patrick.net

SunnyvaleCA says

When SF declares itself a not "sanctuary city" and starts handing over hardened criminals to the federal government, I'll concede that the place at least has the possibility of improvement. I can't understand how a city doesn't jump at the opportunity to have the federal government (on the federal dime) remove convicted criminals.

I agree.

For me personally, I'll consider San Francisco after they put Columbus back in his rightful place on Telegraph Hill.

B.A.C.A.H. says

farmer2021 says

275k(Investment) -> 1425k(Gain-100K selling cost) -> 11 years.
~16% return every year.
(It will reach higher when you add $500k return has no tax for high income family)

farmer,

the return is a negative cash flow every year, till they sell and realize the gain.

Do you live in the region? Just asking.

Not true. You can refinance or take money out as long as your income can support the mortgage.

Bottom line is at some point this is going to get as expensive as in Asian cities.(multiplier of income).
SF is still nowhere near Asian cities.
Price-to-income
------------------
San Francisco : 7.9
Shenzhen, China 46.28 ( Lot of other ASIAN cities).
Delhi, India 17.79
Dallas, TX, United States 2.35
https://www.numbeo.com/property-investment/rankings.jsp

Look at gross rental yield.
Shenzen: 1.31
sf : 5.07
Dallas : 11.62

Add to that evicting tenets in Asian cities is 100x harder than very bad US city SF... so mostly have "0" rental yield for second homes.
...

High housing prices is biggest evil against working class.

Patrick says

farmer2021 says

Here is the calculation:

This is quite convenient:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2014/upshot/buy-rent-calculator.html

Pretty much ends the debate for me. Just plug in the numbers. Of course you have to put a value on not having to move when the lease is up too.

Try 16%(only allowed 15% growth housing prices) .. You will see How renting goes out of water.
Buying is better, even if you could rent for free.
Rent needs to be -$12,044 per month.

This is the evil with housing today.

Patrick says

SunnyvaleCA says

When SF declares itself a not "sanctuary city" and starts handing over hardened criminals to the federal government, I'll concede that the place at least has the possibility of improvement. I can't understand how a city doesn't jump at the opportunity to have the federal government (on the federal dime) remove convicted criminals.

I agree.

For me personally, I'll consider San Francisco after they put Columbus back in his rightful place on Telegraph Hill.

Do you know what was the last straw before they brought Guiliani to clean up NY?
People are goingt o get fed up of illogical woke behavior too. In the end as long as you have freedom, "centrist" win in long term.
If communism or fascism takes over, all bets are off.

farmer2021 says

Patrick says

farmer2021 says

Here is the calculation:

This is quite convenient:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2014/upshot/buy-rent-calculator.html

Pretty much ends the debate for me. Just plug in the numbers. Of course you have to put a value on not having to move when the lease is up too.

Try 16%(only allowed 15% growth housing prices) .. You will see How renting goes out of water.
Buying is better, even if you could rent for free.
Rent needs to be -$12,044 per month.

This is the evil with housing today.

There are plenty of repairs for a house. Roof can be 20k-30k or more, crawlspace 5k-10k, drainage, plumbing etc. etc. Can't just do the math like this. It depends on the situation.

farmer2021 says

Not true. You can refinance or take money out as long as your income can support the mortgage.

That is hilarious. Calling taking money out, increasing the amount of debt, as positive cash flow. This is like the fed using printed money for the US government to dole out. The government can coerce folks to pay taxes, or the fed can tap Greater Fools in the bond market to keep the gig going for awhile. But homeowners, be they techie homeowners or landlords, have no such powers of persuasion or coercion over their salaries, or the rent they collect. (My understanding is renters have some protections now so they don't even have to pay). Renters can just leave, like Patrick and millions of others in California are contemplating.

I understand your point about Asia. We are in the United States, homie, not Hong Kong, not Bangalore. The United States does not end at Altamont Pass. So many folks who immigrated to here from all over the world got some screwy idea that they are tapped into our psyche from their narrow perspective of being in immigrant enclaves like the Bay Area or Vancouver or whatever. They are clueless.

