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housing prices peak 2


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2022 Apr 29, 9:29pm   484,692 views  4,882 comments

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https://finance.yahoo.com/news/pimco-kiesel-called-housing-top-160339396.html?source=patrick.net

Bond manager Mark Kiesel sold his California home in 2006, when he presciently predicted the housing bubble would pop. He bought again in 2012, after U.S. prices fell more than 30% and found a floor.

Now, after a record surge in prices, Kiesel says the time to sell is once again at hand.

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359   gabbar   2022 Jul 16, 4:48am  

WookieMan says

Depending on your age, I'd avoid the condo. If you're older though and don't want to deal with maintenance, a condo might be better. Depends on any trades you might be handy in.

HOA's were one of the worst parts of a transaction and then you have no control unless you get on the board. Even then it's just one vote. If 4 people agree all the siding for example needs to be replaced, which they're likely unqualified to decide, you're likely to get a monthly increase in assessment that is out of your control.

I'd go the ranch route. More work if you're handy, but idle time is just as bad not doing anything yourself with a condo. Age is a factor in this though and where you're at in life. You also have more freedom. Depending on municipality, you have more freedom to add things to the property, etc. Also you're not sharing walls or floors with a neighbor that can change at any time. Are rentals allowed? Condos get complicated.

Basically I'd only do it if I was retired (60+) or if I was d...

Thank you. You are right, condos do have their disadvantages.
360   BayArea   2022 Jul 16, 6:33am  

My experience… in general

Don’t buy condo

Don’t buy into HOA
361   GNL   2022 Jul 16, 6:40am  

Idea:

Buy 2 properties. 1 in a winter vacation location and another in a summer vacation location. Airbnb the properties when you can get the most rent and live in the other. This coud be a great retirement solution for low living expenses.
362   1337irr   2022 Jul 16, 6:40am  

BayArea says

My experience… in general

Don’t buy condo

Don’t buy into HOA

That is some wise advise. If you have to buy into a HOA, be on the board.
363   GNL   2022 Jul 16, 6:41am  

HOAs eat shit. And most new developments have HOAs. Why?
364   BayArea   2022 Jul 16, 7:23am  

My first home at age 26 was a condo in the Oakland hills

In the 10yrs I owned the unit, there were 4 and 5 figure surprise HOA costs I could never imagine

There were annoying letters about someone spotting my car hood up briefly in the parking lot.

There were emergency assessments

There were years with 20% annual HOA hikes, maximum allowed by law at the time

Just don’t do it.
366   Booger   2022 Jul 16, 8:01am  

BayArea says

n the 10yrs I owned the unit, there were 4 and 5 figure surprise HOA costs I could never imagine

There were emergency assessments

There were years with 20% annual HOA hikes, maximum allowed by law at the time


Sounds like it's a poorly run condo association.
367   WookieMan   2022 Jul 16, 8:05am  

WineHorror1 says

HOAs eat shit. And most new developments have HOAs. Why?

I don't get single family HOA's. We'll have a small $40/mo for our single family but that's for parks and mowing. I have a zero turn and will do it for free. I'm in talks with our neighbor we know and might just build the park on our own on the corner lot no one wants (expensive, but whatever). Plus it would increase values in the long term and my lot then feels like 1.2 acres with a park 50-70' from my house. It's been a ghost subdivision (no houses) for over a decade.

Volunteer time goes a long way in a neighborhood. It would eliminate the fee aspect of it as the village would take care of streets and snow plowing. So hopefully could just dump the HOA outside of covenants and restrictions on building, which is generally in line with muni code.
368   Booger   2022 Jul 16, 8:09am  

I know someone who lives in a condo in California. He says that (((people))) think that if the roof doesn't leak while they are living there, that they don't have to pay anything towards eventual replacement of the roof. I had no idea that San Jose had so many Jews.
369   Booger   2022 Jul 16, 8:14am  

WineHorror1 says

most new developments have HOAs. Why?


Because FUCK YOU!!!

Might only be worth it if cheap and keeps out Airbnb.
371   Bd6r   2022 Jul 16, 8:24am  

WineHorror1 says

And most new developments have HOAs. Why?

Karens who can't tolerate any dissent and now have means to make everyone conform to their idiocy
372   Booger   2022 Jul 16, 8:25am  

This is from a realtor:

373   WookieMan   2022 Jul 16, 8:29am  

Booger says

I know someone who lives in a condo in California. He says that (((people))) think that if the roof doesn't leak while they are living there, that they don't have to pay anything towards eventual replacement of the roof. I had no idea that San Jose had so many Jews.

Reserves are probably the biggest thing on the balance sheet. Then it's the eye test to see if the place is being taken care of. If both seem in bad shape, run.

Generally there are 3 scenarios:

1 - High reserves and immaculate looking building(s) and grounds.
2 - High to medium reserves but a bit rough around the edges, but still looks decent.
3 - No reserves and it looks like a dumpster fire.

There are areas in-between for sure. Never ever go for a 3. Use extreme caution with a 2. Assuming no board turn over or drama, 1's are generally pretty safe. Assessment will likely be higher though.

