patrick.net

That’s every disease. There is never 100% of anything.

That's exactly the problem. While the total covid cases are underreported, the deaths due to covid vastly over reported. They should only report those tested positive. If untested cause is unknown. Basic principles of statistics, if you violate these your stats are worth shit. I'm surprised they key this happen. But maybe because orange!man! bad!.exe.

It's a problem of numerator and denominator. The death numerator is soiled by false attributions, false positives, and outright lies promoted by fake news. The denominator is likewise grossly underestimated because they have no concrete knowledge about how many people have been infected by the actual Covid-19, but had no symptoms or recovered uneventfully.

Politicians and the so called health leaders refuse to simply say "We don't know" so they manipulate or monitor the public perception, or invidiously promote panic.

Proper immunologic studies on the general population have not been conducted to get a proper numerator/denominator ratio. An appropriate immunologic test has just been available April 1, but also needs to be tested for reliability before choosing sample populations.

After all the political footballs have been punted, ulterior motives served, and the real stats come out, the misattributions corrected, and the panic fake news stats removed, the true death percentages will likely be pretty low.

The usual fake news suspects continue to mislead grossly that young people are susceptible by touting spectacular cases, but anybody younger than 50 in good general health clearly have nothing to worry about.

He was driving his car, and had a corona coughing fit, causing him to run a red light. Killing himself and another...
Boom, two more corona deaths.

APOCALYPSEFUCKisShostakovitch says

Pink foam gushing from a quivering corpse's nose and mouth is evidence of TDS!

White foam is another racist dying a well deserved death.

mell says

That's exactly the problem. While the total covid cases are underreported, the deaths due to covid vastly over reported. They should only report those tested positive.

Bergamo, IT: red - all deaths, green - tested positive, blue - average for 2015-19.



So even though it's entirely possible to overreport COVID deaths, it's not that easy to overreport all deaths.

TEOTWAWKI says

mell says

That's exactly the problem. While the total covid cases are underreported, the deaths due to covid vastly over reported. They should only report those tested positive.

Bergamo: red - all deaths, green - tested positive, blue - average for 2015-19.

I have no doubt that a highly contagious cold or flu can quickly wipe out many elderly, but that doesn't say much about its death rate for the whole population. Especially if the real infection rate is much higher due to up to 80% asymptomatic cases and including people who died of cold and flu with similar symptoms. IMO it's mathematically highly incorrect by the CDC to allow presumed cases to count.

mell says

I have no doubt that a highly contagious cold or flu can quickly wipe out many elderly, but that doesn't say much about its death rate for the whole population. Especially if the real infection rate is much higher due to up to 80% asymptomatic cases and including people who died of cold and flu with similar symptoms. IMO it's mathematically highly incorrect by the CDC to allow presumed cases to count.

Death is death no matter how you "attribute" it. Can't neither hide nor inflate death numbers in the US (or Italy). If there is a big spike of deaths relative to your "average" year it means that there is some new variable added to the equation which wasn't here before. So far the only known new variable is that fucking Chinese virus.

Ceffer says

It's a problem of numerator and denominator.

Another excellent analysis from Ceffer.


Ceffer says

After all the political footballs have been punted, ulterior motives served, and the real stats come out, the misattributions corrected, and the panic fake news stats removed, the true death percentages will likely be pretty low.

And the media will have moved on to the next crisis, never to be held accountable.

APOCALYPSEFUCKisShostakovitch says

Pink foam gushing from a quivering corpse's nose and mouth is evidence of TDS!

More truth from our most liked yet least unignored prophet.

:
mell says

the deaths due to covid vastly over reported.

Doctors have no incentive to call it as Covid 19. I believe a fair assumption would be that doctors are just as likely to falsely identify it as not CV ans they are to falsely say it is.

marcus says

:
mell says

the deaths due to covid vastly over reported.

Doctors have no incentive to call it as Covid 19. I believe a fair assumption would be that doctors are just as likely to falsely identify it as not CV ans they are to falsely say it is.