I'd say, good for that homeowner who owned for 12 years at negative cash flow, paying Property Tax through the nose, and was able to cash out to a Greater Fool. For the time being that Greater Fool will be contributing to our Civil Servant Pensions in even huger amounts than the Lesser Fool he bought from, with the new assessment. Party On!

mell says

farmer2021 says

Patrick says

farmer2021 says

Here is the calculation:

This is quite convenient:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2014/upshot/buy-rent-calculator.html

Pretty much ends the debate for me. Just plug in the numbers. Of course you have to put a value on not having to move when the lease is up too.

Try 16%(only allowed 15% growth housing prices) .. You will see How renting goes out of water.
Buying is better, even if you could rent for free.
Rent needs to be -$12,044 per month.

This is the evil with housing today.

There are plenty of repairs for a house....

The house in example will need less than 10k a year repairs.

B.A.C.A.H. says

farmer2021 says

Not true. You can refinance or take money out as long as your income can support the mortgage.

That is hilarious. Calling taking money out, increasing the amount of debt, as positive cash flow. This is like the fed using printed money for the US government to dole out. The government can coerce folks to pay taxes, or the fed can tap Greater Fools in the bond market to keep the gig going for awhile. But homeowners, be they techie homeowners or landlords, have no such powers of persuasion or coercion over their salaries, or the rent they collect. (My understanding is renters have some protections now so they don't even have to pay). Renters can just leave, like Patrick and millions of others in California are contemplating.

I understand your point about Asia. We are in the United States, homie, not Hong Kong, not Bangalore. The United States does not end at Altamont...

Try visiting a open house these days in bay area.
They will ask for all kinds of pre-approval and house will sell before you get scheduled.

I don't know who are these people buying, But It is reality and been like this for last few years accelerated by COVID.
https://www.sfgate.com/realestate/article/2021-04-Santa-Clara-camping-overnight-townhome-16127719.php
Dozens camp overnight for chance to buy $1.2 million Bay Area townhouses

We can't wish away the reality, The Fed is scheming against people.

farmer2021 says

Try visiting a open house these days in bay area.
They will ask for all kinds of pre-approval and house will sell before you get scheduled.

I don't know who are these people buying, But It is reality and been like this for last few years accelerated by COVID.
https://www.sfgate.com/realestate/article/2021-04-Santa-Clara-camping-overnight-townhome-16127719.php
Dozens camp overnight for chance to buy $1.2 million Bay Area townhouses

Yawn.

The US does not end at Altamont Pass. Many might argue though, that it begins at Altamont Pass.

Who sets the sales prices of homes (and nearly every other asset)? The sellers? The ®ealtors? Of course not. It's the buyers. What is evil about that?

B.A.C.A.H. says

farmer2021 says

Try visiting a open house these days in bay area.
They will ask for all kinds of pre-approval and house will sell before you get scheduled.

I don't know who are these people buying, But It is reality and been like this for last few years accelerated by COVID.
https://www.sfgate.com/realestate/article/2021-04-Santa-Clara-camping-overnight-townhome-16127719.php
Dozens camp overnight for chance to buy $1.2 million Bay Area townhouses

Yawn.

The US does not end at Altamont Pass. Many might argue though, that it begins at Altamont Pass.

Who sets the sales prices of homes (and nearly every other asset)? The sellers? The ®ealtors? Of course not. It's the buyers. What is evil about that?

No the prices are set by "Mortgage banks" and their appraisal officers.
There is housing inflation in double digits nationwide.

farmer2021 says

No the prices are set by "Mortgage banks" and their appraisal officers.

That is silly. The prices are "set" by the price the Greater Fool (buyer) is willing to pay. Yes, banks will give them a lift with the low interest rates. And yes, appraisers will sanction the price for the lender. And the price will be determined by the amount the buyer is willing to pay. Maybe by "offering" way more than the asking price. Silly Greater Fools.

