patrick.net

That means he is throwing gas on fire to control fire. There’s no credible reason to believe inflation will be controlled by firing people and intensify production and supply problems for his dangerous injections as a big pharma representative. All responsible savers get f* both by irresponsible spenders and gov.

"experts" are always wrong.

I read this book back in college, and it was great:

https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/836773.The_Experts_Speak




It's just a book of quotes by "experts" being very wrong.

FuckTheMainstreamMedia says
You must live in some sort of bizarro alternate world.


>>>>>nope, its not bizarre at all. money printing + long interest rates = asset inflation, add covid supply shortages and people who dont want to work to the equation and you have inflation across the board.

FuckTheMainstreamMedia says

It’s the average Joe that would be fucked.

>>>>>maybe we have a diff. definition of avg joe. I simplify: people who have' houses and stocks/crypto and have good paying jobs are just fine. The poor are fucked. poor means no stocks and no house. And people who wait for a crash and sit on cash are losing big time.


FuckTheMainstreamMedia says
And your premise earlier that everyone’s underwater is not correct either. 2018 and 2019 financially were some of the best years in a couple decades for the average dude. It’s why wages were record setting. Of course Covid and a likely rigged election messed that up.


>>>>>>when did i say everyone's under water? BTW 2020 was better than 2019.....i bought stocks left and right during the covid crash - a buying opportunity of a lifetime if you bought the lows.

FuckTheMainstreamMedia says
But anyway, yeah inflation now. Air flight are still underpopulated so not a good measure. Otoh US measured inflation is, as is noticeable price i...

>>>>>I flew twice to the east cost in the past few months. Airports are packed and flights are full. You can fly for 300 bucks with Alaska air to Newark and back to San Diego. Not that I care (the company pays for it) but its dirt cheap. Sure other items are up (groceries, gas) but my house, stocks and crypto also massively increased in value.

You just got to learn how to play the game in any market.

I am not so sure we will see inflation. Some comments from a spat between Dorsey and Cathie Wood (where Dorsey said hyperinflation was coming)...
==============================
Wood said the three roots of deflation will be:

Technologically enabled innovation, which will be the "most potent source." This includes artificial intelligence, an industry whose training costs have been dropping 40%-70% at an annual rate, in what she called a record-breaking deflationary force. "AI is likely to transform every sector, industry, and company" over the next 5-10 years, she said.

Creative destruction due to disruptive innovation. Many companies, she said, have catered to short-term-oriented shareholders who mainly seek profit, instead of investing in innovation. These companies "will be forced to service their debts by selling increasingly obsolete goods at discounts: deflation," she added.

Cyclical factors. After shutting down, many business are still catching up to consumer demand that surged during the pandemic and are likely ordering double or triple what they typically need. But she predicted that wave will pass. "Once the holiday season passes and companies face excess supplies, prices should unwind," she said, adding that some commodity prices such as lumber and iron ore have dropped 50%.

She also said oil demand is below 2019 levels, and rising prices should weaken it. Meanwhile, the ESG trend is forcing energy companies to shift investments toward renewables, and banks are lending less to the sector. Plus, electric vehicles are taking off, "sowing the seeds of a serious oil price decline longer term."

Bitcoin says

Sure other items are up (groceries, gas) but my house, stocks and crypto also massively increased in value.

You just got to learn how to play the game in any market.

So to stay ahead of the game, all you need to do is gamble and win!

After watching long enough, I am very convinced that deflation will never happen. Corrupt gov thinks it’s a gift to print even more money in additon to the regular printing. Imagine now with new “social spending” crap, it will bump up more inflammation. Every nation is devaluing their currency. Only difference is that it’s happening at faster rate now using “pandemic” tool.

Blue says

After watching long enough, I am very convinced that deflation will never happen. Corrupt gov thinks it’s a gift to print even more money in additon to the regular printing. Imagine now with new “social spending” crap, it will bump up more inflammation. Every nation is devaluing their currency. Only difference is that it’s happening at faster rate now using “pandemic” tool.