There's value in HOA's for sure, but need to be careful. Where I live there generally is landscaping necessary. That's worth $200/mo alone, though you have less personal yard space (this is for townhome type developments). But then if you want a pool, a fence, kids swing set, etc. you're at the mercy of arbitrary rules you likely didn't have a chance to set or give feedback on. That's when the drama comes in.
375   WookieMan   2022 Jul 16, 8:40am  

Booger says

This is from a realtor:

I wrote shit like this all the time for marketing purposes for the brokers in the office. That's textbook Realtor talk. While I managed the office I still had a boss who was the sales type. I'd be too technical and analytical in our monthly newsletters and he'd have me change it to Realtor talk. I'm like whatever.

Part of the reason I left after a decade plus feeling like crap lying about the market. I wasn't sales, but it just made me feel dirty doing it. Made that guy a lot of money and he pissed it all away multiple times. He had ZERO financial responsibility. I couldn't deal with the instability and all the people involved in RE. You have to be an unethical dick to work in RE and I couldn't do it anymore.
376   GNL   2022 Jul 16, 8:51am  

Booger says


I know someone who lives in a condo in California. He says that (((people))) think that if the roof doesn't leak while they are living there, that they don't have to pay anything towards eventual replacement of the roof. I had no idea that San Jose had so many Jews.

Maybe these condo owners refused to pay condo fees.



377   clambo   2022 Jul 16, 8:52am  

I’m mystified by the people who call a house an investment.
378   Booger   2022 Jul 16, 9:22am  

https://www.reddit.com/r/RealEstate/comments/w035sc/question_for_realtorsthose_who_sold_their_home/

Is it normal to have no offers right after an open house (or during it)? We've always put offers in right away, and I was shocked to not get any. We had an open house on a weeknight and another will be on the weekend. My realtor said because both open house dates were posted when the house was listed, that people are smart to not offer anything until after the weekend open house is over.
379   Al_Sharpton_for_President   2022 Jul 16, 10:49am  

Realtor: Here is a nice resale, built in 2021. It's listed for $825,000.

Me: What did the current owners pay for it?

Realtor: $725,000.

Me: What did it list for?

Realtor: $630,000.

Me: So the current owners overbid $95,000, or 15%, on the home?

Realtor: Well, it was a competitive market, and they wanted the home.

Me: And now they want me to pay 14% more on top of that, after they lived in it for one year?

Realtor: Ummm.... Can you put your wife on the phone, please?
380   Booger   2022 Jul 16, 11:35am  

Al_Sharpton_for_President says

Realtor: Ummm.... Can you put your wife on the phone, please?


I also think that women are a good part of the reasoning behind the overbidding.
381   1337irr   2022 Jul 17, 7:51pm  

Looks like the backup plan on overpaying on a fix and flip house is to rent it out to cover the mortgage payment. The searches for "property manager" are bit elevated in states like California, Florida and New York. Texas, Colorado and Idaho doesn't seem too bad though. And Wyoming isn't a hot market surprisingly.




Thoughts?
382   pudil   2022 Jul 17, 8:39pm  

Are we having record inflation or not? Please explain how housing prices are going to drop while everything else is going up 10%+ yoy.
383   gabbar   2022 Jul 18, 5:14am  

Al_Sharpton_for_President says

Realtor: Here is a nice resale, built in 2021. It's listed for $825,000.

Me: What did the current owners pay for it?

Realtor: $725,000.

Me: What did it list for?

Realtor: $630,000.

Me: So the current owners overbid $95,000, or 15%, on the home?

Realtor: Well, it was a competitive market, and they wanted the home.

Me: And now they want me to pay 14% more on top of that, after they lived in it for one year?

Realtor: Ummm.... Can you put your wife on the phone, please?

The reason why I still haven't bought a home is this. I wanted a 1600 sft ranch home (more than enough for my small family). My wife wanted a larger colonial style home with a sunroom. We argued and fought. Yep, we still rent and are rather happy. We travel and have our kid's undergraduate education 100 percent covered.
384   1337irr   2022 Jul 18, 5:47am  

pudil says

Are we having record inflation or not? Please explain how housing prices are going to drop while everything else is going up 10%+ yoy.

It's a reversion to the mean. Austin will revert back to the mean increase.

Home values in Austin have increased by 29.4% over the last year. Over the past five years home values in Austin have increased by 99%. Median sales price for a home in Austin is $550,000 based on the most recent report from the Austin Board of Realtors.

The Austin market is the biggest market for flippers and the government/FED at the moment is not subsidizing them as much. Increasing interest rates, takes away the house price increases. 20% of all transactions in the last year were speculators.

"You cannot subsidize irresponsibility and expect people to become more responsible."
- Thomas Sowell

Does that make sense pudil?

I should note, I'm carrying a chip on my shoulder, I should've bought in Austin earlier. However, I did buy in the Waco-area.
385   gabbar   2022 Jul 18, 6:55am  

A few years back I talked to a mortgage loan officer. At that time we had more than 100k sitting in our checking account and it was in an increasing trend. She said the reason we have this cash in our account was because we live like students. That is, even after we graduated from school and got jobs, we continued to live like students.

