16
3

housing prices peak 2


 invite response                
2022 Apr 29, 9:29pm   434,587 views  4,666 comments

by AD   ➕follow (1)   💰tip   ignore  

.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/pimco-kiesel-called-housing-top-160339396.html?source=patrick.net

Bond manager Mark Kiesel sold his California home in 2006, when he presciently predicted the housing bubble would pop. He bought again in 2012, after U.S. prices fell more than 30% and found a floor.

Now, after a record surge in prices, Kiesel says the time to sell is once again at hand.

« First        Comments 1,527 - 1,566 of 4,666       Last »     Search these comments

1527   zzyzzx   2022 Dec 16, 11:15am  

https://finance.yahoo.com/m/ac1718c7-a028-39c0-ad33-84fbfcb87377/15-years-ago-the-housing.html

15 Years Ago, the Housing Market Crashed Under Similar Circumstances
1528   EBGuy   2022 Dec 16, 2:51pm  

ad says


Redfin all time high was about $96 in early 2021. It may be a good bottom feed price now if you willing to hold it for at least 3 years.

Take this with a grain of salt as I'm not at expert at reading financials. Looks like they have $400+ million in cash on the balance sheet. They've been losing around $80 million a quarter, but have shutdown the iBuyer program so those losses should go down (EDIT:they actually showed a profit a couple of years ago before the iBuyer program started up). Currently (as of end of last quarter) they still had $300 million of inventory on the books (that is, homes Redfin had purchased through the iBuyer program, I believe). Not sure if they've been marked to market yet....
1529   EBGuy   2022 Dec 16, 3:46pm  

Now compare Redfin to Compass.
Compass lost $150+million last quarter and $100+million the previous quarter. They're down to $350+million in cash. It's not clear to me if there is a path to profitability for Compass. They've started to cut salaried staff. I suppose if they went under that could be a huge boon to Redfin...
1530   porkchopXpress   2022 Dec 16, 3:53pm  

I agree we’re in for some hurt but with remote work being so prevalent now, people lose jobs and get another remote job. They don’t have to move like the olden days. This is a massive difference in how the housing market will react to a recession
1531   porkchopXpress   2022 Dec 17, 6:10am  

cisTits says


Actuallly, the remote jobs are drying up. For now. Companies are imposing RTO orders starting next Q1/Q2 to impose both quiet layoffs and to use their office R/E they are stuck with.
I know there's some of that, but I haven't heard of RTO being on any mass scale. Do you have data to support your hypothesis?

https://www.theregister.com/2022/10/03/remote_work_real_estate_values/
1532   Ceffer   2022 Dec 17, 10:18am  

I do think RTO is happening to some extent. A tech executive I know from an adjoining hood in tri valley says he is going back to the office after almost two years remote.

Also, the 'Sunol-Grade-Ometer' aka the crowding of commute traffic on the Sunol Grade has been increasing, but still not quite like it used to be.
1533   Blue   2022 Dec 19, 5:37pm  

cisTits says

San Francisco & Silicon Valley Housing Markets Puke Huge Price Drops, as Startups, Crypto, Tech, Social Media Make Total Mess

In California overall, prices dropped year-over-year, as sales collapsed, supply more than doubled. No dear, this isn’t just a seasonal dip.

https://wolfstreet.com/2022/12/19/san-francisco-silicon-valley-housing-markets-puke-huge-price-drops-as-startups-crypto-tech-social-media-make-a-total-mess/

This is good news for now but I guess it’s temporary. Gov can’t pay these interests while still printing and borrowing. It will start its tantrum for zero interest rates soon, then all bets are off. Every shack in Death Valley starts with $1m no kidding.
1534   richwicks   2022 Dec 19, 5:52pm  

Blue says


cisTits says


San Francisco & Silicon Valley Housing Markets Puke Huge Price Drops, as Startups, Crypto, Tech, Social Media Make Total Mess

In California overall, prices dropped year-over-year, as sales collapsed, supply more than doubled. No dear, this isn’t just a seasonal dip.

https://wolfstreet.com/2022/12/19/san-francisco-silicon-valley-housing-markets-puke-huge-price-drops-as-startups-crypto-tech-social-media-make-a-total-mess/

This is good news for now but I guess it’s temporary. Gov can’t pay these interests while still printing and borrowing. It will start its tantrum for zero interest rates soon, then all bets are off. Every shack in Death Valley starts with $1m no kidding.



