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Investing in property???

By joshuatrio follow joshuatrio   2021 Feb 12, 5:55am 335 views   17 comments   watch   nsfw   quote   share    


Anyone feel like we're on the brink of hyperinflation or massive deflationary collapse with all these fucking trillion dollar bailouts, and some massive ass collapse?

I'd like to buy some property down in Florida, but can't shake the feeling that the rug is going to get pulled out from underneath all this bubbly bullshit.
1   Shaman   ignore (2)   2021 Feb 12, 6:16am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Inflation is coming.
It HAS to come.
Our politicians have been spending us into a massive hole and the only way out is inflation.
Be on the lookout for a big rise in federal minimum wage as the inflation trigger.
Inflation can be your friend if you are invested in assets!
2   clambo   ignore (5)   2021 Feb 12, 6:23am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

I went to the beach the other day up in Jupiter island.

I was talking to a guy who is kind of local.

He thought the situation presently was a bit of a reaction to Wuhan/Corona/Covid. There is a high demand presently he said.

“Wait until they spend a few summers and a hurricane scares them. Wives will say ‘let’s get out of here’”.

He said a prudent course is rent for a year rather than buy today.

I think there will be some foreclosures, but this process takes a long time in Florida compared to California because of law variation.
3   WookieMan   ignore (7)   2021 Feb 12, 7:37am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

joshuatrio says
I'd like to buy some property down in Florida, but can't shake the feeling that the rug is going to get pulled out from underneath all this bubbly bullshit.

I'd go for it. Don't know exactly where you are in GA, but isn't it a quick 3-4 hour drive to the Panhandle depending what part? Definitely cheaper there than central and southern FL. This is all under the assumption you can afford it and there's low to minimal prospectives of job or income loss if you need that to carry it.

Once Canadians stop being pussies, the snowbird market there is pretty big for monthly rentals if that's the route you're going. My folks owned a condo there for years. They like to drive down and the panhandle weather in winter, even when cold is like the Sahara to Canadians.

Repetitive, but I'd go for it. If you're going to rent it out and it's a beach area I'd go 2nd, 3rd tier or bayside depending on location. You can get massive rents from beachfront, but you're going to have higher vacancy and massive up front costs. Though you'd likely have higher appreciation long term. That's a tough call as usual. Income or appreciation. Either way if you got someone covering your mortgage and expenses it's a win and you're close enough to swing down there during vacancies. I'm sure you could work from there based on past postings as well.

Just_passing_through could probably give you better advice if it's going to set it up as a vacation rental if you're not using it. I rent them for pleasure, but I don't own them. I'd want to self manage and it seems like a pain. Worse than regular tenants. So don't know the pitfalls of that route.

You'll likely pay more than you'd like right now. As you mention though, if inflation takes off you'd be fine. Deflation would be problematic. I think housing is pretty stabile though. Can't see a 20% plus swing one way or another. But as Realtors say it's all local.

We'll be down in Pensacola Beach at the Portifino this spring break. It's been 2-3 years since I've been and looking forward to it. Was my stomping grounds 2-3 weeks a year in my childhood. Spent a good year or two of my life down there. Great place along that entire coast.

Not a huge fan of PCB and Destin is getting pretty popular. Pensacola Beach is too, but staying on the east end is nice. Navarre Beach is the best in my world, but we couldn't find a place that had value and what we wanted with short notice.

I'd buy in Navarre in a second if I wanted vacation rentals though. Not the best rental market, but at some point it's going to blow up. I don't know the local government, but it's sandwiched between military land and national park land. There's land, but at some point it will be super scarce. Wish my parents had bought a 1st or 2nd tier lot and held it instead of the condo. I'd likely be building a house on it right now. Ass holes;)
4   clambo   ignore (5)   2021 Feb 12, 7:55am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Re: Florida rental property.
There are 2 property tax rates; one is if you live in it, the higher rate is if you are a landlord.
HOA fees are a rip-off; $500-$600 per month is not uncommon.
My friend rents her place out and lives with her boyfriend; she recently had to cough up $13,000 for some repairs that was assessed to everyone in the condo association.
She paid $6000+ in property tax.
She complained to me about wishing she had invested in stock mutual funds.
I hear that from time to time.

If you want to make money on rentals in Florida, go closer to the ghettos.

Then deal with the usual problems of deadbeats, losers, etc.
5   joshuatrio   ignore (0)   2021 Feb 12, 10:48am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

WookieMan says
joshuatrio says
I'd like to buy some property down in Florida, but can't shake the feeling that the rug is going to get pulled out from underneath all this bubbly bullshit.

I'd go for it. Don't know exactly where you are in GA, but isn't it a quick 3-4 hour drive to the Panhandle depending what part? Definitely cheaper there than central and southern FL. This is all under the assumption you can afford it and there's low to minimal prospectives of job or income loss if you need that to carry it.

Once Canadians stop being pussies, the snowbird market there is pretty big for monthly rentals if that's the route you're going. My folks owned a condo there for years. They like to drive down and the panhandle weather in winter, even when cold is like the Sahara to Canadians.

