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Travel IS Coming Back

By joshuatrio follow joshuatrio   2020 Jul 7, 6:31am 632 views   19 comments   watch   nsfw   quote   share    


Despite the left's attempt to ruin the economy, air travel stats are rising. Still a long way to go, but considering only 87,534 people traveled on 4/14, we should hit a million + daily travelers by the end of summer and hopefully 2 million by the EOY.

https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput

2   WookieMan   ignore (7)   2020 Jul 7, 7:49am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

I'm flying to Utah on 7/23. First time since all this bull shit started and I usually fly monthly. We'll see how fucked up it is. I'm sure the TSA agent will allow me to keep my mask on when checking my ID.....

I just hope I can get a beer while in the air. Supposedly Southwest stopped beverage service in flight... fuck that. Hoping I can sneak a couple beers on from one of the places at Midway that sells cans/bottles and not draft. But who knows if they're even open. Surprised airports are even open, everyone is dying supposedly. I have to also sit in my basement for 14 days when I get back or Chicago will fine me $7k.

There's a medium probability of me getting arrested on this trip. lol. I'm angry.
3   PeopleUnited   ignore (1)   2020 Jul 7, 8:08am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

WookieMan says
Surprised airports are even open, everyone is dying supposedly. I have to also sit in my basement for 14 days when I get back or Chicago will fine me $7k.

There's a medium probability of me getting arrested on this trip. lol. I'm angry.


Just tell them you are there for the BLM protest. No questions asked, no quarantine required, they will probably even give you gas money.
4   WineHorror1   ignore (2)   2020 Jul 7, 8:37am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Oops, 2nd wave coming.
5   WookieMan   ignore (7)   2020 Jul 7, 11:21am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

WineHorror1 says
Oops, 2nd wave coming.

Yes. And Utah is a "hotspot" of Covid. Whatever the fuck that means. A state with 3M people, 1/4 of NYC roughly and it's a fucking "hotspot?" 2020 in a nutshell... bat shit crazy.
6   joshuatrio   ignore (0)   2020 Aug 4, 12:23pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Hopefully we'll cross a million travelers a day in the next month or two. Here's the latest breakdown in daily travel numbers. Up almost 50k in a week.

8/2/2020 799,861
7/26/2020 751,205
7/19/2020 747,422
7/12/2020 754,545
7/5/2020 732,123
6/28/2020 633,810
6/21/2020 590,456
7   Ceffer   ignore (6)   2020 Aug 4, 12:44pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Traveling, or fleeing like rats from sinking progressive state and urban ships? Is there a meaningful distinction?
8   joshuatrio   ignore (0)   2020 Aug 11, 5:37am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

8/9/2020 831,789
8/2/2020 799,861
7/26/2020 751,205
7/19/2020 747,422
7/12/2020 754,545
7/5/2020 732,123
6/28/2020 633,810
6/21/2020 590,456

Up almost 100k in 2 weeks!!!!!!!!!!!
9   WookieMan   ignore (7)   2020 Aug 11, 6:24am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

joshuatrio says
8/9/2020 831,789
8/2/2020 799,861
7/26/2020 751,205
7/19/2020 747,422
7/12/2020 754,545
7/5/2020 732,123
6/28/2020 633,810
6/21/2020 590,456

Up almost 100k in 2 weeks!!!!!!!!!!!

Flying again in October and November for leisure. November assuming Mexico and the resort we're going to will for sure be open. Still up in the air. Might do USVI's over Xmas. Don't want to give granny the Covid, although Covid will likely drop out of existence after 11/3....
10   zzyzzx   ignore (2)   2020 Aug 11, 8:15am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Already vacationed in Atlantic City once this summer. May go back later this month.
11   KgK one   ignore (0)   2020 Aug 11, 9:35am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Is it time to buy airlines, buffets fav DAL?
12   MisdemeanorRebel   ignore (3)   2020 Aug 11, 9:42am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

I flew internationally twice last month, no biggy. Just depends on the airline. Eastern didn't give a shit about masks. AA was Nazi about it. The WHOLE TRIP.
13   joshuatrio   ignore (0)   2020 Aug 11, 10:45am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

KgK one says
Is it time to buy airlines, buffets fav DAL?