Agreed

For average Americans with debt, inflation is a gift. Sure it’s going to suck for a few years while wages adjust to the new fiscal reality, but everything you owe money on is going to become worth more while your debt depreciates.
Example: you owe $500,000 on your home valued at $600,000. You make $100,000 a year. After five years of this sort of inflation, the home is now worth $900,000 and the debt is the same. Thanks to market forces and employment being tight, you have managed to swing a commensurate 50% raise and now make $150,000 annually. Your income and house are now 50% greater, but your debt hasn’t changed much at all. In fact, it’s decreased slightly, meaning that the $3000 mortgage payment that used to tax you severely is now quite affordable and as a percentage of your salary has dropped from (100,000/$36,000=36% - 150,000/36,000= 24% = 36-24= 12%) 36% of your income to a mere 24%, a 12% drop, or 1/3 drop from where it used to be. You owe $465,000 now, about half what your house is worth, compared to the 83% that used to belong to the bank.
Yes, everything else is now more expensive as well, but none of your expenses are as much as your housing expense, and you have more of your income available to pay for them.
And your subjective wealth has grown by $400,000. You are now almost a half millionaire!

komputodo says

Imagine now with new “social spending” crap, it will bump up more inflammation.

Inflammation, surely a typo but also kinda accurate. When the government prints money with reckless abandon the end result is red hot swollen prices.

komputodo says

all you need to do is gamble and win!

buying RE, stock and crypto as a long term investment is not gambling.....going to vegas and putting all on red is gambling.

Shaman says

For average Americans with debt, inflation is a gift.

Thank you for the example....i am too lazy to spell it out. Glad you took the time....thats spot on. those that hold cash and see investing as gambling lose big time during inflation.

the funny thing is, many complained about only having 2-2.5% inflation the last few years. Now that we finally have some inflation, people complain about gas prices and milk prices going up. People just always need to complain about something.

Bitcoin says

many complained about only having 2-2.5% inflation the last few years.

Now who did that?

https://www.vice.com/en/article/wxd8wy/the-used-tractor-market-is-far-wilder-than-the-used-car-market?utm_source=patrick.net&utm_medium=patrick.net&utm_campaign=patrick.net

Shortages for parts getting worse I see it here and there at work some of my wait times for parts are up a few weeks, use to be everything was overnight.

Appliances pars take anywhere from 2 weeks to 3 months + here. Everythinh "on backorder". Fucked up. Let's go brandon!

I work on some industrial automation systems when the parts start being delayed for the parts delivery systems shit will cascade.

mell says

Fucked up

My mechanic says parts quality is in the trash! Had a chunk fall out of the casing of the two year old starter on my '96 Roadmaster less than a year ago. Last week, the same thing happened. Fixed under warranty, but had to pay for r&r. I'm getting tired of it. My friend who's in the electronics business says their quality is terrible, too.

Bitcoin says

those that hold cash and see investing as gambling lose big time during inflation.

During the boom of the mid-60's, the stock market kept flirting with 1,000 in 1966, but never got above about 940. There was a date in 1966 that it would take the stock market until 1983 to reach again due to the Great Inflation of the 70's. Securities lost 40% of their value during that time.

https://notthebee.com/article/can-we-talk-about-how-annual-inflation-just-hit-68-a-rate-not-seen-since-1982-?source=patrick.net

Can we talk about how annual inflation just hit 6.8%, a rate not seen since 1982?? 😬

The Biden "Presidency":

Americans working hourly jobs will be screwed the most. Inflation has gone up faster than their earnings and this will continue.

However those on government programs like welfare and the such will do quite fine. The guv'ment will continue to give them more and more money in their pockets and more and more vouchers to pay for everything ELSE they are not already paying for!

I drive by parking lots of businesses where people work like Amazon or UPS and look at the cars there. Hoopties compared to those I see on the news in smash and grab robberies!

Nuff said!

casandra says

Hoopties

I did not know this word.

https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=hoopty&source=patrick.net

That's why I bought my new car recently. I usually buy low mileage used about 2-3 years old, but I noticed they were pricing them as much as new, sometimes more. I told my wife with inflation, it would likely be a lot cheaper to buy now than later. One of her friends couldn't even find a rental car when her own car was being fixed, and they were charging $200 a day for the ones available in Santa Cruz.

I managed to buy my vehicle new at standard MSRP, which was fine with me. The dealer already had signs for $3500 mark up due to demand, even on the car I bought, but gave it to me at the standard price. He said my model only came in one at a time and were always gone in a few days. Some car dealers are hurting for inventory on the best liked models. Some of it is the chip shortage which is leaving high demand models in short supply.

Ceffer says

I told my wife with inflation, it would likely be a lot cheaper to buy now than later.

They will be cheaper later.

Ceffer says

That's why I bought my new car recently. I usually buy low mileage used about 2-3 years old, but I noticed they were pricing them as much as new, sometimes more. I told my wife with inflation, it would likely be a lot cheaper to buy now than later. One of her friends couldn't even find a rental car when her own car was being fixed, and they were charging $200 a day for the ones available in Santa Cruz.

