.

The new subdivision near me is priced in the $300-$350k range for base models. We're a 30 minute commute from blue class middle collar jobs for guys that can make $50-60k any direction the eye can see. Women can get some of those same jobs and/or be a teacher or nurse with little work to achieve in hindsight. It's not too hard to have a family making $100k by 25-28. That's who Lennar is looking for. They're not looking for the 40-60yr old established attorney. So they build like shit.

Next year the storm really hits:

* Rents already declining nationally.
* Rents will decline even more as stubborn sellers rent them out rather than settle for non-peak pricing ("Sticky Upwards")
* Declining rents insufficient to pay all/most of holding costs will finally get Primary Homeloaners to throw in the towel
* Deportation will amplify, and HUD/Sec8 paid landlords will also be hit on the lower ends.
* Apartment Complex owners, bigger companies, are already up the creek with vacancies and special free month offers.
* Continuing rate cuts will have little to no impact in reversing the inevitable market price discovery.

FreeAmericanDOP says

Next year the storm really hits:

* Rents already declining nationally.
* Rents will decline even more as stubborn sellers rent them out rather than settle for non-peak pricing ("Sticky Upwards")
* Declining rents insufficient to pay all/most of holding costs will finally get Primary Homeloaners to throw in the towel
* Deportation will amplify, and HUD/Sec8 paid landlords will also be hit on the lower ends.
* Apartment Complex owners, bigger companies, are already up the creek with vacancies and special free month offers.
* Continuing rate cuts will have little to no impact in reversing the inevitable market price discovery.

FreeAmericanDOP says

* Rents already declining nationally.

This is why RD Offutt likely stopped construction after clearing land for its +250 apartment unit called Hathaway Luxury Apartments in Panama City Beach Florida, as Panama City Beach townhome rental prices are at 2020 to 2021 price levels. Its like Panama City Beach is leading in regards to rent and home price decreases compared to national statistics.

Approximate Historical Multifamily Mortgage Delinquency or Distress Rates (1960–2025)
• 1960s–1970s: ~1–2% (stable, strong postwar demand).
• 1980s: Spikes to ~6–7% during the Savings & Loan crisis.
• 1990s: ~4–5% in early recession, falling to ~2% mid‑decade.
• 2008–2010: Peaks at ~8.5% during the Great Recession.
• 2015–2018: Historic lows ~1.5–2%.
• 2020: COVID disruption ~2.5%.
• 2024–2025: Sharp rise to ~13%, highest since Great Recession

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/real-estate/article-15365157/foreclosures-jump-mortgage-affordability-crisis.html

Foreclosures jump over 20% as Americans fall behind on mortgages amid affordability crisis

Glock-n-Load says

There’s simply not enough housing or houses being built so unless they’re just building in the wrong areas, I just don’t see prices coming down in any significant fashion.

Agreed.

zzyzzx says

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/real-estate/article-15365157/foreclosures-jump-mortgage-affordability-crisis.html

Foreclosures jump over 20% as Americans fall behind on mortgages amid affordability crisis

Only in the hipster coastal urban areas I am sure.

MolotovCocktail says

zzyzzx says

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/real-estate/article-15365157/foreclosures-jump-mortgage-affordability-crisis.html

Foreclosures jump over 20% as Americans fall behind on mortgages amid affordability crisis

Only in the hipster coastal urban areas I am sure.

Plenty here too in Idaho

Glock-n-Load says

"There’s simply not enough housing or houses being built so unless they’re just building in the wrong areas, I just don’t see prices coming down in any significant fashion.

Not true. The supply of houses in the market is low because we are dealing with a monopoly. Something like 90% plus of the houses in the USA are owned by six financial companies.

The_Deplorable says

Glock-n-Load says

"There’s simply not enough housing or houses being built so unless they’re just building in the wrong areas, I just don’t see prices coming down in any significant fashion.

Not true. The supply of houses in the market is low because we are dealing with a monopoly. Something like 90% plus of the houses in the USA are owned by six financial companies.

That is a misprint for sure. 90% of all houses are owned by 6 financial companies? What?

GNL says

"That is a misprint for sure. 90% of all houses are owned by 6 financial companies? What?"

Yes, we are dealing with a huge monopoly here.
Think about it: For the first time in our history, interest rates are going up and housing prices are not coming down.

