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Sweden wins by staying open


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2020 Apr 20, 9:49pm   2,366 views  64 comments

by Patrick   ➕follow (55)   💰tip   ignore  

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/the-swedish-experiment-looks-like-it-s-paying-off

20 April 2020, 2:37pm

Two weeks ago, I wrote about ‘The Swedish experiment’ in The Spectator. As the world went into lockdown, Sweden opted for a different approach to tackling coronavirus: cities, schools and restaurants have remained open. This was judged by critics to be utterly foolish: it would allow the virus to spread much faster than elsewhere, we were told, leading to tens of thousands of deaths. Hospitals would become like warzones. As Sweden was two weeks behind the UK on the epidemic curve, most British experts said we’d pay the price for our approach when we were at the peak. Come back in two weeks, I was told. Let's see what you're saying then. So here I am.

I'm happy to say that those fears haven’t materialised. But the pressure on Sweden to change tack hasn’t gone away. We haven't u-turned. We’re careful, staying inside a lot more. But schools and shops remain open. Unlike some countries on the continent, no one is asking for ‘our papers’ when we move around in cities. The police don’t stop us and ask why we are spending so much time outdoors: authorities rather encourage it. No one is prying in shopping baskets to make sure you only buy essentials.

The country’s Public Health Agency and the ‘state epidemiologist’, Anders Tegnell, have kept their cool and still don’t recommend a lockdown. They are getting criticised by scientific modellers but the agency is sticking to its own model of how the virus is expected to develop and what pressure hospitals will be under. The government still heeds the agency’s advice; no party in the opposition argues for a lockdown. Rather, opinion polls show that Swedes remain strongly in favour of the country’s liberal approach to the pandemic.

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41   CBOEtrader   2020 May 28, 1:37pm  

thomasdong1776 says
As of May 19, Sweden had more coronavirus deaths per capita than any other country in Europe, according to the Financial Times.


https://www.statista.com/statistics/1104709/coronavirus-deaths-worldwide-per-million-inhabitants/

Your stats are lies. Sweden is smack in the middle of European averages.
42   WookieMan   2020 May 28, 1:39pm  

rd6B says
Also, I'd better trust Norway health chief than random Patnet commentators who have shown some lack of scientific knowledge:

Actually some Patnet commenters have been pretty spot on in comparison to the experts. As of now this is more of a math equation than a health one. Therapeutics and vaccines will be part of this in the future, but it's simply a numbers game right now until those come on line.

Cases in those 60 and under, for the most part, are completely inconsequential with a small percentage getting hospitalized and a massively smaller percentage dying. That's like 2/3rd's of humans on the planet. When we get to that final 1/3 demographic, even the cases are generally not that big of a deal. We know the sector we need to protect and it's an easy enough thing to do. And that's where the resources should be put instead of taking away everyone's livelihood and support completely unproductive people for the most part.

I'm finally in a good mood. Just got the email that local restaurants are going to be opening up. Al fresco style, but I'll fucking take it. Might be kind of fun, they're shutting down a block to allow for outside eating in the middle of the street. Sidewalks are too narrow. Could make for some fun nights since I can walk to my small downtown.
43   Bd6r   2020 May 28, 1:56pm  

WookieMan says
Actually some Patnet commenters have been pretty spot on in comparison to the experts.

not the ones who advocate permanent shutdowns and praise the glory of progressive governors
44   mell   2020 May 28, 2:31pm  

thomasdong1776 says
As of May 19, Sweden had more coronavirus deaths per capita than any other country in Europe, according to the Financial Times. Sweden’s death rate soared well above the neighboring Scandinavian countries that mandated their people stay at home: While Sweden has more than 3,300 excess deaths—a figure calculated comparing the number of deaths during the same time frame last year—Denmark had 300, while Norway and Finland had fewer than 100 each, according to the New York Times. Iceland’s death toll after its lockdown has been an impressive 11 times lower than the current figures in Sweden. These numbers make it clear: Sweden’s risky bet on keeping their economy open—placing its faith on the concept of herd immunity—wasn’t worth the hand.

https://www.ft.com/content/46733256-5a84-4429-89e0-8cce9d4095e4


Once again infections and thus deaths are mostly a function of population density and age/comorbidites, so let's see what we have here: Sweden 24/km^2, Iceland: 3/km^2. Icelands death toll 11 x lower than Sweden. Notice a pattern here? Oh let's look at avg. age as well. Iceland 36, Sweden: 42. FFS when will leftoid politcians and the lamestream media admit they were wrong on all counts wrt the lockdowns. Open up now!
45   MisdemeanorRebel   2020 May 28, 5:33pm  

50% of all US Cases happened in LTC Facilities, though occupants are only 1.5% of the US Population.
46   Bd6r   2020 May 28, 5:53pm  

NoCoupForYou says
50% of all US Cases happened in LTC Facilities, though occupants are only 1.5% of the US Population.

this clearly shows that ORANGEMAN BAD, HATES SENIOR CITIZENS
47   Patrick   2020 May 28, 6:09pm  

rd6B says
WookieMan says
Actually some Patnet commenters have been pretty spot on in comparison to the experts.

not the ones who advocate permanent shutdowns and praise the glory of progressive governors


Well, I don't censor anything that isn't personally attacking the other users, or illegal for good reasons.

