patrick.net

Just a guess, but, E) Nunca

:
If we get just a small increase when things are open, it won't be considered much of a "second wave." The longer we waited, the better the chances are of this outcome. It's certainly what I'm hoping for.

I have no idea what would be considered significant though. Georgia and Texas will be telling, but I have to believe California will have more of a relapse than either of those, becasue of LA, and San Fran.

Still, it would be great if it wasn't large enough to be considered significant. I'll say mild enough uptick in the summer to not cause panic, but borderline high enough to cause some told you sos in California.

And then recurrence in late fall and in to winter, but again not close to enough to shut things down. Let's hope anyway. Hopefully we'll know more then about immunity due to antibodies etc, and with better testing, they should be able to figure out better how to protect, for example nursing homes. Better more proven treatments / therapies for the bad cases would make a difference too.

Come on America ! There must be an upside to all the money we spend on health care !

marcus says

Come on America ! There must be an upside to all the money we spend on health care !

Healthcare? Or insurance?

marcus says

I have to believe California will have more of a relapse than either of those, becasue of LA, and San Fran.

There wasn't even a first wave in SF, they stand at less than 2000 confirmed cases and 35 (co-)deaths after at least 6 months of exposure, this in a county of a million residents. There has never been any wave in SF. Open up now!

E

E, never

marcus says

Come on America ! There must be an upside to all the money we spend on health care !

There must be an upside to all the money we spend on education relative to Europe for mediocre results!

D

It will be around likely for a while everywhere. I guess it depends on what the definition of a 2nd wave is. I don't see there being a chance that deaths get remotely worse than this first wave. We'll see an uptick during your normal flu season. On paper though, this is less deadly in probably 80-90% of the population, even those that are unhealthy, than the flu which has a vaccine. When a vaccine is made, this will just be part of the cocktail of flu vaccines and someone will make a shitload of money off of it even though there's less than 0.5% of a chance you'd die from it unvaccinated at this point.

E Never.

D. Every winter we go through different strains. This will be new addition to the collection. More important question is how strong will be herd immunity. I bet Sweden will forget about Covid19 faster then the rest.

Those who say never, please read up on the 1918 influenza.

Yes, they knew about Social Distancing, etc. Just like nowadays, the lockdowns/shutdowns/shelters-in-place were uneven across the US. Some places got hammered, other places like Phoenix with a strict lockdown relatively spared.

The influenza started in rural Kansas near an army base where troops were mustering to be shipped out to the war in Europe. It did not originate in Spain, nor China. Shiploads of troops brought it to the rest of the US, Europe and the world

As bad and deadly as the wave in early 1918 was, it began to subside before a much deadlier second wave began in about August. The virus had sufficiently mutated by then so that folks who recovered from the first wave did not necessarily have immunity to the second wave (some were apparently immune, others got sick again). A third wave went through the world in early 1919. Wilson and one of his aides got sick from it at the Versailles Conference. Wilson recovered, but the aide died. The aide had got sick from the first and second waves, killed by the third.

The ever-smug SF Bay Area, even smug back then, gave itself a pat on the back for being relatively spared after the early waves due to its strict measures to prevent the spread. Loosened up and then got hammered in the subsequent wave.

B.A.C.A.H. says

The ever-smug SF Bay Area, even smug back then, gave itself a pat on the back for being relatively spared after the early waves due to its strict measures to prevent the spread. Loosened up and then got hammered in the subsequent wave.

Interesting.

Do you have a source?

B.A.C.A.H. says

Those who say never, please read up on the 1918 influenza.

Not saying you can or cannot be right with your comment, but modern medicine is substantially different than 1918-1919. We cannot really compare. Modern hygiene itself is vastly better at preventing transmission of viruses.

The reality is this could actually be worse than the Spanish flu and we'd have no clue because we're just better at treating it and preventing it. For fucks sake we started performing lobotomy's in/around 1935, almost 20 years after the Spanish flu. Medicine has changed exponentially since that time. And in 2120, we're probably going to look like barbarians for what we're doing now.

There's not much evidence of a massive 2nd outbreak. Fauci said as much during that Senate hearing yesterday, while still trying to instill fear into everyone that there could be pockets with spikes in deaths/cases. No shit Sherlock. It's a virus. We could save 100k lives a year by focusing this much attention on quitting smoking. 100k year over year, not just a one off virus that's likely really only knocked off 40k people if causes of death were realistic in the US.

Never.

B.A.C.A.H. says

Those who say never, please read up on the 1918 influenza.

Yes, they knew about Social Distancing, etc. Just like nowadays, the lockdowns/shutdowns/shelters-in-place were uneven across the US. Some places got hammered, other places like Phoenix with a strict lockdown relatively spared.