The_Deplorable says

Not true. The supply of houses in the market is low because we are dealing with a monopoly. Something like 90% plus of the houses in the USA are owned by six financial companies.

That can't be right. Not even in hot markets. I think it's less than 5% by institutions (and another 5% by smaller, local companies NOT owned or managed by REITs or Funds) and that was COVID peak, they've unloaded quite a bit as the markets expected to "Go up forever" like Texas, Tennessee, and Florida are declining the fastest

The_Deplorable says

GNL says

"That is a misprint for sure. 90% of all houses are owned by 6 financial companies? What?"

Yes, we are dealing with a huge monopoly here.
Think about it: For the first time in our history, interest rates are going up and housing prices are not coming down.

“Managed” economy. Inflation is insane too. We are buying our own debt. Suicide.

Earlier I wrote: The supply of houses in the market is low because we are dealing
with a monopoly. Something like 90% plus of the houses in the USA are owned by
six financial companies.

FreeAmericanDOP says

"That can't be right...

Think of it this way. The housing bubble goes back about 20 years to Alan Greenspan
who deliberately kept interest rates low (based on the Fed minutes).
Greenspan was the Fed chairman at the time.

Approximately 2-4% of single-family homes in the USA are owned by large institutional investors or financial companies (typically defined as entities owning 100+ or 1,000+ properties, such as private equity firms, REITs like Invitation Homes, or major corporate landlords).This figure comes from multiple recent analyses as of 2024-2025:Institutional investors own about 3.8% of the nation's single-family rental properties (Urban Institute, Brookings, and related reports), and since single-family rentals make up roughly 15-18% of all single-family homes, this translates to under 1% of the total stock in some estimates—but focused on larger entities.
Very large investors (1,000+ homes) own around 2.2% of investor-held properties, which themselves comprise ~20% of the ~86 million single-family homes (BatchData and John Burns Research & Consulting reports from 2025).
Overall, large institutional ownership is consistently described as less than 2-4% nationally (Econofact, GAO, and Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies), though higher (up to 10-25%) in specific Sunbelt markets like Atlanta or Charlotte.

Broader "investors" (including small "mom-and-pop" landlords owning 1-10 properties) own about 20% of single-family homes, but these are mostly individuals, not financial companies.Claims of much higher corporate ownership (e.g., 20% by private equity) are debunked as misconceptions confusing total investor activity with large financial institutions. Investor purchases of new sales have risen (25-33% in 2025 quarters), but this is driven mostly by small buyers, and stock ownership changes slowly.

https://x.com/i/grok/share/yHd5zAyHJtLxroy0uI5dacvUR

The big shots have been dumping out of the hotter markets in the Sunbelt for over a year now (despite claims of local non-pro homeloaners and realtors, who are usually several quarters behind reality), selling off in small pieces, though now they are screwed in Tampa.

I'm no friend of big finance (needs to be cut down 3 pegs, not just one) but it's just the ordinary sticky upwards mentality of many Homeloaners. For all their bitchin, many of them didn't take advantage just a little of the greatest stock runup in history and really bet it all on the house appreciating several fold since 1993 to retire on.

Midwest Party, formerly hot markets wallow

At the current rate of 6.2% for conventional 30 year mortgage, prices need to come down at least 20% from peak prices set in 2022.

.......................

Homebuilder Lennar Cuts Prices by 10% as CEO Admits Buyers Face an ‘Affordability Crisis’

https://www.realtor.com/news/real-estate-news/lennar-earnings-price-cut-december-2025/

I like a 6.2% interest rate. Good and normal.

People are too habituated, too addicted, too mentally enslaved to too low interest rates, which creates a debt borrowing frenzy. 5-8% is the healthy range. It could be cut a bit for the reindustrialization, but not too much, either.

There is no rage quitter like a California equity snob quitter. I'm watching Santa Cruz with interest. A place three doors down in Santa Cruz, which is reasonably priced for what it is in California, hasn't sold for six months and it's staged very nicely.

All the above is evidence that the housing market is a monopoly...

Supply and demand does not exist...

"Why don't Americans save? You can always buy a CD here in low rate early 2010s and get a whopping 0.3% return. Doesn't that make you want to put your money to sleep for a year?"