I managed to buy my vehicle new at standard MSRP, which was fine with me. The dealer already had signs for $3500 mark up due to demand, even on the car I bought, but gave it to me at the standard price. He said my model only came in one at a time and were always gone in a few days. Some car dealers are hurting for inventory on the best liked models. Some of it is the chip shortage which is leaving high demand models in short supply.

Just happened to me last week. The used with 20k miles were only $3-4k cheaper than new... not worth it. Some were obvious Uber Cars with 30-40k miles in just a year, and were still only $4k cheaper than new. Retarded to pay $29k for a 20k mileage 2019/2020 when the 2021 with no mileage is $34k.

Booger says

They will be cheaper later.

This guy says prices should go back to normal 6 to 12 months from now:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EsRoDkaFaWU&source=patrick.net

Sales are down despite prices being up. Before the chip issue there were a lot of non-car owners buying cars to avoid public transit due to covid.

My bet is prices will go down but who knows.

https://notthebee.com/article/whoops-the-white-house-chief-of-staff-tweeted-about-gas-prices-falling-the-same-day-that-the-bureau-of-labor-statistics-said-the-gas-index-rose-61?source=patrick.net

WHOOPS! Biden's Chief of Staff said gas prices are falling the same day the Bureau of Labor Statistics said the gasoline index rose 6.1% 🤔

Commodore Vanderbilt
Dec 11th, 2021 12:13 pm
It's really embarrassing when Big Government can't figure out how to communicate the Narrative™ in sync

https://spectatorworld.com/newsletter/why-wont-the-white-house-take-inflation-seriously/?source=patrick.net

Why won’t the White House take inflation seriously?

Answer: Because inflation does not hurt the leftist billionaires who fund Democratic corruption. Their stocks have compensated for inflation, and then some.

It's ordinary working people who get hurt by inflation, and the Democrats hate the working class with a passion.

https://babylonbee.com/news/psaki-vows-to-find-destroy-underground-lair-where-all-corporate-executives-meet-to-decide-to-raise-prices-simultaneously-for-no-reason?source=patrick.net

Patrick says

https://babylonbee.com/news/psaki-vows-to-find-destroy-underground-lair-where-all-corporate-executives-meet-to-decide-to-raise-prices-simultaneously-for-no-reason?source=patrick.net

Don't we have drones for that?

https://notthebee.com/article/wholesale-prices-are-up-an-insane-96-over-last-year-?source=patrick.net

Wholesale prices are now up an insane 9.6% over last year 👀

psaki is a total shameless liar and waste of time to watch her.

https://patriotpost.us/articles/84966?utm_medium=patrick.net&utm_source=patrick.net&utm_campaign=patrick.net&utm_content=body

https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2021/12/28/here-we-go-kraft-heinz-tells-grocery-retailers-price-increases-beginning-2022-will-be-20-percent/?source=patrick.net

Also on local morning news.

https://nypost.com/2022/01/03/biden-says-he-found-out-from-family-friend-that-meat-costs-are-soaring/?utm_campaign=patrick.net&utm_source=patrick.net&utm_medium=patrick.net

Patrick says

https://nypost.com/2022/01/03/biden-says-he-found-out-from-family-friend-that-meat-costs-are-soaring/?utm_campaign=patrick.net&utm_source=patrick.net&utm_medium=patrick.net

I saw that. Next dems will try to set prices on common things, push to take over meat companies, maybe gas. Mmm where have we heard all this before?

RC2006 says

dems will try to set prices on common things, push to take over meat companies, maybe ga

I am not apologizing for those notions, no way. Hedonic-adjustments for inflation indices are part of a larger conspiracy of lies to paper over our declining standard of living. I get it.

That said, we eat way more meat than we should, and waste way more gasoline than we need for our economic activity. Whether we think so or not, these are discretionary expenses that we can easily, elastically, reduce, with no decline in our standard of living.

Here's two common expense thingees they ought to focus on: health care and education.

So far inflation hasn't impacted us that badly (yet) in our house. Gas is more, but thanks to covid we travel less, and drive less, not more, so its a wash.

I cringe at the thought of what our next fuel oil bill will be to heat the house though.

Food has gone up noticeably but month to month it's not a huge expense. Our two biggest monthly line items are the house and childcare which are fairly static.

After almost two decades of near zero interest rates, we all knew the free money Era would end at some point. Part of me is surprised it took this long. I'm not convinced if this inflation is good, bad or indifferent. It depends on how severe it is and for how long.

There are always trade offs. I suspect the Fed will be forced to raise rates to combat this inflation surge. That means a better yield on my savings account which has been insultingly low, not that there is much in there.

Question - since inflation is seemingly here to stay, how are you adjusting your investments accordingly?