Comments 1 - 22 of 22 Search these comments
2
GNL
2022 Jan 11, 6:58am
GNL
2022 Jan 11, 6:58am
What does it say about an economy when a 1/4 percent interest rate hike is "scary"?
3
Blue
2022 Jan 11, 8:14am
The endless money printing never bring interest rates back to normal that would count inflation unless we are near reset.
4
Tenpoundbass
2022 Jan 11, 8:37am
Tenpoundbass
2022 Jan 11, 8:37am
I got my Mortgage rate down to zero.
Paid the fucker off, all you have to do is send double your principal, the mortgage will melt away in 5 years time.
We're still getting robo calls, promising to lower our mortgage rate.
Paid the fucker off, all you have to do is send double your principal, the mortgage will melt away in 5 years time.
We're still getting robo calls, promising to lower our mortgage rate.
6
Patrick
2022 Jan 11, 10:50am
Patrick
2022 Jan 11, 10:50am
It will be interesting to see what happens to California real estate prices if interest rates go up significantly and the exodus from CA continues.
7
fdhfoiehfeoi
2022 Jan 11, 11:01am
fdhfoiehfeoi
2022 Jan 11, 11:01am
Both will happen, but these are just symptoms of the bigger fiat created crisis the world economy is facing. Any major shifts will be byproducts of the largest economic crash in human history, which I said at the start of covid would happen sometime in the next three years. Guess what year we're about to enter?
8
Ceffer
2022 Jan 11, 11:34am
Ceffer
2022 Jan 11, 11:34am
Does this mean my precious crap shack will drop in paper value? Horrors!
9
B.A.C.A.H.
2022 Jan 11, 11:55am
B.A.C.A.H.
2022 Jan 11, 11:55am
Ceffer says
I wish you no ill will, but I hope that mine in SJ will.
The high prices have made life miserable here for many folks.
Does this mean my precious crap shack will drop in paper value? Horrors
I wish you no ill will, but I hope that mine in SJ will.
The high prices have made life miserable here for many folks.
10
Tenpoundbass
2022 Jan 11, 2:26pm
Tenpoundbass
2022 Jan 11, 2:26pm
B.A.C.A.H. says
I wouldn't mind a bit if the value of RE cratered so hard, that my house was only worth $69K. I didn't buy it for wealth, I bought it to live in. So the house is priceless if I have no interest to sell it. Worth $500K or 2 cents makes no difference to me. But I if the value of my house was inline with the Historical norm before the 2000's bubble. It would only be worth about $120 to $150K on the very high end. And most folks think they live in a Jumbo Loan domicile, their house shouldn't be worth a penny over $250K.
I would like to buy more real estate one day, land in some country acreage somewhere. And keep this house in the family. I would also like to rest easy that the tax situation isn't going to chase out of control manipulated inflation out my affordability. Especially if I have several homesteads going at the same time.
I wish you no ill will, but I hope that mine in SJ will.
The high prices have made life miserable here for many folks.
I wouldn't mind a bit if the value of RE cratered so hard, that my house was only worth $69K. I didn't buy it for wealth, I bought it to live in. So the house is priceless if I have no interest to sell it. Worth $500K or 2 cents makes no difference to me. But I if the value of my house was inline with the Historical norm before the 2000's bubble. It would only be worth about $120 to $150K on the very high end. And most folks think they live in a Jumbo Loan domicile, their house shouldn't be worth a penny over $250K.
I would like to buy more real estate one day, land in some country acreage somewhere. And keep this house in the family. I would also like to rest easy that the tax situation isn't going to chase out of control manipulated inflation out my affordability. Especially if I have several homesteads going at the same time.
11
RC2006
2022 Jan 11, 2:57pm
RC2006
2022 Jan 11, 2:57pm
Tenpoundbass says
I always figure the real house price is 1999 price plus inflation.
Historical norm before the 2000's bubble.
I always figure the real house price is 1999 price plus inflation.
12
🎂
stereotomy
2022 Jan 11, 2:59pm
stereotomy
2022 Jan 11, 2:59pm
I want to see 10% mortage rates like we had in the early 1980's. Back when a decent house was $40-60K. For all of us who actually have liquid assets, I say let the interest rates go sky high; we have our gold and can pay cash for assets.
Houses today are like cars - people buy the payment, not the list price. At 10% the list price crashes, but the payment is brutal.
Houses today are like cars - people buy the payment, not the list price. At 10% the list price crashes, but the payment is brutal.
13
FortWayneHatesRealtors
2022 Jan 11, 3:30pm
Tenpoundbass says
That would lower my property taxes to my neighbors level lol. They are all paying 1950s rates still.