Marcus is right (note it’s NOT April 1st).

TBH the stupid conspiracy theories being posted here are as bad as the nut jobs scared that OMG CORONA GONNA KILLS US ALL!

That said, if the shutdown lasts beyond May, I’ll be joining all the conspiracy theorists.

CovfefeButDeadly says

marcus says

:
mell says

the deaths due to covid vastly over reported.

Doctors have no incentive to call it as Covid 19. I believe a fair assumption would be that doctors are just as likely to falsely identify it as not CV ans they are to falsely say it is.

Marcus is right (note it’s NOT April 1st).

TBH the stupid conspiracy theories being posted here are as bad as the nut jobs scared that OMG CORONA GONNA KILLS US ALL!

That said, if the shutdown lasts beyond May, I’ll be joining all the conspiracy theorists.

No he's wrong. The issue is that presumed cases should NEVER count otherwise they falsify any mathematically sounds statistic. It doesn't matter whether you believe MDs are over or under-reporting CV cases, you can throw the statistic into the mathematical toilet as soon as you go by presumptions vs confirmed data points. That being said, most stats are not mathematically sounds, esp. in health care. You read a new report about red meat being bad or xyz being good for you chances are high that the cited statistic / study has enough mathematical errors to immediately discredit it. Now the same can be said for the effectiveness of chloroquine if based on anecdotal evidence. However in an emergency it is ok to relax statistical requirements wrt timelines for practical reasons, but it is never ok to falsify a statistic with presumptions, esp. if it can cause fear, uncertainty and panic. Worse they don't exclude people with underlying health conditions that didn't have a large remaining life expectancy to begin with. This has nothing to do with conspiracy theories but rather whether you want to practice math or belief systems.

marcus says

:
mell says

the deaths due to covid vastly over reported.

Doctors have no incentive to call it as Covid 19. I believe a fair assumption would be that doctors are just as likely to falsely identify it as not CV ans they are to falsely say it is.

As a math teacher you should know that this "assumption" or "belief" doesn't matter to the math at hand, it immediately invalidates the statistic.

mell says

As a math teacher you should know that this "assumption" or "belief" doesn't matter to the math at hand, it immediately invalidates the statistic.

As a commentator, you should know that 99% of the things you assert on this forum are nothing like a mathematical proof and are in fact more like an opinion, whether you say that it's your opinion or not. (i.e. your belief).

But hey, if that's your best attempt at saying why I'm wrong, then it means you you couldn't think of a reason why doctors would be more likely to falsely identify CV as the cause of death than to falsely identify it as not the cause of death. And that is, in fact, pure logic.


Furthermore what you said, is actually incorrect, good Math or statistical analyses involves acknowledging your assumptions, although often (at least with abstract Math) people know what your assumptions are without them being explicitly stated each time. You've probably heard of axioms ? Postulates ?

TEOTWAWKI says

If there is a big spike of deaths relative to your "average" year it means that there is some new variable added to the equation which wasn't here before.

According to Candace Owens, the numbers of deaths are actually down... Where is the spike??



https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=3601733746564467&id=1593518174052711

:
She posted that on 3/30 and is probably embarrassed and wishes she could retract by now.


https://www.ny1.com/nyc/all-boroughs/news/2020/04/03/va-hospitals-to-take-in-overflow-patients-from-elmhurst

marcus says

mell says

As a math teacher you should know that this "assumption" or "belief" doesn't matter to the math at hand, it immediately invalidates the statistic.

As a commentator, you should know that 99% of the things you assert on this forum are nothing like a mathematical proof and are in fact more like an opinion, whether you say that it's your opinion or not. (i.e. your belief).

But hey, if that's your best attempt at saying why I'm wrong, then it means you you couldn't think of a reason why doctors would be more likely to falsely identify CV as the cause of death than to falsely identify it as not the cause of death. And that is, in fact, pure logic.


Furthermore what you said, is actually incorrect, good Math or statistical analyses involves acknowledging your assumptions, although often (at least with abstract Math) people know what your assumptions are without them being e...