If they make things illegal because they are "offensive" then I will go down with this site. Fuck that. First Amendment forever!
48   Patrick   2020 Jun 8, 8:32am  

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-sweden-mortality/sweden-records-first-week-with-no-excess-mortality-since-pandemic-struck-idUSKBN23F1WK?utm_source=reddit.com

STOCKHOLM (Reuters) - Sweden last week recorded no excess mortality compared to the average of the past five years for the first time since COVID-19 struck a country whose death toll in the pandemic has eclipsed that of its neighbours, statistics showed on Monday. ...

The agency said the only demographic with excess mortality in Sweden last week were people aged 90 and above. ...

Unlike most other countries in western Europe, Sweden opted against a full lockdown, keeping most schools and nearly all businesses open while seeking to leverage mostly voluntary restrictions and recommendations on social distancing.
49   rdm   2020 Jun 8, 8:55am  

NoCoupForYou says
50% of all US Cases happened in LTC Facilities, though occupants are only 1.5% of the US Population.


Deaths maybe, but cases I seriously doubt that
50   rdm   2020 Jun 8, 9:08am  

Personally I hope that Sweden is/was right but its not at all clear that they were/are. here is the other side.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/williamhaseltine/2020/06/04/a-warning-from-sweden/#73f8f1fc4c56
A Warning From Sweden’s Coronavirus Response
William A. Haseltine

The answer is simple. Sweden was lax in its implementation of protective measures in the face of the outbreak, refusing to implement broad stay at home orders for residents, or to enforce recommendations to wear masks or social distancing measures. Other than the government decision to shut down universities and high schools, compliance to public health recommendations was entirely voluntary.

Early on, my Swedish friends seemed proud of their exceptionalism. They sent many of their children to school without many of the protections that are both in place and under consideration in many other countries. Outside the country, many voiced their praise of Sweden’s “common sense” approach, which they wagered would be less economically destructive than stricter measures and would not lead to any greater number of deaths.

They were wrong. Even the chief architect of the Swedish anti-coronavirus plan is able to admit it. In an interview translated by Reuters, Sweden’s chief epidemiologist told Swedish radio that the country clearly could have done better in fighting the virus and that there was “quite obviously a potential for improvement in what we have done.” In particular, he said Sweden should have started testing earlier and more extensively and they should have done more to protect older adults in Sweden’s long term care centers, where more than half of all Sweden’s coronavirus-deaths have occurred.

For all the loss Swedes have endured, there has been no associated economic gain, which is what many claimed was the saving grace of the Swedish approach. According to the European Commission, Sweden’s economic forecast of a 6% reduction in GDP for 2020 is on par with its neighbors, Norway and Denmark who implemented much stricter lockdown measures.

Sweden’s story is a lesson for all of us around what happens when we pull back on social distancing and prudent epidemic control measures. Here in the United States, our epidemic control measures were already relatively relaxed, accounting for our near steady rate of about 20,000 newly diagnosed Covid-19 cases per day for more than two months.

The data from Sweden tells us what is likely to happen next—an ever-accelerating increase in the rate of infection followed by a rising death toll. That, in turn, is very likely to be followed by continued restrictions on public gatherings, school openings, and public confidence in our government’s ability to protect us.

With Operation Warp Speed, one can’t help but wonder if perhaps the plan is to pin all hopes on a vaccine rather than use the public health tools we know can work to control the pandemic. If that is the case, we should be aware that our hope in a vaccine is far brighter than preliminary public data suggests it should be. The current generation of vaccines are likely to offer only partial protection, and likely only to some of us not all. With the new vaccines will come new risks, and unknown safety profiles.

As we contemplate easing public health measures even further thanks to unfounded hope in a vaccine, I ask each of us to contemplate whether the Swedish example is showing us what we will be risking with this approach—our lives, our economy, and our children.
51   mell   2020 Jun 8, 9:21am  

You can't "fight" a virus. You can only try and limit the number of people exposed to it at any given time. When the cost of doing that outweighs the benefits it's time to forget about it and let nature run its course. That's why Sweden was right, the amount of people dying and economically destroyed from the lockdown response is far greater that then potential lives saved.
52   clambo   2020 Jun 8, 10:42am  

I’m probably repeating Mell.

The total number of dead per 100,000 may eventually be the same in most countries since respiratory diseases spread easily (compared to AIDS for example).