B.A.C.A.H. saysI wish you no ill will, but I hope that mine in SJ will.
The high prices have made life miserable here for many folks.
I wouldn't mind a bit if the value of RE cratered so hard, that my house was only worth $69K. I didn't buy it for wealth, I bought it to live in. So the house is priceless if I have no interest to sell it. Worth $500K or 2 cents makes no difference to me. But I if the value of my house was inline with the Historical norm before the 2000's bubble. It would only be worth about $120 to $150K on the very high end. And most folks think they live in a Jumbo Loan domicile, their house shouldn't be worth a penny over $250K.
I would like to buy more real estate one day, land in some country acreage somewhere. And keep this house in the family. I would also like to rest easy that the tax situation isn't going to chase out of control manipulated inflation out ...
That would lower my property taxes to my neighbors level lol. They are all paying 1950s rates still.
14
EBGuy
2022 Jan 11, 3:51pm
The venture capital air drops into the Ess Eff Bay Area continue. A lot of that money goes into salaries and that then goes into housing. Instead of slowing down, it appears to be accelerating...
Bay Area companies have raised nearly $88 billion so far in 2021, and that total appears to be well on its way to hitting $100 billion before the end of the year. That a tally the region has never hit before; last year, Bay Area startups raised a combined $62 billion.
So called "megadeals" — funding rounds of at least $100 million — played a big role in the Bay Area hitting its record fundraising total last quarter. The region's startups scored 76 such deals in the period. Those investments were worth a combined $18.1 billion, or more than half the total funding Bay Area companies raised in the third quarter.
Bay Area companies have raised nearly $88 billion so far in 2021, and that total appears to be well on its way to hitting $100 billion before the end of the year. That a tally the region has never hit before; last year, Bay Area startups raised a combined $62 billion.
So called "megadeals" — funding rounds of at least $100 million — played a big role in the Bay Area hitting its record fundraising total last quarter. The region's startups scored 76 such deals in the period. Those investments were worth a combined $18.1 billion, or more than half the total funding Bay Area companies raised in the third quarter.
15
Booger
2022 Jan 11, 3:55pm
Booger
2022 Jan 11, 3:55pm
RC2006 says
So the real price is a 2019 price?
always figure the real house price is 1999 price plus inflation.
So the real price is a 2019 price?
16
RC2006
2022 Jan 11, 8:51pm
RC2006
2022 Jan 11, 8:51pm
Booger says
That's what I went by to decide my first house I got within 40k of that amount it put me close to bottom of last house crash.
RC2006 saysalways figure the real house price is 1999 price plus inflation.
So the real price is a 2019 price?
That's what I went by to decide my first house I got within 40k of that amount it put me close to bottom of last house crash.
17
fdhfoiehfeoi
2022 Jan 12, 9:20am
fdhfoiehfeoi
2022 Jan 12, 9:20am
Booger says
If you want to adjust for inflation, you have to go back to the start of our current fiat currency, since all fiat currencies are created for the sole purpose of inflation/dishonest economics. Conservatively that would decrease the value of today's homes by 28. So a $500,000 home is really worth about $178k.
https://www.in2013dollars.com/us/inflation/1913?amount=1&source=patrick.net
always figure the real house price is 1999 price plus inflation.
So the real price is a 2019 price?
If you want to adjust for inflation, you have to go back to the start of our current fiat currency, since all fiat currencies are created for the sole purpose of inflation/dishonest economics. Conservatively that would decrease the value of today's homes by 28. So a $500,000 home is really worth about $178k.
https://www.in2013dollars.com/us/inflation/1913?amount=1&source=patrick.net
19
Bitcoin
2022 Jan 14, 6:44pm
Bitcoin
2022 Jan 14, 6:44pm
Tenpoundbass says
Lumber prices just spiked again. Labor continues to go higher and higher.
There are housing shortages in many metro areas. Inflation is usually your friend if you own RE.
The builder I just purchased from sent notifications that prices will significantly increase in each phase due to higher lumber costs and other material increases. If the cost for new construction goes up the existing house prices pull higher as well. Add to that a completely broken supply chain. New builds take longer due to shortages and delays. By the time the construction has finished the house has already appreciated 10-15%. Its a crazy time and there are ways to profit off of it......
I will just keep playing the game by investing in stocks, RE and crypto.....Lets go Brandon!
I wouldn't mind a bit if the value of RE cratered so hard, that my house was only worth $69K.
Lumber prices just spiked again. Labor continues to go higher and higher.
There are housing shortages in many metro areas. Inflation is usually your friend if you own RE.