This is not Bangalore or Shanghai or Hong Kong, though perhaps beginning to look like those places with frenzied folks coveting a few square meters of real estate. There's a whole USA beyond Altamont Pass without such frenzy.

B.A.C.A.H. says

farmer2021 says

No the prices are set by "Mortgage banks" and their appraisal officers.

That is silly. The prices are "set" by the price the Greater Fool (buyer) is willing to pay. Yes, banks will give them a lift with the low interest rates. And yes, appraisers will sanction the price for the lender. And the price will be determined by the amount the buyer is willing to pay. Maybe by "offering" way more than the asking price. Silly Greater Fools.

This is not Bangalore or Shanghai or Hong Kong, though perhaps beginning to look like those places with frenzied folks coveting a few square meters of real estate. There's a whole USA beyond Altamont Pass without such frenzy.

I wish buyer had that power.
Unfortunately he is helpless and hapless.
Many have no choice but to cough up money as bigger place is needed due to COVID work from home.

It is nationwide.
https://www.kiplinger.com/article/real-estate/t010-c000-s002-home-price-changes-in-the-100-largest-metro-areas.html

The illogical and cruel shutdowns are going to make life hell for everyone.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/lumber-prices-232-could-spiral-090000342.html
Lumber prices are up 232% and ‘could spiral out of control in the next few months’

farmer2021 says

B.A.C.A.H. says

farmer2021 says

No the prices are set by "Mortgage banks" and their appraisal officers.

That is silly. The prices are "set" by the price the Greater Fool (buyer) is willing to pay. Yes, banks will give them a lift with the low interest rates. And yes, appraisers will sanction the price for the lender. And the price will be determined by the amount the buyer is willing to pay. Maybe by "offering" way more than the asking price. Silly Greater Fools.

This is not Bangalore or Shanghai or Hong Kong, though perhaps beginning to look like those places with frenzied folks coveting a few square meters of real estate. There's a whole USA beyond Altamont Pass without such frenzy.

I wish buyer had that power.
Unfortunately he is helpless and hapless.
Many have no choice but to cough up...

The rise in prices correlates with the fall of mortgage rates. Now there's also a shortage in rural and suburban areas due to various factors, mainly covid. In CA prop 13 adds to the shortage. Prices in most Western countries have been rising fueled by low rates, in Europe rates have been even lower. But you don't have to buy in CA, there are more affordable properties all over the map, in FL or TX for example. Plus rents have fallen to the point where renting is equal or better than owning in certain areas. You have a choice. And realtors on avg. are actually not doing well in a market like this, so it's not them conspiring. Many realtors are starving in a market with a shortage of homes as their clients never get the bid, and listing agents have fewer and fewer homes to sell. The markup on prices does not make up for that, realtors would much rather have a market with plenty of supply and more homes selling and turning over at lower prices.

farmer2021 says

The illogical and cruel shutdowns are going to make life hell for everyone.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/lumber-prices-232-could-spiral-090000342.html
Lumber prices are up 232% and ‘could spiral out of control in the next

I would call where they are currently “spiraled out of control,” but to each his own...

mell says

Many realtors are starving in a market with a shortage of homes as their clients never get the bid, and listing agents have fewer and fewer homes to sell. The markup on prices does not make up for that, realtors would much rather have a market with plenty of supply and more homes selling and turning over at lower prices.

The way I see it (at least here in silicon valley) is that real-estate agents are a dime a dozen. Many go into that line of work hoping for a quick fortune. The market for that job sorts itself out. If they wind up only making $40k a year (because there are 5x more agents in the market than needed), then they shouldn't complain ... their skillset isn't any more marketable than a supermarket cashier and they're making the same money.

Just remember that the purpose of an agent hosting an open house on the weekend isn't to show the house; it's to meet new clients.

There are currently more licensed real estate agents than there are houses for sale. More are being drawn into the field every day wanting to make bank for doing nothing.

ForcedTQ says

Lumber prices are up 232% and ‘could spiral out of control in the next

I would call where they are currently “spiraled out of control,”

Misc says

There are currently more licensed real estate agents than there are houses for sale. More are being drawn into the field every day wanting to make bank for doing nothing.