There a a billion reasons to skew the data towards Covid-19 deaths for MDs, administrators, politicians. Getting more resources, money/funds, protective gear, and simply not being labeled a "skeptic" or down-playing the situation. Or justifying martial-arts style lockdowns. But again to the statistical analysis none of this matters, you need to have proof that a person died of CV otherwise you can throw the analysis into the trash. It's better to have a smaller sample size with factual / verified data than a larger sample size with wild guesses. You know how common pneumonias are? It's irresponsible to label a death Covid-19 if you don't have a positive test result, similar to not acknowledging a death with a positive test result and no significant underlying conditions.

joshuatrio says

According to Candace Owens, the numbers of deaths are actually down... Where is the spike??

I comment on the graphs for Bergamo I've posted above. There is a clear spike there.

PS. Who the fuck is Candace Owens?

TEOTWAWKI says

PS. Who the fuck is Candace Owens?

Founder of Blexit. Super critical thinker.

marcus says

:
She posted that on 3/30 and is probably embarrassed and wishes she could retract by now.


https://www.ny1.com/nyc/all-boroughs/news/2020/04/03/va-hospitals-to-take-in-overflow-patients-from-elmhurst

She was taking about deaths. I have no clue if she is right or wrong, though id guess wrong on this one. Whatever she’s not an expert, do not someone Id even pay much attention to except on political matters.

Either way, I hardly think 3500 deaths in ny state from CV is causing some crazy pile up of bodies.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus

Honestly, fuck the msm yet again.

marcus says

things you assert on this forum are nothing like a mathematical proof

So true!

joshuatrio says

TEOTWAWKI says

PS. Who the fuck is Candace Owens?

Founder of Blexit. Super critical thinker.

Okay.

Soo, what's her take on Bergamo numbers? There is a clear spike in deaths (not just "Covid-attributed deaths") but we must ignore it because why?

So, if we cure Covid, there might still be old people dying from similar symptoms?

TEOTWAWKI says

PS. Who the fuck is Candace Owens?

She's pretty bright.

Malcolm says

So, if we cure Covid, there might still be old people dying from similar symptoms?

If you are talking about Bergamo graph and the discrepancy between the green and red spikes I think it's there because Italian officials only attribute deaths to COVID if there is a certain proof (a test, MRI, etc.). What the "deep thinker Candace Blexit" seems to suggest is that there is no spike in overall deaths and the COVID-attributed deaths numbers are a simple subset of regular number of deaths overall.
Bergamo numbers clearly show it's not the case in Italy. Don't see why it should be different here.

TEOTWAWKI says

If you are talking about Bergamo graph and the discrepancy between the green and red spikes I think it's there because Italian officials only attribute deaths to COVID if there is a certain proof (a test, MRI, etc.). What the "deep thinker Candace Blexit" seems to suggest is that there is no spike in overall deaths and the COVID-attributed deaths numbers are a simple subset of regular number of deaths overall.
Bergamo numbers clearly show it's not the case in Italy. Don't see why it should be different here.

I think I was saying that in a satirical way, but you sound much more knowledgeable. I was jokingly implying that every old person dying today is dying from the virus, from what I was reading here, and I am wondering how they will explain that there is still a death rate of old people dying from pneumonia when this is all over.

mell says

It's irresponsible to label a death Covid-19 if you don't have a positive test result, similar to not acknowledging a death with a positive test result and no significant underlying conditions.

You didn't convince me that this is more likely to happen in one direction than another. WE don't know what type of peer group pressure there is, but we do know that doctors are often conservative, and many pride themselves on integrity, and being honest being honest. Many would test if they didn't know, and otherwise if they couldn't test they would not assume it was CV. Not declaring it CV when it is (but not known), doesn't require lying, where as classifying it as CV when it's not basically does require lying.