The builder I just purchased from sent notifications that prices will significantly increase in each phase due to higher lumber costs and other material increases. If the cost for new construction goes up the existing house prices pull higher as well. Add to that a completely broken supply chain. New builds take longer due to shortages and delays. By the time the construction has finished the house has already appreciated 10-15%. Its a crazy time and there are ways to profit off of it......
I will just keep playing the game by investing in stocks, RE and crypto.....Lets go Brandon!
20
richwicks
2022 Jan 14, 9:44pm
richwicks
2022 Jan 14, 9:44pm
Patrick says
We saw this before. Banks will just sit on the properties, pay no property tax, and wait for inflation to balance their books. Even if the house rots into the ground, and it's just an empty lot, it will not sell until the bank regains their principle.
Banks never lose. They own the country.
I can see interest rates going up, people losing their houses because they are on an ARM mortgage, and having to walk away, or allowed to live "for free" in their own house, or at a lower rental rate.
The entire system is a scam.
We will own nothing and be happy. Well.. That's 1/2 right. We will own nothing anyhow. Protests don't mean anything, the government will blame capitalism to get people to demand "a change"
That's my prediction anyhow. We'll see.
It will be interesting to see what happens to California real estate prices if interest rates go up significantly and the exodus from CA continues.
We saw this before. Banks will just sit on the properties, pay no property tax, and wait for inflation to balance their books. Even if the house rots into the ground, and it's just an empty lot, it will not sell until the bank regains their principle.
Banks never lose. They own the country.
I can see interest rates going up, people losing their houses because they are on an ARM mortgage, and having to walk away, or allowed to live "for free" in their own house, or at a lower rental rate.
The entire system is a scam.
We will own nothing and be happy. Well.. That's 1/2 right. We will own nothing anyhow. Protests don't mean anything, the government will blame capitalism to get people to demand "a change"
That's my prediction anyhow. We'll see.
21
Bitcoin
2022 Jan 15, 5:44am
Bitcoin
2022 Jan 15, 5:44am
richwicks says
There are ways to make money in every type of market. In the US we have opportunities....I am the glass is half full type of guy. I lived abroad for years and value what we have here in the US. The key to success is to build a foundation for passive income and a long term investment strategy. Being negative and blaming the bad banks doesnt get you anywhere.
Btw, ARM mortgages are not a thing anymore....virtually nobody has them anymore. In today's market, if you cant afford the house payment you just sell the house and move on with a massive equity gain.
We will own nothing anyhow.
There are ways to make money in every type of market. In the US we have opportunities....I am the glass is half full type of guy. I lived abroad for years and value what we have here in the US. The key to success is to build a foundation for passive income and a long term investment strategy. Being negative and blaming the bad banks doesnt get you anywhere.
Btw, ARM mortgages are not a thing anymore....virtually nobody has them anymore. In today's market, if you cant afford the house payment you just sell the house and move on with a massive equity gain.
22
Bd6r
2022 Jan 15, 1:14pm
Bd6r
2022 Jan 15, 1:14pm
NuttBoxer says
It's much worse than that. One could buy an acre of productive land in rural TX for $300 as recently as 1980's. Now it costs 7000-10000 per acre, depending on parcel size. And you don't get much of mineral rights.
If you want to adjust for inflation, you have to go back to the start of our current fiat currency, since all fiat currencies are created for the sole purpose of inflation/dishonest economics. Conservatively that would decrease the value of today's homes by 28. So a $500,000 home is really worth about $178k.
It's much worse than that. One could buy an acre of productive land in rural TX for $300 as recently as 1980's. Now it costs 7000-10000 per acre, depending on parcel size. And you don't get much of mineral rights.
There are several ways to reconcile the market movement underlying the rate spike. The Fed is the easiest target as last week's "minutes" suggested a faster timeline for balance sheet normalization.
Those are fancy words that mean the Fed will be decreasing its rate-friendly bond purchases sooner/faster than previously expected.
Other explanations include the notion that omicron could substantially hasten the endemic phase of covid. Finally, bond market supply has been elevated over the past 2 weeks, and higher supply means higher rates, all other things being equal.
With any move as abrupt as this, there's always a chance that technical factors will help push back in the other direction. Simply put, traders will eventually have sold enough bonds that the new, lower prices (and higher yields) are attractive enough to bring buyers back into the market. There's no telling exactly when that will happen or how much of a recovery it could induce--only that it becomes more likely the higher rates go.
On a housekeeping note, if you missed last week's commentary on the 3.22% figure in Freddie Mac's rate survey being WAY too low to reflect the end-of-week reality, it's worth getting caught up (and then realizing that rates have only continued to move higher since then). Or just take a look at the chart!
https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-01102022?source=patrick.net