Slowing the spread of any disease is a good idea until it disrupts society so much that the cure is worse than the disease.

The creation of a vaccine could interrupt the spread significantly so it is possible that where it’s used the spread is very slow.

Watching the reaction from the usual idiots, it’s clear that there’s a political component to some reaction to the “pandemic” which largely left healthy young people unscathed.

I’m cautious because I am borderline geezer and higher risk.

Maybe I will wear a mask on airplanes forever, I don’t know.
53   WookieMan   2020 Jun 8, 10:42am  

rdm says
NoCoupForYou says
50% of all US Cases happened in LTC Facilities, though occupants are only 1.5% of the US Population.


Deaths maybe, but cases I seriously doubt that

WTF is with the focus on cases?? Everyone fucking gets sick. If you don't die, who gives a shit? I don't get this. If 7B people get sick and only 1k die, who in the flying fuck cares???? Stop with the new case stuff. It doesn't matter.
54   HeadSet   2020 Jun 8, 10:44am  

WTF is with the focus on cases??

Because that is all they got.
55   WookieMan   2020 Jun 8, 10:56am  

HeadSet says
WTF is with the focus on cases??

Because that is all they got.

I understand what you're saying, but WTF do they got/have? We have a no vaccine virus that kills double the people that the flu does. So people get flu like symptoms and they don't die generally. Are there people out there that fucking dumb to not see the data? I know there's propaganda, but this is just getting batshit crazy at this point.

With each day that I get older, I realize that almost everyone is dumb as fuck. If you have a brain and can use it, you'd know this virus is a complete nothing burger. People can take their phased openings and masks shove them up their fucking ass. Sorry, I'm back in IL and it pisses me off after living normal for the last 3 days up in Wisconsin. I was supposed to be in Mexico right now, so I'm even more pissed than usual, lol.
56   Ceffer   2020 Jun 8, 11:02am  

WookieMan says
With each day that I get older, I realize that almost everyone is dumb as fuck. If you have a brain and can use it, you'd know this virus is a complete nothing burger. People can take their phased openings and masks shove them up their fucking ass. Sorry, I'm back in IL and it pisses me off after living normal for the last 3 days up in Wisconsin. I was supposed to be in Mexico right now, so I'm even more pissed than usual, lol.

Now, tell us what you really think.
57   Ceffer   2020 Jun 8, 11:23am  

Do Swedes always get blond hair on their palms when they masturbate?
58   HeadSet   2020 Jun 8, 11:52am  

Ceffer says
Do Swedes always get blond hair on their palms when they masturbate?


Nah, those are just strands of fiber that remain from "the glove."
59   socal2   2020 Jun 11, 12:31pm  

AnyKey says
For all the loss Swedes have endured, there has been no associated economic gain,


Sweden still did better than many countries and US states that had hard lockdowns like the UK, Italy, New York and Spain,

And of course Sweden's economy was going to take a hit when basically the entire world panicked and locked down.

But I bet the Swedes didn't suffer the indignity of not being able to attend funerals, weddings, school, graduations, camps and many other social functions that were deprived of us in the United States. Can you put an economic price of not being able to attend the funeral of a loved one or having your wedding cancelled?

And if we are to believe ANYTHING about the reported contagious level of Wuhan AIDS, Sweden logically has to be much farther along in herd immunity than the rest of the planet and will benefit in the Fall.
60   Ceffer   2020 Jun 11, 2:27pm  

The only thing that keep Swedes for apologizing for EVERYTHING is suicide. It's become their usual and customary gesture, means nothing. They probably apologize for apologizing.
61   WookieMan   2020 Jun 11, 3:24pm  

AnyKey says
They sent many of their children to school without many of the protections that are both in place and under consideration in many other countries.

And this is one realm in which they did well. I don't think anyone has an understanding of what keeping kids out of school for 5+ months is going to have on development. The immediate GDP numbers mean dick. There's a generation of humans that are going to be fucked up. Especially our black friends that have shit family structure. But hey, a few extra granny's died a few months early so Sweden is dumb...
62   mell   2020 Jun 11, 6:29pm  

So 0.5% of Sweden:s population caught CV and 0.05% died now that the worst is over. So the avg risk is 1 in 200 to catch it and 1 in 2000 to die from it, and the current growth rate is 0.5%. Those are great odds if you get to keep your economy open and the country from falling into a depression. A pandemic happens once every few decades. What the fuck is the problem here? Sweden indeed wins by staying open.
63   WookieMan   2020 Jun 11, 7:56pm  

Duck.
64   Patrick   2020 Jun 12, 8:08am  

AnyKey says
Sweden wins by staying open ?


Absolutely!

Sweden did the right thing by staying open. Much easier on their population financially and in mental health terms. And their death curve is the same as any country that shut down:



Every other country made a whopping huge mistake by killing their economies for no good reason.

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