Repetitive, but I'd go for it. If you're going to rent it out and it's a beach area I'd go 2nd, 3rd tier or bayside depending on location. Y...


I think we're about 5 hours north of the Navarre area. We spent time down there last fall and enjoyed it - it's a pretty conservative area and didn't seem stupid woke.

This would be a second house for us, we'd consider renting it via airbnb, but no long term renters. Just a place to escape to and get out of dodge since it seems this isolation hell the media keeps pushing has no real end in sight. Long term, we want to be in Florida anyways.

What's your impression of long term housing trends, and do you think we're headed for a massive shitshow in the housing stock markets?
6   Bitcoin   ignore (14)   2021 Feb 12, 10:56am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

You cant really go wrong with investment property unless you dont do your due dilligence. You might not make money right away but long term you will be fine.
The hyper inflation scare is just a scare. Inflation in asset prices is obviously tremendous (stocks, RE, Bitcoin).
As long as you buy those assets and hold throughout dips you will be fine. Cash is trash (not including emergency funds/rainy day funds and investment buying opportunity funds/buy the dip funds).
7   WookieMan   ignore (7)   2021 Feb 12, 11:13am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

joshuatrio says
We spent time down there last fall and enjoyed it - it's a pretty conservative area and didn't seem stupid woke.

For sure conservative. Big time and I haven't been down there in a couple years. Probably more so now. It's almost over the top in all honesty as a semi-conservative Libertarian. I'd rather have it that way though.

My mom is selling one of her 3 houses in Milton, FL to a tenant. North of the Garcon Point bridge (north of Pensacola and Navarre). Bay access water wise, but a bit seedy. Not sure what she's doing with the other two. I'm going to check them out when I'm down there in March. Might take one or both off her hands. She's retired and it's a pain in the ass for her. We'll see. Might be better to just unload at this point for her. Not sure I want the burden dealing with 1 year rentals and meth heads in that area. These aren't vacation rentals. Bay access for me is intriguing though. 25-30 minute drive to the beach though might be the deal breaker for me.

You're getting me excited to get down there. Can't burn through 35 days fast enough. Another location we've discovered we like is St. George Island further east. Have a user down in the panhandle I believe. Tagging him now. He's talked about the panhandle and I think lives there. @ad might be of assistance. Let me know if I'm wrong.
8   Dugan   ignore (0)   2021 Feb 12, 12:00pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

With rentsl properties I only invest and rent to the people that are golden. Meaning, they are on disability or other public govt programs. Their money is guaranteed and comes every month regardless. I never rent to people who work or have jobs. Jobs can be lost and so goes your rent money. Also those on programs have all their bills covered and the money they get is all free. Might as well get it in rent before it goes to 350 dollar sneakers, 500 dollar hair du, or 400 dollar nail job. Oh, and their pre tax income level (keeping in mind they pay no tax and get even more money for filing head of household) is more than most with jobs. Just something to think about.
9   Hircus   ignore (0)   2021 Feb 12, 1:40pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Dugan says
I only invest and rent to the people that are golden. Meaning, they are on disability or other public govt programs.


Does it take you a long time to find such a renter?
10   Hircus   ignore (0)   2021 Feb 12, 1:56pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Shaman says
Inflation is coming.
It HAS to come.
Our politicians have been spending us into a massive hole and the only way out is inflation.


Ya, I've heard that argument too - that they will likely attempt to inflate the debt away over the coming years. Sounds very plausible.

This past decade hasn't been good for our debt, and nobody even talks about the debt anymore. They just talk about how much we need to spend to bring "justice" or "economic equity" and other bullshit.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEGDQ188S




But, hasn't the fed been saying this past decade they're having trouble keeping inflation high enough? From what I've seen, japan printed a lot but didn't seem to have much inflation. I'm not sure how comparable we are to them, though.
11   stfu   ignore (0)   2021 Feb 13, 6:39am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

I'm not buying and not betting on massive inflation no matter what the fed does - to a point - as long as Saudi oil is denominated in USD.

The fed has been trying to inflate for most of my life because banks don't make money and tend to go out of business when the opposite happens. What keeps the fed up at night is deflation.

Throwing more liquidity into a system with no productive outlets for that liquidity just leads to mal-investment and ultimately to destruction of the debt. This is deflationary. Imagine how peoples and corporate spending habits would change in an environment of heavy deflation - sitting on cash gives you MORE buying power instead of less. That would be a net negative for wall street and more so for the banking institutions. At some point all of this money printing will have a reckoning but it will likely take the form of an epic deflationary depression - another great depression - when bad loans and bad investments are finally recognized.

Decades of productivity improvements should have led to massive deflation, but it didn't. Fed's doing it's job. All that capital sloshing around doing hardly any productive work but the banksters continue to skim off the top of every transaction. Who wins? Its proportional to the wealth distribution.
12   joshuatrio   ignore (0)   2021 Feb 13, 8:00am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

WookieMan says
joshuatrio says
We spent time down there last fall and enjoyed it - it's a pretty conservative area and didn't seem stupid woke.

For sure conservative. Big time and I haven't been down there in a couple years. Probably more so now. It's almost over the top in all honesty as a semi-conservative Libertarian. I'd rather have it that way though.