Nope. You're not.

I'm telling everybody, and I've said it many times before, silly con valley is the next Detroit.

What does the public want? Do you need a faster processor? Not satisfied that your PHONE literally beats the shit out of a super computer from 1990? Is a 256GB $30 memory card too small? Too expensive? You can only store 2 years of music on it, and more than 10 times more books than you could read if you lived 100 and was born being able to read. You can only store 1 month of films in quality suitable to display in a movie theater - every major film that is released in a year in all theaters in all the United States? That not enough??

What do you need? A faster Internet? Too troublesome that it takes 10 minutes to download an entire operating system or a film? Video games not realistic enough? Need a higher resolution display? We already make displays that have more pixels than your eye has receptors.

All you MIGHT want is a greater ability to access information, and it's not going to come from here. Intelligence agencies infest this place, but it will come.
1535   AD   2022 Dec 19, 10:44pm  

Blue says

The PE is less than 5 for the most home builders. Interestingly, most stocks are on the raise from 2022-Nov.


Yes, as the E of P/E is based on last 12 months and housing stocks were red hot during that period. Expect P/E to skyrocket for housing stocks if not go negative due to negative earnings (E).

Housing stocks like DR Horton and ETF's like iShares US Home Construction need to return to early 2020 levels or at least be no more than 10% above early 2020 levels based on the next 12 months economic activity and to return to fair value.
1536   AmericanKulak   2022 Dec 19, 11:35pm  

There's absolutely no reason why firms have to be in SFBA.

Detroit, Pittsburgh, etc. were where they were due to easy transport of steel, iron, coal, etc. There's no reason for a company whose business is entirely on the internet to be in SFBA.

There's nothing Twitter is doing that can't be done in Hoboken or Tulsa.

"But the people". Elon laid off what, 3/4 of the workforce and Twitter is running faster and with more quality improvements than ever just a few weeks later. Car Manufacturers had no problem leaving for Tennessee or Mexico, so long as they had good transport networks, but it did take a few years. A tech company can move cheaper and faster than that, any schmuck can get on a plane and rent a furnished apartment somewhere until their furniture arrives or they buy new shit.

"Everybody wants a farm in Sicily! It's the Breadbasket of the Med!" - 500BC to ~1850AD. Now they can't give them away. ( Timed right with the implementation of large scale rail traffic then naval bulk transport didn't matter?)
1537   1337irr   2022 Dec 20, 12:01am  

AmericanKulak says

There's absolutely no reason why firms have to be in SFBA.

Detroit, Pittsburgh, etc. were where they were due to easy transport of steel, iron, coal, etc. There's no reason for a company whose business is entirely on the internet to be in SFBA.

There's nothing Twitter is doing that can't be done in Hoboken or Tulsa.

"But the people". Elon laid off what, 3/4 of the workforce and Twitter is running faster and with more quality improvements than ever just a few weeks later. Car Manufacturers had no problem leaving for Tennessee or Mexico, so long as they had good transport networks, but it did take a few years. A tech company can move cheaper and faster than that, any schmuck can get on a plane and rent a furnished apartment somewhere until their furniture arrives or they buy new shit.

"Everybody wants a farm in Sicily! It's the Breadbasket of the Med!" - 500BC to ~1850AD. Now they can't give them away. ( Timed right with the implementation o...

You are right. The talent will exit, the capital will slowly leave. The Bay Area is a network city with staying power for a while.
1538   GNL   2022 Dec 20, 6:35pm  

cisTits says

richwicks says


I'm telling everybody, and I've said it many times before, silly con valley is the next Detroit.