The real estate transaction system is what it is. I am a real estate photographer and I can tell you, Realtors are not a dime a dozen. Every transaction is different regarding personalities and difficulties.

WineHorror1 says

The real estate transaction system is what it is. I am a real estate photographer and I can tell you, Realtors are not a dime a dozen. Every transaction is different regarding personalities and difficulties.

This is true. There's grown ass men that couldn't run a lawn mower if their life depended on it. There are shit head Realtors out there, so not defending the industry as they're overpaid for what they're doing. But if you can't mow the lawn good luck with a real estate transaction on your own between showings and all the other BS.

The real estate lobby is massive. Some were MLS fees, but most of my fees went to the association when I held a license. Let it lapse in September this past year and I'm saving $2k/yr now for something I only used for personal uses. I've got enough connections that I can make it as cheap as holding a license now. Wasn't worth the hassle anymore doing CE every 2 years and the cost.

Personalities are the worst part. Too many hands in the pot. Realtors (against each other), lenders, inspectors, attorneys, municipalities in some locations, etc. Probably by design, but having been there and managing a place, it's not all rainbows and sunshine.

Also, zz, the lady in red is pretty hot.

WineHorror1 says

Realtors are not a dime a dozen.

That's being generous.

A dime per dozens.

(BTW this is not Chicago, it's the SF Bay Area).

B.A.C.A.H. says

WineHorror1 says

Realtors are not a dime a dozen.

That's being generous.

A dime per dozens.

(BTW this is not Chicago, it's the SF Bay Area).

Realtors are sales people. Would you call all salesmen a dime a dozen? If I understand correctly, sales is one of the top 4-5 paid careers...for a reason.

IMO, if you want to be dissatisfied with a real estate transaction, look no further than the government, financial institutions and the NAR.

I think Zillow, or some other type of company, has a real chance to compete with the NAR. Competition in this industry is sorely needed. Also, if America wants to be a great nation again, IMO, we need more people in houses without going broke and relying on that sweet sweet equity for their retirement. Just my 2 cents.

America is bifurcating along social, political and economic lines like never before(?)....not good. Not good at all.

Oh, and probably along health lines now as well with fucking the plandemic and all.

SunnyvaleCA says

mell says

Many realtors are starving in a market with a shortage of homes as their clients never get the bid, and listing agents have fewer and fewer homes to sell. The markup on prices does not make up for that, realtors would much rather have a market with plenty of supply and more homes selling and turning over at lower prices.

The way I see it (at least here in silicon valley) is that real-estate agents are a dime a dozen. Many go into that line of work hoping for a quick fortune. The market for that job sorts itself out. If they wind up only making $40k a year (because there are 5x more agents in the market than needed), then they shouldn't complain ... their skillset isn't any more marketable than a supermarket cashier and they're making the same money.

Just remember that the purpose of an agent hosting an open house on the weekend isn't to show the house; it's to meet new clients.

Agreed - it wasn't meant to be specifically sympathetical towards realtors, just pointing out that a sellers market with low inventory is not good for them.

Radio personalities are overpaid and dime a dozen also. /sarc. My brother in law is a pretty popular radio personality in Seattle. It takes a special type of person to do that job.

Misc says

There are currently more licensed real estate agents than there are houses for sale. More are being drawn into the field every day

WineHorror1 says

Realtors are sales people.

The same thing said two different ways.

I frequently get mailers with realtors saying they have sold real estate worth billion.
e.g. see this lady:
https://www.chawlarealestate.com/
Claiming 1.3B in total sales and many 10s of millions since beginning of this year.

If she is able to keep 1% after expenses, She has already cleared $13M in income.

Farmer,

If you think your story about ®ealtors is the whole picture, then get your license.

Then you will get your own Pocket Listing and be able to make your own purchase of your own listing, paying your commission to your self.

The license is so cheap that you'll come out ahead on the commission.