I bought SABR when it was 5.50 a few months ago thinking it would come back pretty quickly. They track airlines/travel to the T for the most part.

I figure this stock will recover 50% from it's low in another month or two and fully in about a year. It's historically averaged $20-22/share.
14   WookieMan   ignore (7)   2020 Aug 11, 11:19am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

joshuatrio says
I figure this stock will recover 50% from it's low in another month or two and fully in about a year. It's historically averaged $20-22/share.

Stock wise travel is a long play. My evidence is anecdotal, but my neighbor is big in Toyota and my wife does regional and national conferences that require air travel. Both are 100% shut down for the year travel wise. I don't know the percentage that business travel makes up, at least for airfare, but 2020 is dead. Q2 is an obvious loss and I think Q3 is even before it ends. Airlines will be lucky to make any money by Q4. I think there are going to be a lot of Karen's that refuse to travel until there is a vaccine as well. You can do well in airline stocks, but make sure the balance sheet can handle Q3-4 at significant losses.

That said, people that enjoy travel but prefer international, may end up sinking some good money into domestic travel the next 16 months or so. Or at least the Caribbean, Mexico, Cayman, Bahamas, etc. People that haven't lost jobs and make the same as pre-covid have had little to spend it on. Can't make up for the last six months, but there's pent up demand. We booked our October trip to the Westin St. John about 2 months ago for $2,200 for 5 of us. My wife just said it's something like $4,200 for the same dates and room now.

This is all probably why many of the blue states are calling for lockdowns again. With zero evidence to back it up. The extra UE benefits are over. Good luck keeping this shit shut down much longer. I was skeptical about a rebound, but rates jumping almost double for our hotel is rather amazing in 60 days.
15   Ceffer   ignore (6)   2020 Aug 11, 11:22am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Do they have any SOROS logo'd baseball caps, for safe passage through American airports?
16   joshuatrio   ignore (0)   2020 Aug 17, 5:43am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

8/16/2020 862,949
8/9/2020 831,789
8/2/2020 799,861
7/26/2020 751,205
7/19/2020 747,422
7/12/2020 754,545
7/5/2020 732,123
6/28/2020 633,810
6/21/2020 590,456

Still going up.
17   WookieMan   ignore (7)   2020 Aug 17, 8:24am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

joshuatrio says
Still going up.

Good. Need PR to stop their BS testing of incoming visitors next. Although if I don't feel better by this afternoon or tomorrow, I've come down with something. Not sure if it's rona but I feel like manageable shit. Gonna take it easy today and see.

So sick of being shamed about traveling and even friends saying we shouldn't be doing it for leisure only for work or necessary activities. My mental health likes travel, so it's fucking essential.
18   joshuatrio   ignore (0)   2020 Aug 17, 9:46am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

WookieMan says

Good. Need PR to stop their BS testing of incoming visitors next. Although if I don't feel better by this afternoon or tomorrow, I've come down with something. Not sure if it's rona but I feel like manageable shit. Gonna take it easy today and see.

So sick of being shamed about traveling and even friends saying we shouldn't be doing it for leisure only for work or necessary activities. My mental health likes travel, so it's fucking essential.


Agree, I was looking at going to some of the islands as well and a lot of them have mandatory 2 week gov't quarantine. Insanity.

Hope you feel better. My 12 y/o son came down with a non-stop cough, but the rest of the fam is ok. No fever though.
19   WookieMan   ignore (7)   2020 Aug 17, 10:30am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

joshuatrio says
Agree, I was looking at going to some of the islands as well and a lot of them have mandatory 2 week gov't quarantine. Insanity.

St Thomas and John just shut down to non-essential activities until the end of the month now. So have to have government permission to enter either..... The fuck? I don't go until mid/late October, but this shit can just stop at this point. If I wear a mask, wash my hands and socially distance I thought I was supposed to be safe? Which is it? These goal posts have moved off the god damn football field at this point.

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