I've been saying that for years as well.

High tech Detroit.

So, you've been wrong for years? How much longer until it becomes Detroit-afied?
1539   B.A.C.A.H.   2022 Dec 21, 9:11am  

I grew up in SJ and it's the only place I've lived.

I head the Detroit Talk over and over:

- Aerospace layoffs when Apollo Space Program and Vietnam Military Spending Winding Down;
- Semiconductor and hard drive fab closures with factories shifting elsewhere;
- Midsize computer companies obsolescence (Amdahl, Sun, etc);
- Dot Com meltdown;

Now they're saying about outfits like Google and social media.

I hope they're right. We need a Detroit-scale drop in the population, congestion and housing costs to make life less miserable here.

Those types of declines would set us back to where we were 3 or so decades ago in terms of congestion and housing costs. Make life more livable here for everyone who's not a Hipster-Tech-Elite.
1540   Ceffer   2022 Dec 21, 9:15am  

SiCoValley is where fifth dimensional warfare against the people is being perfected. It is a war industry place. The Globalist psychopaths have their back teeth clamped onto it to produce their unassailable technologic slavery machinery. There are too many assets around here for them to abandon easily. It is identified as a locus of our world miseries along with the Vatican, City of London, Switzerland, and the foreign occupied foreign city state of Washington DC, Mockingbird Hollywood, and to some extent, NYC where the shadow government provides government media theater.

Besides, they have the Garden of Eden wine countries and oceans and nice weather and amenities to swan about in in their Lambos while they contemplate how to crush and dismember the populace and the Republic.

I knew a Swedish billionaire scion in the day who moved here to swan about. He just had to buy a winery and purchase rare books to fit in with all the other rich swans. He died of an overdose in his fifties. Its a place where the rich come to peacock for each other.
1541   PeopleUnited   2022 Dec 21, 9:26am  

Star fleet command of the United Federation of Planets is based out of San Fran so we know that real estate in the Bay Area will only increase in value as the centuries roll on.
1542   Ceffer   2022 Dec 21, 9:44am  

Sand Hill Road=DARPA Hill Road Fiat money, BIS money, etc. etc. You really think a bunch of precocious little figurehead bitches placed at the helms invented all this stuff by themselves? They were given the franchises only after they were developed because they are undercover dynastic spawns.
1543   richwicks   2022 Dec 21, 1:08pm  

GNL says

cisTits says


richwicks says



I'm telling everybody, and I've said it many times before, silly con valley is the next Detroit.


I've been saying that for years as well.

High tech Detroit.


So, you've been wrong for years? How much longer until it becomes Detroit-afied?


It's going that way now.

This area has been coasting for 20 years. If Biden wasn't installed, this state would be fucked but Biden bailed it out. Fucked either way, with the purchase of Twatter by Musk, it's been exposed that a great deal of "high tech" is nothing more than government bullshit.
1544   zzyzzx   2022 Dec 22, 12:31pm  

Offerpad to get delisted from NYSE?

https://www.inman.com/2022/11/21/nyse-threatens-to-boot-offerpad-over-plummeting-share-price/

Offerpad's stock slipped below $1 per share in late October, positioning the iBuyer to be delisted from the New York Stock Exchange, which could make it more difficult to buy and sell shares
1545   Eman   2022 Dec 22, 4:19pm  

zzyzzx says

Offerpad to get delisted from NYSE?

https://www.inman.com/2022/11/21/nyse-threatens-to-boot-offerpad-over-plummeting-share-price/

Offerpad's stock slipped below $1 per share in late October, positioning the iBuyer to be delisted from the New York Stock Exchange, which could make it more difficult to buy and sell shares

Just do a reverse share split. It’s a non-issue. Not sure why it’s even news.
1546   AD   2022 Dec 22, 10:16pm  

zzyzzx says

Offerpad to get delisted from NYSE?