What's the mortgage debt about? Is it about keeping the population running on an job treadmill? Is it about a method of preventing mass chaos? Is it about maintaining power status quo? We talk about freedom but seems to me the most important freedom is fiscal freedom.
386   gabbar   2022 Jul 18, 7:01am  

WookieMan says


You have to be an unethical dick to work in RE and I couldn't do it anymore.

I agree. Is this because agents work only on commission (no salary at all)? They don't eat if they don't kill. And they kill using any means necessary. An ethical real estate agent will soon leave real estate business. In fact, I met a young real estate agent who pretty much told me this.
387   Booger   2022 Jul 18, 8:02am  

pudil says

Are we having record inflation or not? Please explain how housing prices are going to drop while everything else is going up 10%+ yoy.


Housing prices are tied to wages, not inflation.
388   1337irr   2022 Jul 18, 8:05am  

Booger says

pudil says


Are we having record inflation or not? Please explain how housing prices are going to drop while everything else is going up 10%+ yoy.


Housing prices are tied to wages, not inflation.

I would also say house prices are strongly correlated to wages and net wealth.
389   GNL   2022 Jul 18, 10:24am  

gabbar says

A few years back I talked to a mortgage loan officer. At that time we had more than 100k sitting in our checking account and it was in an increasing trend. She said the reason we have this cash in our account was because we live like students. That is, even after we graduated from school and got jobs, we continued to live like students.

What's the mortgage debt about? Is it about keeping the population running on an job treadmill? Is it about a method of preventing mass chaos? Is it about maintaining power status quo? We talk about freedom but seems to me the most important freedom is fiscal freedom.

There is NO FREEDOM without economic freedom. Unpossible.
391   Al_Sharpton_for_President   2022 Jul 21, 9:44am  

Quick flip RIP.

Date Jul 21, 2022
Price Changed
Price $765,000

Date Jul 7, 2022
Price Changed
Price $775,000

Date Jun 16, 2022
Price Changed
Price $798,000

Date Jun 2, 2022
Price Changed
Price $820,000

Date May 19, 2022
Listed (Active)
Price $825,000

Date Oct 19, 2021
Sold (MLS) (Closed)
Price $389,000
392   1337irr   2022 Jul 21, 6:14pm  

Al_Sharpton_for_President says

Quick flip RIP.

Date Jul 21, 2022
Price Changed
Price $765,000

Date Jul 7, 2022
Price Changed
Price $775,000

Date Jun 16, 2022
Price Changed
Price $798,000

Date Jun 2, 2022
Price Changed
Price $820,000

Date May 19, 2022
Listed (Active)
Price $825,000

Date Oct 19, 2021
Sold (MLS) (Closed)
Price $389,000

How is it a RIP?
393   Al_Sharpton_for_President   2022 Jul 21, 7:34pm  

1337irr says

How is it a RIP?

Rhymed with flip. But I doubt if the fliiper put in 112% of the price of the purchase in upgrades when the flip was listed a scant 7 months after purchase, even accounting for a possible increase in average market price, which is no longer a given. Perhaps I should have listed this under the Pigotry post.
394   WookieMan   2022 Jul 22, 6:07am  

gabbar says


WookieMan says


You have to be an unethical dick to work in RE and I couldn't do it anymore.

I agree. Is this because agents work only on commission (no salary at all)? They don't eat if they don't kill. And they kill using any means necessary. An ethical real estate agent will soon leave real estate business. In fact, I met a young real estate agent who pretty much told me this.


I was salaried and didn't do the sales part myself. I was marketing, accounting, broker support, basic tech, etc. Basically managed the office and the overall business. Generally didn't deal with clients one on one outside of shooting photos or talking/texting them for showings.

Dealing with people that don't know when the next check is coming was miserable. I made solid money for my age, but there are way to many hands in the cookie jar in real estate. New agents rolling up in Tesla after I'd been doing ALL parts of the business for 10 years, I'd just start telling them to fuck off. I became a massive ass hole in the latter years I was there. I'd get in screaming matches with inspectors, attorneys, brokers, etc. Everyone in the industry waits until the last second and it then becomes a problem that was solvable weeks ago.

I also hate the brag part of brokers. "I sold $10M last year." You'd be lucky to walk with $100-120k net if you don't own the brokerage. Big fucking deal. To be wealthy as a broker today you'd need to sell $20M+ and own the brokerage. 80% of agents, even with higher prices are lucky to sell $2-5M, which is $50-70k/yr net. Hence the reason Realtors are so shady. It's a shitty living unless you're super social and click with everyone you meet and aren't a tool. That's all there really is to it. Sales 101.

Most people don't have it and flop when they get their license. Most brokers also cannot deal with emotions. You're kind of a therapist in guiding someone to the largest purchase in their lives with most transactions. It's why commercial RE is much more ideal. No emotions. Business deal. Numbers.
398   Bd6r   2022 Jul 22, 4:53pm  

Anecdotal: I parse har.com (TX RE listings) and look at land (40+ acres). Half a year ago, nearly everything that went up for sale was snatched up in days or weeks. Now there are much fewer pending sales.

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