My mom is selling one of her 3 houses in Milton, FL to a tenant. North of the Garcon Point bridge (north of Pensacola and Navarre). Bay access water wise, but a bit seedy. Not sure what she's doing with the other two. I'm going to check them out when I'm down there in March. Might take one or both off her hands. She's retired and it's a pain in the ass for her. We'll see. Might be better to just unload at this point for her. Not sure I want the burden dealing with 1 year rentals and meth heads in that area. These aren't vacation rentals...


Lol nice. Best of luck with those properties!

We might actually head down this afternoon. We're considering the Navarre/destin/pensacola area and the space coast/Melbourne area as well. I'd prefer to be on the atlantic for the opportunity to surf.

Working with a realtor now. Inventory is crazy slim though. Not going to settle, and would rather wait to get what we want.

Why don't you move down that way? Climate is a lot more favorable than Chicago.
13   WookieMan   ignore (7)   2021 Feb 13, 9:06am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

joshuatrio says
I'd prefer to be on the atlantic for the opportunity to surf.

Forgot that you're a CA relocate, right? That makes sense. I don't surf, tried, but wasn't my jam and was probably crappy conditions. I've seen surfers at Navarre and Pensacola, but that was on nasty days or perfect surf days. If you get a good day the National seashore between Navarre and Pensacola will allow for plenty of space. Don't know the etiquette, but I know surfing can get crowded on a good wave day.

I don't know the lingo, but you will get some calms days with some 4-6' nicely formed waves by the sandbar. Those are rare though. I'm a chill at the beach guy and maybe have encountered 5 or 6 days of that in under 2 years. Time of year might be a factor in the panhandle. I'm sure there's sites for that and you're already checking.

joshuatrio says
Why don't you move down that way? Climate is a lot more favorable than Chicago.

$$$$. Not much to be had in the panhandle. Very much legacy and family business down there, so tough to make good money and break through, and I'm not a doctor or lawyer. Wife could work for an affiliate down there, but it would take years and likely be less income once established. They generally don't like northerners either. Still nice to you, but honest ones will tell you they dislike them. One negative of that part of the south.

I can move wherever myself. No anchors besides the wife's work which has taken off. We're looking into the USVI for a vacation rental and future retirement place. BVI and other islands are better, but I don't really want to be an expat, passport, customs and all that crap if we travel back to the states. Puerto Rico is super intriguing if we're earring income down there. Vieques is nice, but the mainland has average beaches. I'm a water guy and pristine beaches (Navarre sand is unbeatable - hands down). I want to see 40-60' from the surface to the bottom. Move Navarre sand to St. John and you'd have perfection. Maybe I'll buy a lot and do that, lol.
14   Fortwaynemobile   ignore (3)   2021 Feb 13, 9:59am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

I have no idea wtf is happening. I know they bailed out utla here with Covid funds. But that union is corrupt as fuck so they’ll be out of money again soon.

We bail out localities every few years now, this shit is unsustainable.
15   zzyzzx   ignore (2)   2021 Feb 16, 6:09am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

NYC pricing invades Montana - 58% surge in pricing in ONE YEAR!
https://lbry.tv/@rossmanngroup:a/nyc-pricing-invades-montana-58-surge-in:c
16   HeadSet   ignore (2)   2021 Feb 16, 11:02am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Hircus says
Dugan says
I only invest and rent to the people that are golden. Meaning, they are on disability or other public govt programs.


Does it take you a long time to find such a renter?


This sounds like being a Section 8 landlord. And last time I looked, there is a shortage of Section 8 available homes, so a Section 8 landlord has a waiting list of tenants.
17   WookieMan   ignore (7)   2021 Feb 16, 12:36pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

zzyzzx says
NYC pricing invades Montana - 58% surge in pricing in ONE YEAR!
https://lbry.tv/@rossmanngroup:a/nyc-pricing-invades-montana-58-surge-in:c

I really don't get the appeal of Bozeman and I've been out there about 5-6 times. Any good activity is hours away and that's assuming roads are in decent shape (winter). I mean just to get to the good spots on the Madison for fly fishing, you're looking at a 3 hours round trip from Bozeman. Might as well drive to the airport and fly somewhere at that point.

Bozeman downtown itself is yuppieville. It's awful. Probably like 10 microbreweries every step you take. No parking. Last January I was out there. We couldn't get into a restaurant during a weekday. Hour wait plus everywhere. I don't know if enough CA people/chefs have moved there, but the food is god awful out there.

Great hiking, two good ski hills, fly fishing and that's about it. Yellowstone is amazing obviously, but that's done after 4 visits or so and 1-1/2 hour away. You basically move there to fly fish or you're a ski bum yuppie. Snow levels are hit or miss in the mountains there too. This year is low/bad.

Honestly think it's in a bubble at the local real estate level. Tons, and I mean tons of CA transplants. Once that flow stops I think they stagnate or plummet on home values unless nationwide inflation kicks in. The values don't make sense. There's flat land in the valley for 1M people all day without high rises. Between Bozeman and Belgrade it's like 40k tops I believe.

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