IPO for Offerpad back in December 2020 at $10

That would be a short life for it as a public company. No surprise as its a real estate services company so many of them will go bankrupt.

https://golden.com/wiki/Offerpad-8AVJ6G6

.
1552   ForcedTQ   2022 Dec 29, 2:27pm  

How will the boomer retirement wave permanently increase interest rates? Just asking as I have not pondered it before.
1553   GNL   2022 Dec 29, 6:13pm  

cisTits says

massive retirement of Boomers over the next ten years -- that will permanently raise interest rates all over across the board.

Why would retiring boomers cause higher rates "all across the board"?
1554   mell   2023 Jan 1, 9:42am  

Valuation just reached an all time high. Houses in the area don't sell crazy fast anymore, but they still sell fast, usually around listing price. Don't see any housing downturn in rural CA. Plenty of boomfucks with money shopping.
1555   Onvacation   2023 Jan 1, 4:10pm  

cisTits says

They have inverted demographic pyramids while ours is mostly shaped like a column.

Mother fuckers are trying to turn it into a cone.
1556   mell   2023 Jan 2, 8:44am  

cisTits says


GNL says


Why would retiring boomers cause higher rates "all across the board"?


Because retirees go from being net investors to net consumers (but not like their younger years). You are in your peak earning years (50s) you sock away large amounts of money for retirement. Then you pay nothing and start taking out. Plus, we are going to have skilled labor shortages for another 10 years or so.

This is why most of Europe and Asia are demographically fucked. They have inverted demographic pyramids while ours is mostly shaped like a column.


Agreed but until the bumfuck woke millennials are at current boomfuck age there won't be a sharp downturn. Boomers (more so) and Gen X have plenty of money to spend from the fat tech years.
1557   porkchopXpress   2023 Jan 2, 7:12pm  

Onvacation says

cisTits says


They have inverted demographic pyramids while ours is mostly shaped like a column.

Mother fuckers are trying to turn it into a cone.
I'd say it's more of a rhombus
1559   zzyzzx   2023 Jan 6, 5:52am  

https://www.bizjournals.com/seattle/news/2023/01/05/zillow-seattle-housing-freeze.html

Housing market enters 'deep freeze,' as half of all homes sell below list price in Seattle
1561   WookieMan   2023 Jan 6, 6:49am  

zzyzzx says

https://www.bizjournals.com/seattle/news/2023/01/05/zillow-seattle-housing-freeze.html

Housing market enters 'deep freeze,' as half of all homes sell below list price in Seattle

Seattle is a shit hole in my opinion. Love Washington, not Seattle or Tacoma though. Not sure who would be dumb enough to buy in Seattle after morons took over blocks of the city. Copious amounts of homeless by my standards.
1562   1337irr   2023 Jan 6, 6:53am  

WookieMan says

zzyzzx says


https://www.bizjournals.com/seattle/news/2023/01/05/zillow-seattle-housing-freeze.html

Housing market enters 'deep freeze,' as half of all homes sell below list price in Seattle

Seattle is a shit hole in my opinion. Love Washington, not Seattle or Tacoma though. Not sure who would be dumb enough to buy in Seattle after morons took over blocks of the city. Copious amounts of homeless by my standards.

Not a Mariner fan are you, WookieMan?
1565   zzyzzx   2023 Jan 6, 7:40am  

Yet still another indication of a bubble:
https://www.reddit.com/r/RealEstate/comments/10434wr/is_there_a_website_to_find_cheap_homes_where_a/

is there a website to find cheap homes where a murder happened?
1566   zzyzzx   2023 Jan 6, 7:59am  

https://www.businessinsider.com/homeowners-sue-real-estate-brokers-hoping-to-recoup-lost-home-value-2023-1

An increasing number of lawsuits are being filed against real estate agents as home prices continue to fall across the US

« First        Comments 1,527 - 1,566 of 4,666       Last »     Search these comments

Please register to comment:

api   best comments   contact   latest images   memes   one year ago   random   suggestions