patrick.net

Bitcoin is not an asset. It's a gamble.

Over 2,000 posts and no one has stated how you can make money from Bitcoin without finding a greater fool to pay more than you paid for it.

YoungHoon Kim – Manipulation Has Passed, and BTC Is Ready for a New ATH
In contrast, YoungHoon Kim — whose verified IQ score is 276 — views the situation through the lens of game theory.

In his latest assessment, Kim argues that the current dip represents temporary manipulation by market whales. He believes it could fade within a week. After that, Bitcoin may move toward a new all-time high.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/peter-brandt-world-highest-iq-083932437.html

Onvacation says

Over 2,000 posts and no one has stated how you can make money from Bitcoin without finding a greater fool to pay more than you paid for it.

Pretty much every buttcoin assertion is false: Governments can trace it, it can be stolen/defrauded, and it's still not used in transactions outside of buying drugs or laundering money mostly by larger sophisticated criminal orgs. iTulips.

FreeAmericanDOP says

it's still not used in transactions outside of buying drugs or laundering money

And paying ransom.

PNC which is a major US bank is creating accounts for Bitcoin as part of normalizing and adopting it whereas clients will have it as part of their banking services (checking, savings, Bitcoin, etc)

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https://bitcoinmagazine.com/news/pnc-offers-direct-bitcoin-trading

PNC Becomes First Major U.S. Bank to Offer Direct Bitcoin Trading to Clients via Coinbase
PNC Bank is now the first major U.S. bank to offer eligible Private Bank clients direct bitcoin trading through its platform, powered by Coinbase’s infrastructure.

If bitcoin is valued in fiat is it more fiat or less fiat than fiat?

Onvacation says

If bitcoin is valued in fiat is it more fiat or less fiat than fiat?

Same goes for gold and silver priced in US dollars.

Is Bitcoin "More Fiat" or "Less Fiat"?

• More fiat (measurement sense)

• If Bitcoin is quoted in dollars, its market perception is tethered to fiat.

• Every price chart, every exchange rate, every “BTC/USD” ticker reinforces fiat as the reference frame.

• In this sense, Bitcoin becomes “more fiat” because its value is expressed through fiat lenses.

• Less fiat (essence sense)

• Bitcoin itself is not fiat: it’s scarce, decentralized, and not decreed by a government.

• Its supply is capped at 21 million, unlike fiat which can be expanded at will.

• In this sense, Bitcoin is “less fiat” because it resists the inflationary and political dynamics of fiat.

Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick's Cantor Fitzgerald's 21 Capital went public today.

.................
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/twenty-one-capital-goes-live-212013737.html

A Bitcoin Giant’s Wall Street Debut
Trading under the ticker XXI, the company enters the market with more than 43,500 Bitcoin on its balance sheet.

That holding, worth about $3.9 billion, makes Twenty One Capital one of the largest corporate holders of the asset. Jack Mallers, who co-founded the firm, framed the listing as a bid to give Bitcoin a defined place in traditional markets. He argued that investors deserve access to a company built entirely on Bitcoin’s monetary logic.

AD says

ts supply is capped at 21 million

Wanna bet ????

Since the Exchanges allow you to short it, that allows the supply to expand. A person doesn't know if his Bitcoin is real unless it is secured in his own personal wallet. Nobody knows how much fiated Bitcoin there is.

I'm sure it is multiples of the 21 million. I dunno if it is as bad as the precious metals.

AD says

Bitcoin is “less fiat” because it resists the inflationary and political dynamics of fiat.

Or maybe bitcoin's a scheme for the same people that control the fiat currencies. Not only is it a simple method to transfer large amounts of cash, it also soaks up some of the dollars that would otherwise be invested in real things like stocks, bonds, real estate, and precious metals.

Bitcoin is fragile.

The whole thing depends on no one figuring out how to reverse the hash function it uses.

If someone figures that out, it's over.

Patrick says

The whole thing depends on no one figuring out how to reverse the hash function it uses.

The original white paper suggested using SHA-256 but I don't know if that's what was actually implemented.

It's good to go back and re-read that white paper from time to time. Satoshi was more script kiddie than genius - the paper simply repackaged other peoples innovations and added an NTP server to create a time stamps on a dynamic list of transactions (similar to a single array database?) To a non-coder it seems pretty fragile to me. It basically admits it's security is based on the expense to hackers being greater than the expense of honest participation in the chain. Which I think is true right now.

I agree with @Patrick - it's only a matter of time. Wouldn't it be trivial for a real quantum computer to crack the encryption and re-write the block chain? Or is quantum computer just another bullshit invention meant to dazzle us neophytes?

right now it is not worthwhile to sell covered calls for Fidelity Bitcoin ETF (ticker FBTC) as my rule is the probability of expiring out of the money added to the annualized gain from the call premium should equal at least 100%

for this call option contract, that is 80% + 9.87% or 89.87%

IDK, but I’ve made a lot of money on BItcoin through Grayscale, bailed and now only trade etherium through 2 etfs.
Makes more sense to an idjit like me.

SharkyP says

I’ve made a lot of money on BItcoin

so Bitcoin is not going to return at least 20% a year on average for next 10 years ?

I don;t trust Bitcoin.

Why is this thing valuable? What am I missing?

It's valuable because it's difficult to get, and useful for money laundering.

But it all depends on no one being able to reverse the hash function it uses. Complicated to explain, but a breakthrough in quantum computing could make all Bitcoin worthless overnight.

Bitcoin is shit. You can't eat a bitcoin.

You can eat gold - it just comes back out your butt after a day or so.

Also, if the world ends, you can't do anything with a bitcoin. You can take gold and beat it flat to make a solar mirror to cook your yams and face stew.

stereotomy says

Bitcoin is shit. You can't eat a bitcoin.

You can eat gold - it just comes back out your but after a day or so.

Also, if the world ends, you can't do anything with a bitcoin. You can take gold and beat it flat to make a solar mirror to cook your yams and face stew.

I see your point as far as utilitarian function of precious metals such as during an apocalypse era. Melt down the precious metals to make for a Civil War style rifle.

I guess invest in alternative assets (gold, silver, Bitcoin, etc) as far as up to 20% of savings as a hedge for fiat currency but not for preparing to be a survivalist or extreme homesteader.

I agree as alternative assets will be of no use during the +25 years of society trying to recover from an apocalypse event, so bullets, water, medicine kits, shelter, canned food, fishing gear, potato seeds, and trusted family and friends are invaluable, not gold coins.

AD says

I agree as alternative assets will be of no use during the +25 years of society trying to recover from an apocalypse event, so bullets, water, medicine kits, shelter, canned food, fishing gear, potato seeds, and trusted family and friends are invaluable, not gold coins.

In that situation, tobacco and alcohol will likely be used as money.

Cigarettes were money in Germany after their defeat in WWII.

Patrick says

Cigarettes were money in Germany after their defeat in WWII.

Yes, women would put out for a pack of Patrick's.