Bottom line: You didn't come close to convincing me.

marcus says

She posted that on 3/30 and is probably embarrassed and wishes she could retract by now.


https://www.ny1.com/nyc/all-boroughs/news/2020/04/03/va-hospitals-to-take-in-overflow-patients-from-elmhurst

That doesn't prove that the mortality rate let alone cases reported is accurate. It only proves that they are so coordinated, that the VA is willing to take (Non Covid cases) sick people that are being turned away from (Well documented) empty hospitals that don't have any patients in them, not even Covid victims.

https://twitter.com/AlexBerenson/status/1246762522058919936
1/ Morning folks. Wondering why @CDCgov is using such aggressive rules for death counts? Look - there's considerable evidence #COVID infections have peaked in the US. Even the POTUS comments last night warning about this being the "toughest week" suggest as much (deaths lag)...

2/ And the emerging data out of Florida, Southern California, etc suggest that this virus - like most respiratory viruses - doesn't do well when the weather warms and UV rays get stronger. Great news! Right? Right? Well... we're at under 9,000 deaths now.

3/ Suppose the president is right. And this is the "toughest week." And we average 1,500 deaths a day. That gets us to almost 20,000 deaths by April 12. By then the trend should clearly be down, I don't think it will be arguable...

4/ 20,000 deaths, with perhaps that many more coming over the next month (deaths lag). That's terrible! Yeah. It is. But @CDCgov is estimating 24,000-63,000 flu deaths this year.

5/ No wonder @CDCgov is desperately trying to count every #COVID death. Because when people put those two figures together with what we have done to our economy, our kids, and society in the last month...

So as you watch the "toughest week" hysteria, remember what's coming next.

There is no point in watching "covid infected" or even "covid deaths" numbers. The only reliable number to watch is deaths overall. This is the number which is very hard, practically impossible, to fudge in a 1st World country like US, Italy, Spain, etc.

socal2 says

what we have done to our economy, our kids, and society in the last month...

Why should kids even try? If the Covid doesn't get them they only have a dozen years before they die from climate change wetbulb or drowning.

TEOTWAWKI says

There is no point in watching "covid infected" or even "covid deaths" numbers. The only reliable number to watch is deaths overall. This is the number which is very hard, practically impossible, to fudge in a 1st World country like US, Italy, Spain, etc.

Good point.

Got a link to a daily graph of deaths in the US? Hard to find.

marcus says

mell says

It's irresponsible to label a death Covid-19 if you don't have a positive test result, similar to not acknowledging a death with a positive test result and no significant underlying conditions.

You didn't convince me that this is more likely to happen in one direction than another. WE don't know what type of peer group pressure there is, but we do know that doctors are often conservative, and many pride themselves on integrity, and being honest being honest. Many would test if they didn't know, and otherwise if they couldn't test they would not assume it was CV. Not declaring it CV when it is (but not known), doesn't require lying, where as classifying it as CV when it's not basically does require lying.

Bottom line: You didn't come close to convincing me.

https://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=238821

Here's the problem with statistics using "assumptions" rather than actual data. They usually immediately blow out their confidence intervals and are worthless.

Patrick says

Got a link to a daily graph of deaths in the US?

Nope. :(

ThreeBays says

Two cops died of COVID-19 in Florida.

https://www.sun-sentinel.com/coronavirus/fl-ne-coronavirus-broward-sheriff-death-20200404-z2jnvz43ajeh3c6waq7c5dexpm-story.html?outputType=amp

Also two died on the same day in California.

Clear over-counting. I'm sure all four died suddenly of indigestion while infected with COVID-19.

Sounds like one had AIDS. A clear underlying condition from your own article:

The sheriff described Bennett as part of the LGBT community who wanted to find ways for the Sheriff’s Office to better bond with this community.

The other guy had undisclosed health issues:

Palm Beach County Sheriff’s Sgt. Jose Diaz Ayala, 38, had been dealing with other health issues before he was infected with the virus, according to a news release from the Sheriff’s Office.

This isn't earth shattering information based on what we know about the virus. First level is killing weak and then old. It's not complicated. It's likely these people all could have died from the standard flu.