The influenza started in rural Kansas near an army base where troops were mustering to be shipped out to the war in Europe. It did not originate in Spain, nor China. Shiploads of troops brought it to the rest of the US, Europe and the world

As bad and deadly as the wave in early 1918 was, it began to subside before a much deadlier second wave began in about August. The virus had sufficiently mutated by then so that folks who recovered from the first wave did not necessarily have immunity to the second wave (some were apparently immune, others got sick again). A third wave went through the world in early 1919. Wilson and one of his aides got sick from it at the Versailles Conf...

The difference is that the at risk groups are very different.

Onvacation says

Do you have a source?

And yes, I read the book.

http://www.johnmbarry.com/

Did any of you guys listen to governor today when reporter ask why isn't the virus being tracked in the LGBT community. He gave a long winded gay pandering reply. Why does extra effort need to be put into wasting O2 on such stupid shit.

Gays couples can never have children of their own because of the nature of all vertebrate sexuality. Biology makes no exceptions to the rule that one male and one female are required.

Thus, gays save a ton of money: two breadwinners, no childcare expenses. Sometimes gays adopt, or one partner has a child with someone of the opposite sex, but more frequently not.

The media is also very heavily gay. https://www.advocate.com/politics/media/2014/09/16/50-most-influential-lgbt-people-media

Gays are a very rich and influential demographic. So the governor panders to them. Especially in California.

B.A.C.A.H. says

And yes, I read the book.

This is why I continue to haunt pat.net. I see that Barry also wrote a book on Roger Williams, which I will have to read (if the libraries ever re-open). Thank you BACAH for link (and scaring the hell out of me with the story of President Wilson's aide. Yikes!)

Patrick says

Sometimes gays adopt, or one partner has a child with someone of the opposite sex,

The child is a prop to sustain their hip bona fides

Everyone ready for Outside Lands 2020 in Golden Gate Park (Aug. 7-9)?

I guess I should participate in my own poll.
C) Fall
I'm guessing it ramps up in time for the election. Should be fun.

D) Winter, along with the regular flu season. Though some will probably exaggerate stats mid-October to force a "social distancing" election day. Vote-by-mail, or other proxy, to save grandma (what could possibly go wrong?)

If we had prophylactic hydroxychloroquine like every other developed nation (barring NW Europe), the answer should be E, Never.

Watch them say the riots ruined their beautiful and enlightened social distancing policies, and they now must be extended until election day.

Patrick says

Biology makes no exceptions to the rule that one male and one female are required.

Some may find this divisive.

I don't agree with them, but does that mean their opinion of what's divisive is worth less than yours and mine ?

I like the idea of increasing the amount of civil discourse on the forum, but not in an absolute way. And I don't think the divisive thing will work. But I won't keep harping on it. And I'll try not to say I told you so more than one time.

marcus says

Patrick says

Biology makes no exceptions to the rule that one male and one female are required.

Some may find this divisive.

I don't agree with them, but does that mean their opinion of what's divisive is worth less than yours and mine ?

I like the idea of increasing the amount of civil discourse on the forum, but not in an absolute way. And I don't think the divisive thing will work. But I won't keep harping on it. And I'll try not to say I told you so more than one time.

Yes their opinion is worth less if anything cause it's negating science. There's nothing divisive by stating scientific facts. It just is.

Yes, but we're in the world of alternative facts. Where for example increasing the debt by 1 trillion in a year (talking before this year) to get a slightly stronger economy and a lot of money for the wealthy is a good thing.

Many of my opinions are totally fact based., but you choose different facts, just like those people who disagree with both you and I do about gender.

Alternative facts baby, that's a term that came from the Trump camp. People don't agree on facts any more. Can you say climate change ?

marcus says

People don't agree on facts any more. Can you say climate change ?

What fact about climate change? One theory of climate change is sea level rise. Where has even that happened with any statistical importance? It cannot be fact if one of the main pillars of the theory is already provably wrong.

There are tides, but if someone visits or lives in an area for decades, the evidence is obvious. NYC, Southern FL, NOLA, etc. were all supposed to be underwater at this point based on "facts." And don't conflate what I'm saying, with me saying man isn't damaging the planet. We are. But a major part of the climate change fear factor was sea level rise and massive loss of property and life. That simply hasn't happened and there's no evidence that it is happening.

So no, climate change is indeed not a fact. Moving the goal post and having the "scientist" rename something after they got it wrong is complete bull shit. Sea level rise was the main pillar of the theory. Then it moved to getting wet bulbed and high temperatures. Melting ice caps. Now it's dead polar bears making it fact or some other BS. WTF is the actual fact in climate change?